US Government Bailout of $700 for bad mortgages

dwb

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Does This Stop the U.S. Housing dive & Create a Market Turnaround?

Just curious as to what the brilliant minds here at REIN think about this announcement... specifically, does it stop the U.S. home prices from freefalling like it has since 2005?

Also, in case anyone is interested I`ve provided a video link on Cramer`s prediction for a turnaround is.... Love him or hate him, take it for what its worth but Jim Cramer is calling for June 2009 for the U.S. housing turnaround (I believe this was all said before the $700 government bailout):

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/26754253#26754253
 

GarthChapman

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I am certainly no economist but I am reading lots on this, so from that here`s my 2 cents:

There is much more than a housing valuation problem in the USA right now. The sub-prime mortgages is but a small drop in a large bucket of trouble. This includes mortgages (and how they were sliced and diced and re-packaged and sold around the world), hedge funds, mutual funds, derivatives, ABCP`s, MBCP`s, and on and on.

The reality is that no-one knows the total dollar value of all these problems and therefore can`t predict the bottom or the beginning of the turn-around.

If the American investment houses and bankers and politicians come completely clean quickly and remove all this bad debt from the corporations and banks by letting some go bankrupt and taking over others (as they have begun to do) I think this may be largely over in 5+ years.

If they don`t (like the Japanese didn`t) it will take decades. Japan is just slowly coming out of the effects of its relatively minor asset bubble problem - well over 2 decades after the fact - because they did not declare all the bad debts and write them off - they kept them on their balance sheets and all-but seized up their economy.
 

housingrental

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What were the two companies that Cramer was mentioned he had said would fail in a previous interview a week ago?
Any chance you have a link to that?
 

EdRenkema

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QUOTE (GarthChapman @ Sep 22 2008, 03:32 PM) I am certainly no economist but I am reading lots on this, so from that here`s my 2 cents:

There is much more than a housing valuation problem in the USA right now. The sub-prime mortgages is but a small drop in a large bucket of trouble. This includes mortgages (and how they were sliced and diced and re-packaged and sold around the world), hedge funds, mutual funds, derivatives, ABCP`s, MBCP`s, and on and on.

The reality is that no-one knows the total dollar value of all these problems and therefore can`t predict the bottom or the beginning of the turn-around.

If the American investment houses and bankers and politicians come completely clean quickly and remove all this bad debt from the corporations and banks by letting some go bankrupt and taking over others (as they have begun to do) I think this may be largely over in 5+ years.

If they don`t (like the Japanese didn`t) it will take decades. Japan is just slowly coming out of the effects of its relatively minor asset bubble problem - well over 2 decades after the fact - because they did not declare all the bad debts and write them off - they kept them on their balance sheets and all-but seized up their economy.

I will add a comment to your remarks Garth, first one of the largest contributors to the current economic turmoil in the US is the structuring of financial products however the precipitator I believe is the aggressive marketing of credit. Consumers have been and still are on the hook for that debt, many were paying off those debts through refinancing of rapidly appreciating home values. Then the subprime fallout. My feeling is the consumer is what will drive the US economy onwards through this setback on a national level. What bothers me is on a personal level consumers need to understand that their debts need to ultimately be paid. If all people suddenly realized that and focused on saving rather than spending that might be even worse for the economy.
Clearly I`m not an economist.
On a brighter note I was in Danbury Ct. today, shopping at a Walmart and eating at a local restaurant and business was brisk.
 

Thomas Beyer

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QUOTE (EdRenkema @ Sep 22 2008, 09:45 PM)
On a brighter note I was in Danbury Ct. today, shopping at a Walmart and eating at a local restaurant and business was brisk.


While I am in Maui right now, and business is VERY slow ... tourism is way down ..



Due to this bailout and required cash, the $ printing presses will be running at even higher speeds .. and we will have massive inflation going forward .. thus REAL ASSETS (read: gold, oil, income producing real estate, trees, agricultural land ..) will be the beneficiary in the long term .. amidst an economic slow down and US dollar depreciation !!



Likely worldwide we will see a slowdown as the US consumer drives a lot of Chinese or Indian or Canadian factories .. and while this de-coupling of US growth to Asian growth has been reduced over the years it is still sizable !



Banks will deleverage here and in the US with tighter lending environment for all types of credit: car loans, credit cards, mortgages, business loans .. and as money or access to money is required in all businesses incl. real estate we will see a slow-down of value growth or a value price alignment ACROSS THE GLOBE !!



related post on tighter lending issues: http://myreinspace.com/public_forums1/Real_Estate_Discussion/62-6908-More_difficult_lending_environment_.html



and a 2nd post on inflation is here: http://myreinspace.com/rein_members_only/Members-Only_Discussion/81-6621-50_Year_Calgary_House_Price_View.html
 

jarrettvaughan

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I think that it is very ironic that the American system is based on free capitalism which has limited government control, legislature and intervention. There is a strong belief that if the market is left alone, it will run fine. Due to this basic ideology, the economy has destroyed it self and is now looking for Government assistance. Of course, this goes againts the core values of the system.

