March 2011 U.S. Economic Fundamentals
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Real Estate Investing: The best and the worst markets
Looking to snap up some investment properties on the cheap? You may want to consider Durham, N.C., Indianapolis and Huntsville, Ala. They are among the best places to invest now, according to a new report that ranks the best and worst markets for conservative residential-real-estate investors. Hard-hit Las Vegas and Orlando, Fla., are among the riskiest.
Local Market Monitor Inc., a Cary, N.C., firm that analyzes real-estate trends for lenders, builders and investors, compiled its first Investor Suitability Report using economic data through July 31 for 315 U.S. markets. The firm is best known for its housing-market forecasts, which use "equilibrium" home prices: what home values should be in relation to incomes, job growth and population. In its new report, it uses similar data to rank communities by their investment prospects, focusing on single-family homes.
Read the full article here.
Looking to snap up some investment properties on the cheap? You may want to consider Durham, N.C., Indianapolis and Huntsville, Ala. They are among the best places to invest now, according to a new report that ranks the best and worst markets for conservative residential-real-estate investors. Hard-hit Las Vegas and Orlando, Fla., are among the riskiest.
Local Market Monitor Inc., a Cary, N.C., firm that analyzes real-estate trends for lenders, builders and investors, compiled its first Investor Suitability Report using economic data through July 31 for 315 U.S. markets. The firm is best known for its housing-market forecasts, which use "equilibrium" home prices: what home values should be in relation to incomes, job growth and population. In its new report, it uses similar data to rank communities by their investment prospects, focusing on single-family homes.
Read the full article here.
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U.S. growth slows as state reins in spending
WASHINGTON ` US economic growth was slower than thought in the final months of 2010, as federal and local governments slashed spending to forestall looming budget crises, the Commerce Department reported Friday.
Growth edged down to 2.8 percent in the last quarter of the year, a slower pace than first thought, putting yet another question mark over the vitality of the recovery.
With the United States locked in a fierce political debate over government costs, local authorities cut spending by nearly 2.5 percent, helping trim the growth rate.
The Commerce Department had initially estimated that gross domestic product increased 3.2 percent in fourth quarter, with governments paring spending by just under one percent.
Read the full article here.
WASHINGTON ` US economic growth was slower than thought in the final months of 2010, as federal and local governments slashed spending to forestall looming budget crises, the Commerce Department reported Friday.
Growth edged down to 2.8 percent in the last quarter of the year, a slower pace than first thought, putting yet another question mark over the vitality of the recovery.
With the United States locked in a fierce political debate over government costs, local authorities cut spending by nearly 2.5 percent, helping trim the growth rate.
The Commerce Department had initially estimated that gross domestic product increased 3.2 percent in fourth quarter, with governments paring spending by just under one percent.
Read the full article here.
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Is U.S. housing over- or under-priced
The recent Housing `bubble` and its ensuing `bust` give rise continually to discussion over whether housing is currently a `buy` or whether housing prices have still further declines ahead. In this paper we examine the `trend` in housing prices over the last four decades, market by market, and ask if current (2010q3) house prices are above or below that trend. We undertake the analysis in real (constant 2010) dollars so our `trend` is on top of economy-wide inflation. We also explain why we think this `trend` approach has true economic meaning. Our results suggest that conclusions depend importantly on whether the recent `bubble` is or is not incorporated into the trend. If one believes that at least some of this bubble was rational market behavior, and deserves to be incorporated, then most US markets have now dropped clearly `below trend`. If the recent bubble is viewed as some kind of true aberration, and is not included in the trend,
ithen more than half of US markets are still above trend.
Read the full report here.
The recent Housing `bubble` and its ensuing `bust` give rise continually to discussion over whether housing is currently a `buy` or whether housing prices have still further declines ahead. In this paper we examine the `trend` in housing prices over the last four decades, market by market, and ask if current (2010q3) house prices are above or below that trend. We undertake the analysis in real (constant 2010) dollars so our `trend` is on top of economy-wide inflation. We also explain why we think this `trend` approach has true economic meaning. Our results suggest that conclusions depend importantly on whether the recent `bubble` is or is not incorporated into the trend. If one believes that at least some of this bubble was rational market behavior, and deserves to be incorporated, then most US markets have now dropped clearly `below trend`. If the recent bubble is viewed as some kind of true aberration, and is not included in the trend,
ithen more than half of US markets are still above trend.
