Welcome!

By registering with us, you'll be able to discuss, share and private message with other members of our community.

SignUp Now!

RE vs stock market vs bonds

TangoWhiskey

0
Registered
Joined
Aug 26, 2010
Messages
380
Has anyone seen any material/writings/research looking at the broad performances of the overall 3 asset classes? ie stocks vs bonds vs real estate? You often hear stocks are superior over the long term from the financial industry but the returns quoted are never net of taxes or taking into account the huge leverage differences that can be utilised in real estate. This is a huge point and I was wondering if anyone had ever seen material examining this.



thanks, any answers are appreciated



TW
 

Thomas Beyer

0
REIN Member
Joined
Aug 30, 2007
Messages
13,881
Stock markets are FLAT from 2000 to 2011 .. ZERO percent return in 11 years !!!!! Negative -25% of one counts 2.5%/year mutual fund fees .. whereas bonds are up 25% or so .. and real estate 200%



Read this blog: What business is Wall Street in !



Despite the S&P downgrade, 10 year US treasuries were UP 8% today, meaning even lower returns .. despite the downgrade ! Weird !!



Buy a US 30 year bond at 3% return /year !



Return free risk .. as inflation is 4-5% !!



Gold or Silver has no income .. but is shiny !



Buy a REAL ASSET WITH INCOME PRODUCING CAPABILITIES !



QED.



I rest my case !
 

Rickson9

0
Registered
Joined
Oct 27, 2009
Messages
1,210
As usual a flawed and biased argument from a flawed and biased mind. Common thoughts from a common man.
 

Thomas Beyer

0
REIN Member
Joined
Aug 30, 2007
Messages
13,881
The financial industry has been "educating" people very well to save and invest in RRSPs .. now TFSAs .. to "invest" for retirement.



A basic stock or mutual fund portfolio is essentially FLAT now for ten years .. UNLESS you have skills to pick stocks and hold them for short periods of time and then exit .. i.e. trade !



The financial industry also created terms like "credit card" although it should be called "debt card" or "convenience card" or the term "finanical advisor" when they should be called "mutual fund sales person".



So, with markets flat for 10 years, will 2011 to 2020 be any better in stocks ?



Definition of insanity: Attempting to get different results doing the same thing !



This link by a billionaire http://www.opposingviews.com/i/mark-cuban-what-business-is-wall-street-in and associated blog is well thought out. Wall Street has lost its benefits to society !



Despite the US debt downgrade the price of 10 year treasuries in the US went UP 8% .. yielding even lower yields .. weird .. yet not unexpected if people pull $1T out of the stock market with their online computers, blackberries, iPhones and stop-loss triggered trading robots !



The poor play bingo, the middle class goes to Vegas and the rich play in the stock market ! Trading stocks is a more sophisticated version of gambling !!
 

Thomas Beyer

0
REIN Member
Joined
Aug 30, 2007
Messages
13,881
Common sense is not so common.



Here's my "common" view:




Something is changing in the world. What is it ?




I too was enraged this weekend at the stock market collapse, the UK
riots, the Greek riots, the Syrian riots and all the capitalistic greed
that caused so much money to disappear from real estate investments such
as Shire, Concrete Equities, Libertygate and the increased difficulty
we face raising money into our fairly safe and still quite lucrative
investments due to recent changes in the exempt market.



Something is changing in the world. What is it ?



I think it is the realization that a) democratically elected officials
cannot protect us any longer and b) that Wall Street and its extension
does not provide benefits for investors anymore.



People across the developed world are starting to realize that the
welfare state, the reliance on public healthcare, clean financial
markets, safe investments, guaranteed pensions, Freedom 55 doesn`t exist
anymore ! The `state` is not all powerful and gives us far less
benefits we hoped for.





To the second point, read this article
here by Mark Cuban, the billionaire owner of the Dallas Mavericks on
`What business is Wall Street in`. The ONLY parties that make money in
the financial industry are traders and banks, trading on extreme
volatility, borrowing money at next to nothing and lending it for 3.5
to 4%. Why risk lending to a small software start-up or a small real
estate land deal or retail outlet if one can make money almost risk
free.



