November 2012 U.S. Economic Fundamentals
- Thread starter Ally
- Start date
- Joined
- Mar 24, 2009
- Messages
- 16,743
Is the U.S. housing market still a disaster?
Many experts argue that the U.S. housing market has turned the corner. Some ` like Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel ` have argued that it's one of the few bright spots that will drive economic growth.
But is the housing recovery all that certain? The Fed's decision to purchase $40 billion of agency MBS a month certainly suggests that it isn't as confident as housing bulls would have us believe.
Read the full article here.
Many experts argue that the U.S. housing market has turned the corner. Some ` like Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel ` have argued that it's one of the few bright spots that will drive economic growth.
But is the housing recovery all that certain? The Fed's decision to purchase $40 billion of agency MBS a month certainly suggests that it isn't as confident as housing bulls would have us believe.
Read the full article here.
- Joined
- Mar 24, 2009
- Messages
- 16,743
U.S jobs data signals labour market healing slowly
WASHINGTON ` U.S. companies added jobs in October at the fastest pace in eight months, a sign of modest healing in the labor market just days before a presidential election that could hinge on the economy.
Other data on Thursday showed a drop in new claims for jobless benefits last week and a sharp improvement in consumer confidence in October, while there were mixed signals regarding the health of the factory sector.
Read the full article here.
WASHINGTON ` U.S. companies added jobs in October at the fastest pace in eight months, a sign of modest healing in the labor market just days before a presidential election that could hinge on the economy.
Other data on Thursday showed a drop in new claims for jobless benefits last week and a sharp improvement in consumer confidence in October, while there were mixed signals regarding the health of the factory sector.
Read the full article here.
- Joined
- Mar 24, 2009
- Messages
- 16,743
Warren Buffet just made a huge bet on the U.S. housing market
Perhaps the most bullish indicator for U.S. housing is Warren Buffett.
The legendary investor has been buying up real-estate brokerages around the country as he bets on a housing turnaround. Now, he is partnering with Brookfield Asset Management, a Canadian real-estate investor, to more than double the size of his brokerage business.
Read the full article here.
Perhaps the most bullish indicator for U.S. housing is Warren Buffett.
The legendary investor has been buying up real-estate brokerages around the country as he bets on a housing turnaround. Now, he is partnering with Brookfield Asset Management, a Canadian real-estate investor, to more than double the size of his brokerage business.
Read the full article here.
- Joined
- Mar 24, 2009
- Messages
- 16,743
New ULI report 'Housing in America: The Baby Boomers turn 65'
DENVER ` (October 17, 2012) ` Aging but active baby boomers, as well as the generations before them, are creating new opportunities and challenges for the U.S. housing industry, in terms of meeting the diverse lifestyle needs of people in various phases of their senior years, according to a new publication from the Urban Land Institute (ULI).
Housing in America ` The Baby Boomers Turn 65 explores the housing market changes that will occur as the leading edge of the baby boom generation turns 65; and, as the Silent Generation (aged 67 to 85) and the Greatest Generation (aged 85 and older) make housing choices for their elderly years. The report, written by ULI Senior Resident Fellow for Housing Fellow John K. McIlwain, was released today ULI`s fall meeting in Denver.
Read the full article here.
DENVER ` (October 17, 2012) ` Aging but active baby boomers, as well as the generations before them, are creating new opportunities and challenges for the U.S. housing industry, in terms of meeting the diverse lifestyle needs of people in various phases of their senior years, according to a new publication from the Urban Land Institute (ULI).
Housing in America ` The Baby Boomers Turn 65 explores the housing market changes that will occur as the leading edge of the baby boom generation turns 65; and, as the Silent Generation (aged 67 to 85) and the Greatest Generation (aged 85 and older) make housing choices for their elderly years. The report, written by ULI Senior Resident Fellow for Housing Fellow John K. McIlwain, was released today ULI`s fall meeting in Denver.
Read the full article here.
- Joined
- Mar 24, 2009
- Messages
- 16,743
U.S. election slows Canadian markets
Stock markets failed to find lift from data that suggested the American economic recovery is on track as nervousness about the outcome of the U.S. election trumped a better-than-expected jobs report.
The S&P/TSX composite index fell 119.35 points to 12,380.41, while other data showed Canadian job growth slowed more than anticipated. The TSX Venture Exchange slipped 11.26 points to 1,310.03.
Read the full article here.