Read the full report here.
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Pending home sales fall in U.S.
Fewer Americans signed contracts to buy homes in January, the latest evidence that the housing market is struggling to rise above depressed levels.
The National Association of Realtors says its index of sales agreements for previously occupied homes fell 2.8 per cent last month to a reading of 88.9, the second straight monthly decline.
Read the full article here.
Fewer Americans signed contracts to buy homes in January, the latest evidence that the housing market is struggling to rise above depressed levels.
The National Association of Realtors says its index of sales agreements for previously occupied homes fell 2.8 per cent last month to a reading of 88.9, the second straight monthly decline.
Read the full article here.
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HIgh oil prices complicate housing recovery
Higher oil prices bring a bunch of negatives to the U.S. outlook. One consequence: They put a double dip in housing back on the table.
January saw a mixed performance in home sales. Purchases of existing homes posted a surprising gain of 2.7% to 5.36 million. Sales of new homes, however, dropped a larger-than-expected 12.6% to just 284,000. Both sectors are at historically low levels, held down by high unemployment, strict mortgage standards and the uncertainty of future trends in home prices.
Even so, housing in 2011 was expected to benefit, if only mildly, from the U.S. recovery gaining traction and from government policy remaining very accommodative. Household formation would increase as job growth picked up this year. Affordability would benefit from the Federal Reserve`s focus on keeping mortgage rates low.
Read the full article here.
Higher oil prices bring a bunch of negatives to the U.S. outlook. One consequence: They put a double dip in housing back on the table.
January saw a mixed performance in home sales. Purchases of existing homes posted a surprising gain of 2.7% to 5.36 million. Sales of new homes, however, dropped a larger-than-expected 12.6% to just 284,000. Both sectors are at historically low levels, held down by high unemployment, strict mortgage standards and the uncertainty of future trends in home prices.
Even so, housing in 2011 was expected to benefit, if only mildly, from the U.S. recovery gaining traction and from government policy remaining very accommodative. Household formation would increase as job growth picked up this year. Affordability would benefit from the Federal Reserve`s focus on keeping mortgage rates low.
Read the full article here.
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U.S. housing market to stay depressed for the next few years
The US housing market is still struggling to recover from the after effects of the housing bubble of 2008. During the period of 2005 and summer of 2006, the flourishing US housing market blocked suddenly and eventually crashed in 2008 and reached its bottom in 2009.
The US government pumped in Money in to the economy, issued tax credits for home owners, and also offered to take over the subprime mortgages under its Federal Housing Administration (FDA) to guarantee mortgages with low down payments to families of modest means. All these measures have helped the economy to recover. However, the housing market is still not getting back on its feet. When President Obama, unveiled the Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP) in March 2009, the hope was to modify 3m-4m mortgages by subsidizing payment reductions through the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP), a bail-out fund. But by the end of last year, only 522,000 loans had been permanently modified. Of the $50 billion originally allocated to the program, just $1 billion had been spent, according to Neil Barofsky, the TARP`s watchdog.
Read the full article here.
The US housing market is still struggling to recover from the after effects of the housing bubble of 2008. During the period of 2005 and summer of 2006, the flourishing US housing market blocked suddenly and eventually crashed in 2008 and reached its bottom in 2009.
The US government pumped in Money in to the economy, issued tax credits for home owners, and also offered to take over the subprime mortgages under its Federal Housing Administration (FDA) to guarantee mortgages with low down payments to families of modest means. All these measures have helped the economy to recover. However, the housing market is still not getting back on its feet. When President Obama, unveiled the Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP) in March 2009, the hope was to modify 3m-4m mortgages by subsidizing payment reductions through the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP), a bail-out fund. But by the end of last year, only 522,000 loans had been permanently modified. Of the $50 billion originally allocated to the program, just $1 billion had been spent, according to Neil Barofsky, the TARP`s watchdog.
Read the full article here.
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U.S. private sector adds more jobs than expected: ADP
NEW YORK ` U.S. private employers added 217,000 jobs in February, beating analysts` expectations, a report by a payrolls processor showed Wednesday.
