May 2012 U.S. Economic Fundamentals
- Thread starter Ally
- Start date
- Joined
- Mar 24, 2009
- Messages
- 16,743
U.S. jobs growth seen rebounding in April
WASHINGTON, May 1 (Reuters) - Hiring by U.S. employers likely rebounded in April, which could ease worries the economy has stumbled into a soft patch.
Businesses outside the farm sector are expected to have added 170,000 jobs last month, according to a Reuters survey, after rising a meager 120,000 in March. The unemployment rate is seen holding at a three-year low of 8.2 percent.
'It will allay any fears regarding a lapse in the economy,' said Millan Mulraine, an economist at TD Securities in New York.
Read the full article here.
WASHINGTON, May 1 (Reuters) - Hiring by U.S. employers likely rebounded in April, which could ease worries the economy has stumbled into a soft patch.
Businesses outside the farm sector are expected to have added 170,000 jobs last month, according to a Reuters survey, after rising a meager 120,000 in March. The unemployment rate is seen holding at a three-year low of 8.2 percent.
'It will allay any fears regarding a lapse in the economy,' said Millan Mulraine, an economist at TD Securities in New York.
Read the full article here.
- Joined
- Mar 24, 2009
- Messages
- 16,743
Steady job gains to sustain U.S. recovery
WASHINGTON - Hiring through the rest of 2012 will lag the brisk pace set early this year. But it will be strong enough to push the unemployment rate below 8 percent by Election Day.
That's the view that emerges from an Associated Press survey of 32 leading economists who foresee a gradually brighter jobs picture. Despite higher gas prices, Europe's debt crisis and a weak housing market, they think the economy has entered a "virtuous cycle" in which hiring boosts consumer spending, which fuels more hiring and spending.
The survey results come before a report Friday on hiring during April. The April report is eagerly awaited because employers added surprisingly few jobs in March. That result contributed to fears that the economy might struggle to sustain its recovery.
Read the full article here.
WASHINGTON - Hiring through the rest of 2012 will lag the brisk pace set early this year. But it will be strong enough to push the unemployment rate below 8 percent by Election Day.
That's the view that emerges from an Associated Press survey of 32 leading economists who foresee a gradually brighter jobs picture. Despite higher gas prices, Europe's debt crisis and a weak housing market, they think the economy has entered a "virtuous cycle" in which hiring boosts consumer spending, which fuels more hiring and spending.
The survey results come before a report Friday on hiring during April. The April report is eagerly awaited because employers added surprisingly few jobs in March. That result contributed to fears that the economy might struggle to sustain its recovery.
Read the full article here.
- Joined
- Mar 24, 2009
- Messages
- 16,743
Why the U.S. jobless rate may be a 'head fake'
U.S. economic indicators don`t add up.
The unemployment rate has plunged to 8.2 per cent from 9.8 per cent over the last couple of years. That`s a big drop. Yet the economy is only growing at a moderate rate. Gross domestic product hasn`t expanded at an annual rate faster than 3 per cent in seven quarters through the one that just ended in March.
Read the full article here.
U.S. economic indicators don`t add up.
The unemployment rate has plunged to 8.2 per cent from 9.8 per cent over the last couple of years. That`s a big drop. Yet the economy is only growing at a moderate rate. Gross domestic product hasn`t expanded at an annual rate faster than 3 per cent in seven quarters through the one that just ended in March.
Read the full article here.
- Joined
- Mar 24, 2009
- Messages
- 16,743
- Joined
- Mar 24, 2009
- Messages
- 16,743
U.S. home ownership declines to 15 year low
The U.S. homeownership rate fell to the lowest level in 15 years in the first quarter as borrowers lost homes to foreclosure and tighter inventory and credit kept buyers off the market.
The rate dropped to 65.4% from 66% in the fourth quarter and fell a full percentage point from a year earlier, the U.S. Census Bureau said in a report Monday. That is the lowest level since the first quarter of 1997, and down from a record 69.2% in June 2004.
Read the full article here.
The U.S. homeownership rate fell to the lowest level in 15 years in the first quarter as borrowers lost homes to foreclosure and tighter inventory and credit kept buyers off the market.
