October 2012 Canadian Economic Fundamentals
- Thread starter Ally
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Canada is still unprepared for aging double whammy
If we were the only country on Earth, productivity would still be the most important economic challenge facing Canada today. A decade or so ago, politicians were fond of talking about the issue in terms of national `competitiveness,` a matter of our`n beating their`n.
But this is nonsense. Competition takes place at the level of the firm, not the country. Every country is `competitive` in something, by definition: if comparative advantage were not enough to see to that (even if China were better than us at everything, it would still pay them to specialize at the things they are `most best` at, and leave the rest to us), a floating dollar would. Worse, the `competitiveness` frame, and the sporting metaphors to which it lent itself (`national champions,` Team Canada, etc), encouraged all sorts of bogus solutions, from industrial subsidies to foreign investment controls, that have served us ill.
Read the full article here.
If we were the only country on Earth, productivity would still be the most important economic challenge facing Canada today. A decade or so ago, politicians were fond of talking about the issue in terms of national `competitiveness,` a matter of our`n beating their`n.
But this is nonsense. Competition takes place at the level of the firm, not the country. Every country is `competitive` in something, by definition: if comparative advantage were not enough to see to that (even if China were better than us at everything, it would still pay them to specialize at the things they are `most best` at, and leave the rest to us), a floating dollar would. Worse, the `competitiveness` frame, and the sporting metaphors to which it lent itself (`national champions,` Team Canada, etc), encouraged all sorts of bogus solutions, from industrial subsidies to foreign investment controls, that have served us ill.
Read the full article here.
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Ottawa makes deficit strides
The federal government continues to make progress toward its goal of reducing the deficit despite weaker than expected economic growth and job creation.
The latest fiscal accounting from the Finance Department shows the deficit at roughly half last year's level in the first four months of the 2012-2013 fiscal period.
In the March budget, Ottawa projected the deficit for the year would be $21.1 billion, or $3.8 billion below the previous year's shortfall.
Read the full article here.
The federal government continues to make progress toward its goal of reducing the deficit despite weaker than expected economic growth and job creation.
The latest fiscal accounting from the Finance Department shows the deficit at roughly half last year's level in the first four months of the 2012-2013 fiscal period.
In the March budget, Ottawa projected the deficit for the year would be $21.1 billion, or $3.8 billion below the previous year's shortfall.
Read the full article here.
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Banks plan big push into small business sector
TORONTO ` Steve Murphy reckons he`s become pretty familiar with the ebb and flow of Canada`s small business sector, by far the biggest employer and a key driver of economic growth.
After 27 years looking after the needs of small and medium sized companies for the Bank of Montreal, most recently in Atlantic Canada, but also in Ontario and the Prairie provinces, BMO`s new Toronto-based head of commercial banking has an intuitive feel for where his clients are headed, and right now he`s getting set to help them grow.
Read the full article here.
TORONTO ` Steve Murphy reckons he`s become pretty familiar with the ebb and flow of Canada`s small business sector, by far the biggest employer and a key driver of economic growth.
After 27 years looking after the needs of small and medium sized companies for the Bank of Montreal, most recently in Atlantic Canada, but also in Ontario and the Prairie provinces, BMO`s new Toronto-based head of commercial banking has an intuitive feel for where his clients are headed, and right now he`s getting set to help them grow.
Read the full article here.
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Why Jim Flaherty is smiling
In every government known for its competence, there`s a strong number two standing behind the prime minister. Brian Mulroney had Don Mazankowski, known as his chief operating officer. Jean ChrÃtien had Paul Martin, and together they balanced Canada`s books. When they famously split up, it was the beginning of the end for the Liberals.
In the present government of Stephen Harper, the number two is Jim Flaherty, the finance minister. Flaherty`s influence in the government is unique. Only Foreign Affairs Minister John Baird and Immigration Minister Jason Kenney even come close.
Read the full article here.
In every government known for its competence, there`s a strong number two standing behind the prime minister. Brian Mulroney had Don Mazankowski, known as his chief operating officer. Jean ChrÃtien had Paul Martin, and together they balanced Canada`s books. When they famously split up, it was the beginning of the end for the Liberals.
In the present government of Stephen Harper, the number two is Jim Flaherty, the finance minister. Flaherty`s influence in the government is unique. Only Foreign Affairs Minister John Baird and Immigration Minister Jason Kenney even come close.
Read the full article here.