Stock markets failed to find lift from data that suggested the American economic recovery is on track as nervousness about the outcome of the U.S. election trumped a better-than-expected jobs report.
The S&P/TSX composite index fell 119.35 points to 12,380.41, while other data showed Canadian job growth slowed more than anticipated. The TSX Venture Exchange slipped 11.26 points to 1,310.03.
Read the full article here.
- Joined
- Mar 24, 2009
- Messages
- 16,743
Paradise in reach as prices inch up
Paradise ` or at least parts of it ` is on sale.
Although not as high profile as places such as Las Vegas or Phoenix, real estate prices in parts of Hawaii have been pummelled almost as badly as the mainland U.S.
While that's bad news for American sellers, that's good news for anyone interested in buying ` such as frostbitten Calgarians.
Read the full article here.
Paradise ` or at least parts of it ` is on sale.
Although not as high profile as places such as Las Vegas or Phoenix, real estate prices in parts of Hawaii have been pummelled almost as badly as the mainland U.S.
While that's bad news for American sellers, that's good news for anyone interested in buying ` such as frostbitten Calgarians.
Read the full article here.
- Joined
- Mar 24, 2009
- Messages
- 16,743
5 Canadian issues facing the next U.S. president
Amid all the feisty back-and-forth between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney during this U.S. election, there was barely a mention of Canada.
While the Republican challenger has made a repeated reference to the Keystone XL pipeline project in his campaign speeches, the only other time Canada registered in the presidential debates was a passing mention of the country's 15 per cent corporate tax rate, something Romney and his vice-presidential running mate, Paul Ryan, praised.
Read the full article here.
Amid all the feisty back-and-forth between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney during this U.S. election, there was barely a mention of Canada.
While the Republican challenger has made a repeated reference to the Keystone XL pipeline project in his campaign speeches, the only other time Canada registered in the presidential debates was a passing mention of the country's 15 per cent corporate tax rate, something Romney and his vice-presidential running mate, Paul Ryan, praised.
Read the full article here.
- Joined
- Mar 24, 2009
- Messages
- 16,743
Buying U.S. real estate: Lifestyle or investment?
A lot of Canadians` current interest in US real estate markets has strong ties to the snowbird community, that group of retired and semi-retired Canadians who routinely migrate south to escape the cold winter temperatures of their home country.
Over the last couple of years, these seasonal US residents have noticed the dramatic proliferation of Foreclosure and For Sale signs, and a growing number are asking if they should be treating their routine US holiday homes as investment opportunities. The answer is a resounding maybe! With US residential real estate prices at deep discounts, can these people reasonably expect to buy a US property, use it personally for part of the year, and then rent it out the rest of the time? If this is what you`re thinking of doing, we recommend extreme caution.
Read the full article here.
A lot of Canadians` current interest in US real estate markets has strong ties to the snowbird community, that group of retired and semi-retired Canadians who routinely migrate south to escape the cold winter temperatures of their home country.
Over the last couple of years, these seasonal US residents have noticed the dramatic proliferation of Foreclosure and For Sale signs, and a growing number are asking if they should be treating their routine US holiday homes as investment opportunities. The answer is a resounding maybe! With US residential real estate prices at deep discounts, can these people reasonably expect to buy a US property, use it personally for part of the year, and then rent it out the rest of the time? If this is what you`re thinking of doing, we recommend extreme caution.
Read the full article here.
- Joined
- Mar 24, 2009
- Messages
- 16,743
Who to blame for poor economic performance
By the standards of US history, the current episode is poor. But on the international comparisons, the obvious answer is - a lot better than Europe.
Looking at total economic output, or GDP, the US has recovered all the ground lost as a result of the recession. The most recent data, for the third quarter of this year, show US GDP 2.2% above its pre-recession peak.
By contrast, Japan and much of Europe are still floundering at pre-recession levels of output. It's true of the eurozone as a whole. Within that, three of the large economies, France, Italy and Spain, have still not closed that gap, and outside the eurozone, neither has Britain. Germany has, however, recovered the lost ground.
Read the full article here.
By the standards of US history, the current episode is poor. But on the international comparisons, the obvious answer is - a lot better than Europe.
Looking at total economic output, or GDP, the US has recovered all the ground lost as a result of the recession. The most recent data, for the third quarter of this year, show US GDP 2.2% above its pre-recession peak.