The financial industry is systemically flawed when for TEN YEARS the
market is essentially flat .. from a DOW Jones of around 9,000 to now
around 11,000 .. a 20% total return on the index and that is before
mutual fund fees of 2% or so per year. Thus: ZERO return if you had
followed your advisor recommendation of buy and hold. Marginally better
on the TSX where you could have eaked out a 40% ROI in 10 years. So that
is the new reality: 4% in stocks ! Don`t believe in all this 7-9% stuff
if your in the stock market. Your financial `advisor` is making money,
your stock brokerage firm is making money, your bank is making money,
but you do not. But hey, 3 out of 4 ain`t so bad ! Why change it ??



Well, you have a choice: continue down that same insane path of
`investment` or try s.th else. Why not co-own some land or income
producing real estate in one of the most advanced and prosperous parts
of the world, namely W-Canada. We have what the world wants: oil, gas,
coal, wind, water, uranium, potash, agricultural land, clean air, space,
scenic beauty, less crowds, low debt, low deficits. W-Canada has high
levels of in-migration due to very strong job growth. Our rents in
Calgary and Edmonton are going up .. and after only 2-4 years of
ownership we have sold a portfolio of 4 buildings in Yorkton, SK at an
enormous profit. This deal went unconditional last week .. well into the triple digit on the cash invested !



We continue
to believe that opportunities exist in the right markets, such as most
cities in Alberta, for apartment buildings, land held for development or
for select construction projects. These projects can produce far higher
returns than the stock market if they are well selected, impeccably
managed and its values skilfully amplified.



Opportunities exist if one is prudent !
 

RedlineBrett

0
Registered
Joined
Oct 24, 2007
Messages
2,289
It takes a lot of conviction to hold onto any asset for the long term. Be that stocks, bonds or real estate. I think most investors just don't have the patience needed to see it through.



I have done precisely one apartment building syndication. Ended up with 7 partners. Made sales pitches to over 30 and found that one of the most prevailing questions was 'what if I want my money out early'. You don't buy a large RE asset to own it next year, you buy it to own it 10 years from now. The old guard still thinks that way but most people today don't.
 

Thomas Beyer

0
REIN Member
Joined
Aug 30, 2007
Messages
13,881
[quote user=RedlineBrett]you buy it to own it 10 years from now. The old guard still thinks that way but most people today don't.


well said .. although maybe this recent market activity gave people another wake up call to change their behavior !
 

wgraham

0
REIN Member
Joined
Sep 14, 2007
Messages
617
Just wrote this blog post and here is a quote from it:





"So you have ridiculously affordable mortgages, rampant inflation and a stock market designed to screw the investor. Where do you want to position yourself to capitalize from this?!?!


GICs that pay less then the rate of inflation? Mutual funds that compensate a fund manager to keep your money not make you money? Stocks that have unpredictable volatility? Cash that is being devalued daily? Or gold at a record high $1740/ounce?"
 

housingrental

0
Registered
Joined
Oct 10, 2007
Messages
4,733
Hi Rickson9



Although you might not agree with Thomas's post there is no need to insult him



Perhaps it would be better if you provided your perspective on stock market investing - this would be a lot more compelling to most readers



Adam
 

nubiwan

0
Registered
Joined
Aug 20, 2009
Messages
159
With real estate, I can manage my own portfolio as opposed to have it controlled by circumstances beyond my control. Know what is a good deal in housing as opposed to predict a stock value may increas.



Sure, I can learn about being able to read a companies financials, but I am still left with little control over the success/failure of that business.



My kids RESP dropped about 10% in the last week, and there is nothing I can do about it other than the old "dollar cost averaging". At least I am buying cheap now and I am in it for the next 20 years anyway. Still, the point is, I can do nothing if the market tanks, and my RESP halves in value. Perhaps I should set aside one of my houses, and simply buy it off over 20 years, then use it to fund my kids educations.



Pretty sure the house price will not half over 20 years. Think history will confirm this. Cant say the same for stocks.
 

bizaro86

0
Registered
Joined
Jan 29, 2008
Messages
1,025
[quote user=nubiwan]Pretty sure the house price will not half over 20 years. Think history will confirm this. Cant say the same for stocks



Are you aware of any 20 year period when Canadian stocks were at half their level at the end of it as they were at the beginning? I don't even think there is any 20 year period where Canadian stocks are down, and I'm nearly positive that there isn't a 20 year period where they've dropped by 50%. I would be happy to see evidence to the contrary, and it would probably change my investment philosophy, but I don't believe it exists.



