September 2011 U.S. Economic Fundamentals
- Thread starter Ally
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Jobs data an 'ominous sign'
Economists often point to 150,000 new jobs a month as the prerequisite to reducing unemployment in the U.S. That`s 150,000 new positions every month.
Friday`s payroll data for August shows no growth. And for the last four months the gain has been less than 100,000 jobs.
`The stagnation in payroll employment is an ominous sign,` said Paul Ashworth, chief U.S. economist for Capital Economics.
Read the full article here.
Economists often point to 150,000 new jobs a month as the prerequisite to reducing unemployment in the U.S. That`s 150,000 new positions every month.
Friday`s payroll data for August shows no growth. And for the last four months the gain has been less than 100,000 jobs.
`The stagnation in payroll employment is an ominous sign,` said Paul Ashworth, chief U.S. economist for Capital Economics.
Read the full article here.
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It's all about the jobs...and gold
This week we briefly look at yesterday morning`s dismal unemployment report, then drop back and survey some other very eye-opening data on employment. Some groups are (surprise) doing better than others. What would it take to get us back to `normal,` whatever that is? I give you a link to some webinars I will be involved in and finish with the answer to the question I am asked most often, `What do you think about gold?` I tell all. There are lots of topics to cover, so let`s get started with no `but firsts.` (Note: this e-letter may print out rather long, as there are LOTS of charts and tables.)
here.
This week we briefly look at yesterday morning`s dismal unemployment report, then drop back and survey some other very eye-opening data on employment. Some groups are (surprise) doing better than others. What would it take to get us back to `normal,` whatever that is? I give you a link to some webinars I will be involved in and finish with the answer to the question I am asked most often, `What do you think about gold?` I tell all. There are lots of topics to cover, so let`s get started with no `but firsts.` (Note: this e-letter may print out rather long, as there are LOTS of charts and tables.)
here.
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Job growth stalls, fuels recession fears
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. employment growth ground to a halt in August, reviving recession fears and piling pressure on both President Barack Obama and the Federal Reserve to provide more stimulus to aid the frail economy.
For the first time in nearly a year the economy failed to create new jobs on a net basis according to the Labor Department's monthly nonfarm payrolls survey on Friday.
Economists had expected nonfarm employment to rise 75,000 last month but they cautioned against viewing the data as a surefire sign of recession.
Read the full article here.
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. employment growth ground to a halt in August, reviving recession fears and piling pressure on both President Barack Obama and the Federal Reserve to provide more stimulus to aid the frail economy.
For the first time in nearly a year the economy failed to create new jobs on a net basis according to the Labor Department's monthly nonfarm payrolls survey on Friday.
Economists had expected nonfarm employment to rise 75,000 last month but they cautioned against viewing the data as a surefire sign of recession.
Read the full article here.
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Anemic U.S. job growth continues
Keep an eye on U.S. President Barack Obama this week. The embattled president is set to announce his jobs package in a joint session of Congress Thursday against a backdrop of anemic U.S. job creation. A Labor Department report on Friday showed the American economy had failed to create jobs in August, putting an end to nearly a year of increases.
The president`s blueprint is expected to include a mix of tax breaks, some help for homeowners and spending on public works, according to Reuters. It comes one week after a decision to abandon proposed air-quality standards, which Republicans opposed on grounds that the legislation would further stall the U.S. economy by killing jobs at a time when growth is desperately needed. Another factor at play: the sudden collapse of California-based Solyndra Inc., which received $385-million in stimulus funding but left some 1,000 workers jobless after filing for bankruptcy (along with two other solar firms) this week.
Read the full article here.
Keep an eye on U.S. President Barack Obama this week. The embattled president is set to announce his jobs package in a joint session of Congress Thursday against a backdrop of anemic U.S. job creation. A Labor Department report on Friday showed the American economy had failed to create jobs in August, putting an end to nearly a year of increases.