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China a powerful draw for Canadian businesses
As the federal government considers whether to approve the Chinese National Offshore Oil Corp.`s controversial $15.1 billion bid to buy Alberta oil sands giant Nexen Inc., Canada`s most powerful business leaders met this week in the capital region to push their views on doing business with Asia.
Called Canada in the Pacific Century, the two-day gathering of 200 chief executive officers, policy makers and academics, held intense discussions on everything from free trade with China to future ownership of Canada`s natural resources.
`Asia`s rise is driving profound changes in the global economy,` said John Manley, who heads the powerful Canadian Council of Chief Executives, which sponsored the gathering.
Read the full article here.
As the federal government considers whether to approve the Chinese National Offshore Oil Corp.`s controversial $15.1 billion bid to buy Alberta oil sands giant Nexen Inc., Canada`s most powerful business leaders met this week in the capital region to push their views on doing business with Asia.
Called Canada in the Pacific Century, the two-day gathering of 200 chief executive officers, policy makers and academics, held intense discussions on everything from free trade with China to future ownership of Canada`s natural resources.
`Asia`s rise is driving profound changes in the global economy,` said John Manley, who heads the powerful Canadian Council of Chief Executives, which sponsored the gathering.
Read the full article here.
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Canada - one nation, two real estate markets
Edmonton (left) was among the top downtown office markets in the country based on the absorption of space. For the year Toronto (right) is the only city in the country with negative overall office absorption.
Canada is one nation but these days it looks like two commercial real estate markets.
There is the west where demand continues to soar, aided but a booming resource market, and then there is the east, which continues to tread water as it attempts to keep a lid on vacancies.
Read the full article here.
Edmonton (left) was among the top downtown office markets in the country based on the absorption of space. For the year Toronto (right) is the only city in the country with negative overall office absorption.
Canada is one nation but these days it looks like two commercial real estate markets.
There is the west where demand continues to soar, aided but a booming resource market, and then there is the east, which continues to tread water as it attempts to keep a lid on vacancies.
Read the full article here.
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Job growth expected to remain soft
Ottawa, ON -- The Conference Board of Canada`s Help-Wanted Index posted a decline in August 2012, falling 3.3 points to 128.4. While the decline was modest compared with July`s 10-point gain, it was the third drop recorded this year and does suggest that job growth will remain soft in the near term.
The overall trend in the Index suggests that job gains will be modest in the coming months, with only 10,000 new jobs expected across Canada in September.
Seven provincial indexes posted declines. In Western Canada, Saskatchewan was the only province to see its index rise in August, with a gain of 29.2 points.
Read the full article here.
Ottawa, ON -- The Conference Board of Canada`s Help-Wanted Index posted a decline in August 2012, falling 3.3 points to 128.4. While the decline was modest compared with July`s 10-point gain, it was the third drop recorded this year and does suggest that job growth will remain soft in the near term.
The overall trend in the Index suggests that job gains will be modest in the coming months, with only 10,000 new jobs expected across Canada in September.
Seven provincial indexes posted declines. In Western Canada, Saskatchewan was the only province to see its index rise in August, with a gain of 29.2 points.
Read the full article here.
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The west ascendent as Eastern Canada's real estate lies dormant
Canada is one nation but these days it looks like two commercial real estate markets.
There is the west where demand continues to soar, aided but a booming resource market, and then there is the east, which continues to tread water as it attempts to keep a lid on vacancies.
`It really is black and white,` said Ross Moore, national research director at CB Richard Ellis Canada, which will release its third quarter results next week showing a stark contrast between everything west of Ontario and the rest of the nation.
Read the full article here.
Canada is one nation but these days it looks like two commercial real estate markets.
There is the west where demand continues to soar, aided but a booming resource market, and then there is the east, which continues to tread water as it attempts to keep a lid on vacancies.
`It really is black and white,` said Ross Moore, national research director at CB Richard Ellis Canada, which will release its third quarter results next week showing a stark contrast between everything west of Ontario and the rest of the nation.
Read the full article here.
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Why U.S. won't see oil dependence any time soon
Analysts at Canada`s Desjardins today dismiss the idea that the United States will see `oil independence` by around 2020.
America has certainly been moving that way over the last 10 years, they said in a report, but the suggestion among some analysts and politicians that it will happen within the next several years `will likely prove premature.`
Obviously, there are huge issues here for Canada`s oil patch, given the huge U.S. market for our exports.
