October 2007 Market Research
- Thread starter Anonymous
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The Vancouver Sun:Electricity grid to be extended to B.C.`s northwest (Oct 2, 2007)
http://www.canada.com/vancouversun/news/bu...59e&k=58295
QUOTE British Columbia took a giant step on Monday toward the opening up of one of its last frontiers, with Premier Gordon Campbell announcing a $400-million extension of B.C.`s electrical grid into the remote northwest region.
The new transmission line will run through the northwest between a substation near Terrace and Bob Quinn Lake, which is west of Spatsizi Wilderness Park, and elicited cheers from the province`s mining and mineral exploration industries.
Galore Creek Mining Corp. will contribute $158 million toward the cost of the 247-kilovolt, 335-kilometre line -- which will provide conventional electricity to diesel-dependent remote communities, support future mine development projects, and open up a new part of the province to the development of independent power projects.
...
Dan Jepsen, president and CEO of the Association for Mineral Exploration British Columbia, expects the availability of electricity will boost mineral exploration in the region.
Prince George Citizen:
Electric Avenue (Oct 02, 2007)
http://www.princegeorgecitizen.com/index.p...&Itemid=159
QUOTE The $400-million project would extend a 287-kilovolt line 335 kilometres along Highway 37 from the Skeena substation Terrace to Meziadin Junction and north to a new substation at Bob Quinn Lake.
It will be pursued through a public-private partnership with Galore Creek Partnership, which is opening up a copper and gold mine 150 kilometres northwest of Stewart.
Galore Creek Partnership, made up of NovaGold and Teck Cominco, will contributed $158 million towards construction coast and the balance will be paid by BC Hydro and recovered through rates.
The project remains subject to environmental assessment, permitting and community and First Nation consultation, but Campbell said the plan is to get power delivered to the Bob Quinn substation by October 2009 with full project completion by fall 2011.
...
Under a 50/50 joint venture announced in May, Teck Cominco will invest an initial $478 million to fund construction costs of the $2-billion mine, and both companies will be jointly responsible for their share of funding thereafter.
It`s the largest, highest grade, undeveloped bulk minable copper-gold deposit in North America and Campbell said will create up to 1,500 construction jobs and 500 full-time jobs during operation.
http://www.canada.com/vancouversun/news/bu...59e&k=58295
QUOTE British Columbia took a giant step on Monday toward the opening up of one of its last frontiers, with Premier Gordon Campbell announcing a $400-million extension of B.C.`s electrical grid into the remote northwest region.
The new transmission line will run through the northwest between a substation near Terrace and Bob Quinn Lake, which is west of Spatsizi Wilderness Park, and elicited cheers from the province`s mining and mineral exploration industries.
Galore Creek Mining Corp. will contribute $158 million toward the cost of the 247-kilovolt, 335-kilometre line -- which will provide conventional electricity to diesel-dependent remote communities, support future mine development projects, and open up a new part of the province to the development of independent power projects.
...
Dan Jepsen, president and CEO of the Association for Mineral Exploration British Columbia, expects the availability of electricity will boost mineral exploration in the region.
Prince George Citizen:
Electric Avenue (Oct 02, 2007)
http://www.princegeorgecitizen.com/index.p...&Itemid=159
QUOTE The $400-million project would extend a 287-kilovolt line 335 kilometres along Highway 37 from the Skeena substation Terrace to Meziadin Junction and north to a new substation at Bob Quinn Lake.
It will be pursued through a public-private partnership with Galore Creek Partnership, which is opening up a copper and gold mine 150 kilometres northwest of Stewart.
Galore Creek Partnership, made up of NovaGold and Teck Cominco, will contributed $158 million towards construction coast and the balance will be paid by BC Hydro and recovered through rates.
The project remains subject to environmental assessment, permitting and community and First Nation consultation, but Campbell said the plan is to get power delivered to the Bob Quinn substation by October 2009 with full project completion by fall 2011.
...
Under a 50/50 joint venture announced in May, Teck Cominco will invest an initial $478 million to fund construction costs of the $2-billion mine, and both companies will be jointly responsible for their share of funding thereafter.
It`s the largest, highest grade, undeveloped bulk minable copper-gold deposit in North America and Campbell said will create up to 1,500 construction jobs and 500 full-time jobs during operation.
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Globe and Mail:Booming grain prices put a spring in farmers` steps (Oct 1, 2007)
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/sto...PStory/National
QUOTE As the price of wheat soars to levels not seen in 30 years, Canadian grain farmers are riding a wave of global demand that could change the nature of food markets for decades to come.
In the past year, wheat prices have climbed almost 50 per cent to more than $7 a bushel, durum has doubled and feed barley is up 70 per cent.
...
The surge is driven by rising prosperity in Asia and Latin America. A growing middle class is changing its diet to include a wider variety of foods, including dairy, beef and pork raised on grains, or breads and pasta from wheat and durum.
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Another major factor is the ethanol boom in the United States, which has driven up the price of corn and has led farmers in the Midwest to plant more acres than in any year since the Second World War. The massive shift to corn production has reduced the world supply of other grains normally used as animal feed, and caused their prices to rise.
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The third trend is the changing global weather pattern. Australia is in its second straight year of severe drought, which will reduce global grain supplies.
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"People are talking about a historic corn yield in the U.S., in some places they say it could be over 200 bushels an acre ... So sure, we`ve seen a big spike in demand from biofuels, but now we`re going to see a huge spike in supply. We may be having a conversation in three years` time talking about how low corn prices are."
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/sto...PStory/National
QUOTE As the price of wheat soars to levels not seen in 30 years, Canadian grain farmers are riding a wave of global demand that could change the nature of food markets for decades to come.