The president`s blueprint is expected to include a mix of tax breaks, some help for homeowners and spending on public works, according to Reuters. It comes one week after a decision to abandon proposed air-quality standards, which Republicans opposed on grounds that the legislation would further stall the U.S. economy by killing jobs at a time when growth is desperately needed. Another factor at play: the sudden collapse of California-based Solyndra Inc., which received $385-million in stimulus funding but left some 1,000 workers jobless after filing for bankruptcy (along with two other solar firms) this week.
Read the full article here.
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U.S. employers added no net jobs in August, while jobless rate was unchanged at 9.1%
WASHINGTON - U.S. employers stopped adding jobs in August, an alarming setback for an economy that has struggled to grow and might be at risk of another recession.
The government also reported that the unemployment rate remained at 9.1 per cent. It was the weakest jobs report since September 2010.
Stocks tumbled on the news. The Dow Jones industrial average sank more than 200 points, or 1.8 per cent, in afternoon trading.
Read the full article here.
WASHINGTON - U.S. employers stopped adding jobs in August, an alarming setback for an economy that has struggled to grow and might be at risk of another recession.
The government also reported that the unemployment rate remained at 9.1 per cent. It was the weakest jobs report since September 2010.
Stocks tumbled on the news. The Dow Jones industrial average sank more than 200 points, or 1.8 per cent, in afternoon trading.
Read the full article here.
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Broader unemployment rate rises to 16.2%
The U.S. jobless rate was flat at 9.1% in August, but the government`s broader measure of unemployment rose to 16.2%, matching the highest rate this year.
The comprehensive gauge of labor underutilization, known as the `U-6` for its data classification by the Labor Department, accounts for people who have stopped looking for work or who can`t find full-time jobs.
The key to the rise in the broader unemployment rate was due to a 430,000 jump in the number of people employed part time but who would prefer full-time work. That number could reflect a rising number of workers who saw their hours cut back by concerned bosses or new part-time hires who would prefer full time work.
Read the full article here.
The U.S. jobless rate was flat at 9.1% in August, but the government`s broader measure of unemployment rose to 16.2%, matching the highest rate this year.
The comprehensive gauge of labor underutilization, known as the `U-6` for its data classification by the Labor Department, accounts for people who have stopped looking for work or who can`t find full-time jobs.
The key to the rise in the broader unemployment rate was due to a 430,000 jump in the number of people employed part time but who would prefer full-time work. That number could reflect a rising number of workers who saw their hours cut back by concerned bosses or new part-time hires who would prefer full time work.
Read the full article here.
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U.S. real estate buy tricky
MONTREAL -- A strong loonie and depressed U.S. real estate prices have led to a buying binge by Canadians south of the border. We're now the largest non-American buyers of U.S. real estate. Many purchasers, however, only have a vague idea of what they've committed to from a tax and legal standpoint.
"There's a presumption among people that the laws must be the same in the U.S. and Canada. A lot find out otherwise only after they buy," said David Altro, a Montreal lawyer who also practises in the United States.
Altro, who specializes in cross-border tax, property and estate-planning issues, is the author of a 2009 guidebook titled Owning U.S. Property the Canadian Way.
Read the full article here.
MONTREAL -- A strong loonie and depressed U.S. real estate prices have led to a buying binge by Canadians south of the border. We're now the largest non-American buyers of U.S. real estate. Many purchasers, however, only have a vague idea of what they've committed to from a tax and legal standpoint.
"There's a presumption among people that the laws must be the same in the U.S. and Canada. A lot find out otherwise only after they buy," said David Altro, a Montreal lawyer who also practises in the United States.
Altro, who specializes in cross-border tax, property and estate-planning issues, is the author of a 2009 guidebook titled Owning U.S. Property the Canadian Way.
Read the full article here.