The rate dropped to 65.4% from 66% in the fourth quarter and fell a full percentage point from a year earlier, the U.S. Census Bureau said in a report Monday. That is the lowest level since the first quarter of 1997, and down from a record 69.2% in June 2004.
Read the full article here.
- Joined
- Mar 24, 2009
- Messages
- 16,743
Putting our slow jobs recovery in perspective
Disappointing, but not shocking. The government`s report Friday that the economy created fewer jobs than expected in April`115,000`showed an unwelcome deceleration of America`s job-creating machine. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had a median forecast of 160,000 jobs created. In the big picture, though, the nearly 3-year-old expansion is proceeding at the same pace as the previous two. Slow recovery, in other words, is the New Normal.
Read the full article here.
Disappointing, but not shocking. The government`s report Friday that the economy created fewer jobs than expected in April`115,000`showed an unwelcome deceleration of America`s job-creating machine. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had a median forecast of 160,000 jobs created. In the big picture, though, the nearly 3-year-old expansion is proceeding at the same pace as the previous two. Slow recovery, in other words, is the New Normal.
Read the full article here.
- Joined
- Mar 24, 2009
- Messages
- 16,743
The scariest job chart ever
As always, the infamous chart from Calculated Risk.
It compares the pace of this jobs recovery vs. every other one since WWII by looking at the trajectory of jobs lost and gained since the recession began.
See the graph here.
As always, the infamous chart from Calculated Risk.
It compares the pace of this jobs recovery vs. every other one since WWII by looking at the trajectory of jobs lost and gained since the recession began.
See the graph here.
- Joined
- Mar 24, 2009
- Messages
- 16,743
12 facts about the U.S. housing bust
What if the conventional wisdom about the mortgage crisis is all wrong?
That`s the implication of a new paper from economists at the Federal Reserve Banks of Atlanta and Boston that`s bound to spark debate because, if their premises are correct, it sharply undercuts the justification for much of the new regulation that`s been erected over the past two years.
Three economists, Christopher Foote, Kristopher Gerardi, and Paul Willen, present two narratives of the financial crisis in trying to answer why so many people made so many dumb decisions.
Read the full article here.
What if the conventional wisdom about the mortgage crisis is all wrong?
That`s the implication of a new paper from economists at the Federal Reserve Banks of Atlanta and Boston that`s bound to spark debate because, if their premises are correct, it sharply undercuts the justification for much of the new regulation that`s been erected over the past two years.
Three economists, Christopher Foote, Kristopher Gerardi, and Paul Willen, present two narratives of the financial crisis in trying to answer why so many people made so many dumb decisions.
Read the full article here.
- Joined
- Mar 24, 2009
- Messages
- 16,743
The Beveridge curve
The classic eponymous Beveridge Curve `is a graphical representation of the relationship between the unemployment rate and the job vacancy rate. It typically has vacancies on the vertical axis and unemployment on the horizontal. The curve slopes downwards as a higher rate of unemployment normally occurs with a lower rate of vacancies. If it moves outwards over time, then a given level of vacancies would be associated with higher and higher levels of unemployment, which would imply decreasing labor market efficiency. Inefficient labor markets are due to mismatches between available jobs, the unemployed and an immobile labor force.` (Wikipedia definition)
Read the full article here.
The classic eponymous Beveridge Curve `is a graphical representation of the relationship between the unemployment rate and the job vacancy rate. It typically has vacancies on the vertical axis and unemployment on the horizontal. The curve slopes downwards as a higher rate of unemployment normally occurs with a lower rate of vacancies. If it moves outwards over time, then a given level of vacancies would be associated with higher and higher levels of unemployment, which would imply decreasing labor market efficiency. Inefficient labor markets are due to mismatches between available jobs, the unemployed and an immobile labor force.` (Wikipedia definition)
Read the full article here.
- Joined
- Mar 24, 2009
- Messages
- 16,743
Quick! Guess how many jobs were created per month during the Bush administration...
Specifically, Romney suggests that we should be creating 500,000 jobs a month--a job creation rate that, as Krugman observes, is rare to say the least.
(For context, excluding the first year of the Obama Administration, during which the country was still in the depths of the Great Recession, 131,000 jobs per month have been created. Including that rough first year, 35,000 jobs per month have been lost during the Obama Administration. But it doesn't seem fair to blame Obama for the collapsing economy he inherited.)
