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October 2007 Research Discussion

Anonymous

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Discuss articles posted in the October 2007 Market Research thread here. No articles, please, only comments!
 

BMironov

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Hello,
To start discussussion I found interesting article in Toronto Star:
Fix-`em-up shows get makeover
(Sep 30, 2007)
http://www.thestar.com/Business/article/261911

It is interesting to see how reality shows on HGTV starting to adjust to real estate market conditions. Some of the shows "do not deliver what they tried" (fix the house and unable to sell). Plus, it seems that new crop of shows about how to use your principal residence and rent out part of it.
 

BMironov

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Hello,

This article is a bit old, but it is interesting to see as other countries see Canada. For example,
Deutsche Bank Research about Canada:
http://www.dbresearch.com/servlet/reweb2.R...?rwkey=u7460473

QUOTE Canada has been on a strict consolidation course and has been the only G8 country to record a budget surplus every year.
...
In a nutshell, Canada is an encouraging role model for Germany as its performance shows that there is a way out of government debt.
 

timk519

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QUOTE (BMironov @ Oct 1 2007, 09:59 AM) It is interesting to see how reality shows on HGTV starting to adjust to real estate market conditions. Some of the shows "do not deliver what they tried" (fix the house and unable to sell). Plus, it seems that new crop of shows about how to use your principal residence and rent out part of it. I found a recent episode of "Property Ladder" quite instructive. A trio of first-time flippers decided to take a house that was foreclosed -this- close to being finished by a previous flipper, and decided to ignore the host`s advice to just put the finishing touches on and sell the unit, and instead added addition to the back.

The smug "we know what we`re doing and don`t need you telling us anything" expressions were a tale of their own. The end result - they were $20K over budget, and didn`t get a single offer on their new house even after lowering the price by $20K.

So when dealing with real-estate, listen to what the professionals tell you!
 

BMironov

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Globe and Mail:Real estate buyout funds still bullish (Oct 3, 2007)
http://www.reportonbusiness.com/servlet/st...ry/robNews/home

QUOTE The private equity party may be over, but that news hasn`t yet made it to the real estate buyout funds, which are currently seeking $105-billion (U.S.) in new capital, a six-fold increase from January, 2006.

There are 206 real estate-focused funds in the market raising capital around the world, an explosion of growth in what was once a niche sector of private equity, according to data from London-based Private Equity Intelligence.

In 2006, 116 new funds raised a record $72-billion, and 2007 is set to surpass that amount with a total of about $75- billion to $85-billion. That`s seen further increasing to $80-billion to $100-billion in 2008, the research firm said.

This contrasts with the rest of the private equity market, which is expected to raise slightly less this year than it did in 2006, said Tim Friedman, spokesman at Private Equity Intelligence.

“Basically they look at their asset allocation studies and see real estate as offering nice steady returns that are higher than those of fixed income. It`s a very attractive place for those institutions to be,” said Mr. Jacoby, whose firm creates real estate investment portfolios tailored for mid-sized pension funds.
 

BMironov

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Financial Post:EnCana`s Deep Panuke natural gas project approved (Oct 3, 2007)
http://www.canada.com/nationalpost/financi...15f&k=83479

QUOTE The on-again, off-again Deep Panuke natural gas project got the go-ahead Wednesday from the federal and Nova Scotia governments -- even though Calgary-based EnCana Corporation`s board of directors has not yet approved the project.
...
If
EnCana`s board approves the $700-million project, Deep Panuke would produce 300 million cubic feet of natural gas per day by 2010. The field is believed to hold some 632 billion cubic feet of gas.
...
The project guarantees that out of 1.35 million person hours work in Nova Scotia, at least 850,000 hours will be done by Nova Scotians. The work will include jobs related to project engineering, design, procurement, fabrication and manufacturing.
 

BMironov

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Toronto Star:Trump fired up about Toronto tower (Oct 12, 2007)
http://www.thestar.com/News/GTA/article/266276

Not about fundamentals. Just a fact.