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August payrolls sucked. The U.S. economy needs to be ferberized
Zero net jobs were created in August vs expectations of +68k but it does include a reduction of 45k due to the Verizon strike where all will come back in the Sept data. The private sector created 17k, well below expectations of 95k. The household survey did add 331k after job losses in the two prior months but because the labor force rose by 366k, the unemployment rate held steady at 9.1%. The U6 rate rose .1% to 16.2%. Also disappointing, avg hourly earnings fell by .1% m/o/m and is up just 1.9% y/o/y, well below the recent CPI readings of 3%+ and the avg workweek ticked down to 34.2, the lowest since Jan. The avg duration of unemployment fell a hair from its record high. Manufacturers shed jobs for the 1st time since Oct `10. Jobs were also lost in construction, retail, and at the local government level (state and federal added workers). Jobs were added in finance, business services including temp, education/health and leisure/hospitality.
Read the full article here.
Zero net jobs were created in August vs expectations of +68k but it does include a reduction of 45k due to the Verizon strike where all will come back in the Sept data. The private sector created 17k, well below expectations of 95k. The household survey did add 331k after job losses in the two prior months but because the labor force rose by 366k, the unemployment rate held steady at 9.1%. The U6 rate rose .1% to 16.2%. Also disappointing, avg hourly earnings fell by .1% m/o/m and is up just 1.9% y/o/y, well below the recent CPI readings of 3%+ and the avg workweek ticked down to 34.2, the lowest since Jan. The avg duration of unemployment fell a hair from its record high. Manufacturers shed jobs for the 1st time since Oct `10. Jobs were also lost in construction, retail, and at the local government level (state and federal added workers). Jobs were added in finance, business services including temp, education/health and leisure/hospitality.
Read the full article here.
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U.S. chamber backs Keystone expansion
The U.S. Chamber of Commerce is launching a counterattack against opponents of the proposed Keystone XL pipeline, who over the weekend wrapped up two weeks of daily protests outside the White House, during which more than 1,250 were arrested.
Concerned environmental groups are dominating public discourse over TransCanada's project that would ship bitumen from Alberta to the U.S. Gulf Coast, the prominent business group penned a letter to President Barack Obama and Congress advocating for its approval as a way to create jobs for some of the 25 million Americans who are unemployed, underemployed or who've given up looking for work.
Enabling Keystone XL to be built is one of four priorities for the chamber under its section on producing more energy at home, part of a larger message for the president on supporting job growth as he prepares to deliver his economic speech on Thursday.
Read the full article here.
The U.S. Chamber of Commerce is launching a counterattack against opponents of the proposed Keystone XL pipeline, who over the weekend wrapped up two weeks of daily protests outside the White House, during which more than 1,250 were arrested.
Concerned environmental groups are dominating public discourse over TransCanada's project that would ship bitumen from Alberta to the U.S. Gulf Coast, the prominent business group penned a letter to President Barack Obama and Congress advocating for its approval as a way to create jobs for some of the 25 million Americans who are unemployed, underemployed or who've given up looking for work.
Enabling Keystone XL to be built is one of four priorities for the chamber under its section on producing more energy at home, part of a larger message for the president on supporting job growth as he prepares to deliver his economic speech on Thursday.
Read the full article here.
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Real wage slide hurts economy, Obama
Real wages are falling sharply, pinching Americans' buying power and raising the risks for a fragile economy and President Obama's re-election hopes.
With more than 4 unemployed workers available for every job opening, pressure on wages has been intense.
Inflation-adjusted weekly earnings have fallen significantly in recent months, likely falling more than 1.5% vs. a year earlier in August. That would be the biggest drop since the height of the financial crisis in late 2008.
Read the full article here.
Real wages are falling sharply, pinching Americans' buying power and raising the risks for a fragile economy and President Obama's re-election hopes.
With more than 4 unemployed workers available for every job opening, pressure on wages has been intense.
Inflation-adjusted weekly earnings have fallen significantly in recent months, likely falling more than 1.5% vs. a year earlier in August. That would be the biggest drop since the height of the financial crisis in late 2008.
Read the full article here.
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Will tax break lift the U.S. dollar?
Is the U.S. dollar about to get a boost? Some observers are growing more confident that the U.S. government is going to give companies a tax holiday in an effort to repatriate big profits that are now parked overseas and help stimulate the economy.