In the past year, wheat prices have climbed almost 50 per cent to more than $7 a bushel, durum has doubled and feed barley is up 70 per cent.
...
The surge is driven by rising prosperity in Asia and Latin America. A growing middle class is changing its diet to include a wider variety of foods, including dairy, beef and pork raised on grains, or breads and pasta from wheat and durum.
...
Another major factor is the ethanol boom in the United States, which has driven up the price of corn and has led farmers in the Midwest to plant more acres than in any year since the Second World War. The massive shift to corn production has reduced the world supply of other grains normally used as animal feed, and caused their prices to rise.
...
The third trend is the changing global weather pattern. Australia is in its second straight year of severe drought, which will reduce global grain supplies.
...
"People are talking about a historic corn yield in the U.S., in some places they say it could be over 200 bushels an acre ... So sure, we`ve seen a big spike in demand from biofuels, but now we`re going to see a huge spike in supply. We may be having a conversation in three years` time talking about how low corn prices are."
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The Hamilton Spectator:New highway could bring 170,000 jobs: study (Sep 27, 2007)
http://thespec.com/article/254521
QUOTE new highway from Fort Erie through Hamilton to Toronto would create tens of thousands of jobs and generate billions in added income.
If it`s built, they say, Hamilton and Niagara would see their projected average annual growth rate of 1.03 per cent almost triple to 2.73 per cent, bringing 130,000 to 170,000 jobs and $7 billion to $9 billion in new income.
On the other hand, they say, doing nothing to ease road and rail congestion could mean the loss of existing business, costing the area more than $2.4 billion and 30,000 jobs over the next quarter-century.
72-page report (8.59M):
http://www.myhamilton.ca/NR/rdonlyres/A97B...Sep26Item61.pdf
Project`s web site:
http://www.niagara-gta.com/
Growth Plan for Golden horseshoe:
http://www.niagara-gta.com/pdf/Growth%20Pl...20Horseshoe.pdf
Please note, this is "work in progress". It is at stage of discussion and not at the "breaking ground" level.
http://thespec.com/article/254521
QUOTE new highway from Fort Erie through Hamilton to Toronto would create tens of thousands of jobs and generate billions in added income.
If it`s built, they say, Hamilton and Niagara would see their projected average annual growth rate of 1.03 per cent almost triple to 2.73 per cent, bringing 130,000 to 170,000 jobs and $7 billion to $9 billion in new income.
On the other hand, they say, doing nothing to ease road and rail congestion could mean the loss of existing business, costing the area more than $2.4 billion and 30,000 jobs over the next quarter-century.
72-page report (8.59M):
http://www.myhamilton.ca/NR/rdonlyres/A97B...Sep26Item61.pdf
Project`s web site:
http://www.niagara-gta.com/
Growth Plan for Golden horseshoe:
http://www.niagara-gta.com/pdf/Growth%20Pl...20Horseshoe.pdf
Please note, this is "work in progress". It is at stage of discussion and not at the "breaking ground" level.
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- Messages
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Globe and Mail:Booming Calgary office market prompts Oxford to build second tower (Oct 2, 2007)
http://www.reportonbusiness.com/servlet/st...ry/robNews/home
QUOTE Construction of the 23-storey, 443,000 square foot building will begin immediately, and should be ready for occupancy by December, 2009, Oxford said in a release. It`s the second phase of the company`s Centennial Place development in downtown Calgary, which will consist of two towers along with retail space and a parking garage.
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Phase One, a 40-storey, 800,000 square foot tower, is 43 per cent pre-leased by tenants including law firms Borden Ladner Gervais LLP and MacPherson Leslie & Tyerman LLP, along with oil and gas data services and consulting firm Divestco Inc.
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In Calgary, 15.9 per cent of the city`s office inventory will be built over the next five years, compared with 4.6 per cent of Toronto`s, Mr. Wong said. However Toronto`s vacancy rate will rise to 12 to 13 per cent over that time, about double that of the 6 to 8 per cent expected in Calgary. Current office vacancy rates are about 2 per cent in Calgary, and 5 per cent in Toronto.
Businesses are coming to Calgary
http://www.reportonbusiness.com/servlet/st...ry/robNews/home
QUOTE Construction of the 23-storey, 443,000 square foot building will begin immediately, and should be ready for occupancy by December, 2009, Oxford said in a release. It`s the second phase of the company`s Centennial Place development in downtown Calgary, which will consist of two towers along with retail space and a parking garage.
...
Phase One, a 40-storey, 800,000 square foot tower, is 43 per cent pre-leased by tenants including law firms Borden Ladner Gervais LLP and MacPherson Leslie & Tyerman LLP, along with oil and gas data services and consulting firm Divestco Inc.
...
In Calgary, 15.9 per cent of the city`s office inventory will be built over the next five years, compared with 4.6 per cent of Toronto`s, Mr. Wong said. However Toronto`s vacancy rate will rise to 12 to 13 per cent over that time, about double that of the 6 to 8 per cent expected in Calgary. Current office vacancy rates are about 2 per cent in Calgary, and 5 per cent in Toronto.
Businesses are coming to Calgary
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Globe and Mail:How the Chinese dragon brought prosperity to Canada (Oct 3, 2007)
http://www.reportonbusiness.com/servlet/st...lumnsBlogs/home
QUOTE For a generation or more, we have lived in an era of more or less stable prices. In fact, for many of the things we need in our everyday lives, prices have been going down. According to the Bank of Canada, prices for "durables excluding autos" fell 13.4 per cent between 1995 and 2006.
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over the period 2001 to 2006, the flow of cheap goods from China has reduced Canada`s annual inflation rate by about 0.1 per cent. That may not seem like much, but it means billions of dollars in the pockets of ordinary Canadians, something to remember the next time politicians or union leaders go on about how Chinese competition is threatening our prosperity.