I don't really have a dog in this fight, since I invest in both stocks and real estate, and consider them complementary components of a healthy financial plan. Real estate has a unique stability and can support leverage, which can increase returns over time. Stock in good companies have significant operating leverage, and instant liquidity. This can be important for some of a portfolio, as grocery stores and condo board special assessments don't take equity in payment. This is a key reason for the concern Brett mentioned in his post above. A 10 year horizon is impossible for someone who might credibly need the money sooner than that, which is why real estate holdings should be backed up with more liquid assets of some kind, like cash or stocks.



Regards,



Michael
 

Thomas Beyer

0
REIN Member
Joined
Aug 30, 2007
Messages
13,881
[quote user=bizaro86]liquid assets


indeed .. liquidity for some portion of your portfolio is necessary .. but liquidity comes at a price of high volatility !



to repeat: The financial industry is systemically flawed when for TEN YEARS the
market is essentially flat .. from a DOW Jones of around 9,000 to now
around 11,000 .. a 20% total return on the index and that is before
mutual fund fees of 2% or so per year. Thus: ZERO return if you had
followed your advisor recommendation of buy and hold. Marginally better
on the TSX where you could have eaked out a 40% ROI in 10 years. So that
is the new reality: 4% in stocks ! Don`t believe in all this 7-9% stuff
if you invest in the stock market. Your financial `advisor` is making
money, your stock brokerage firm is making money, your bank is making
money, but you do not. But hey, 3 out of 4 ain`t so bad ! Why change it
??



Trading stocks of course is a nice profession, too !
 

RedlineBrett

0
Registered
Joined
Oct 24, 2007
Messages
2,289
[quote user=ThomasBeyer]



Trading stocks of course is a nice profession, too !




Maybe the competition bureau will go after that industry next and give real estate traders a break! ;) How can the poor uninformed general public make money when the professionals want 2% in fees! (very close to RE fees for those that haven't noticed!)
 

housingrental

0
Registered
Joined
Oct 10, 2007
Messages
4,733
Hi Thomas



So then would you say that the real estate industry is flawed when for TEN YEARS the market is essentially flat?



Have you checked past historical info on same properties throughout the world and in Canada?









[quote user=ThomasBeyer][quote user=bizaro86]liquid assets


indeed .. liquidity for some portion of your portfolio is necessary .. but liquidity comes at a price of high volatility !



to repeat: The financial industry is systemically flawed when for TEN YEARS the
market is essentially flat .. from a DOW Jones of around 9,000 to now
around 11,000 .. a 20% total return on the index and that is before
mutual fund fees of 2% or so per year. Thus: ZERO return if you had
followed your advisor recommendation of buy and hold. Marginally better
on the TSX where you could have eaked out a 40% ROI in 10 years. So that
is the new reality: 4% in stocks ! Don`t believe in all this 7-9% stuff
if you invest in the stock market. Your financial `advisor` is making
money, your stock brokerage firm is making money, your bank is making
money, but you do not. But hey, 3 out of 4 ain`t so bad ! Why change it
??



Trading stocks of course is a nice profession, too !
 

Thomas Beyer

0
REIN Member
Joined
Aug 30, 2007
Messages
13,881
[quote user=housingrental]So then would you say that the real estate industry is flawed when for TEN YEARS the market is essentially flat?


Which real estate market ANYWHERE IN THE WORLD has been flat for 10 years ?



HARDLY ANY .. maybe Detroit's with massive ex-migration !
 

housingrental

0
Registered
Joined
Oct 10, 2007
Messages
4,733
Check late 80's to late 90's data throughout many cities in Ontario - very flat.... some good area's had a <2% average gain... this is while inflation was much higher than today



Check many places in Alberta a bit before that.....



Currently there are selected cities in Canada where this is the case - and predicating in advance which cities will not see population growth is not a given even if it looks that way in hindsight.



In USA many area's - not just Detroit - but coast to coast whether you look at the rust belt, NE, mid west, Florida, etc...have prices that are not higher than they were 10 years ago when looking at the same property reselling.



Although the future is not written it's also a very reasonable possibility that many area's from 2007 - 2017 in Alberta and 2006-2016 in USA will not be seeing any price gains.... Phoenix, Las Vegas, Miami, Akron, etc...



The truth is there is lots of money to be made and lost in all asset classes. Timing matters.
 

Rickson9

0
Registered
Joined
Oct 27, 2009
Messages
1,210
I commend Adam's efforts in attempting to educate, but he makes too much sense for some to understand.
 
Top Bottom