Economists polled by Reuters had expected a rise of 175,000 in February. The January figure was revised higher to 189,000 from 187,000.
The ADP Employer Services report, jointly developed with Macroeconomic Advisers LLC, comes ahead of the government`s much more comprehensive labor market report on Friday, which includes both public and private sector employment.
Read the full article here.
NEW YORK ` U.S. private employers added 217,000 jobs in February, beating analysts` expectations, a report by a payrolls processor showed Wednesday.
Economists polled by Reuters had expected a rise of 175,000 in February. The January figure was revised higher to 189,000 from 187,000.
The ADP Employer Services report, jointly developed with Macroeconomic Advisers LLC, comes ahead of the government`s much more comprehensive labor market report on Friday, which includes both public and private sector employment.
Read the full article here.
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U.S. jobless claimes near three-year low
New U.S. claims for unemployment benefits fell last week to their lowest level in more than 2-1/2 years, signaling an acceleration in job creation could be under way.
The labor market outlook was also enhanced by another report on Thursday showing steady productivity growth in the fourth quarter, implying that employers might be forced to step-up hiring to meet growing demand.
Read the full article here.
New U.S. claims for unemployment benefits fell last week to their lowest level in more than 2-1/2 years, signaling an acceleration in job creation could be under way.
The labor market outlook was also enhanced by another report on Thursday showing steady productivity growth in the fourth quarter, implying that employers might be forced to step-up hiring to meet growing demand.
Read the full article here.
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A beginner's guide to U.S. property ownership
Most Canadians buying into the depressed housing market across much of the United States have little idea about different ways to own U.S. property, U.S. and Canadian income tax on rental income, Canadian capital gains tax on property that isn't a principal residence, and U.S. estate tax.
Canadians can own U.S. property through sole ownership, ownership with another person (joint tenancy or tenancy in common), ownership through a Canadian corporation, ownership through a Canadian limited partnership, and ownership through a Canadian trust.
In a presentation for Canaccord Wealth Management, Garnet Matsuba, tax counsel with the law firm MacPherson, Leslie & Tyerman, said there are pros and cons to each type of ownership regarding income tax, estate tax, complexity of ownership, control of the property and property liability.
Read the full article here.
Most Canadians buying into the depressed housing market across much of the United States have little idea about different ways to own U.S. property, U.S. and Canadian income tax on rental income, Canadian capital gains tax on property that isn't a principal residence, and U.S. estate tax.
Canadians can own U.S. property through sole ownership, ownership with another person (joint tenancy or tenancy in common), ownership through a Canadian corporation, ownership through a Canadian limited partnership, and ownership through a Canadian trust.
In a presentation for Canaccord Wealth Management, Garnet Matsuba, tax counsel with the law firm MacPherson, Leslie & Tyerman, said there are pros and cons to each type of ownership regarding income tax, estate tax, complexity of ownership, control of the property and property liability.
Read the full article here.
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You call this an economic recovery? 44 million Americans on foodstamps and 10 other reasons the economy is simply not getting better
When Barack Obama, the Federal Reserve and the mainstream media tell us that we are in the middle of an economic recovery, is that supposed to be some kind of sick joke? According to newly released numbers, over 44 million Americanshttp://http://www.fns.usda.gov/pd/29SNAPcurrPP.htm are now on food stamps. That is a new all-time record and that number is 13.1% higher than it was just one year ago. So how many Americans have to go on food stamps before we can all finally agree that the U.S. economy is dying? 50 million? 60 million? All of us? The food stamp program is the modern equivalent of the old bread lines. More than one out of every seven Americans now depends on the federal government for food. Oh, but haven't you heard? The economy is showing dramatic improvement. Corporate profits are up. The stock market is soaring. Happy days are here again.
It just seems inconceivable that anyone can claim that the economy is improving when the number of Americans on food stamps continues to set a brand new record every single month. But the food stamp program is not the only indicator that the economy is still having massive problems. The following are 10 more reasons why the U.S. economy is simply not getting any better....
Read the full article here.