QUOTE The Donald flew into Toronto in his private jet today to break ground on the 57-storey Trump International Hotel & Tower.

“This will be one of the great buildings in the world,” New York developer Donald Trump told a small tented audience on the Bay St. site of the proposed skyscraper at the intersection of Bay and Adelaide Sts. in the city’s financial district.

Outside the sites, onlookers lined Bay St. with cameras hoping to catch a glimpse of the star of television’s The Apprentice.

“When we come back here in two years, everyone in Toronto will be very proud.”

Trump said more than $300 million in units had already been sold. The long-awaited building – the developer’s first in Canada – will have 118 residences and 261 hotel suites.
 

BMironov

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Globe and Mail:Central bank leaves interest rates on hold (Oct 16, 2007)
http://www.reportonbusiness.com/servlet/st...y/Business/home

QUOTE The Bank of Canada is holding its key interest rate steady at 4.5 per cent, because tighter credit conditions and a strong currency are sucking the steam out of the hot Canadian economy.

The economy is still operating in overdrive, the central bank said, but that won`t last for long.

The American economy is proving to be much weaker than expected, and growth in the Canadian economy next year will only amount to 2.3 per cent, the bank said.

Inflation continues to hover above the central bank`s two-per-cent target pace, but will move back to the target in the second half of 2008 — about six months earlier than projected in July, the bank said.
...
All told, the stronger currency and tighter credit conditions are having the equivalent effect of a rate increase of a quarter of a percentage point, the bank said, and so there is no need for the central bank itself to raise rates to cool off the Canadian economy.
 

BMironov

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Globe and Mail:Tax break not dead: Flaherty (Oct 18, 2007)
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/sto...PStory/Business

Conservatives say capital gains pledge made during 2006 election still on the agenda

QUOTE The Harper government is examining how to make good on its pledge to grant Canadians a capital gains tax break in the 2008 budget, says Finance Minister Jim Flaherty, who avoided the measure in the last two fiscal plans because of cost and design difficulties.
...
Conservatives insist the measure is back on the table as part of their medium-term agenda, even if it wasn`t mentioned in the Harper government`s new agenda-setting Throne Speech on Tuesday.
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"Canadians who invest, or inherit cottages or family heirlooms, should be able to sell those assets and plow their profits back into the economy without taking a tax hit," the Conservative platform said.
...
Separately, Mr. Flaherty signalled that Canadians will likely have to wait for any new tax breaks until the 2008 budget, expected in February or March.
 

BMironov

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After last throne speech many regions started to talk about new mega-projects (eg, transportation, infrastructure, etc).

Many of them have roots in ability of federal government to spend money. We all heard about current status of many infrastructure objects that coming to end of life span of 50 - 100 years. It was mentioned that rebuild cost of many such objects is between $40 and $200 billion. It is a lot of money to spend. Federal government started new program "Building Canada". You can read more about it at:

http://www.infrastructure.gc.ca/ip-pi/index_e.shtml

It was announced on July 4 that
http://www.infrastructure.gc.ca/ip-pi/bcip...4ottawa_e.shtml

QUOTE Worth $33 billion between 2007 and 2014, "Building Canada" provides more funding for provincial, territorial and municipal infrastructure, and for a longer period of time than any federal government since World War II. It includes base funding of $17 billion for municipalities, such as the Gas Tax Fund, which has been extended to 2014 and will be delivered at $2 billion a year starting in 2010. It also includes the 100 per cent GST rebate municipalities will continue to receive.

Example of such projects is rapid transit system in Waterloo`s region, Ontario. Cost is up to $630M. Ontario government is ready to spend 2/3 of this bill if federal money will be available.

Speech from the Throne:
http://www.sft-ddt.gc.ca/grfx/docs/sftddt-e.pdf
 

BMironov

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To be honest, I can not find any reference to particular project in Throne speech except:http://www.sft-ddt.gc.ca/grfx/docs/sftddt-e.pdf

QUOTE Our Government will announce an infrastructure program, the Building Canada Plan, to support our long-term growth. By investing in our transport and trade hubs, including the Windsor–Detroit corridor and the Atlantic and Pacific gateways, our Government will help rebuild our fundamentals for continued growth.

