REMAX`s Outlook for the Canadian Housing Market in 2009

[BrianJamieson]

Hi Folks,

Enclosed is a link to a great document published by REMAX today with their outlook on the Canadian Housing Market in 2009. Enjoy!

http://files.newswire.ca/348/REMAXoutlook20091203.pdf

Brian

 

[zimnicki]

Very good to know! Good work!

thanks

 

[mikestr]

Thanks for the info!

 

[joe123]

Remax says... Regina up 9% for 2009, Saskatoon up 2%, Edmonton and Calgary 0%.... argh... Why did I ever invest in Alberta.... My residense in Edmonton plummited 25% to 460k Terwilligar), I can`t even replace it in Saskatoon for less than 560k(stonebridge), nor Regina for 500k... And it would never be beside a 90mil rec centre or lrt etc. etc.. What the hell? Is Saskatchewan ever going to correct? Now forecasted to go up even further? I feel like I`m taking crazy pills!, or I am just not getting it. I know Sask pays less, has a strong future yes, but compared to Alberta, no?, and on paper they should cost less, at least to me, right? Or the Alberta Paranoia and panic should trickle over there a bit no? at least a 15% correction? Am I misssing something? A big tropical ocean beside Regina? No taxes in Saskatoon? Am I crazy? What is going on? Everybody says prices went up too fast here, so they had to come down, yet sask and regina went up even more, and are going up even higher??? Nutana more expensive than Glenora, come on.... I got brutally raped in Edmonton investing. 25% off our properties in a year...ouch... Yet if I did the exact same thing in Regina, I`d be laughing... What is going on? why was rein not pushing Sask? I can`t find a city in Canada that can build the same house I live in for less... Yet Edmontonians still say it is too expensive. Oh course they compare a 1918 built ghetto in newfoundland, sask or ontairo to a brand new highend Edmonton home... but really... I am so close to giving up on Deadmonton forever and investing in the stupidist place I can think of, maybe even Regina or Saskatoon.... Why is Alberta so dead and falling yet Saskatchewan is just humming along? Fort mac is humming along? People oblivious out there as to what is going on in the world? maybe they don`t panic over headlines like Albertans? The builders didn`t create that huge of inventory here, a lot of panic did as well. Why does this panic only happen in Alberta and certain places in BC? Anybody else feeling confused like me? any answers? I`m about to lose it!!!! I`m going to go hide in the bush and yell at squirrels... I`d rip out my hair if I had any too...

 

[Twong]

QUOTE (joe123 @ Dec 4 2008, 12:42 AM) Remax says... Regina up 9% for 2009, Saskatoon up 2%, Edmonton and Calgary 0%.... argh... Why did I ever invest in Alberta.... My residense in Edmonton plummited 25% to 460k Terwilligar), I can`t even replace it in Saskatoon for less than 560k(stonebridge), nor Regina for 500k... And it would never be beside a 90mil rec centre or lrt etc. etc.. What the hell? Is Saskatchewan ever going to correct? Now forecasted to go up even further? I feel like I`m taking crazy pills!, or I am just not getting it. I know Sask pays less, has a strong future yes, but compared to Alberta, no?, and on paper they should cost less, at least to me, right? Or the Alberta Paranoia and panic should trickle over there a bit no? at least a 15% correction? Am I misssing something? A big tropical ocean beside Regina? No taxes in Saskatoon? Am I crazy? What is going on? Everybody says prices went up too fast here, so they had to come down, yet sask and regina went up even more, and are going up even higher??? Nutana more expensive than Glenora, come on.... I got brutally raped in Edmonton investing. 25% off our properties in a year...ouch... Yet if I did the exact same thing in Regina, I`d be laughing... What is going on? why was rein not pushing Sask? I can`t find a city in Canada that can build the same house I live in for less... Yet Edmontonians still say it is too expensive. Oh course they compare a 1918 built ghetto in newfoundland, sask or ontairo to a brand new highend Edmonton home... but really... I am so close to giving up on Deadmonton forever and investing in the stupidist place I can think of, maybe even Regina or Saskatoon.... Why is Alberta so dead and falling yet Saskatchewan is just humming along? Fort mac is humming along? People oblivious out there as to what is going on in the world? maybe they don`t panic over headlines like Albertans? The builders didn`t create that huge of inventory here, a lot of panic did as well. Why does this panic only happen in Alberta and certain places in BC? Anybody else feeling confused like me? any answers? I`m about to lose it!!!! I`m going to go hide in the bush and yell at squirrels... I`d rip out my hair if I had any too...

 

[dwb]

QUOTE (joe123 @ Dec 4 2008, 03:42 AM) Remax says...
Why does this panic only happen in Alberta and certain places in BC? Anybody else feeling confused like me? any answers?

I can`t speak for out West, but I know that London Ontario is listed as one of the few cities in that Remax report will see positive price growth. London is where I do a lot of investing. I do so because I noticed the historical pattern of London & its extremely diverse economy. It has proven STABLE growth. And then I noticed that London wasn`t participating in the high double-digit returns that places out West were. So I figured that if it wasn`t participating in the explosive housing price growth, then London probably wouldn`t participate in the equally explosive downward slide when the pendalum swings the other way.