"In the coming years," Mr. Morel concludes, "Canada`s increasing imports of inexpensive goods from China will continue to act as a disinflationary source on the Canadian total inflation rate."
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In other words, China doesn`t hold down inflation by producing cheaper and cheaper goods. It holds down inflation because the relatively cheap price of the goods it exports to our shores keeps down the price of competing items here.
Bank of Canada report
"The Direct Effect of China on Canadian Consumer Prices: An Empirical Assessment":
http://www.bankofcanada.ca/en/res/dp/2007/dp07-10.pdf
http://www.reportonbusiness.com/servlet/st...lumnsBlogs/home
QUOTE For a generation or more, we have lived in an era of more or less stable prices. In fact, for many of the things we need in our everyday lives, prices have been going down. According to the Bank of Canada, prices for "durables excluding autos" fell 13.4 per cent between 1995 and 2006.
...
over the period 2001 to 2006, the flow of cheap goods from China has reduced Canada`s annual inflation rate by about 0.1 per cent. That may not seem like much, but it means billions of dollars in the pockets of ordinary Canadians, something to remember the next time politicians or union leaders go on about how Chinese competition is threatening our prosperity.
"In the coming years," Mr. Morel concludes, "Canada`s increasing imports of inexpensive goods from China will continue to act as a disinflationary source on the Canadian total inflation rate."
...
In other words, China doesn`t hold down inflation by producing cheaper and cheaper goods. It holds down inflation because the relatively cheap price of the goods it exports to our shores keeps down the price of competing items here.
Bank of Canada report
"The Direct Effect of China on Canadian Consumer Prices: An Empirical Assessment":
http://www.bankofcanada.ca/en/res/dp/2007/dp07-10.pdf
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Globe and Mail:Prepare for the Canadian Invasion, Cramer warns (Oct 3, 2007)
http://www.reportonbusiness.com/servlet/st...ry/robNews/home
QUOTE Jim Cramer, the world`s loudest stock market commentator, figures Toronto-Dominion Bank`s [TD-T]audacious $8-billion-plus plan to buy New Jersey`s Commerce Bancorp Inc. [CBH-N] is just the start of a coming blitzkrieg of U.S. takeovers by other Canadian banks, fuelled by the strength of the loonie and their own high stock prices.
...
Adding to the Canadian banks` incentive is that, even adjusting for the currency, most of their stocks are well up from a year ago, he said, citing a 31 per cent gain for Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, 25 per cent for Royal Bank of Canada, 21.3 per cent for Bank of Nova Scotia and 19 per cent for TD. “Only lowly worm BMO . . . has lagged the loonie, up a mere 6.6 per cent,” he added of Bank of Montreal.
By contrast, most of the U.S. banks on his list are down 10 per cent on average, year over year.
...
“Bottom line,” concluded Mr. Cramer, “the Canadians are coming. Don`t get left behind.”
http://www.reportonbusiness.com/servlet/st...ry/robNews/home
QUOTE Jim Cramer, the world`s loudest stock market commentator, figures Toronto-Dominion Bank`s [TD-T]audacious $8-billion-plus plan to buy New Jersey`s Commerce Bancorp Inc. [CBH-N] is just the start of a coming blitzkrieg of U.S. takeovers by other Canadian banks, fuelled by the strength of the loonie and their own high stock prices.
...
Adding to the Canadian banks` incentive is that, even adjusting for the currency, most of their stocks are well up from a year ago, he said, citing a 31 per cent gain for Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, 25 per cent for Royal Bank of Canada, 21.3 per cent for Bank of Nova Scotia and 19 per cent for TD. “Only lowly worm BMO . . . has lagged the loonie, up a mere 6.6 per cent,” he added of Bank of Montreal.
By contrast, most of the U.S. banks on his list are down 10 per cent on average, year over year.
...
“Bottom line,” concluded Mr. Cramer, “the Canadians are coming. Don`t get left behind.”
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Financial PostCleveland developer enters Toronto market with $150M project (Oct 3, 2007)
http://www.canada.com/nationalpost/financi...8b8&k=45319
QUOTE A major American real estate investment trust announced plans on Wednesday to enter the Canadian marketplace...
Cleveland-based Developers Diversified Realty, which has a market capitalization of about US$7-billion, said it is a partner in a 74-acre project north of Toronto to be developed for $150-million.
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"With this investment, Developers Diversified is giving a strong vote of confidence to the future of the Canadian retail real estate market. The REIT recognizes the positive fundamentals in Canada, including its strong demographic growth, relatively high per capita income and constrained supply of new retail properties,"
...
The U.S. REIT said it will take a 50% equity stake in the project to be located in Richmond Hill. It is a mixed used development with 700,000 square feet of lifestyle, retail and office space. Developers Diversified is teaming up with Rice Commercial Group on the project which will begun construction in 2009 and open as early as 2011.
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"It is not likely to be worth the REIT`s efforts to come to Canada by making occasional investments in one-off projects that will take four years to complete. Rather, we would not be surprised if Developers Diversified, with its positive view of Canada, attempts to make much larger retail investments in this country in the short to medium term, perhaps by way of a takeover of an existing REIT or real estate operating company," said the analyst.
...
Interestingly enough, the U.S. REIT`s top posted item on its Web site under what`s new is an overview of the Canadian marketplace. The company notes Canada is the world`s 8th largest economy with a gross domestic product of $1.3-trillion. In addition, Toronto is said to have generated $50-billion in retail sales last year.