By contrast, Japan and much of Europe are still floundering at pre-recession levels of output. It's true of the eurozone as a whole. Within that, three of the large economies, France, Italy and Spain, have still not closed that gap, and outside the eurozone, neither has Britain. Germany has, however, recovered the lost ground.
Read the full article here.
- Joined
- Mar 24, 2009
- Messages
- 16,743
United States 'fiscal cliff' biggest risk for Canada, G20: Flaherty
MEXICO CITY ` Slowly but intensely, the focus of the world`s financial leaders has shifted from Europe to the United States, where a fiscal crisis threatens to push the country back into recession ` taking the rest of us with it.
With a divisive and still-too-close-to-call U.S. election only days away, Group of 20 finance ministers and central bankers who gathered Sunday in Mexico City are urging political action to avoid the looming `fiscal cliff` of government spending cuts and tax hikes set to take effect next year in the United States.
Read the full article here.
MEXICO CITY ` Slowly but intensely, the focus of the world`s financial leaders has shifted from Europe to the United States, where a fiscal crisis threatens to push the country back into recession ` taking the rest of us with it.
With a divisive and still-too-close-to-call U.S. election only days away, Group of 20 finance ministers and central bankers who gathered Sunday in Mexico City are urging political action to avoid the looming `fiscal cliff` of government spending cuts and tax hikes set to take effect next year in the United States.
Read the full article here.
- Joined
- Mar 24, 2009
- Messages
- 16,743
U.S. home prices jump 5% in September, most since July 2006
WASHINGTON - A measure of U.S. home prices jumped 5 per cent in September compared with a year ago, the largest year-over-year increase since July 2006. The gain reported by CoreLogic offered more evidence of a sustainable housing recovery.
The real estate data provider also said Tuesday that prices declined 0.3 per cent in September from August, the first drop after six straight increases. The monthly figures are not seasonally adjusted. CoreLogic says the monthly decline reflects the end of the summer home-buying season and not a softening in the housing recovery.
Read the full article here.
WASHINGTON - A measure of U.S. home prices jumped 5 per cent in September compared with a year ago, the largest year-over-year increase since July 2006. The gain reported by CoreLogic offered more evidence of a sustainable housing recovery.
The real estate data provider also said Tuesday that prices declined 0.3 per cent in September from August, the first drop after six straight increases. The monthly figures are not seasonally adjusted. CoreLogic says the monthly decline reflects the end of the summer home-buying season and not a softening in the housing recovery.
Read the full article here.
- Joined
- Mar 24, 2009
- Messages
- 16,743
Uncertain economic outlook for the United States leaves Canada vulnerable
OTTAWA, Nov. 6, 2012 /CNW/ ` Today`s U.S. election matters to Ontario almost as much as it does to Americans themselves. Ontario`s dependence on the U.S. market has left it vulnerable to a slow economic recovery and fiscal uncertainty in the United States, no matter the results of the Presidential and Congressional elections.
Ontario`s trade has been too dependent on large firms, on intra-firm trade and on manufacturing ` especially the auto industry ` The Conference Board of Canada argues in a new briefing. As a result, Ontario was hit particularly hard by the 2008-09 U.S. financial crisis and recession.
Although the Ontario economy has rebounded since 2010, its growth is tepid and it continues to face pressures for fundamental restructuring. The Canadian dollar is expected to remain at or near parity with the U.S. dollar. And while the U.S. economy is starting to show signs of life, it still has serious structural problems, notably its labour market and fiscal deficits.
Read the full article here.
OTTAWA, Nov. 6, 2012 /CNW/ ` Today`s U.S. election matters to Ontario almost as much as it does to Americans themselves. Ontario`s dependence on the U.S. market has left it vulnerable to a slow economic recovery and fiscal uncertainty in the United States, no matter the results of the Presidential and Congressional elections.
Ontario`s trade has been too dependent on large firms, on intra-firm trade and on manufacturing ` especially the auto industry ` The Conference Board of Canada argues in a new briefing. As a result, Ontario was hit particularly hard by the 2008-09 U.S. financial crisis and recession.
Although the Ontario economy has rebounded since 2010, its growth is tepid and it continues to face pressures for fundamental restructuring. The Canadian dollar is expected to remain at or near parity with the U.S. dollar. And while the U.S. economy is starting to show signs of life, it still has serious structural problems, notably its labour market and fiscal deficits.
Read the full article here.