London`s housing affordability is extremely good and house prices are so very affordable, its not hard to find a house to own that with mortgage payments are cheaper than renting.

At a reliable 5% a year growth you can growth amazingly with the use of leverage.

So to answer your question, I guess the West got a little ahead of itself while some places like London just chugged along at its usual growth... that being said it was difficult in the good times to compare London to other cities that were experiencing phenomenal growth. And that growth out West will continue again once the current correction subsides. So pick your battles as to where you choose to deploy your investing capital.

 

[RedlineBrett]

Some good news excerpts for the Calgary investors:

"Th e city’s economy grew at an estimated rate of 3.2 per cent in 2008 and is expected to exceed the national average in 2009. Net migration is also forecast to improve in 2009, with an estimated 18,500 interprovincial migrants moving to Calgary. Th e influx should serve to bolster demand for real estate in the city."

"Buyer’s market conditions are expected to prevail during the first half of the year, with home sales under $400,000 most active."

 

[mponte]

Thanks for the info Brian!

Interesting info.


QUOTE (bwjamieson @ Dec 3 2008, 09:20 AM) Hi Folks,

Enclosed is a link to a great document published by REMAX today with their outlook on the Canadian Housing Market in 2009. Enjoy!

http://files.newswire.ca/348/REMAXoutlook20091203.pdf

Brian

 

[Thomas Beyer]

QUOTE (bwjamieson @ Dec 3 2008, 09:20 AM)
Hi Folks,



Enclosed is a link to a great document published by REMAX today with their outlook on the Canadian Housing Market in 2009. Enjoy!



http://files.newswire.ca/348/REMAXoutlook20091203.pdf



Brian


ReMax has an opinion .. and it may or may not be true ! Many unknowns: interest rates, socialist government or not, oil price, US recession depth and length, price of resources like nickel, copper, uranium, potash ...., taxes, car industry subsidies, ...



My view is that prices in 2009 will likely be LOWER than 2008 .. depending on region it could be a negative 0 to a -25% ... and flat in 2010 .. then rise again ...



WHY / More details on another REIN post on 50 year view: http://myreinspace.com/rein_members_only/Members-Only_Discussion/81-6621-50_Year_Calgary_House_Price_View.html

 

[wealthyboomer]

Housing prices headed for fall
ReMax expects 5% drop by end of 2009 as consumer confidence sags
http://thechronicleherald.ca/Business/1093999.html

 

[Jack]

QUOTE Why is Alberta so dead and falling yet Saskatchewan is just humming along? Fort mac is humming along? People oblivious out there as to what is going on in the world? maybe they don`t panic over headlines like Albertans? The builders didn`t create that huge of inventory here, a lot of panic did as well. Why does this panic only happen in Alberta and certain places in BC? Anybody else feeling confused like me? any answers? I`m about to lose it!!!!

Saskatchewan is more affordable. You may earn 10% more gross income in Alberta, but the real estate is a good 30 - 40% more. That`s why the market is "humming along", as you say. There`s also a sizeable labour shortage in a place like Regina, whereas a place like Calgary will probably see an unemployment increase in 2009.

Alberta & B.C. are the two least affordable provinces in Canada, meaning that they`ll probably be hit hardest as the economy continues to soften.

On RE/MAX`s outlook, it`s just an opinion, as is REIN`s Top-10 Towns.

 

[Thomas Beyer]

QUOTE (Jack @ Dec 5 2008, 07:17 AM) Saskatchewan is more affordable. You may earn 10% more gross income in Alberta, but the real estate is a good 30 - 40% more. That`s why the market is "humming along", as you say. There`s also a sizeable labour shortage in a place like Regina, whereas a place like Calgary will probably see an unemployment increase in 2009.

Alberta & B.C. are the two least affordable provinces in Canada, meaning that they`ll probably be hit hardest as the economy continues to soften.

On RE/MAX`s outlook, it`s just an opinion, as is REIN`s Top-10 Towns.

oh yes ? Saskatoon and Regina have seen seem considerable pull-back in prices recently !

look at Uranium or Potash prices .. not exactly sky high either anymore .. like oil .. peaked early summer and down from there ! So yes SK has a somewhat brighter immediate future due to lower prices than AB and BC .. but it has brutal winters, lower wages and a similar dependency on oil, gas, uranium or potash prices as AB has .. so a wee bit better than AB for a year or 2 .. then a wash .. certainly a right-of-center pro-business government does help, like in AB or BC !

 

[wgraham]

QUOTE There`s also a sizable labor shortage in a place like Regina, whereas a place like Calgary will probably see an unemployment increase in 2009.

When you are running at full tilt the only place for unemployment to go is up.....which in my mind wouldn`t be such a bad thing. We might be able to get trades to actually do work for reasonable money. We might be able to get some affordability back into the market. We might be able to actually get some of these infrastructure projects done. All of which in the long term will have a positive effect on the market. But last I checked there are still more "Help Wanted" than "vacancy" signs in Calgary so I don`t think we are going to see any drastic changes any time soon.