Read the full article here.
Specifically, Romney suggests that we should be creating 500,000 jobs a month--a job creation rate that, as Krugman observes, is rare to say the least.
(For context, excluding the first year of the Obama Administration, during which the country was still in the depths of the Great Recession, 131,000 jobs per month have been created. Including that rough first year, 35,000 jobs per month have been lost during the Obama Administration. But it doesn't seem fair to blame Obama for the collapsing economy he inherited.)
Read the full article here.
- Joined
- Mar 24, 2009
- Messages
- 16,743
Job fizzle hides gains
In a scenario we've seen before, an encouraging spurt of U.S. economic expansion has given way to what some see as a disappointing fizzle, marked by a sharp drop in the pace of job growth.
With yesterday's news that employment south of the border grew by only 115,000 in April, far below the anticipated 160,000, stock markets in the U.S. and Canada fell as investors feared that the U.S. is bogging down in another period of substandard growth.
Read the full article here.
In a scenario we've seen before, an encouraging spurt of U.S. economic expansion has given way to what some see as a disappointing fizzle, marked by a sharp drop in the pace of job growth.
With yesterday's news that employment south of the border grew by only 115,000 in April, far below the anticipated 160,000, stock markets in the U.S. and Canada fell as investors feared that the U.S. is bogging down in another period of substandard growth.
Read the full article here.
- Joined
- Mar 24, 2009
- Messages
- 16,743
Despite weaker growth in the first quarter, economy is expected to keep expanding
WASHINGTON - Don't panic yet. The government reported Friday that the economy got off to a tepid start this year, but that doesn't foreshadow a repeat of the near-standstill that happened in 2011.
"The economy is firmly on a growth trajectory," said Sung Won Sohn, an economics professor at California State University's Smith School of Business. "The first-quarter slowdown will be temporary."
Still, the January-March report was discouraging.
Economists had expected gross domestic product ` the broadest gauge of economic output ` to expand at a 2.5 per cent annual rate for the first three months of the year. Instead, the Commerce Department said it was 2.2 per cent, mainly because of government budget-cutting and a slowdown in business investment.
Read the full article here.
WASHINGTON - Don't panic yet. The government reported Friday that the economy got off to a tepid start this year, but that doesn't foreshadow a repeat of the near-standstill that happened in 2011.
"The economy is firmly on a growth trajectory," said Sung Won Sohn, an economics professor at California State University's Smith School of Business. "The first-quarter slowdown will be temporary."
Still, the January-March report was discouraging.
Economists had expected gross domestic product ` the broadest gauge of economic output ` to expand at a 2.5 per cent annual rate for the first three months of the year. Instead, the Commerce Department said it was 2.2 per cent, mainly because of government budget-cutting and a slowdown in business investment.
Read the full article here.
- Joined
- Mar 24, 2009
- Messages
- 16,743
U.S. hiring slows, raising worries on recovery
WASHINGTON ` U.S. employers cut back on hiring in April and more people gave up the hunt for work, dimming hopes the economy was turning a corner just as President Barack Obama prepared to launch his re-election campaign.
Employers added 115,000 workers last month after increasing payrolls 154,000 in March, the Labour Department said on Friday. Economists had expected to see the creation of 170,000 jobs.
Read the full article here.
WASHINGTON ` U.S. employers cut back on hiring in April and more people gave up the hunt for work, dimming hopes the economy was turning a corner just as President Barack Obama prepared to launch his re-election campaign.
Employers added 115,000 workers last month after increasing payrolls 154,000 in March, the Labour Department said on Friday. Economists had expected to see the creation of 170,000 jobs.
Read the full article here.
- Joined
- Mar 24, 2009
- Messages
- 16,743
The 15 best housing markets for the next 5 years
Home prices are expected to bottom later this year after falling nearly 35 percent from their 2006 peak, according to the latest data from Fiserv Case-Shiller.
They also note that housing is more affordable now than it has been at any time in the last four decades.
Read the full article here.
Home prices are expected to bottom later this year after falling nearly 35 percent from their 2006 peak, according to the latest data from Fiserv Case-Shiller.