They`ve done this before, in the 2005 Homeland Investment Act, and the results were mixed: A total of $360-billion (U.S.) came back to U.S. shores over the course of the 12-month tax holiday, but most of the money flowed into the pockets of investors in the form of dividends and share buybacks, rather than into job-creating schemes.
Read the full article here.
Is the U.S. dollar about to get a boost? Some observers are growing more confident that the U.S. government is going to give companies a tax holiday in an effort to repatriate big profits that are now parked overseas and help stimulate the economy.
They`ve done this before, in the 2005 Homeland Investment Act, and the results were mixed: A total of $360-billion (U.S.) came back to U.S. shores over the course of the 12-month tax holiday, but most of the money flowed into the pockets of investors in the form of dividends and share buybacks, rather than into job-creating schemes.
Read the full article here.
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Foreclosure fillings jump 7% in August from July
Foreclosure filings, which include those late-payment notices plus auction announcements and bank repossessions, rose 7% in August compared with July, hitting a total of 228,098 U.S. properties. But the filing rate fell 33% from a year earlier.
And while the number of those first-time default notices sent rose 33% in August versus July, to a total of 78,880 properties, they fell 18% compared with a year ago, and they`re 44% lower than the monthly peak in April 2009.
That is, the year-over-year data looks relatively positive, but the monthly data appears to be cause for worry ` or, perhaps, relief, depending on your point of view.
Read the full article here.
Foreclosure filings, which include those late-payment notices plus auction announcements and bank repossessions, rose 7% in August compared with July, hitting a total of 228,098 U.S. properties. But the filing rate fell 33% from a year earlier.
And while the number of those first-time default notices sent rose 33% in August versus July, to a total of 78,880 properties, they fell 18% compared with a year ago, and they`re 44% lower than the monthly peak in April 2009.
That is, the year-over-year data looks relatively positive, but the monthly data appears to be cause for worry ` or, perhaps, relief, depending on your point of view.
Read the full article here.
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New foreclosures surge during August in hardest-hit markets
Significantly more properties entered the foreclosure process during August in the nation's hardest-hit markets, including battered parts of inland California and other areas in the West, as Bank of America Corp. stepped up its activity in states where a court order is not needed to take back a home.
Among the states with the highest foreclosure rates, California led the pack in new foreclosure proceedings with an increase of 55% over July, according to data from Irvine-based RealtyTrac. Metro areas in the inland parts of California posted big jumps, with Riverside and San Bernardino counties soaring 68%, Bakersfield 44% and Modesto 57%, the real estate information company said.
A separate report found crosscurrents in Southern California's housing market during August, with sales increasing but prices continuing to fall.
Read the full article here.
Significantly more properties entered the foreclosure process during August in the nation's hardest-hit markets, including battered parts of inland California and other areas in the West, as Bank of America Corp. stepped up its activity in states where a court order is not needed to take back a home.
Among the states with the highest foreclosure rates, California led the pack in new foreclosure proceedings with an increase of 55% over July, according to data from Irvine-based RealtyTrac. Metro areas in the inland parts of California posted big jumps, with Riverside and San Bernardino counties soaring 68%, Bakersfield 44% and Modesto 57%, the real estate information company said.
A separate report found crosscurrents in Southern California's housing market during August, with sales increasing but prices continuing to fall.
Read the full article here.
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What will it take for consumer confidence to improve?
NEW YORK, N.Y. - Consumers' confidence remained weak in September after dropping to a post-recession low during the month before. That's left economists to wonder just what it'll take to get Americans feeling good about the economy again.
A survey of consumer confidence shows that Americans who were worried in August because of a downgrade of U.S. long-term debt, wild stock markets swings and other concerns, continue to be spooked. Economists say the problem is that not much has changed to make consumers feel financially secure. The stock market is still volatile. Worries about the global economy persist. And perhaps worst of all for confidence, U.S. jobs are still scarce.
"We are well below where we should be, and that's because the unemployment situation is so bad," said Paul Dales, senior U.S. economist at Capital Economics. "You have to have a huge fall in the unemployment rate."
Read the full article here.