But that will take time, said the report by Allan Stepa, Chris MacCulloch, Tim Murray, Josie Ho and Jamie Murray.
Read the full article here.
Analysts at Canada`s Desjardins today dismiss the idea that the United States will see `oil independence` by around 2020.
America has certainly been moving that way over the last 10 years, they said in a report, but the suggestion among some analysts and politicians that it will happen within the next several years `will likely prove premature.`
Obviously, there are huge issues here for Canada`s oil patch, given the huge U.S. market for our exports.
But that will take time, said the report by Allan Stepa, Chris MacCulloch, Tim Murray, Josie Ho and Jamie Murray.
Read the full article here.
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Canadian house prices edge up in third quarter while the number of home sales fall
TORONTO, Oct. 3, 2012 /CNW/ - The Royal LePage House Price Survey released today showed the average price of a home in Canada increased year-over-year between 1.8 and 4.8 per cent in the third quarter of 2012.
Survey findings indicated that the average standard two-storey home in Canada increased 4 per cent year-over-year rising to $403,747, while detached bungalows rose 4.8 per cent to $366,773. Standard condominiums witnessed an increase of 1.8 per cent to $243,607. Most cities in Canada experienced modest price appreciation in the quarter, but fewer homes were sold compared to the same period in 2011.
Read the full article here.
TORONTO, Oct. 3, 2012 /CNW/ - The Royal LePage House Price Survey released today showed the average price of a home in Canada increased year-over-year between 1.8 and 4.8 per cent in the third quarter of 2012.
Survey findings indicated that the average standard two-storey home in Canada increased 4 per cent year-over-year rising to $403,747, while detached bungalows rose 4.8 per cent to $366,773. Standard condominiums witnessed an increase of 1.8 per cent to $243,607. Most cities in Canada experienced modest price appreciation in the quarter, but fewer homes were sold compared to the same period in 2011.
Read the full article here.
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From 'outside looking in' to being a player: Canada's forward-looking trade agenda
Stagnant growth, high unemployment, and rising debt are the new mantras of the capitalist, developed world. Exports and trade are now seen as vital tools for breaking the downward spiral of debt and unmet expectations of disgruntled voters. Fortunately, leaders of both the richest economies and the developed world have learned the lessons of the 1930s. Through economic and financial forums like the G-20 ` aside from regular meetings and international policy coordination ` leaders now know that they must avoid introducing legislation like the disastrous Smoot-Hawley protectionist tariff measures passed by the U.S. Congress in 1930.
Canada is part of the shift to free trade and an active participant in free trade negotiations (FTAs) with the European Union and the Trans-Pacific Partnership, (TPP). It also has a bilateral pact with Japan. Each agreement is important on its own. Together, they represent a dramatic opening of the Canadian economy and a clear shift from the managerial `culture of contentment` so derided by Canada`s global thinkers. Despite an over-riding consensus that Canada`s biggest economic challenges remain relatively low productivity and tepid innovation relative to key competitors, the country remains wedded to a small number of exportable products and services that rely, with only a few exceptions, on the U.S. market (some 26 of 1250 exported products account for over 50 per cent of all exports). Even here, perhaps half of Canada`s manufactured exports come from intra-firm transactions, e.g. Ford Canada selling to Ford United States.
Read the full article here.
Stagnant growth, high unemployment, and rising debt are the new mantras of the capitalist, developed world. Exports and trade are now seen as vital tools for breaking the downward spiral of debt and unmet expectations of disgruntled voters. Fortunately, leaders of both the richest economies and the developed world have learned the lessons of the 1930s. Through economic and financial forums like the G-20 ` aside from regular meetings and international policy coordination ` leaders now know that they must avoid introducing legislation like the disastrous Smoot-Hawley protectionist tariff measures passed by the U.S. Congress in 1930.
Canada is part of the shift to free trade and an active participant in free trade negotiations (FTAs) with the European Union and the Trans-Pacific Partnership, (TPP). It also has a bilateral pact with Japan. Each agreement is important on its own. Together, they represent a dramatic opening of the Canadian economy and a clear shift from the managerial `culture of contentment` so derided by Canada`s global thinkers. Despite an over-riding consensus that Canada`s biggest economic challenges remain relatively low productivity and tepid innovation relative to key competitors, the country remains wedded to a small number of exportable products and services that rely, with only a few exceptions, on the U.S. market (some 26 of 1250 exported products account for over 50 per cent of all exports). Even here, perhaps half of Canada`s manufactured exports come from intra-firm transactions, e.g. Ford Canada selling to Ford United States.
