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September 2013 U.S. Economic Fundamentals

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Obama White House Is on Economic Bubble Alert



President Barack Obama, who took office amid an epic financial collapse, wants to make sure the economic recovery he`s helped engineer doesn`t set the stage for the next bubble. While the president has frequently talked about the need to move beyond what former White House economic adviser Jared Bernstein called a `shampoo economy` (as in lather, rinse, repeat), the topic of overheated markets has moved front and center once again. Obama this month spoke four times in five days of the need to avoid what he called `artificial bubbles,` even though the economy grew at just a 1.7 percent rate in the second quarter and employment and factory usage remain below pre-recession highs. `We have to turn the page on the bubble-and-bust mentality that created this mess,` he said in his Aug. 10 weekly radio address.



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FEMA's New Flood Maps Pressure Homeowners to Raise Their Houses




When Catherine Porthouse bought a home in 2010 in the bayous of Louisiana, she didn`t worry much about the possibility of flood damage. Her house, in the town of Des Allemands, is shielded by marshlands and a levee and had no history of problems. Flood insurance wasn`t required, but she purchased a policy just in case.






In March, Porthouse got a rude surprise. The Federal Emergency Management Agency announced at a town meeting that it had rewritten the state`s flood maps and added her house and hundreds of others to Louisiana`s flood zone. She was told she`ll have to raise her house 8 feet into the air and fill in the space beneath it. If she doesn`t, her yearly flood insurance bill will jump from $388 to $18,000. `I left in tears,` Porthouse says.



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Population Distribution 1900-2060



Reader Druce put together the graphic below of the U.S population distribution, by age, from 1900 through 2060 using a slider. The population data and estimates are from the Census Bureau (actual through 2010 and projections through 2060).



In 1900, the graph was fairly steep, but with improving health care, the graph has flattened out over the last 100 years.



Note: Prior to 1940, the oldest group was 75+. From 1940 through 1985, the oldest group was 85+. Starting in 1990, the oldest group is 100+.



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Rickety housing markets




Mortgage reforms on both sides of the border might stabilize markets, or might not







Business headlines flowed fast this week: Regulatory limits on
government-backed mortgage security issuance kicked in and ruffled
markets in Canada, and President Obama endorsed a Senate bill that would
overturn housing finance mechanisms in the United States.






The U.S. first. The current in the U.S. represents fundamental reform
proposals, in response to the housing bust there that Canada has, so
far, avoided. Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and a flood of other federal
agencies with funny nicknames, lend, insure and securitize trillions of
dollars of home loans, and Congress and the President would like to
change the system before they are overwhelmed again.





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Where Wages Have Grown the Most (and Least) Since the Recovery




Just in time for Labor Day, a recent Gallup poll has given some promising employment news. More than half of American workers say that their income has grown over the last five years, telling Gallup that they are making either a lot (28 percent) or a little (30 percent) more money since the onslaught of the economic crisis.






However, workers' wage growth has been uneven across the country's metros. To chart where wages have grown the most during America's recovery, my Martin Prosperity Institute colleague Charlotta Mellander ran the numbers on average change in wages and salaries for all 350-plus U.S. metros between 2009 and 2012 (the latest year available) based on data from the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics.





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U.S. Plan Eases Rules for Mortgage Lenders




WASHINGTON ` Six federal regulatory agencies released a reworked proposal on Wednesday that would require lenders to maintain a stake in the loans they bundle and sell as securities, part of efforts to limit the type of underwriting practices that fed the housing bubble.






But the proposal also expanded the range of mortgages that would be exempt from the requirement.






The new rules, the latest version of a 2011 proposal, were required under the Dodd-Frank Act of 2010. Mortgages to borrowers who do not have to spend big chunks of their monthly income repaying the debt will be exempt from the requirement.






The regulators` plan would exempt more loans than earlier proposals by eliminating a requirement that so-called qualified residential mortgages include a large down payment.









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America's 'Baby Bust' starts to ease






America's baby bust may be over.


The nation's fertility rate stabilized last year for the first time in five years, according to early data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. That follows four years of big declines during the economic downturn that pushed the rate`the number of births per 1,000 women aged 15 to 44`to the lowest levels on record.





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Introducing the TOWN rental report




NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--TOWN Residential is proud to announce the launch of The TOWN Rental Report, a monthly update which breaks down Manhattan rental data based on apartment size in relation to 12-16 micro-neighborhoods, on a rotating basis, subject to data reliability. TOWN`s goal is to demonstrate current rental asking prices so renters know what to expect in today`s housing market.

`We are committed to providing fully comprehensive and transparent data and information that customers, clients, consumers and industry experts can rely on`



In terms of macro-city trends, the report covers market-wide rental prices, as well as the asking rents for doorman and non-doorman apartments. TOWN`s hope is to display the information readers will find most useful during their search for the perfect home. It is also to inform industry insiders, developers and investors.





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A worrying chart about why Americans are buying houses




I am very much in the camp of people resisting all of the bubble talk ` whether it`s on stocks, housing or what have you.




In the aftermath of two major bubbles in stocks and housing, every time you get some froth in one market or another, a chorus of pundits declare it`s a bubble.





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Housing market could soon sputter




WASHINGTON ` The Federal Reserve could begin withdrawing unconventional life support for the U.S. economy as early as next week. It raises questions anew, especially for the housing sector, about what happens when an era of cheap borrowing costs comes to a close.The Fed meets for two days next week, and its Wednesday statement is expected by many on Wall Street to include the first tapering back of its purchases of $85 billion a month in government and mortgage bonds, underway since December 2012.



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A mortgage market out of balance




The vast system that provides home loans to millions of Americans has long been a strange place. A surprising development has made it even stranger.Recently, interest rates on mortgages for expensive homes have fallen below those for smaller mortgages that the government promises to repay if the borrower defaults.



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Rich in U.S. enjoy full employment, unemployed suffer near-Depression level unemployment




WASHINGTON ` The gap in employment rates between America`s highest- and lowest-income families has stretched to its widest levels since officials began tracking the data a decade ago, according to an analysis of government data conducted for The Associated Press.




Rates of unemployment for the lowest-income families ` those earning less than $20,000 ` have topped 21 per cent, nearly matching the rate for all workers during the 1930s Great Depression.





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Washington drops below Houston in top 10 U.S. economies




The Washington-area economy, hit by falling military spending and the looming fiscal cliff in 2012, dropped to fifth place among U.S. metropolitan areas, the Commerce Department
said Tuesday. The D.C. area now trails Houston, which was buoyed by rising U.S. oil production. The San Francisco area saw the quickest economic growth among top U.S. cities in 2012, at 7.4%.





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U.S Republicans lay out battle plans to defund Obamacare, but debt limit off the table...for now




WASHINGTON ` House GOP leaders Wednesday announced that they will move quickly to raise the government`s borrowing cap by attaching a wish list of GOP priorities like blocking `Obamacare,` forcing construction of the Keystone XL pipeline and setting the stage for reforming the loophole-cluttered tax code.




They also, as expected, promised tea party lawmakers a chance to first use a routine temporary government funding bill to try to muscle the Democratic-controlled Senate into derailing President Barack Obama`s health care law.





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The two Detroits




DETROIT Suppose I told you that most of what you thought you knew about Detroit was wrong, that the city was largely thriving.


`That it has one of the highest job creation rates in the nation, despite taking a serious hit from the near-death and permanent contraction of the domestic auto industry five years ago.




` That most Detroiters are in fact white, that many are affluent, and that there has been very little real population loss.





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