When Barack Obama, the Federal Reserve and the mainstream media tell us that we are in the middle of an economic recovery, is that supposed to be some kind of sick joke? According to newly released numbers, over 44 million Americanshttp://http://www.fns.usda.gov/pd/29SNAPcurrPP.htm are now on food stamps. That is a new all-time record and that number is 13.1% higher than it was just one year ago. So how many Americans have to go on food stamps before we can all finally agree that the U.S. economy is dying? 50 million? 60 million? All of us? The food stamp program is the modern equivalent of the old bread lines. More than one out of every seven Americans now depends on the federal government for food. Oh, but haven't you heard? The economy is showing dramatic improvement. Corporate profits are up. The stock market is soaring. Happy days are here again.
It just seems inconceivable that anyone can claim that the economy is improving when the number of Americans on food stamps continues to set a brand new record every single month. But the food stamp program is not the only indicator that the economy is still having massive problems. The following are 10 more reasons why the U.S. economy is simply not getting any better....
Read the full article here.
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Roubini, economist who predicted crisis, sees double if oil hits US$140
Nouriel Roubini, the economist who predicted the global financial crisis, said an increase in oil prices to US$140 a barrel will cause some advanced economies to slide back into recession.
Underlying how fragile the global economic recovery is, Roubini said the European Central Bank may be making a mistake by raising interest rates `too soon` when debt-ridden countries on the euro region`s periphery struggle to restore the competitiveness of exports.
`If you had the oil price going up to where it was in the summer of 2008, at US$140 a barrel, at that point some of the advanced economies will start to double dip,` he told reporters in Dubai today. `In the U.S., where growth is accelerating fast, a 15 to 20% increase in oil prices, there won`t be double dip but growth reaching a stalled speed again.`
Read the full article here.
Nouriel Roubini, the economist who predicted the global financial crisis, said an increase in oil prices to US$140 a barrel will cause some advanced economies to slide back into recession.
Underlying how fragile the global economic recovery is, Roubini said the European Central Bank may be making a mistake by raising interest rates `too soon` when debt-ridden countries on the euro region`s periphery struggle to restore the competitiveness of exports.
`If you had the oil price going up to where it was in the summer of 2008, at US$140 a barrel, at that point some of the advanced economies will start to double dip,` he told reporters in Dubai today. `In the U.S., where growth is accelerating fast, a 15 to 20% increase in oil prices, there won`t be double dip but growth reaching a stalled speed again.`
Read the full article here.
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Underwater mortgages rise as U.S. home prices fall
The number of Americans who owe more on their mortgages than their homes are worth rose at the end of last year, preventing many people from selling their homes in an already weak housing market.
CoreLogic said Tuesday that about 11.1 million households, or 23.1 per cent of all mortgaged homes, were underwater in the October-December quarter. That's up from 22.5 per cent, or 10.8 million households, in the July-September quarter.
The number of underwater mortgages had fallen in the previous three quarters. But that was mostly because more homes had fallen into foreclosure.
Underwater mortgages typically rise when home prices fall. Home prices in December hit their lowest point since the housing bust in 11 of 20 major U.S. metro areas. In a healthy housing market, about 5 per cent of homeowners are underwater.
Read the full article here.
The number of Americans who owe more on their mortgages than their homes are worth rose at the end of last year, preventing many people from selling their homes in an already weak housing market.
CoreLogic said Tuesday that about 11.1 million households, or 23.1 per cent of all mortgaged homes, were underwater in the October-December quarter. That's up from 22.5 per cent, or 10.8 million households, in the July-September quarter.
The number of underwater mortgages had fallen in the previous three quarters. But that was mostly because more homes had fallen into foreclosure.
Underwater mortgages typically rise when home prices fall. Home prices in December hit their lowest point since the housing bust in 11 of 20 major U.S. metro areas. In a healthy housing market, about 5 per cent of homeowners are underwater.
Read the full article here.
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What foreclosure problem?
IN THIS morning's edition of his "Wonkbook" newsletter, Ezra Klein directed readers to news pieces about the developing proposal for a foreclosure settlement with America's big banks. Mr Klein added:
That strikes me as way off the mark. Austerity? Sure. Monetary tightening? No question. European crisis? Oil prices? Real issues. But housing? No, not really.
That isn't to say that things in housing markets are lovely. Prices may fall a bit more nationally. Inventory remains high nationally, and very high in some markets. Lending standards are still tight and could stay that way for some time. There are 11m households with negative equity in their homes (but NOT, as Mr Klein's memo suggests, 11m likely foreclosures). Conditions aren't pretty.