They also note that housing is more affordable now than it has been at any time in the last four decades.
Read the full article here.
- Joined
- Mar 24, 2009
- Messages
- 16,743
Foreclosure activity hits lowest level since Q4 2007
Foreclosure filings hit their lowest level in more than four years in the first quarter, according to a report from foreclosure data aggregator RealtyTrac.
Default notices, scheduled auctions, and bank repossessions were filed on 572,928 properties in the first quarter, or one in every 230 U.S. housing units -- the lowest number of filings since fourth-quarter 2007, when 527,740 properties received filings.
Read the full article here.
Foreclosure filings hit their lowest level in more than four years in the first quarter, according to a report from foreclosure data aggregator RealtyTrac.
Default notices, scheduled auctions, and bank repossessions were filed on 572,928 properties in the first quarter, or one in every 230 U.S. housing units -- the lowest number of filings since fourth-quarter 2007, when 527,740 properties received filings.
Read the full article here.
- Joined
- Mar 24, 2009
- Messages
- 16,743
U.S. consumer sentiment hit four-year high
U.S. consumer sentiment rose to its highest level in more than four years in early May as Americans remained upbeat about the job market, a survey released on Friday showed.
Separate data earlier in the day showed U.S. producer prices unexpectedly fell in April as energy costs dropped by the most in six months, a sign of easing inflation pressures that could give the Federal Reserve more room to help the economy should growth weaken.
Read the full article here.
U.S. consumer sentiment rose to its highest level in more than four years in early May as Americans remained upbeat about the job market, a survey released on Friday showed.
Separate data earlier in the day showed U.S. producer prices unexpectedly fell in April as energy costs dropped by the most in six months, a sign of easing inflation pressures that could give the Federal Reserve more room to help the economy should growth weaken.
Read the full article here.
- Joined
- Mar 24, 2009
- Messages
- 16,743
30-year mortage rates sink to new historic lows
Freddie Mac has reported that the national average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage dipped to 3.83 percent this week, reaching a new low after posting a 3.84 percent mark last week.
Along with the 30-year rate dropping to a new low, the 15-year fixed-rate mortgage followed suit. After recording a 3.07 mark last week, the rate fell to 3.05 percent.
Read the full article here.
Freddie Mac has reported that the national average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage dipped to 3.83 percent this week, reaching a new low after posting a 3.84 percent mark last week.
Along with the 30-year rate dropping to a new low, the 15-year fixed-rate mortgage followed suit. After recording a 3.07 mark last week, the rate fell to 3.05 percent.
Read the full article here.
- Joined
- Mar 24, 2009
- Messages
- 16,743
U.S. hiring slowed in April
WASHINGTON - U.S. job growth slumped in April for a second straight month. It suggested an economy that is growing steadily but still sluggishly, which could further tighten a close presidential race.
A drop in the unemployment rate wasn't necessarily a healthy sign for the job market. The rate fell from 8.2 per cent in March to 8.1 per cent in April. But that was mainly because more people gave up looking for work.
People who aren't looking for jobs aren't counted as unemployed.
Read the full article here.
WASHINGTON - U.S. job growth slumped in April for a second straight month. It suggested an economy that is growing steadily but still sluggishly, which could further tighten a close presidential race.
A drop in the unemployment rate wasn't necessarily a healthy sign for the job market. The rate fell from 8.2 per cent in March to 8.1 per cent in April. But that was mainly because more people gave up looking for work.
People who aren't looking for jobs aren't counted as unemployed.
Read the full article here.
- Joined
- Mar 24, 2009
- Messages
- 16,743
U.S. April economic index falls for the first time in 7 months
A gauge of future U.S. economic activity fell in April for the first time in seven months, according to an industry survey on Thursday that indicated a struggling economic recovery.
The Conference Board`s Leading Economic Index decreased 0.1% to 95.5, the first drop in the monthly index since September 2011. The index rose 0.3% in March.
Read the full article here.
A gauge of future U.S. economic activity fell in April for the first time in seven months, according to an industry survey on Thursday that indicated a struggling economic recovery.
The Conference Board`s Leading Economic Index decreased 0.1% to 95.5, the first drop in the monthly index since September 2011. The index rose 0.3% in March.
Read the full article here.