And if it doesn`t fall than we get more for our homes and our rents.

So, again, opportunity or danger? Fear or action?

Wade

 

[wealthyboomer]

QUOTE (thomasbeyer2000 @ Dec 5 2008, 12:44 PM) oh yes ? Saskatoon and Regina have seen seem considerable pull-back in prices recently !

look at Uranium or Potash prices .. not exactly sky high either anymore .. like oil .. peaked early summer and down from there ! So yes SK has a somewhat brighter immediate future due to lower prices than AB and BC .. but it has brutal winters, lower wages and a similar dependency on oil, gas, uranium or potash prices as AB has .. so a wee bit better than AB for a year or 2 .. then a wash .. certainly a right-of-center pro-business government does help, like in AB or BC !

Speaking of `Potash`...it`s surprising that a lack of Saskatchewan Potash can actually delay `air-travel`.
A 99-day work stoppage by Canadian potash miners led to production cuts for a runway de-icing fluid that contains potash as an ingredient, and now airports that need it don’t have enough.

Some of the biggest hubs in the U.S. appear affected by the shortage of the potassium acetate-based de-icer - meaning Canadians heading to almost anywhere south of the border for the holidays could find themselves held up longer than expected if bad weather strikes.
http://tinyurl.com/6pr2l6

 

[Jack]

QUOTE oh yes ? Saskatoon and Regina have seen seem considerable pull-back in prices recently !

I`m not saying that their values are going to rise, I`m saying that their real estate is more affordable, relative to wages. In contrast to RE/MAX, I don`t think there will be many markets in 2009 which don`t have a pull-back in prices. You`re talking about a 7-year, herd mentality-driven real estate bull market that`s now come to a screeching halt. Consumer confidence is in the toilet, risk-aversion is way high.

 

[RedlineBrett]

QUOTE (Jack @ Dec 6 2008, 11:58 AM) I`m not saying that their values are going to rise, I`m saying that their real estate is more affordable, relative to wages. In contrast to RE/MAX, I don`t think there will be many markets in 2009 which don`t have a pull-back in prices. You`re talking about a 7-year, herd mentality-driven real estate bull market that`s now come to a screeching halt. Consumer confidence is in the toilet, risk-aversion is way high.

On what basis do you qualify the recent boom as "herd mentality driven"? Any support or proof of this?

 

[housingrental]

Brett:

Properties in many mature markets selling for true cap rates of 5%
Unit sales
"Flippers" is a common term
Line ups for presales
Everyone I know - regardless of any background in contracting, real estate, or having any money - wants to flip a house
Media saturation
(There`s even like 10 separate shows glorifying the job of real estate agent)
Proliferation of real estate investing groups - See REIN membership growth
"Staging" is now a common term and career aspiration

 

[Mike Milovick]

I am thinking if Remax actually looked at the demographics and economic fundamentals specfic to my area, Kitchener-Waterloo-Cambridge, as opposed to making pretty much a blanket statement regarding the Ontario economy, they would have a different opinion of my market. If you want to enjoy a nice increase in multi-family property valuations, invest in Waterloo in 2009.

Mike Milovick
Sales Representative
Prudential Grand Valley Realty
Hi Folks,

Enclosed is a link to a great document published by REMAX today with their outlook on the Canadian Housing Market in 2009. Enjoy!

http://files.newswire.ca/348/REMAXoutlook20091203.pdf

Brian

 

[RedlineBrett]

QUOTE Brett:

Properties in many mature markets selling for true cap rates of 5%
Unit sales
"Flippers" is a common term
Line ups for presales
Everyone I know - regardless of any background in contracting, real estate, or having any money - wants to flip a house
Media saturation
(There`s even like 10 separate shows glorifying the job of real estate agent)
Proliferation of real estate investing groups - See REIN membership growth
"Staging" is now a common term and career aspiration

Not really buying any of that. You are just talking about RE becoming more popular... Much different from a "herd mentality" IMO.

What about the growth of emerging markets (china, india, Russia) fueling demand for commodities and north american brainpower?
What about the equities markets setting new heights year after year?
What about new technologies being developed and brought to market?

The whole economy was doing great for years... it wasn`t as though RE was on some island and immune to other market forces.

The same things that allow people to buy bigger and better cars, clothes, meals etc allow them to consume and spend more for property.

Also, people have been flipping houses, improving on or investing in real estate for years - just that now there are 300 specialty channels available through cable TV and the internet to make it seem more popular than it is... All of which are cheap to make and easy to sell to advertisers given that the understanding of some level of real estate is something everyone has in common.

 

[Thomas Beyer]

QUOTE (Jack @ Dec 6 2008, 10:58 AM) ... real estate bull market that`s now come to a screeching halt. Consumer confidence is in the toilet, risk-aversion is way high.

buy when blood is in the street ..

buy now ? or when all indicators are bullish ?