Read the full article here.
IN THIS morning's edition of his "Wonkbook" newsletter, Ezra Klein directed readers to news pieces about the developing proposal for a foreclosure settlement with America's big banks. Mr Klein added:
That strikes me as way off the mark. Austerity? Sure. Monetary tightening? No question. European crisis? Oil prices? Real issues. But housing? No, not really.
That isn't to say that things in housing markets are lovely. Prices may fall a bit more nationally. Inventory remains high nationally, and very high in some markets. Lending standards are still tight and could stay that way for some time. There are 11m households with negative equity in their homes (but NOT, as Mr Klein's memo suggests, 11m likely foreclosures). Conditions aren't pretty.
Read the full article here.
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'Perfect storm' for buying U.S. real estate: Realtor
Many Canadians dream about escaping the dreary winter months by owning a place in Florida, Arizona or even California. Staggeringly low prices for U.S. real estate, combined with a loonie at parity or higher, is creating an unprecedented opportunity.
`Right now it`s the perfect storm,` says Al Andersen, a Phoenix-based realtor with Russ Lyon`s Sotheby`s International Realty. `It`s the best real estate market in Phoenix in 25 years. We`re bumping along the bottom.`
Applications for home mortgages in the United States jumped to the highest level in three months last week, buoyed by improvements in the job situation.
Read the full article here.
Many Canadians dream about escaping the dreary winter months by owning a place in Florida, Arizona or even California. Staggeringly low prices for U.S. real estate, combined with a loonie at parity or higher, is creating an unprecedented opportunity.
`Right now it`s the perfect storm,` says Al Andersen, a Phoenix-based realtor with Russ Lyon`s Sotheby`s International Realty. `It`s the best real estate market in Phoenix in 25 years. We`re bumping along the bottom.`
Applications for home mortgages in the United States jumped to the highest level in three months last week, buoyed by improvements in the job situation.
Read the full article here.
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Quick foreclosure pact with banks needed to heal market
WASHINGTON - A comprehensive settlement between U.S. authorities and banks over alleged abuses of mortgage servicing needs to be reached quickly to help the housing market heal, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said on Tuesday.
Mr. Geithner said such a settlement would allow the government to focus more directly on repairing the damage to the broader housing market and will help dispel the legal uncertainty plaguing mortgage lenders.
"It is very important that we try to bring this to bed as quickly as we can," Mr. Geithner told the Senate Banking Committee. "I think all parties, not just the servicers, but the state AGs and the federal agencies have a strong stake in doing that."
A group of 50 attorneys general and 12 federal agencies are probing bank mortgage practices that burst into public view last year, including the use of "robo-signers" to sign hundreds of unread foreclosure documents a day.
Read the full article here.
WASHINGTON - A comprehensive settlement between U.S. authorities and banks over alleged abuses of mortgage servicing needs to be reached quickly to help the housing market heal, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said on Tuesday.
Mr. Geithner said such a settlement would allow the government to focus more directly on repairing the damage to the broader housing market and will help dispel the legal uncertainty plaguing mortgage lenders.
"It is very important that we try to bring this to bed as quickly as we can," Mr. Geithner told the Senate Banking Committee. "I think all parties, not just the servicers, but the state AGs and the federal agencies have a strong stake in doing that."
A group of 50 attorneys general and 12 federal agencies are probing bank mortgage practices that burst into public view last year, including the use of "robo-signers" to sign hundreds of unread foreclosure documents a day.
Read the full article here.
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Oilsands fuel U.S. 'bottleneck'
EDMONTON ` While the Middle East turmoil is pushing up oil prices, Alberta heavy-oil producers are facing a `classic bottleneck,` with pipelines running at capacity and storage tanks in Cushing, Okla., almost full.
`This is causing a significant dampening of prices and it will take a couple of years` to sort out, the head of J.P. Morgan global oil research told the World Heavy Oil Congress on Tuesday.
`The upgrader investment (in the U.S.) is in place; it is just a question of getting the oil to market,` Lawrence Eagles said.
This projected improvement assumes pipelines, including TransCanada`s Keystone XL project, will be built, he adds. But Keystone has been delayed as U.S. officials seek more scientific reports on issues such as greenhouse gas emissions and pipeline integrity.