Does this prove that an economy that has limited control, legislation does not work?
 

housingrental

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Jarrett - But would this be playing out the same if the government hadn`t structured past bail outs? LTCM? And on and on? Markets always have regulation and intervention of one sort or another.
 

wealthyboomer

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QUOTE (jarrettvaughan @ Sep 23 2008, 05:45 AM) I think that it is very ironic that the American system is based on free capitalism which has limited government control, legislature and intervention. There is a strong belief that if the market is left alone, it will run fine. Due to this basic ideology, the economy has destroyed it self and is now looking for Government assistance. Of course, this goes againts the core values of the system.

Does this prove that an economy that has limited control, legislation does not work?

Government-sponsored enterprises Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were able to obtain a monopoly position in the mortgage market, especially the mortgage-backed securities market, because of the advantages bestowed upon them by the federal government.

Laws passed by Congress such as the Community Reinvestment Act required banks to make loans to previously underserved segments of their communities, thus forcing banks to lend to people who normally would be rejected as bad credit risks.

These governmental measures, combined with the Federal Reserve`s loose monetary policy, led to an unsustainable housing boom. The key measure by which the Fed caused this boom was through the manipulation of interest rates, and the open market operations that accompany this lowering.

The boom came about from an increase in the supply of money and not from demand from consumers, the result is malinvestment, a misallocation of resources into sectors in which there is insufficient demand.

n this case, this manifested itself in overbuilding in real estate. When builders realize they have overbuilt and have too many houses to sell, too many apartments to rent, or too much commercial real estate to lease, they seek to recoup as much of their money as possible, even if it means lowering prices drastically.

This lowering of prices brings the economy back into balance, equalizing supply and demand. This economic adjustment means, however that there are some winners -- in this case, those who can again find affordable housing without the need for creative mortgage products, and some losers -- builders and other sectors connected to real estate that suffer setbacks.

The U.S. government doesn`t like this, however, and undertakes measures to keep prices artificially inflated. This was why the Great Depression was as long and drawn out.

The government`s actions encourage moral hazard of the worst sort. Now that the precedent has been set, the likelihood of financial institutions to engage in riskier investment schemes is increased, because they now know that an investment position so overextended as to threaten the stability of the financial system will result in a government bailout and purchase of worthless, illiquid assets.

Read more here: http://tinyurl.com/42y7qy
 

Thomas Beyer

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QUOTE (wealthyboomer @ Sep 24 2008, 01:06 AM)
....



Laws passed by Congress such as the Community Reinvestment Act required banks to make loans to previously underserved segments of their communities, thus forcing banks to lend to people who normally would be rejected as bad credit risks.

...


correct .. a socialistic Clinton initiative started before Bush came to power .. too many folks bought homes that they shouldn;t have .. and too many folks bought houses that were too expensive for their income .. assuming rising values woudl go on forever ..




QUOTE (wealthyboomer @ Sep 24 2008, 01:06 AM)
....

The government's actions encourage moral hazard of the worst sort. Now that the precedent has been set, the likelihood of financial institutions to engage in riskier investment schemes is increased, because they now know that an investment position so overextended as to threaten the stability of the financial system will result in a government bailout and purchase of worthless, illiquid assets.



...




Correct, too .. this $700B bailout is a bad idea ! It will not help the consumer and gets the bad boys off the hook at tax payers expense .. There was a great cartoon in the Calgary Sun today: A titanic like ship sinking .. with many people on board waiting .. and a boat being lowered with 3 guys in it labeled "Bankers and Brokers first"





...





In addition we had rising consumer debt based on perceived wealth called "home equity" .. and in addition to this lose credit their are the CDO's .. collaterized debt obligations and its derivatives .. i.e. the syndication and selling off of mortgages that was common in the US (but never in Canada, btw) ..



in addition accounting rule changes forced the quarterly valuation of these CDO's .. which is very difficult .. and thus many write-offs and uncertainty between banks ..



Hence: a liquidity crisis, i.e. an unwillingness to lend between banks for commercial paper that finances much of economies daily lives: credit card debt, car loans, college loans, business loans, municipal bonds, LOCs for utilities ..



The attempt of the $700B bailout is to dislodge this illiquidity .. and it will help temporarily on the banking side .. but much consumer confidence is eroded due to their indebtedness .. and this $700B bailout does nothing for the consumer except raise their taxes .. Thus, it will cause inflation and higher taxes and less government and consumer spending elsewhere .. thus a deep recession in the US, followed by the world .. with perhaps 2-4 years to clear out ..



Lesson for us real estate investors: Buy only what you can afford to hold for 5 or more years .. cash-flow is king .. and you will come out ahead .. but don't expect a quick & easy buck please like we've had the last 3-5 years !!!



related post: http://myreinspace.com/rein_members_only/Coffee_Shop/106-7262-37080-It_happened_once__Could_it_happen_again.html#37080
 

TommyK

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I have only followed the recent US financial crisis. The thing that bothered me the most is how those EXTREMELY HIGH-PAYING CORPORATE CEOs can walk away with multi-million dollars.