It notes the wealth of residents surrounding the Richmond Hill location where it plans to build. "Over 470,000 residents with an average household income of $112,000 live within a 10 kilometre radius of the development site. These figures increase to over 1.1 million residents with an average household income of $98,000 that live within a 15 kilometre radius.
In Rice Commercial, Developers Diversified is teaming up with a company focused on the greater Toronto area. It owns and manages the development of 500 hundred acres of property with more than three million square feet of predominantly retail assets.
Developers Diversified presentation:
http://www.ddr.com/Canada%20RE%20Market%20...mber%202007.pdf
Press release:
http://media.corporate-ir.net/media_files/...nadian10207.pdf
http://www.canada.com/nationalpost/financi...8b8&k=45319
QUOTE A major American real estate investment trust announced plans on Wednesday to enter the Canadian marketplace...
Cleveland-based Developers Diversified Realty, which has a market capitalization of about US$7-billion, said it is a partner in a 74-acre project north of Toronto to be developed for $150-million.
...
"With this investment, Developers Diversified is giving a strong vote of confidence to the future of the Canadian retail real estate market. The REIT recognizes the positive fundamentals in Canada, including its strong demographic growth, relatively high per capita income and constrained supply of new retail properties,"
...
The U.S. REIT said it will take a 50% equity stake in the project to be located in Richmond Hill. It is a mixed used development with 700,000 square feet of lifestyle, retail and office space. Developers Diversified is teaming up with Rice Commercial Group on the project which will begun construction in 2009 and open as early as 2011.
...
"It is not likely to be worth the REIT`s efforts to come to Canada by making occasional investments in one-off projects that will take four years to complete. Rather, we would not be surprised if Developers Diversified, with its positive view of Canada, attempts to make much larger retail investments in this country in the short to medium term, perhaps by way of a takeover of an existing REIT or real estate operating company," said the analyst.
...
Interestingly enough, the U.S. REIT`s top posted item on its Web site under what`s new is an overview of the Canadian marketplace. The company notes Canada is the world`s 8th largest economy with a gross domestic product of $1.3-trillion. In addition, Toronto is said to have generated $50-billion in retail sales last year.
It notes the wealth of residents surrounding the Richmond Hill location where it plans to build. "Over 470,000 residents with an average household income of $112,000 live within a 10 kilometre radius of the development site. These figures increase to over 1.1 million residents with an average household income of $98,000 that live within a 15 kilometre radius.
In Rice Commercial, Developers Diversified is teaming up with a company focused on the greater Toronto area. It owns and manages the development of 500 hundred acres of property with more than three million square feet of predominantly retail assets.
Developers Diversified presentation:
http://www.ddr.com/Canada%20RE%20Market%20...mber%202007.pdf
Press release:
http://media.corporate-ir.net/media_files/...nadian10207.pdf
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Statistics Canada (Oct 4, 2007)http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/071004/d071004.pdf
Building permits, August 2007 (Oct 4, 2007)
http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/071004/d071004a.htm
QUOTE The value of building permits surpassed the $6-billion mark for the fourth consecutive month in August with strong performances in both residential and non-residential sectors.
The comparison of non-seasonally adjusted data showed that municipalities authorized a total of 161,510 new dwellings between January and August 2007, up 2.5% from the same period in 2006. In the United States, during the same period, the number of privately-owned approved units plunged 24.9%.
For example, % change (Jan-Aug 2006 -- Jan-Aug 2007)
Ottawa–Gatineau (Ont. part): +9.4%
Toronto: +18.3%
Hamilton: +26.8%
Regina: +25.4%
Saskatoon: +55.0%
Calgary: +29.1%
Edmonton: +26.2%
Vancouver: +22.6%
Building permits, August 2007 (Oct 4, 2007)
http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/071004/d071004a.htm
QUOTE The value of building permits surpassed the $6-billion mark for the fourth consecutive month in August with strong performances in both residential and non-residential sectors.
The comparison of non-seasonally adjusted data showed that municipalities authorized a total of 161,510 new dwellings between January and August 2007, up 2.5% from the same period in 2006. In the United States, during the same period, the number of privately-owned approved units plunged 24.9%.
For example, % change (Jan-Aug 2006 -- Jan-Aug 2007)
Ottawa–Gatineau (Ont. part): +9.4%
Toronto: +18.3%
Hamilton: +26.8%
Regina: +25.4%
Saskatoon: +55.0%
Calgary: +29.1%
Edmonton: +26.2%
Vancouver: +22.6%
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TD Economics:TD Quarterly Economic Forecast (Oct 4, 2007)
Financial turmoil deals an economic blow - not a knock out punch
http://www.td.com/economics/qef/qefoct07.pdf
QUOTE
Press Release:
http://www.td.com/economics/qef/qefoct07_pr.pdf
Financial turmoil deals an economic blow - not a knock out punch
http://www.td.com/economics/qef/qefoct07.pdf
QUOTE
- Canadian real GDP growth to average 2.4% in second half of 2007 and 2.3% in 2008
- Canadian dollar to remain close, or slightly above, parity over the next six months Combination of strong loonie and US weakness will hamper selected Canadian industries, including: manufacturing, tourism and hospitality US real GDP to post similar gain to Canada in 2008. But, unlike Canada, the US will undershoot their potential growth by wide margin
Press Release:
http://www.td.com/economics/qef/qefoct07_pr.pdf
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RBC Economics (Provincial Current Trends):Western provinces powering Canada`s jobs bonanza (Sep 2007)
http://www.rbc.com/economics/market/pdf/provtrend.pdf
QUOTE August’s employment report showed that overall job gains for the first eight months of the year were up an estimated 232,000. The unemployment rate held at its lowest level since 1974 and wage growth continued to firm. The average hourly wage rate for permanent workers was up 3.8% year-over-year in August, marking the fastest pace of increase in a year and the fifth consecutive month of solid gains.