NEW YORK, N.Y. - Consumers' confidence remained weak in September after dropping to a post-recession low during the month before. That's left economists to wonder just what it'll take to get Americans feeling good about the economy again.
A survey of consumer confidence shows that Americans who were worried in August because of a downgrade of U.S. long-term debt, wild stock markets swings and other concerns, continue to be spooked. Economists say the problem is that not much has changed to make consumers feel financially secure. The stock market is still volatile. Worries about the global economy persist. And perhaps worst of all for confidence, U.S. jobs are still scarce.
"We are well below where we should be, and that's because the unemployment situation is so bad," said Paul Dales, senior U.S. economist at Capital Economics. "You have to have a huge fall in the unemployment rate."
Read the full article here.
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U.S. home prices flat in July
U.S. home prices were flat in July, according to The Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller index released Tuesday.
Prices increased from June in 17 of the major 20 cities the index tracks, but only by 0.5 per cent even though July is the peak buying season.
Compared with a year earlier, the index is 4.1 per cent lower, which was slightly better than the 4.4 per cent decline markets had expected.
Read the full article here.
U.S. home prices were flat in July, according to The Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller index released Tuesday.
Prices increased from June in 17 of the major 20 cities the index tracks, but only by 0.5 per cent even though July is the peak buying season.
Compared with a year earlier, the index is 4.1 per cent lower, which was slightly better than the 4.4 per cent decline markets had expected.
Read the full article here.
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Why the U.S. jobs problem is bad news for the world
Record-high long-term unemployment is testing politicians and central bankers to the utmost as the impact of a shortfall in demand is amplified by an aging population, a mismatch of skills and inadequate efforts to get people back to work.
That`s a summary not of Europe, typically associated with rigid hiring and firing laws and excessive non-wage costs, but of the United States, long renowned for a labour market as dynamic as its entrepreneurs.
America`s jobs machine is now spluttering badly, an ominous development for businesses worldwide hoping for a revival in the world`s largest economy to relieve the gloom cast by the eurozone debt crisis.
Read the full article here.
Record-high long-term unemployment is testing politicians and central bankers to the utmost as the impact of a shortfall in demand is amplified by an aging population, a mismatch of skills and inadequate efforts to get people back to work.
That`s a summary not of Europe, typically associated with rigid hiring and firing laws and excessive non-wage costs, but of the United States, long renowned for a labour market as dynamic as its entrepreneurs.
America`s jobs machine is now spluttering badly, an ominous development for businesses worldwide hoping for a revival in the world`s largest economy to relieve the gloom cast by the eurozone debt crisis.
Read the full article here.
- Joined
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Welcome to Alberta, Americans
The economic news south of the border is grim.
While Alberta has an unemployment rate of roughly five per cent, the U.S. unemployment rate is a little over nine per cent.
That's only part of the story. California had an August unemployment rate of 12.1 per cent. In Nevada, it's 13.4 per cent. Florida, Georgia, Rhode Island, Michigan, North and South Carolina - all have double-digit unemployment. Even Texas, long an economic powerhouse, has an 8.5-per-cent jobless rate. Here, our economic issues are the opposite. Some 30 per cent of Albertans work in occupational categories that are already facing labour shortages. We're shy of everything from long-haul truckers to nurses. Skilled trades shortages will only get worse as recently announced major construction projects, public and private, come on line.
Read the full article here.
The economic news south of the border is grim.
While Alberta has an unemployment rate of roughly five per cent, the U.S. unemployment rate is a little over nine per cent.
That's only part of the story. California had an August unemployment rate of 12.1 per cent. In Nevada, it's 13.4 per cent. Florida, Georgia, Rhode Island, Michigan, North and South Carolina - all have double-digit unemployment. Even Texas, long an economic powerhouse, has an 8.5-per-cent jobless rate. Here, our economic issues are the opposite. Some 30 per cent of Albertans work in occupational categories that are already facing labour shortages. We're shy of everything from long-haul truckers to nurses. Skilled trades shortages will only get worse as recently announced major construction projects, public and private, come on line.
Read the full article here.