Get this, CEO of Washington Mutual is getting paid 18 million dollars for his 3-week employment?!! That is just simply ridiculous.

This 700b bailout basically bails out the Wall Street CEOs. GREAT!!

Tommy
 

Thomas Beyer

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QUOTE (TommyK @ Sep 28 2008, 10:40 PM)
I have only followed the recent US financial crisis. The thing that bothered me the most is how those EXTREMELY HIGH-PAYING CORPORATE CEOs can walk away with multi-million dollars.



Get this, CEO of Washington Mutual is getting paid 18 million dollars for his 3-week employment?!! That is just simply ridiculous.



This 700b bailout basically bails out the Wall Street CEOs. GREAT!!



Tommy


It's not that simple .. short term gain and long term pain ..



Complex problems have simple, easy to understand, wrong answers !



What is the answer to banks tied up in mortgage-backed commercial paper that no one wants to buy ? Only a new market for these assets, which the government is creating with this "bailout". Bailout is probably the wrong word. SOme call it "solution" .. some more cynical call it "rip off" or "corporate welfare" ..



But whose next: airlines ? retail chains ? software companies ? manufacturing companies ? many are ailing ..



Lesson: credit will be tighter and more expensive and the costs to government (read: tax payers) are offset by printing more money, i.e. inflation.



People will save more .. and buy less .. slowing world wide growth .. we'll survive it .. and then thrive again .. but the last 10 years of easy money and easy credit and (too) big houses are over ..



More on inflation here: http://myreinspace.com/rein_members_only/Members-Only_Discussion/81-6621-50_Year_Calgary_House_Price_View.html
 

dwb

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QUOTE (thomasbeyer2000 @ Sep 28 2008, 11:49 PM) Lesson: credit will be tighter and more expensive and the costs to government (read: tax payers) are offset by printing more money, i.e. inflation.

What I find interesting is that since real estate is a tangible commodity, house prices historically has always benefits from higher inflation.

But real estate was the culprit behind all this mess... so is this one of those extremely rare instances where we will have higher inflation, but real estate prices won`t participate?

The belief is, when there is too much excess cash chasing too few hard asset choices, those hard assets rise in value. All that extra cash gets mopped up into hard assets. Real estate is also considered a "hard asset"...

Interesting times.
 

DonCampbell

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So far the bail-out has been rejected by Congress... as they turn it into a POLITICAL football and NEGATIVELY affect their constituents.

Isn`t it sad that they created the legislation that let the mess get created and now they are trying to position themselves as the big saviours. I find it angering that one group of people would use other groups for their own gain.

We`ll keep an eye on it, but you know that a bail-out is coming... it is just that they wanted to play brinkmanship first.
 

ChrisDavies

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QUOTE (DonCampbell @ Sep 29 2008, 12:20 PM) We`ll keep an eye on it, but you know that a bail-out is coming... it is just that they wanted to play brinkmanship first.

Too bad they don`t care about the impact they`re having on world markets...
 

PeterAugustin

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Sooo - the big question is how does this affect us here in Alberta? I only care about the US to the point that it affects me. If they want to play the Wild West and American dream card all the time, then it is not surprising that they are bound to fall once in a while (or crash as the case may be).

Any insights on the Alberta ramifications would be appreciated.
 

Thomas Beyer

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QUOTE (PeterAugustin @ Sep 29 2008, 01:51 PM) Sooo - the big question is how does this affect us here in Alberta? I only care about the US to the point that it affects me. If they want to play the Wild West and American dream card all the time, then it is not surprising that they are bound to fall once in a while (or crash as the case may be).

Any insights on the Alberta ramifications would be appreciated.
worldwide recession due to slowing US consumer spending means: less worldwide product and thus, oil demand .. i.e. lower oil prices .. i.e. slowing yet still healthy economy ..plus tighter credit and more expensive mortgages .. better here in AB than elsewhere .. but overall SLOW for a few years !!!
 

YehoramShenhar

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I wonder what would happened if the Chinese and Japanese holders of US government debt would start dumping them in the market - how quickly would the bailout plan pass?
 

MikeMcCrae

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My 2 cents. Buying up 700 billion of bad mortgage instruments when they are very low is a good investment. If you could buy enough stock to move (manipulate) the market would that not be a good buy? In time I see pay back on that money to be huge.Basicly I see this as buying up a whole bunch of forclosure houses and the paper backing them and waiting a few years to resell them and make ginormous profits. Maybe a simplistic view of economics or maybe i`m just plain wrong.
 

wealthyboomer

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QUOTE (MikeMcCrae @ Sep 30 2008, 11:00 AM) My 2 cents. Buying up 700 billion of bad mortgage instruments when they are very low is a good investment. If you could buy enough stock to move (manipulate) the market would that not be a good buy? In time I see pay back on that money to be huge.Basicly I see this as buying up a whole bunch of forclosure houses and the paper backing them and waiting a few years to resell them and make ginormous profits. Maybe a simplistic view of economics or maybe i`m just plain wrong.

If it was that great, why wouldn`t the banks hang onto them for the same reason?
 
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