- Joined
- Mar 24, 2009
- Messages
- 16,743
Let's not make a deal
To say the obvious: Democrats won an amazing victory. Not only did they hold the White House despite a still-troubled economy, in a year when their Senate majority was supposed to be doomed, they actually added seats.
Nor was that all: They scored major gains in the states. Most notably, California ` long a poster child for the political dysfunction that comes when nothing can get done without a legislative supermajority ` not only voted for much-needed tax increases, but elected, you guessed it, a Democratic supermajority.
But one goal eluded the victors. Even though preliminary estimates suggest that Democrats received somewhat more votes than Republicans in Congressional elections, the G.O.P. retains solid control of the House thanks to extreme gerrymandering by courts and Republican-controlled state governments. And Representative John Boehner, the speaker of the House, wasted no time in declaring that his party remains as intransigent as ever, utterly opposed to any rise in tax rates even as it whines about the size of the deficit.
Read the full article here.
To say the obvious: Democrats won an amazing victory. Not only did they hold the White House despite a still-troubled economy, in a year when their Senate majority was supposed to be doomed, they actually added seats.
Nor was that all: They scored major gains in the states. Most notably, California ` long a poster child for the political dysfunction that comes when nothing can get done without a legislative supermajority ` not only voted for much-needed tax increases, but elected, you guessed it, a Democratic supermajority.
But one goal eluded the victors. Even though preliminary estimates suggest that Democrats received somewhat more votes than Republicans in Congressional elections, the G.O.P. retains solid control of the House thanks to extreme gerrymandering by courts and Republican-controlled state governments. And Representative John Boehner, the speaker of the House, wasted no time in declaring that his party remains as intransigent as ever, utterly opposed to any rise in tax rates even as it whines about the size of the deficit.
Read the full article here.
- Joined
- Mar 24, 2009
- Messages
- 16,743
Ron Paul: "Pure democracy is dangerous"...when it's purchased
From an outright libertarian, the headline seems contrary; but Ron Paul's affirmation that "pure democracy is dangerous" critically confirms what Romney accidentally admitted: that enabling the majority to dictate the minority is a problem when the majority are receiving a [government] check. Bloomberg TV's Betty Liu looks a little shocked when the thoughtful Paul confirms bluntly that the reelection of Obama is driven simply by 'the people' being on the 'receiving end' of government benefits and that the US is "so far gone; we're over the cliff already." From Boehner and the lack of credibility in Washington to GOP's 'acceptance' of higher taxes and why he quit Congress, Ron Paul succinctly reminds many of the true state of the union in which we live...
Read the full article here.
From an outright libertarian, the headline seems contrary; but Ron Paul's affirmation that "pure democracy is dangerous" critically confirms what Romney accidentally admitted: that enabling the majority to dictate the minority is a problem when the majority are receiving a [government] check. Bloomberg TV's Betty Liu looks a little shocked when the thoughtful Paul confirms bluntly that the reelection of Obama is driven simply by 'the people' being on the 'receiving end' of government benefits and that the US is "so far gone; we're over the cliff already." From Boehner and the lack of credibility in Washington to GOP's 'acceptance' of higher taxes and why he quit Congress, Ron Paul succinctly reminds many of the true state of the union in which we live...
Read the full article here.
- Joined
- Mar 24, 2009
- Messages
- 16,743
U.S. beats out EU
This is a tale of two continents and currencies.
Greece exploded in violence because many of its citizens object to paying the past-due bills for the `party` they call a country.
Meanwhile, the systemically violent United States has handled the end to its `party` ` nearly three million families thrown out of homes they couldn`t afford ` without a single rubber bullet or squadron of riot police.
Read the full article here.
This is a tale of two continents and currencies.
Greece exploded in violence because many of its citizens object to paying the past-due bills for the `party` they call a country.
Meanwhile, the systemically violent United States has handled the end to its `party` ` nearly three million families thrown out of homes they couldn`t afford ` without a single rubber bullet or squadron of riot police.
Read the full article here.
- Joined
- Mar 24, 2009
- Messages
- 16,743
The homebuilder confidence jump is a foreshadowing a huge boost to GDP
The big economic datapoint of the day? Homebuilder Sentiment jumped to its highest level since 2006, hitting a reading of 46.
This is potentially a big deal.
On Twitter, @pawelmorski reprises this chart from DB's Torsten Slok, comparing NAHB homebuilder sentiment with Residential Construction's contribution to GDP (with a 12-month lag).