Tight labour markets provide yet another piece of evidence that Canada’s domestic economy is still on firm footing despite some weakness in job markets now evident in the United States (chart 1). Healthy job growth, an historically low unemployment rate and the recent acceleration in wage growth highlights the fact that Canada’s economy is operating above its capacity limits.
The strength in Canada’s headline national number is largely the result of the ongoing strength in western job markets. Alberta, British Columbia and Saskatchewan — in that order — are the clear leaders on the labour market front (chart 2), clocking in the strongest pace of job gains, the lowest unemployment rates and the fastestgrowing labour forces.
http://www.rbc.com/economics/market/pdf/provtrend.pdf
QUOTE August’s employment report showed that overall job gains for the first eight months of the year were up an estimated 232,000. The unemployment rate held at its lowest level since 1974 and wage growth continued to firm. The average hourly wage rate for permanent workers was up 3.8% year-over-year in August, marking the fastest pace of increase in a year and the fifth consecutive month of solid gains.
Tight labour markets provide yet another piece of evidence that Canada’s domestic economy is still on firm footing despite some weakness in job markets now evident in the United States (chart 1). Healthy job growth, an historically low unemployment rate and the recent acceleration in wage growth highlights the fact that Canada’s economy is operating above its capacity limits.
The strength in Canada’s headline national number is largely the result of the ongoing strength in western job markets. Alberta, British Columbia and Saskatchewan — in that order — are the clear leaders on the labour market front (chart 2), clocking in the strongest pace of job gains, the lowest unemployment rates and the fastestgrowing labour forces.
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RBC Economics (Canadian City Trends): Housing valuations point to frothy markets in major western Canadian cities (Sep 2007)
http://www.rbc.com/economics/market/pdf/citytrend.pdf
QUOTE The recent resilience demonstrated by Canada’s housing markets has begged the question about the sustainability of the current housing cycle. A fundamental factor affecting housing demand is relative house prices. Raw price trends are misleading because they are not adjusted for inflationary pressures and because real estate is priced locally and differs vastly across markets. A rapid run-up in house prices is not necessarily a sign of an overvalued market. By looking at an alternative housing valuation measure using the asset-pricing approach, we attempt to shed some light on factors driving markets in major cities and to evaluate those that are starting to look frothy by this measure.
http://www.rbc.com/economics/market/pdf/citytrend.pdf
QUOTE The recent resilience demonstrated by Canada’s housing markets has begged the question about the sustainability of the current housing cycle. A fundamental factor affecting housing demand is relative house prices. Raw price trends are misleading because they are not adjusted for inflationary pressures and because real estate is priced locally and differs vastly across markets. A rapid run-up in house prices is not necessarily a sign of an overvalued market. By looking at an alternative housing valuation measure using the asset-pricing approach, we attempt to shed some light on factors driving markets in major cities and to evaluate those that are starting to look frothy by this measure.
- A look beyond our standard affordability measure
- Rising price-to-rent ratios partly justified
- Regional disparities behind soaring price-to-rent ratios
- Highest price-rent ratios in Victoria and Vancouver
- Moderation in the cards for Calgary and Edmonton Saskatoon the lone Prairie outlier Stability in Toronto and Ottawa Quebec’s price-to-rent ratios pushed higher Atlantic Canada markets re-balancing
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BMO Capital MarketsRates scenario (Oct 2, 2007)
http://www.bmonesbittburns.com/economics/r...71002/rates.pdf
QUOTE
http://www.bmonesbittburns.com/economics/r...71002/rates.pdf
QUOTE
- Bank of Canada will likely keep its policy rate unchanged through year-end as downside inflation risks posed by a stronger Canadian dollar, tighter credit conditions and dimmer U.S. prospects balance off against upside domestic risks from hot housing and tight labour markets. However, the former will eventually tip the scale (the C$`s packing weight), and the rate cuts will come. We`ve penciled one in for January 2008.
- In the interim, the loonie looks to fly further above parity (a test of the 1970s` intraday high of 1.0443 US$/C$ cannot be ruled out), as a weak U.S. dollar, further Fed rate cuts and firm commodity prices continue to provide lift.
U.S. Federal Reserve to continue easing through the turn of the year (funds target at 4%), as the risk of a housing-led recession mounts.
The U.S. dollar continues hitting new lows on a trade-weighed basis against the majors as the Fed eases further.
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Globe and Mail:Fear of foreign takeovers unwarranted, PM says (Oct 4, 2007)
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/sto...PStory/Business
QUOTE "I think it`s probably only a matter of time before we hear the alarms about hollowing out of the American economy by Canada," Mr. Harper said, noting recent inroads by Canadian banks into the U.S., including Toronto-Dominion Bank`s $8.5-billion (U.S.) bid for Commerce Bancorp Inc. He also sought to reassure global capital that Ottawa is not erecting a wall against outside investors as it adds national security to the criteria for screening buyouts by non-Canadians.
...
"The fact of the matter in the case of Canada: inflows and outflows of foreign investment have been growing during a period of globalization and in fact, for the most part, outward foreign investment flows have been bigger than inward foreign investment flows," the Prime Minister said.
Mr. Harper, an economist by training, played down the apparent rise in domestic anxiety about increased foreign investment in this country.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/sto...PStory/Business
QUOTE "I think it`s probably only a matter of time before we hear the alarms about hollowing out of the American economy by Canada," Mr. Harper said, noting recent inroads by Canadian banks into the U.S., including Toronto-Dominion Bank`s $8.5-billion (U.S.) bid for Commerce Bancorp Inc. He also sought to reassure global capital that Ottawa is not erecting a wall against outside investors as it adds national security to the criteria for screening buyouts by non-Canadians.