The result will be safer roads and bridges, shorter commutes, more competitive business, improved cultural infrastructure and a better quality of life for all Canadians.

Our Government will stand up for Canada`s traditional industries. Key sectors including forestry, fisheries, manufacturing and tourism are facing challenges. Our Government has taken action to support workers as these industries adjust to global conditions and will continue to do so in the next session.

This is all about plans to improve economy and infrastructure. How all municipalities got so excited about the speech? How Toronto Mayor gor disappointed that there is nothing for Toronto?

I would rather not to read Throne speech at all and rely on its coverage in newspapers.
(just a joke. Do not quote me on that)


8e1bb21b4e8ca5c26cdd916cd02e.jpeg
 

BMironov

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The Hamilton Spectator:Future City arrives on thespec.com Nov. 1

QUOTE It’s the year 2022 and Hamilton looks a lot different than it does today.

It’s Future City, and it`s coming to thespec.com Nov. 1

Part reality and part fantasy, Future City is an online web experience that you can play and help chart the future of Hamilton through the next century.

The premise of this web experience is that the city will age 100 years in 100 days. And you get to influence and vote on how the city morphs and adapts to dramatic changes in climate, shifts in the economy, new patterns in population and immigration as well as through many unpredictable events.


Each week from November to February, a key event will occur in the city.

And you get to vote on things like whether the city builds an underwater highway on the lakeshore to Toronto to solve gridlock, or whether a new airport is built in Flamborough, or whether ... well, we don`t want to spoil the surprise.

After votes are counted and an event occurs (or not) in the city, these new landmarks appear as high-impact visuals on an interactive map that lets you click and play individual map graphics of buildings and other icons to see how the city has evolved.
 

BMironov

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Tom Kopilas just sent me few interesting links. With his permission I post his message:
QUOTE Boris, I want to say I am very impressed with your research capabilities. WOW.

I found an article that I might have some merit as it talks about the tenant market and where its heading.

http://www.dcnonl.com/article/stats/24781

Secondly I also wanted to point you out to another news resource site which I think will help in reducing research time.

www.renx.ca

Regards,

Tom

Great article!

Daily Commerce News:
Canadian apartment tenants becoming greyer
(Oct 19, 2007)
http://www.dcnonl.com/article/stats/24781

QUOTE Recently released census data indicates that, for the first time in Canada, not only did the percentage of renting households decline (something they have done since 1976), but the absolute number also shrank by an average of 5,000 households over the five years ending 2006.

According to a recent analysis of the census data by Altus Clayton, the average number of renter households declined in just three provinces: Ontario (-7,800), British Columbia (-3,900) and Saskatchewan (-250). Two provinces saw significant increases in renting households over the 2001 to 2006 period: Qußbec, by an average of 3,700 households annually; and Alberta, by approximately 2,000 households annually.
...
At the beginning of the decade, this trend was reinforced by strong buyer affordability and strong pent-up demand. However, over the past several years, this change in the pattern of home-buying has been supported by the introduction of new, more affordable types of ownership dwellings.

While the demand for rental accommodation ebbed among those under the age of 44, it increased significantly among those aged 45 and over. In particular, the number of renter households headed by the most mature baby-boomers, i.e., those aged 55-64, increased by an average of 18,600 annually over the past five years.

This trend suggests that the market for higher-quality rental accommodation with a mature adult focus is likely to grow, despite the weakness in demand for more affordable rental space with fewer amenities.
1000.jpg


Thank you Tom!
This just gives me more energy to give something back to REIN that already altered my life.
style_emoticons
 

BMironov

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Globe and Mail:Emaar`s Canadian advance (Oct 22, 2007)
http://www.reportonbusiness.com/servlet/st...ry/robNews/home

