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May 2010

Ally

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News articles for May 2010.
 

Ally

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Canadian consumers confident, but cautious

OTTAWA — Canadian consumers may be more confident than their European or U.S. counterparts, but many say they are more careful now about how they spend, according to a report released Monday by The Boston Consulting Group.

The report, titled The New World Order of Consumption, found that only 18 per cent of Canadians do not think the economy will improve in the next six months, a vast improvement from 52 per cent who thought the same a year ago. Meanwhile, 37 per cent of U.S. residents and 39 per cent of European Union residents do not think the economy will improve in the next six months.

"Canadian consumers believe the worst of the recession is over and are more optimistic than they were a year ago. In fact, they`re significantly more confident about the economic future and their jobs than consumers in other Western economies," said Cliff Grevler, a partner in the Toronto office, and leader of the Canadian Consumer Practice.

Nonetheless, Grevler pointed out, Canadians clearly are not forgetting the lessons of the recession, as 74 per cent of Canadians say they are now spending more time shopping around for better prices. As well, 55 per cent of Canadians still plan to cut spending non-essential items.

"While belt-tightening is lightening up a bit, Canadians have structurally changed the way they spend and consume. It`s much more focused on price, and there`s much more thought given before expenditures on non-essential items," he said.

Read the full article here.
 

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Consumer confidence rises to two-year high: Survey

OTTAWA — Canadians` confidence in the economy continued to grow in April, rising to levels not seen in two years, according to the latest monthly release from TNS Canadian Facts.

The research agency`s main index climbed 1.1 points in April to a reading of 100.5, following on gains in every month of the year to date. It has not been at that point since April 2008.

While the results showed overall growth, consumers were still concerned about making future purchases, the report indicated.

The survey`s present situation index, which measures economic and employment sentiment, has now gained more than 10 points since January. Meanwhile the expectations index, which measures consumer feelings about the economy, household income and employment over the next six months, dipped slightly in April but remained at a healthy reading of 109.7. A measure of 100 was set when the index was established in May 2005.

The buy index, however, which measures whether people believe it is a good time to make a major purchase, slipped in April after falling in March.

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Making a case for or against recovery

Is the recovery real and sustainable, or is it a giant head fake, built on a mountain of public money that`s about to disappear?

That`s the $64,000 question, of course, and as usual, there are plenty of smart observers on either side of the argument.

The economists at Scotiabank argue that a conventional V-shaped recovery looks more likely by the day. To bolster their claim, they highlight the following points:

- - The U.S. economy is expected to recover all output lost during the credit crisis by the second quarter, and reach a record high for GDP by the third quarter.

- - The impact of inventory rebuilding on economic growth -- as opposed to sustained demand -- is not out of line with previous periods of economic recovery, despite suggestions to the contrary.

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Canadians shake off recession

Canadians are shaking off the economic downturn of the last two years and venturing out on their own with a strong entrepreneurial spirit, according to a survey released Tuesday.

One in three Canadians surveyed said they were interested in starting their own business in the next two years, and 35 per cent of that group said they would likely follow through with their plans.

The survey --by Intuit Inc., a provider of business, financial and tax management solutions for small businesses --indicated that the recession may have emboldened, rather than dampened the spirits of future entrepreneurs.

Almost one-quarter of those surveyed said they would forge ahead with their plans despite the tough economy.

"Much of Canada`s economic might comes from its small business backbone and, despite a market characterized by uncertainty, it`s encouraging to see such gritty, entrepreneurial determination among the Canadian population," said Gene Lewis, country manager for Intuit Canada.

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New strategies to consider in mortgage game

How much protection do you really need?

The latest prophylactic being sold to home owners worried about getting caught with nasty high interest rates is something called the RateCapper from Royal Bank. It`s a product that offers you a variable rate that floats with prime, but guarantees that your mortgage rate will not go beyond a certain point during the five-year term.

The price -- there`s always a price -- is that you give up the discount that you can negotiate off the prime rate. National Bank of Canada has had a capped-rate mortgage product in the marketplace since March 2000. But trying to sell rate protection during a period of record-low interest rates would be as difficult as selling abstinence during the free-love `60s.

" This product was not as popular [in the past couple of years] as it will be now," says Jonathan Haziza, mortgage solutions product officer with National Bank.

With the National Bank`s Capped Rate product, your rate can`t go above the five-year posted rate -- now 6.25% -- at the time you sign your mortgage, for the term of your mortgage. But, instead of getting a variable-rate product as low as 1.75%, you are borrowing at 2.9% today.

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Bank of Canada alleges huge mortgage fraud

The Bank of Montreal is suing hundreds of people in Alberta, including lawyers, mortgage brokers and four of its own employees, in what is one of the largest alleged cases of mortgage fraud in Canadian history.

Legal documents obtained exclusively by CBC News allege the bank was the target of a sophisticated fraud operated by 14 inter-connected groups. The documents allege the scheme generated at least $140 million, about $70 million of which was for phoney mortgages.

The bank has estimated it may lose as much as $30 million.