...
"The fact of the matter in the case of Canada: inflows and outflows of foreign investment have been growing during a period of globalization and in fact, for the most part, outward foreign investment flows have been bigger than inward foreign investment flows," the Prime Minister said.
Mr. Harper, an economist by training, played down the apparent rise in domestic anxiety about increased foreign investment in this country.
- Joined
- Aug 29, 2007
- Messages
- 597
Statistics Canada:Labour Force Survey (Oct 5, 2007)
http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/071005/d071005.pdf
QUOTE The unemployment rate dipped 0.1 percentage points to 5.9% in September, the first time since November 1974 that the rate has been below 6.0%. The decline in the rate occurred as employment rose by an estimated 51,000, with gains concentrated in full-time employment.
So far in 2007, employment has grown by 1.7% (+283,000), a rate of growth higher than that observed over the first nine months of 2006 (+1.3%).
Highlights:
Canadian labour market: HOT HOT HOT (Oct 5, 2007)
http://www.td.com/economics/comment/bc100507_can.pdf
http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/071005/d071005.pdf
QUOTE The unemployment rate dipped 0.1 percentage points to 5.9% in September, the first time since November 1974 that the rate has been below 6.0%. The decline in the rate occurred as employment rose by an estimated 51,000, with gains concentrated in full-time employment.
So far in 2007, employment has grown by 1.7% (+283,000), a rate of growth higher than that observed over the first nine months of 2006 (+1.3%).
Highlights:
- Employment in education rebounds from losses at end of school year
- Public-sector strength in 2007
- Employment continues to boom for older workersEmployment gains in Ontario and Saskatchewan
Total growth for the province so far in the year to 1.2% (+77,000).Employment growth in Alberta strongest in 2007
The strongest employment growth over the first nine months of 2007 occurred in Alberta, up 3.4%, with gains across a number of industries.
Canadian labour market: HOT HOT HOT (Oct 5, 2007)
http://www.td.com/economics/comment/bc100507_can.pdf
- Joined
- Aug 29, 2007
- Messages
- 597
REIN Member Bill Keay posted interesting link to article in The Record
'Sportsworld Crossing' bucks big-box trend (Oct 5, 2007)
http://news.therecord.com/News/CanadaWorld/article/251916
New owner wants smaller stores, offices in 'downzoned' project
QUOTE
Intermarket, which is developing the 40-acre property on behalf of the new owners, GPM Managed Investments of Toronto, could have put up stores as large as 100,000 square feet.
Instead it opted for shops and retail tenants no larger than 15,000 to 20,000 square feet in area.
...
Construction of the buildings will begin next month and the owners predict the project will bring about 1,000 new jobs to the area. Melloul-Blamey Construction is the general contractor.
The grand opening is expected in 12 to 14 months, Kindrachuk said.
The project will feature about 300,000 square feet of office space and another 250,000 square feet of retail space.
The site is a triangle, bounded by King Street, Sportsworld Drive and Highway 8.
There is an interesting article in REX magazine about price of commercial land:
http://www.rexmagazine.ca/rexmagazine/issu...07_1054758.html
Thank you Bill,
Boris
'Sportsworld Crossing' bucks big-box trend (Oct 5, 2007)
http://news.therecord.com/News/CanadaWorld/article/251916
New owner wants smaller stores, offices in 'downzoned' project
QUOTE
Intermarket, which is developing the 40-acre property on behalf of the new owners, GPM Managed Investments of Toronto, could have put up stores as large as 100,000 square feet.
Instead it opted for shops and retail tenants no larger than 15,000 to 20,000 square feet in area.
...
Construction of the buildings will begin next month and the owners predict the project will bring about 1,000 new jobs to the area. Melloul-Blamey Construction is the general contractor.
The grand opening is expected in 12 to 14 months, Kindrachuk said.
The project will feature about 300,000 square feet of office space and another 250,000 square feet of retail space.
The site is a triangle, bounded by King Street, Sportsworld Drive and Highway 8.
There is an interesting article in REX magazine about price of commercial land:
http://www.rexmagazine.ca/rexmagazine/issu...07_1054758.html
Thank you Bill,
Boris
- Joined
- Aug 29, 2007
- Messages
- 597
Globe and Mail:Towers built on fast food fortune (Oct 5, 2007)
QUOTE A Korean entrepreneur who has built an empire from a fried chicken chain is set to transform central Surrey into one of the biggest urban hubs outside of Vancouver.
Hee Yong Yang, who also goes by Edmond Yang, yesterday announced his plan for a 40-storey, two-tower complex called Sky Towers - his second massive project in the area.
In a few weeks, suites for the complex near the King George SkyTrain station will go on sale starting at $179,900.
One tower will stand at 40 storeys - touted as the highest residential tower in B.C. outside of Vancouver. The other tower will be 36 storeys high, with a combined total of 900 units. Construction starts in two months and the move-in date is set for 2010.
...
Considering that condo prices in downtown Vancouver are estimated to be $800 to $1,500 per square foot, Surrey`s price of $450 to $550 is reasonable.
"Surrey is, population-wise, one of the fastest growing cities in Canada, right?" asks Byron Lee, lawyer and vice-president of Mr. Yang`s Young In Development company. "Every year is a net increase of 10,000 in Surrey. The demand is there."
...
His cornerstone project, already under way and located across the street from the future Sky Towers, is a five-tower complex called Infinity Towers that will be comprised of 2,000 units upon completion. The massive Infinity and Sky Towers projects combined are valued at $1-billion, and Mr. Yang won`t stop there.