QUOTE With its wealth, soaring towers and billions of dollars worth of construction, Dubai is a hot spot for high-rollers in real estate - and one of the biggest players there is Emaar Properties PJSC
.
...
This year, it has set up shop in Vancouver, where it`s scouting for opportunities and building a base for what Emaar hopes will be as many as 30 operations across North America within the next decade.
...
Vancouver was an obvious location from which to launch its Canadian advance, Mr. Booth says. The city has one of the highest `jobs-to-permits` ratios in North America as well as global name recognition.
...
For Mr. Booth, managing director of Emaar Canada, the job is a homecoming of sorts. Now 40, he started his urban development career in Vancouver with Concord Pacific Group Inc., which acquired Vancouver`s Expo 86 lands and has since turned the site into what the company describes as the largest, master-planned community in North America. Mr. Booth then moved to Toronto in the 1990s to work on Concord`s CityPlace project
...
In Canada, Emaar - which plans to set up divisions in Calgary and Toronto - plans to invest in residential, hotel and commercial properties and spend "several hundred million" over the next few years, Mr. Booth said.
...
Currently, the company is working on a proposal for a condominium development on Vancouver`s west side and has a townhouse project under construction in Surrey.
 

BMironov

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Globe and Mail:If an economic bubble bursts in China, will anyone notice? (Oct 24, 2007)
http://www.reportonbusiness.com/servlet/st...lumnsBlogs/home

QUOTE China in late 2007 has all the marks of a bubble economy. Construction cranes clutter the skylines of booming Chinese cities. Housing prices in Shanghai have doubled.

The main index of the Shanghai stock exchange just passed 6,000 - up more than fivefold in two years.

Stock values of leading Chinese companies have soared so high that last week a Chinese bank passed General Electric to become the world`s second-biggest company by market valuation. China now has more companies worth over $200-billion (U.S.) than any other nation, a remarkable feat for what, for all its successes, is still a developing country.

China has eight companies in the world`s top 20 by market value, compared with seven for the United States, four for Western Europe and one for Russia. That makes no real sense, and it can`t help bring to mind memories of Japan in 1989, just before its bubble burst. Japan had 14 companies in the top 20 back then.
...
True, China looks extraordinarily bubbly at the moment. Inflation hit 6.5 per cent in August, the highest in 11 years. Economic growth reached 11.9 per cent annualized in the second quarter, the fastest clip in 12 years. China`s trade surplus of $115-billion in the first half of the year was 85 per cent higher than it was a year earlier.

A number of good statistics about Chinese economy.
 

BMironov

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Toronto Star:Royal Bank to invest in clean water (Oct 25, 2007)
http://www.thestar.com/Business/article/270176

$50 million program to support conservation

QUOTE The company said the 10-year grant program, called the RBC Blue Water Project, represents the largest charitable commitment in its history. It will fund projects both within and outside Canada, including community-based initiatives aimed at local water conservation.
...
"You could say it represents Canada," she said. "The less informed might associate water shortages with developing nations, but with developed nations it`s a key issue as well."

Australia, parts of the United States, and even areas of Canada are feeling the impact of water scarcity, she added. "We think it could become and is becoming a material economic issue."

It`s not just an issue of securing clean drinking water. Many industries, including Alberta`s oil sands, require access to fresh water to operate.

Companies such as General Electric, which has been aggressively expanding its water technology business, have predicted major wars will be fought over water shortages as nations struggle to compete.
...
"Fresh water is an issue pretty much everywhere across the country."

Announcement of the project:
http://www.rbc.com/responsibility/environm...071024news.html

RBC report:
The World and the Water: http://www.rbc.com/responsibility/pdf/Fact...d-and-Water.pdf
 

BMironov

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Globe and Mail:Best place to do business? Not the U.S. (Oct 25, 2007)
http://www.reportonbusiness.com/servlet/st...ry/robNews/home

QUOTE Canada is regaining its stance as one of the world`s top places to do business.

The country climbed a notch to fourth place in the annual Economist Intelligence Unit`s business environment rankings. The U.S., meantime, tumbled to ninth from fourth place – its lowest spot since the survey began in 1997.