Toronto forensic accountant Al Rosen said he has never seen anything like it

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What housing bubble? Canada`s housing bubblet ending with a faint pop

Canada`s little housing bubblet is coming to an end. Here comes (maybe) the crashlet.

This description doesn`t make for a screaming headline, but it`s about the best an honest analyst can do with Canada`s stubbornly healthy, stable housing market.

In spite of all the angst expended in recent months on media accounts of a growing Canadian housing bubble, reality continues to move along a different track.

Prices, while high in some markets, aren`t anywhere near bubble territory, say several economists, and now they`re about to stall, bringing things back into balance.

With mortgage interest rates moving up sooner than expected and the outlook tilting toward still more increases, there could even be enough of a cooling to bring price cuts in some markets.

Read the full article here.
 

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Appetite in Canadian real estate investments remains strong despite lull: survey

CALGARY - Canadian real estate investors are cautiously optimistic that a fast recovery is on the horizon even though the market has yet to reach its lowest point.

But according to Colliers International`s 2010 Global Investor Sentiment Survey, 65 per cent of Canadian institutional and private real estate investors said they are considering further acquisitions over the next 12 months, mirroring the global trend (64 per cent).

The global survey of more than 240 major real estate investors (including 26 large Canadian institutional property investors) with a total investment portfolio of over $300 billion, also found a strong appetite for domestic investments. The vast majority (85 per cent) of Canadian respondents who indicated acquisition plans intend to focus on the domestic market, especially in locations such as Toronto (27.8 per cent), Vancouver and Montreal (16.7 per cent each), Edmonton and Calgary (14.8 per cent and 11.1 per cent respectively).

The lack of appetite for foreign investments is also reflected globally with eight out of ten respondents having no offshore portfolio or intentions to invest overseas.

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Aaron: Land survey most important document in real estate transaction

The sad tale of the Glenlake Ave. driveway featured in the Star late last month has focussed public attention on the difference between the Land Registry and the Land Titles system of property ownership. It has underscored yet again the fact that the single most important document in any real estate transaction is the land survey — formally known as surveyor`s real property report.

As reported in the Star
, the Perkovic family owns 104 Glenlake Ave. in Toronto`s west end, and the Roslins recently purchased the house next door at 106. In between the two properties is a wide driveway, leading to the back of both properties and to the Perkovics` double garage on the west and the Roslins` parking area to the east.

For 33 years, the Perkovics had been using it to access their garage. Unfortunately for them, they only own a small strip beside their house — not wide enough for a car to navigate. Recently, the Roslins blocked access by the Perkovics to their driveway.

Had the properties been registered in the old Land Registry system, the Perkovics would probably have acquired a right to the continued use of the driveway. In law, this is known as an easement by prescription, or a right of way resulting from continuous use for more than 20 years.

But since both houses were originally registered under the newer Land Titles system, the "squatter`s rights" rules do not apply and the Perkovics have no right of vehicular access to their double garage.

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Hot housing market to cool, TD bank says

OTTAWA—The TD Bank says home sales will be significantly lower in the second half of this year and next — and prices are dropping too.

The new outlook is in accord with previous expectations, with the exception that TD now believes the slowdown from the current hot housing market to be sharper.

The bank says with home construction stronger than expected, the added supply will soon begin affecting prices.

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Canada, EU at loggerheads over bank tax

A Canada-E.U. summit in Brussels on Wednesday exposed what appears to be an unbridgeable gulf between the two sides over the international campaign for a new global tax on banks.

In a sneak preview of a debate that will come to a head at next month`s meeting of the Group of 20 in Toronto, European leaders argue a new tax would ensure money is set aside in the event of a future financial meltdown and would discourage risky banking.

The European Union wants the upcoming G20 meeting to produce an accord that would raise billions – possibly hundreds of billions – from banks through new worldwide levies.

Prime Minister Stephen Harper counters that it makes no sense for Canada and other G20 nations that did not have to bail out their financial institutions with taxpayer dollars to turn around and impose a punishing tax.

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Canada in league of its own when it comes to risky debt

When big investors saw Greece falling into deep financial trouble this year, some of them turned to a familiar ally to profit from the nation`s fiscal crunch: the credit default swap .

The swaps, often called CDS for short, are financial instruments that allow investors to place money on the risk that a company or country won`t be able to pay its debts. Nowadays, they can place such bet against nearly every country, from economic powerhouses like Germany and the U.S. to those of marginal economic significance, such as El Salvador and Guatemala. Right now, prices for Greek swaps are through the roof.

But there`s one country investors can`t, or at least won`t, bet against: Canada.

Canada is almost alone in the world in not having actively traded insurance contracts on its government debt. Despite large deficits, no one, it seems, is willing to bet that Ottawa will try to walk away from its debts.

"It`s quite unusual actually," said Gavan Nolan, a credit analyst in London for Markit Group, a financial data firm that tracks swap prices.

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Alberta MP among hundreds named in BMO mortgage fraud lawsuit

CALGARY — Hundreds of Albertans, including Calgary Northeast MP Devinder Shory, are being sued by the Bank of Montreal in what it alleges is a massive mortgage fraud involving $120 million.