Read the full article here.
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Home prices rise in third quarter, but slowdown seen coming
The average price of a two-storey home in Canada was 4 per cent higher than a year ago in the third-quarter, at $403,747, while condos saw prices rise 1.8 per cent to $243,607, according to Royal LePage`s house price survey.
But sales are slowing and prices are likely to follow suit, Royal LePage CEO Phil Soper suggested, while adding that because of low interest rates the downward pressure on prices should be `minimal.`
Read the full article here.
The average price of a two-storey home in Canada was 4 per cent higher than a year ago in the third-quarter, at $403,747, while condos saw prices rise 1.8 per cent to $243,607, according to Royal LePage`s house price survey.
But sales are slowing and prices are likely to follow suit, Royal LePage CEO Phil Soper suggested, while adding that because of low interest rates the downward pressure on prices should be `minimal.`
Read the full article here.
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Tighter mortgage rules start to take toll on high-end homes
Ottawa`s clampdown on mortgage borrowing is now gripping high-end homes, not just the entry-level market.
The federal government eliminated the approval of 30-year amortization periods on government-backed mortgages in June ` and the decision`s impact can now be seen most vividly in the cooling off of Greater Vancouver`s market, with sales falling for everything from entry-level homes to luxury houses, Bank of Montreal senior economist Sal Guatieri said Tuesday.
Read the full article here.
Ottawa`s clampdown on mortgage borrowing is now gripping high-end homes, not just the entry-level market.
The federal government eliminated the approval of 30-year amortization periods on government-backed mortgages in June ` and the decision`s impact can now be seen most vividly in the cooling off of Greater Vancouver`s market, with sales falling for everything from entry-level homes to luxury houses, Bank of Montreal senior economist Sal Guatieri said Tuesday.
Read the full article here.
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Survey shows Canadian homeowners fall out of love with their homes after five years
EMC Business - We've all heard of people getting the "seven year itch" when it comes to a monogamous relationship, but a new study commissioned by the ComFree network, the largest commission free real estate network in Canada, reveals that we may have a wandering eye when it comes to our homes as well. In fact, one in four (28 per cent) homeowners report getting the urge to move about every five years. Another 14 per cent get that itch at least once a year and five per cent say the urge to move strikes them as often as every week.
More than two thirds (69 per cent) of Canadians believe that a home says a lot about a person and must reflect their personal style and image. Women were more likely to hold this true than men (74 per cent versus 65 per cent), but the home isn't always where the heart is. Three in ten Canadians (29 per cent) say a home is just something that provides them with shelter.
Read the full article here.
EMC Business - We've all heard of people getting the "seven year itch" when it comes to a monogamous relationship, but a new study commissioned by the ComFree network, the largest commission free real estate network in Canada, reveals that we may have a wandering eye when it comes to our homes as well. In fact, one in four (28 per cent) homeowners report getting the urge to move about every five years. Another 14 per cent get that itch at least once a year and five per cent say the urge to move strikes them as often as every week.
More than two thirds (69 per cent) of Canadians believe that a home says a lot about a person and must reflect their personal style and image. Women were more likely to hold this true than men (74 per cent versus 65 per cent), but the home isn't always where the heart is. Three in ten Canadians (29 per cent) say a home is just something that provides them with shelter.
Read the full article here.
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Survey says home prices in Canada increaes, but sales slide - what should homeowners do?
TORONTO - A new survey from Royal LePage says home prices in Canada edged up in the third quarter of 2012, while the number of homes sold has decreased.
Royal LePage says fewer homes trading hands typically precedes a period of softening prices, and where there is reduced demand, home sellers adjust their asking price to stimulate interest.
Read the full article here.
TORONTO - A new survey from Royal LePage says home prices in Canada edged up in the third quarter of 2012, while the number of homes sold has decreased.
Royal LePage says fewer homes trading hands typically precedes a period of softening prices, and where there is reduced demand, home sellers adjust their asking price to stimulate interest.
Read the full article here.
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Canada to experience 'subdued growth'
The slowdown in the global economy is making its way to Canada, according to ratings agency Standard & Poor`s.
Ratings agency Standard & Poor`s says the Canadian economy is set to experience a period of "subdued" growth, with GDP expanding by 2.1 percent in 2012 and 1.9 percent in 2013.