Read the full article here.
The big economic datapoint of the day? Homebuilder Sentiment jumped to its highest level since 2006, hitting a reading of 46.
This is potentially a big deal.
On Twitter, @pawelmorski reprises this chart from DB's Torsten Slok, comparing NAHB homebuilder sentiment with Residential Construction's contribution to GDP (with a 12-month lag).
Read the full article here.
- Joined
- Mar 24, 2009
- Messages
- 16,743
Housing starts in U.S. increase to 4-year high
New-home construction unexpectedly climbed to a four-year high in October, more evidence of a revival in the industry that`s helping propel the U.S. economy.
Nov. 20 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. housing starts in October rose 3.6 percent to a 894,000 annual rate, the fastest since July 2008 and exceeding all estimates in a Bloomberg survey, Commerce Department figures showed today. Building permits, a proxy for future construction, eased after surging the previous month. Sara Eisen reports on Bloomberg Television's "In the Loop." (Source: Bloomberg)
Houses under construction stand at the Ryland Homes Vista Heights development in Rancho Cucamonga, California. Photographer: Patrick T. Fallon/Bloomberg
Housing starts rose 3.6 percent to a 894,000 annual rate, the fastest since July 2008 and exceeding all estimates in a Bloomberg survey, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington. The median forecast of 82 economists called for an 840,000 pace. Permits for the construction of single-family homes also advanced to the highest in four years.
Read the full article here.
New-home construction unexpectedly climbed to a four-year high in October, more evidence of a revival in the industry that`s helping propel the U.S. economy.
Nov. 20 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. housing starts in October rose 3.6 percent to a 894,000 annual rate, the fastest since July 2008 and exceeding all estimates in a Bloomberg survey, Commerce Department figures showed today. Building permits, a proxy for future construction, eased after surging the previous month. Sara Eisen reports on Bloomberg Television's "In the Loop." (Source: Bloomberg)
Houses under construction stand at the Ryland Homes Vista Heights development in Rancho Cucamonga, California. Photographer: Patrick T. Fallon/Bloomberg
Housing starts rose 3.6 percent to a 894,000 annual rate, the fastest since July 2008 and exceeding all estimates in a Bloomberg survey, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington. The median forecast of 82 economists called for an 840,000 pace. Permits for the construction of single-family homes also advanced to the highest in four years.
Read the full article here.
- Joined
- Mar 24, 2009
- Messages
- 16,743
Serious mortgage delinquencies and in-foreclosure by state
Last week the MBA released the results of their Q3 National Delinquency Survey. One of the key points was the difference in the number of mortgages in the foreclosure process between judicial and non-judicial foreclosure states.
The first graph below (repeat) is from the MBA and shows the percent of loans in the foreclosure process by state.
The second graph shows all stages of delinquency (and in-foreclosure) by states, sorted by the percent seriously delinquent (90+ days plus in-foreclosure).
Read the full article here.
Last week the MBA released the results of their Q3 National Delinquency Survey. One of the key points was the difference in the number of mortgages in the foreclosure process between judicial and non-judicial foreclosure states.
The first graph below (repeat) is from the MBA and shows the percent of loans in the foreclosure process by state.
The second graph shows all stages of delinquency (and in-foreclosure) by states, sorted by the percent seriously delinquent (90+ days plus in-foreclosure).
Read the full article here.
- Joined
- Mar 24, 2009
- Messages
- 16,743
State unemployment rates decreased in 37 states in October
Regional and state unemployment rates were little changed in October. Thirty-seven states and the District of Columbia recorded unemployment rate decreases, seven states posted rate increases, and six states had no change, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.
Nevada continued to record the highest unemployment rate among the states, 11.5 percent in October. Rhode Island and California posted the next highest rates, 10.4 and 10.1 percent, respectively. North Dakota again registered the lowest jobless rate, 3.1 percent.
Read the full article here.
Regional and state unemployment rates were little changed in October. Thirty-seven states and the District of Columbia recorded unemployment rate decreases, seven states posted rate increases, and six states had no change, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.
Nevada continued to record the highest unemployment rate among the states, 11.5 percent in October. Rhode Island and California posted the next highest rates, 10.4 and 10.1 percent, respectively. North Dakota again registered the lowest jobless rate, 3.1 percent.
Read the full article here.