The Vancouver sun:
Sky Towers to help transform Surrey Central (Oct 5, 2007)
http://www.canada.com/vancouversun/news/bu...27-3c8b1dbd732b
QUOTE The 36-storey and 40-storey residential Sky Towers will be directly across the street from the five Infinity highrises being built at the King George SkyTrain station in the formerly run-down Whalley neighbourhood.
...
"This really fits into our vision for our city centre," Watts said. "The seven towers here are going to be just the cornerstone for the whole entrance into city centre."
She said applications are being processed for several more towers, both residential and commercial, over the next five years.
...
Designed by Patrick Cotter Architects, Sky Towers will contain 900 one- and two-bedroom suites, as well as 56 townhouses, with studios starting at $179,900.
Each tower will include a 1,000-square-foot rooftop solarium with 50-foot glass atriums, along with a 4,000 square foot rooftop patio offering unrestricted views.
The 36-storey Sky Tower is scheduled for completion in 2010, followed by the 40-storey tower.
...
At its heart is the Surrey campus of Simon Fraser University, along with shops, restaurants and recreational facilities, all within walking distance of SkyTrain.
"If we look ahead five or 10 years, Central City is going to be one of the most significant urban centres in Western Canada," McNeill said in an interview. "Surrey is one of Canada`s fastest growing cities and this is their downtown core."
QUOTE A Korean entrepreneur who has built an empire from a fried chicken chain is set to transform central Surrey into one of the biggest urban hubs outside of Vancouver.
Hee Yong Yang, who also goes by Edmond Yang, yesterday announced his plan for a 40-storey, two-tower complex called Sky Towers - his second massive project in the area.
In a few weeks, suites for the complex near the King George SkyTrain station will go on sale starting at $179,900.
One tower will stand at 40 storeys - touted as the highest residential tower in B.C. outside of Vancouver. The other tower will be 36 storeys high, with a combined total of 900 units. Construction starts in two months and the move-in date is set for 2010.
...
Considering that condo prices in downtown Vancouver are estimated to be $800 to $1,500 per square foot, Surrey`s price of $450 to $550 is reasonable.
"Surrey is, population-wise, one of the fastest growing cities in Canada, right?" asks Byron Lee, lawyer and vice-president of Mr. Yang`s Young In Development company. "Every year is a net increase of 10,000 in Surrey. The demand is there."
...
His cornerstone project, already under way and located across the street from the future Sky Towers, is a five-tower complex called Infinity Towers that will be comprised of 2,000 units upon completion. The massive Infinity and Sky Towers projects combined are valued at $1-billion, and Mr. Yang won`t stop there.
The Vancouver sun:
Sky Towers to help transform Surrey Central (Oct 5, 2007)
http://www.canada.com/vancouversun/news/bu...27-3c8b1dbd732b
QUOTE The 36-storey and 40-storey residential Sky Towers will be directly across the street from the five Infinity highrises being built at the King George SkyTrain station in the formerly run-down Whalley neighbourhood.
...
"This really fits into our vision for our city centre," Watts said. "The seven towers here are going to be just the cornerstone for the whole entrance into city centre."
She said applications are being processed for several more towers, both residential and commercial, over the next five years.
...
Designed by Patrick Cotter Architects, Sky Towers will contain 900 one- and two-bedroom suites, as well as 56 townhouses, with studios starting at $179,900.
Each tower will include a 1,000-square-foot rooftop solarium with 50-foot glass atriums, along with a 4,000 square foot rooftop patio offering unrestricted views.
The 36-storey Sky Tower is scheduled for completion in 2010, followed by the 40-storey tower.
...
At its heart is the Surrey campus of Simon Fraser University, along with shops, restaurants and recreational facilities, all within walking distance of SkyTrain.
"If we look ahead five or 10 years, Central City is going to be one of the most significant urban centres in Western Canada," McNeill said in an interview. "Surrey is one of Canada`s fastest growing cities and this is their downtown core."
- Joined
- Aug 29, 2007
- Messages
- 597
Globe and MailThe ultimate fixer-upper (Oct 6, 2007)
http://www.reportonbusiness.com/servlet/st...ry/robNews/home
Only this time it is Morningside Mall in Scarborough, ON. First Capital Reality Inc., a redevelopment specialist, which purchased the mall for $13-million in 2004. There is a new (or "new-again") trend in mall industry. It is called "vintage malls".
QUOTE There will be few mourners when a wrecking ball demolishes the aging Morningside Mall this month, and an emblem of Canadian suburbia is razed to make way for a new outdoor shopping centre.
...
Rather than ride the likes of Stretch-A-Buck to their last dollar, the company sees a new dawn for Morningside – and many more so-called vintage malls. After the mall`s demolition, First Capital will complete a property makeover that its chief executive officer, Dori Segal, believes will not only spruce up this corner of Scarborough, but profit from the fast-rising incomes and home values of a community that runs down to the stunning white bluffs on Lake Ontario; no small reason his new mall will include a Shoppers Drug Mart and that ubiquitous symbol of urban renewal, a Starbucks.
...
Nothing is more revealing than the statistic that not a single enclosed mall is opening in the United States this year. ... Twenty years ago, 60 to 70 enclosed malls opened south of the border every year.
...
According to Mr. Lambert, one of Canada`s most progressive redevelopment projects is the Don Mills Centre, located northeast of downtown Toronto.
...
At Morningside, the signs of renewal are beginning to appear, in the form of landscaping, interlocking brick and new lighting. While a shopping mall doesn`t make a community, it can certainly help with its improvement, said David Sloane, associate professor of urban planning and development and history at the University of Southern California.