"From the current vantage point it appears that downside risk to Canada's economy will continue to outweigh upside potential through 2013," the agency says in a report. "We expect the weakened global economy and impairment in international trade to limit growth. Domestic spending is unlikely to be a major source of growth as consumers appear to be focusing more on repairing their balance sheets and less willing to spend."
S&P believes that loose monetary policy by the Bank of Canada could have limited "effectiveness in stimulating spending as consumers appear to be more preoccupied now with the state of their household finances, something that we think will cut into their willingness to spend."
Read the full article here.
The slowdown in the global economy is making its way to Canada, according to ratings agency Standard & Poor`s.
Ratings agency Standard & Poor`s says the Canadian economy is set to experience a period of "subdued" growth, with GDP expanding by 2.1 percent in 2012 and 1.9 percent in 2013.
"From the current vantage point it appears that downside risk to Canada's economy will continue to outweigh upside potential through 2013," the agency says in a report. "We expect the weakened global economy and impairment in international trade to limit growth. Domestic spending is unlikely to be a major source of growth as consumers appear to be focusing more on repairing their balance sheets and less willing to spend."
S&P believes that loose monetary policy by the Bank of Canada could have limited "effectiveness in stimulating spending as consumers appear to be more preoccupied now with the state of their household finances, something that we think will cut into their willingness to spend."
Read the full article here.
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BoC says it's a 'myth' that new job creation all low-paying, part time
A top official of the Bank of Canada played up the bank`s `low, stable and predictable inflation` policy on Thursday, while dismissing the `myth` that recent job creation has been at the cost of `high-paying, full-time` positions.
Tiff Macklem, in a speech to the Winnipeg Chamber of Commerce, also noted that `much of the slack in the labour market has been taken up` and reiterated the central bank`s stand that interest rates will eventually be going up.
`Some commentators have suggested that while the Canadian economy has created more jobs, fewer manufacturing jobs and more service sector jobs have meant fewer high-paying full-time jobs. True, the share of service sector jobs has risen while manufacturing has declined,` Mr. Macklem said.
Read the full article here.
A top official of the Bank of Canada played up the bank`s `low, stable and predictable inflation` policy on Thursday, while dismissing the `myth` that recent job creation has been at the cost of `high-paying, full-time` positions.
Tiff Macklem, in a speech to the Winnipeg Chamber of Commerce, also noted that `much of the slack in the labour market has been taken up` and reiterated the central bank`s stand that interest rates will eventually be going up.
`Some commentators have suggested that while the Canadian economy has created more jobs, fewer manufacturing jobs and more service sector jobs have meant fewer high-paying full-time jobs. True, the share of service sector jobs has risen while manufacturing has declined,` Mr. Macklem said.
Read the full article here.
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Why housing crash is not imminent
It`s quite a sight to see the housing bears hail recent softness in the Canadian housing market as the beginning of a U.S.-style meltdown. But how can a crash be imminent when the catalyst is absent?
History indicates overvaluation alone is not a sufficient condition. Take the U.S. housing market in 2007: the overvaluation only turned into a bust after the Federal Reserve tightened monetary policy dramatically.
Read the full article here.
It`s quite a sight to see the housing bears hail recent softness in the Canadian housing market as the beginning of a U.S.-style meltdown. But how can a crash be imminent when the catalyst is absent?
History indicates overvaluation alone is not a sufficient condition. Take the U.S. housing market in 2007: the overvaluation only turned into a bust after the Federal Reserve tightened monetary policy dramatically.
Read the full article here.
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Bank of Canada busts myth of bad jobs
A top official of the Bank of Canada played up the bank's "low, stable and predictable inflation" policy on Thursday, while dismissing the "myth" that recent job creation has been at the cost of "high-paying, full-time" positions.
Tiff Macklem, in a speech to the Winnipeg Chamber of Commerce, also noted that "much of the slack in the labour market has been taken up," and he reiterated the central bank's stand that interest rates will eventually be going up.
"Some commentators have
Read the full article here.
A top official of the Bank of Canada played up the bank's "low, stable and predictable inflation" policy on Thursday, while dismissing the "myth" that recent job creation has been at the cost of "high-paying, full-time" positions.
Tiff Macklem, in a speech to the Winnipeg Chamber of Commerce, also noted that "much of the slack in the labour market has been taken up," and he reiterated the central bank's stand that interest rates will eventually be going up.
"Some commentators have
Read the full article here.