In a sweeping lawsuit involving more than 200 properties across the province, the bank claims it lost $30 million in a series of elaborate frauds orchestrated during the province`s real estate boom.

"This one is horrendous," said Al Rosen, a Toronto-based forensic accountant who has investigated a number of high-profile fraud cases. "There`s just so many people involved in the thing. It`s not a small-time operation."

No criminal charges have been laid in the case, which names numerous city lawyers, including Shory, mortgage brokers and BMO employees as defendants. The RCMP has received a complaint and is weighing the evidence before deciding whether to launch a criminal investigation, said Sgt. Dale Glydon of the RCMP`s commercial crime section in Calgary.

Court documents allege 14 business groups, in some cases assisted by BMO employees, set up the so-called straw buyer frauds.

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Canadians bullish on economy: Survey

The notion of economic recovery is gaining traction across Canada, with a new report showing consumer confidence is up 16 points over this time last year, outpacing 42 of the 55 nations surveyed.

According to Nielsen`s Global Consumer Confidence Index, released Thursday, consumer confidence in Canada has finally returned to 100 — meaning average, or neutral — after plummeting to 84 during the first quarter of 2009. Over that same time, consumer confidence in the U.S. climbed just five points, to 85, while worldwide confidence climbed 15 points, to 92.

"Canada is definitely leading the economic recovery when you think about the global average," says Carman Allison, director of industry insights for The Nielsen Company. "We`re feeling optimistic, and have a lot to be optimistic about."

For starters, the Canadian economy is on track to meet the forecasted 5.8 per cent annualized growth this quarter. And GDP has already recouped nearly two-thirds of its recession losses.

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TD see housing correction in 2011

The Toronto Dominion Bank expects the Canadian housing market to experience a “modest” price correction next year.

Existing home prices nationally should fall by 2.7 per cent in 2011 because of weaker than expected economic conditions, says the bank. This is a reversal of the bank’s earlier forecast that called for a 1.6 per cent gain in housing prices next year.

“A combination of factors suggests a weaker handoff to 2011 than previously expected,” said economist Pascal Gauthier in a report Wednesday. “While we anticipated sales and prices to be strong in the first half and cool in the second half, we now expect this contrast between the two halves will be sharper.”

One crucial reason is that many more listings are appearing on the market than previously anticipated, as well as new supply in the form of strong housing starts, said the bank. More supply means that buyers will have much more product to choose from, putting a chill on pricing. Interest rates are also expected to rise more quickly than expected, putting a crimp in affordability.

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Dupuis: Housing industry generating one million jobs nation-wide

It seems that the stronger the housing market gets, the more "experts" come out of the woodwork with doom and gloom forecasts about housing sales and prices. While everybody`s entitled to their opinion, these dime-a-dozen forecasts wreak havoc on would-be homebuyers` psyches. The fact that the dire predictions rarely materialize to the extent predicted, if at all, never seems to be reported.

Given the gut-wrenching economic circumstances that existed barely one year ago, you would think that a rebounding housing market would be cause for celebration. In my opinion, a healthy housing market can never be a bad thing, particularly when it comes to jobs and related economic spin-off benefits.

Speaking of economic impact, each year the Canadian Home Builders` Association compiles national, provincial and local economic impact studies which translate housing starts and renovation activity into numbers people can relate to, such as jobs, wages and taxes paid.

Hot off the press, the value of residential home building and renovation in the GTA this year is projected to hit $17.3 billion. The number of jobs generated as a result of all that investment works out to a staggering 168,200 person-years of employment. Think about that number for a moment. Those jobs represent real people doing real hands-on work, making their livings by fulfilling our homeownership aspirations.

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Where the jobs are

Click here for a look at April unemployment numbers in different provinces.
 

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April was best month ever for job hunters

Jobs opened up across Canada in April, with the biggest monthly gain since 2002 as employment jumped by 109,000.

The gain continues a strong trend, but with one difference: Since July 2009, most new jobs have been full-time. But in April, nearly 60 per cent of the new jobs were part-time.

"A veritable jobs gusher," enthused Stewart Hall, economist with HSBC Securities (Canada).

But he tempered his view by noting that the jobs are mostly in the service sector.

"In that the goods sector led the economy down the path to recession, it is a little disappointing that the goods sector failed to really participate in the jobs recovery," he noted.

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Canada adds surprising 108,700 jobs in April

OTTAWA -- Canada produced a "shockingly good" jobs gain in April of 108,700, Statistics Canada reported, with all the hires happening in the private sector, and led by the services industry and construction.

The jobless rate in April fell to 8.1%, from 8.2% in the previous month.

There was a double dose of good news when U.S. jobs data showed a 290,000 gain for April, above expectations for a 190,000 increase. Of note is that the U.S. private sector added 231,000 to its payroll, beating the previous month`s private gain of 174,000. Plus, there were revisions to the February and March U.S. data that, as a result, indicated 121,000 more Americans found jobs than previously believed.

However, marring the U.S. picture was that the unemployment rate crept up to 9.9%, from 9.7% last month.

Read the full article http://www.theprovince.com/business/fp/Can...8206/story.htmlhere.
 
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