"I`ve never seen anyone quantify this, but it clearly has a negative influence on the community when the mall gets dowdy. Historically, these modern shopping malls were the city centres, civic centres and social centres, and more than just a shopping district. If lost, it creates a true vacuum in those communities."
First Capital Reality`s website:
http://www.firstcapitalrealty.ca/
http://www.reportonbusiness.com/servlet/st...ry/robNews/home
Only this time it is Morningside Mall in Scarborough, ON. First Capital Reality Inc., a redevelopment specialist, which purchased the mall for $13-million in 2004. There is a new (or "new-again") trend in mall industry. It is called "vintage malls".
QUOTE There will be few mourners when a wrecking ball demolishes the aging Morningside Mall this month, and an emblem of Canadian suburbia is razed to make way for a new outdoor shopping centre.
...
Rather than ride the likes of Stretch-A-Buck to their last dollar, the company sees a new dawn for Morningside – and many more so-called vintage malls. After the mall`s demolition, First Capital will complete a property makeover that its chief executive officer, Dori Segal, believes will not only spruce up this corner of Scarborough, but profit from the fast-rising incomes and home values of a community that runs down to the stunning white bluffs on Lake Ontario; no small reason his new mall will include a Shoppers Drug Mart and that ubiquitous symbol of urban renewal, a Starbucks.
...
Nothing is more revealing than the statistic that not a single enclosed mall is opening in the United States this year. ... Twenty years ago, 60 to 70 enclosed malls opened south of the border every year.
...
According to Mr. Lambert, one of Canada`s most progressive redevelopment projects is the Don Mills Centre, located northeast of downtown Toronto.
...
At Morningside, the signs of renewal are beginning to appear, in the form of landscaping, interlocking brick and new lighting. While a shopping mall doesn`t make a community, it can certainly help with its improvement, said David Sloane, associate professor of urban planning and development and history at the University of Southern California.
"I`ve never seen anyone quantify this, but it clearly has a negative influence on the community when the mall gets dowdy. Historically, these modern shopping malls were the city centres, civic centres and social centres, and more than just a shopping district. If lost, it creates a true vacuum in those communities."
First Capital Reality`s website:
http://www.firstcapitalrealty.ca/
- Joined
- Aug 29, 2007
- Messages
- 597
Statistics Canada:Study: The new underground economy of resources (Oct 11, 2007)
http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/071011/d071011.pdf
QUOTE The characterization of Canada`s resource sector as "hewers of wood and drawers of water" is outdated, according to a new article that challenges several myths about the nation`s resource base.
It shows that since 2002, there has been a large shift in the resource sector away from trees and water. Metals and energy products found underground now drive the growth of resources. Oil output has shifted from conventional oil and gas to the oilsands. Precious metals are more dependent on diamonds, as gold mines are depleted. Grain producers are moving from wheat to canola in response to changing consumer tastes.
As a result, it is more accurate—if less catchy—to say that Canadians are "conveyers of crude and moilers of metals."
Highlights of this article:
Canadian Economic Observer:
http://www.statcan.ca/english/freepub/11-0...-XIB2007010.pdf
Globe and Mail:
No more water and trees; economy is all about oil and minerals now (Oct 11, 2007)
http://www.reportonbusiness.com/servlet/st...ry/robNews/home#
QUOTE The shift reflects what many have dubbed a “super cycle,” the longest and largest upswing on record for commodity prices, he says. This began in 2003 in the energy sector, where prices doubled before levelling off in 2005. Then metals developed even more momentum, with prices there tripling, and then, last year, agriculture caught fire, with a doubling in grain boosting farm prices by half.
http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/071011/d071011.pdf
QUOTE The characterization of Canada`s resource sector as "hewers of wood and drawers of water" is outdated, according to a new article that challenges several myths about the nation`s resource base.
It shows that since 2002, there has been a large shift in the resource sector away from trees and water. Metals and energy products found underground now drive the growth of resources. Oil output has shifted from conventional oil and gas to the oilsands. Precious metals are more dependent on diamonds, as gold mines are depleted. Grain producers are moving from wheat to canola in response to changing consumer tastes.
As a result, it is more accurate—if less catchy—to say that Canadians are "conveyers of crude and moilers of metals."
Highlights of this article:
- Commodity boom began in energy sector
- Price increase for metals "stronger for longer" than even energyFarming, fishing and forestryResource boom reflected in higher output and jobs
Canadian Economic Observer:
http://www.statcan.ca/english/freepub/11-0...-XIB2007010.pdf
Globe and Mail:
No more water and trees; economy is all about oil and minerals now (Oct 11, 2007)
http://www.reportonbusiness.com/servlet/st...ry/robNews/home#
QUOTE The shift reflects what many have dubbed a “super cycle,” the longest and largest upswing on record for commodity prices, he says. This began in 2003 in the energy sector, where prices doubled before levelling off in 2005. Then metals developed even more momentum, with prices there tripling, and then, last year, agriculture caught fire, with a doubling in grain boosting farm prices by half.
- Joined
- Aug 29, 2007
- Messages
- 597
Statistics Canada:New Housing Price Index (Oct 11, 2007)
http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/071011/d071011c.htm
QUOTE Contractors` selling prices increased 6.5% in August compared with August 2006, a drop from the 7.7% gain observed in July. Prices have gradually decelerated over the past 12 months.
Pay more attention to the table in the end of article because it provides more accurate data per major CMA. This trend will be repeated by resale houses on same markets in few months.
http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/071011/d071011c.htm
QUOTE Contractors` selling prices increased 6.5% in August compared with August 2006, a drop from the 7.7% gain observed in July. Prices have gradually decelerated over the past 12 months.
Pay more attention to the table in the end of article because it provides more accurate data per major CMA. This trend will be repeated by resale houses on same markets in few months.