Read the full article here.
EDMONTON ` While the Middle East turmoil is pushing up oil prices, Alberta heavy-oil producers are facing a `classic bottleneck,` with pipelines running at capacity and storage tanks in Cushing, Okla., almost full.
`This is causing a significant dampening of prices and it will take a couple of years` to sort out, the head of J.P. Morgan global oil research told the World Heavy Oil Congress on Tuesday.
`The upgrader investment (in the U.S.) is in place; it is just a question of getting the oil to market,` Lawrence Eagles said.
This projected improvement assumes pipelines, including TransCanada`s Keystone XL project, will be built, he adds. But Keystone has been delayed as U.S. officials seek more scientific reports on issues such as greenhouse gas emissions and pipeline integrity.
Read the full article here.
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U.S. housing starts see biggest drop since 1984
U.S. housing starts posted their biggest decline in 27 years in February while building permits dropped to their lowest level on record, suggesting the beleaguered real estate sector has yet to rebound from its deepest slump in modern history.
Groundbreaking on new construction dropped 22.5 percent last month to an annual rate of 479,000 units, according to U.S. Commerce Department data released on Wednesday. This was just above a record low set in April 2009 and way below the estimates of economists, who had been looking for a smaller drop to 570,000.
Read the full article here.
U.S. housing starts posted their biggest decline in 27 years in February while building permits dropped to their lowest level on record, suggesting the beleaguered real estate sector has yet to rebound from its deepest slump in modern history.
Groundbreaking on new construction dropped 22.5 percent last month to an annual rate of 479,000 units, according to U.S. Commerce Department data released on Wednesday. This was just above a record low set in April 2009 and way below the estimates of economists, who had been looking for a smaller drop to 570,000.
Read the full article here.
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The 13 most miserable states in America
Yesterday we showed you the happiest, healthiest states in America. Unfortunately not all places are quite that cheery.
Earlier this month, Gallup-Healthways released its third annual Well-Being Index based on interviews with 352,840 Americans aged 18 and older during 2010.
The Well-Being Index score is an average of six sub-categories, which individually examine life evaluation, emotional health, work environment, physical health, healthy behaviors, and access to basic necessities. The Index is calculated on a scale of 0 to 100, where a score of 100 would represent ideal well-being.
Read the full article here.
Yesterday we showed you the happiest, healthiest states in America. Unfortunately not all places are quite that cheery.
Earlier this month, Gallup-Healthways released its third annual Well-Being Index based on interviews with 352,840 Americans aged 18 and older during 2010.
The Well-Being Index score is an average of six sub-categories, which individually examine life evaluation, emotional health, work environment, physical health, healthy behaviors, and access to basic necessities. The Index is calculated on a scale of 0 to 100, where a score of 100 would represent ideal well-being.
Read the full article here.
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U.S. unemployment soars to a 17-year high
Unemployment in London increased by 4.3% to 392,000 in the three months to January, official figures show.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed that 16,000 more people were unemployed in the region during the period.
Across the country unemployment has reached a 17-year high of more than 2.5 million and youth joblessness is at record levels, figures have revealed.
The jobless total jumped by 27,000 in the three months to January to 2.53 million, the worst figure since 1994, while the number of 16 to 24-year-olds out of work increased by 30,000 to 974,000, the highest since records began in 1992.
The unemployment rate for young people rose by 0.8% to 20.6%, also a record high. The number of people classed as economically inactive also increased - up by 43,000 to 9.33 million, including 2.3 million looking after a family.
Read the full article here.
Unemployment in London increased by 4.3% to 392,000 in the three months to January, official figures show.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed that 16,000 more people were unemployed in the region during the period.
Across the country unemployment has reached a 17-year high of more than 2.5 million and youth joblessness is at record levels, figures have revealed.
The jobless total jumped by 27,000 in the three months to January to 2.53 million, the worst figure since 1994, while the number of 16 to 24-year-olds out of work increased by 30,000 to 974,000, the highest since records began in 1992.
The unemployment rate for young people rose by 0.8% to 20.6%, also a record high. The number of people classed as economically inactive also increased - up by 43,000 to 9.33 million, including 2.3 million looking after a family.
Read the full article here.