In the next five years, Canada, Switzerland, Hong Kong, the Netherlands and Australia will all have better business environments than the U.S., the report said.

Press release:
http://www.eiuresources.com/mediadir/defau...p?PR=2007102501
 

BMironov

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Globe and Mail:Populism tramples principle in Alberta (Oct 29, 2007)
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/sto...ory/energy/home

QUOTE Experience has taught me that populist politics are seldom principled.
...
If you poll almost any society with questions like "should the rich pay more?" or "should industry pay more?" you can count on a majority of yes answers. If you precede that poll by a government commissioned report alleging that "the people" have not been getting their "fair share," the number of yes responses will be even greater.
...
In a choice between polls and principle, the populist`s choice is predictable. Enter the populist Premier Ed Stelmach. What principles have been violated by Mr. Stelmach`s royalty decision?

The first one is reneging on the terms under which the province sold conventional oil and gas lease rights to industry. Assessing the amount to bid for new leases is a complex matter starting with the reality that the odds of finding commercial resources on any one lease are low.
...
The second matter of principle Mr. Stelmach`s government has violated is reneging on oil sands royalty commitments under which capital has already been invested. Except in the case of Syncrude and Suncor, the money was invested without a contract binding the government to honour the terms.
...
Does an owner have both the moral and legal right to unilaterally change the terms under which he is prepared to lease his property? The answer is clearly yes ... for new leases. Industry can then decide whether to buy new leases or develop new projects having consideration for the new royalty rates. Had Alberta raised royalties that would apply to leases not yet sold or for oil sands projects not yet commenced, then the rare combination of what is popular may have aligned with what is right and best.

Gwyn Morgan is the retired founding CEO of EnCana Corp. His column appears every other Monday in the ROB.
 

BMironov

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Toronto Star:Loonie hits 47-year high (Oct 29, 2007)
http://www.thestar.com/Business/article/271546

QUOTE The seemingly unstoppable Canadian dollar traded at a 47 1/2-year high Monday, hitting 104.69 cents US late in the morning.
...
Another element hurting the U.S. dollar, in relation to the loonie and other currencies, is the likelihood that the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut interest rates again this week in an attempt to boost the American economy.
 

BMironov

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Financial Post:TransCanada cautiously jumps on nuclear bandwagon (Oct 31, 2007)
http://www.canada.com/nationalpost/financi...b17&k=96844

QUOTE TransCanada Corp. has cautiously joined the list of companies interested in satisfying Alberta`s soaring power needs with nuclear energy.The Calgary-based company is doing "detailed homework" assessing the viability of nuclear as a power source in Alberta, where rivals in the atomic energy business have also been gauging public and government support.

"We think Alberta is an interesting situation [for nuclear] with the long-term supply and demand fundamentals for electricity being so good," TransCanada CEO Hal Kvisle said yesterday. "There is certainly demand for power."

Canada`s largest pipeline company also owns and operates a large fleet of gas-fired power generation facilities in Canada and the United States, as well as a majority stake in Western Ontario`s Bruce nuclear power facility.
...
Alberta today consumes about 9,000 megawatts of electricity and expectations are growth, especially from within the surging oilsands sector, should drive demand to about 14,000 megawatts by 2016.

Energy Alberta Corp., a private Calgary-based firm, is planning a $6.2-billion nuclear plant in the province`s northwest Peace Country, and in August it filed an application with the Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission for a licence to prepare a site. The 2,200-megawatt, twin-reactor facility would be built by 2017 by Energy Alberta`s partner, Atomic Energy of Canada Ltd. (AECL), using its CANDU technology. The company has an exclusivity contract with AECL for any CANDU plant built in Alberta.

Since August, Areva Canada, the Canadian arm of France`s state-owned nuclear energy conglomerate, has also made overtures and talked of building nuclear plants at the town of Whitecourt, about 150-kiloemtres northwest of Edmonton.

Mr. Kvisle cited declining gas production in Western Canada and the likelihood of higher natural gas prices in the future as a deterrent in the way of feeding Alberta`s growing power demand with gas-fired power generation.
 
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