June 2012 U.S. Economic Fundamentals
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Home sales increase may market a 'return of normal homebuying'
In April, homebuying season begins in earnest for most regions, and last month was no exception: Existing-home sales increased 3.4% in April from March, hitting a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.62 million, the National Association of Realtors said. That was 10% higher than in April 2011.
Meanwhile, the median sale price for existing homes increased 3.1% in April from March to $177,400; that was a 10.1% jump from April 2011. Coupled with March's price increase, this marks the first two-month period of back-to-back year-to-year price increases since mid-2010, the NAR says. Earlier this month, the NAR reported that 74 of the 146 largest U.S. metropolitan areas showed a price increase from the first quarter of 2011 to the first quarter of this year.
Read the full article here.
In April, homebuying season begins in earnest for most regions, and last month was no exception: Existing-home sales increased 3.4% in April from March, hitting a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.62 million, the National Association of Realtors said. That was 10% higher than in April 2011.
Meanwhile, the median sale price for existing homes increased 3.1% in April from March to $177,400; that was a 10.1% jump from April 2011. Coupled with March's price increase, this marks the first two-month period of back-to-back year-to-year price increases since mid-2010, the NAR says. Earlier this month, the NAR reported that 74 of the 146 largest U.S. metropolitan areas showed a price increase from the first quarter of 2011 to the first quarter of this year.
Read the full article here.
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American family rentals reach 15-year high
The nation`s homeowner housing vacancy rates declined in the first quarter as supply conditions in the rental sector tighten and the proportion of families in tenancy reached a 15-year high.
Rental vacancies dipped to 8.8% in the quarter, 0.9% lower than a year earlier and 0.6% below the previous quarter, according to the Department of Commerce`s Census Bureau. The homeownership vacancy rate stands at 2.2% in the period, down 0.4% from a year earlier and 0.1% from the fourth quarter of 2011.
Some 34.6% of families rented their home in the first quarter, increasing from 34% at the end of 2011.
Read the full article here.
The nation`s homeowner housing vacancy rates declined in the first quarter as supply conditions in the rental sector tighten and the proportion of families in tenancy reached a 15-year high.
Rental vacancies dipped to 8.8% in the quarter, 0.9% lower than a year earlier and 0.6% below the previous quarter, according to the Department of Commerce`s Census Bureau. The homeownership vacancy rate stands at 2.2% in the period, down 0.4% from a year earlier and 0.1% from the fourth quarter of 2011.
Some 34.6% of families rented their home in the first quarter, increasing from 34% at the end of 2011.
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U.S. job growth snaps back in May
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Jobs growth probably snapped back in May from weather-related distortions that had slowed hiring, suggesting the economy was still expanding moderately despite strong headwinds from Europe.
Employers probably created 150,000 jobs last month, according to a Reuters survey of economists, after generating a paltry 115,000 positions in April - the fewest in six months.
That would bring nonfarm employment growth closer to its 176,000 a month average of the past three months and temper fears that economic activity could be stagnating.
Read the full article here.
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Jobs growth probably snapped back in May from weather-related distortions that had slowed hiring, suggesting the economy was still expanding moderately despite strong headwinds from Europe.
Employers probably created 150,000 jobs last month, according to a Reuters survey of economists, after generating a paltry 115,000 positions in April - the fewest in six months.
That would bring nonfarm employment growth closer to its 176,000 a month average of the past three months and temper fears that economic activity could be stagnating.
Read the full article here.
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U.S. economy adds fewest jobs this year in May
WASHINGTON - The U.S. economy suddenly looks a lot weaker.
Only 69,000 jobs were added in May, the fewest in a year, and the unemployment rate rose from 8.1 per cent to 8.2 per cent.
The dismal jobs data will heighten fears that the economy is sputtering. It also puts President Barack Obama on the defensive five months before his re-election bid.
Read the full article here.
WASHINGTON - The U.S. economy suddenly looks a lot weaker.
Only 69,000 jobs were added in May, the fewest in a year, and the unemployment rate rose from 8.1 per cent to 8.2 per cent.
The dismal jobs data will heighten fears that the economy is sputtering. It also puts President Barack Obama on the defensive five months before his re-election bid.
Read the full article here.
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Dismal U.S. jobs report comes with one ray of light
WASHINGTON ` U.S. employers slammed the brakes on hiring in May and the jobless rate ticked higher, but there was at least one silver lining to the dismal monthly jobs report: more people entered the workforce.
A survey of U.S. employers showed 69,000 jobs were created last month, the weakest in a year, the Labour Department said on Friday. The reading was lower than any forecast in a Reuters poll.
Read the full article here.
WASHINGTON ` U.S. employers slammed the brakes on hiring in May and the jobless rate ticked higher, but there was at least one silver lining to the dismal monthly jobs report: more people entered the workforce.
A survey of U.S. employers showed 69,000 jobs were created last month, the weakest in a year, the Labour Department said on Friday. The reading was lower than any forecast in a Reuters poll.
Read the full article here.
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Home rentals - the new American dream?
GILBERT, Ariz. ` Steve and Jodi Jacobson bought their Phoenix-area "dream home" in 2005. They built flagstone steps to the front door. They tiled the kitchen and bathroom. They entertained often, enjoying their mountain views.
"We put our soul into that house," says Steve Jacobson, 37.
Then, home prices tanked more than 50%. Steve, a software quality assurance engineer, suffered pay cuts. In 2010, foreclosure claimed the home and their $100,000 down payment.
Read the full article here.
GILBERT, Ariz. ` Steve and Jodi Jacobson bought their Phoenix-area "dream home" in 2005. They built flagstone steps to the front door. They tiled the kitchen and bathroom. They entertained often, enjoying their mountain views.
"We put our soul into that house," says Steve Jacobson, 37.
Then, home prices tanked more than 50%. Steve, a software quality assurance engineer, suffered pay cuts. In 2010, foreclosure claimed the home and their $100,000 down payment.
Read the full article here.
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Why the U.S. economy is stuck in the slow lane
The recession officially ended three years ago, but the 'recovery' has been a frustrating mix of good and bad news.
The economy isn't careening into a ditch. It's just stuck firmly in the slow lane.
A disappointing report on the job market Friday dashed hopes that a halting recovery would finally take off and generate hundreds of thousands more jobs every month. And Monday brought a report showing factory orders declining for a second month.
Read the full article here.
The recession officially ended three years ago, but the 'recovery' has been a frustrating mix of good and bad news.
The economy isn't careening into a ditch. It's just stuck firmly in the slow lane.
A disappointing report on the job market Friday dashed hopes that a halting recovery would finally take off and generate hundreds of thousands more jobs every month. And Monday brought a report showing factory orders declining for a second month.
Read the full article here.
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U.S. economic outlook worsens after jobs report
The faltering U.S. job market has prompted economists to take a much dimmer view of the country's growth prospects. That's a shift from just a few weeks ago, when many were upgrading their forecasts.
Friday's surprisingly bleak jobs report for May followed a spate of disappointing data. Manufacturing activity slowed, an index of home sales fell and consumer confidence tumbled. Mounting troubles in Europe and elsewhere have heightened economists' concerns.
"The latest economic data have been decisively disappointing," Michael Feroli, an economist at JPMorgan Chase, wrote in a client note.
Read the full article here.
The faltering U.S. job market has prompted economists to take a much dimmer view of the country's growth prospects. That's a shift from just a few weeks ago, when many were upgrading their forecasts.
Friday's surprisingly bleak jobs report for May followed a spate of disappointing data. Manufacturing activity slowed, an index of home sales fell and consumer confidence tumbled. Mounting troubles in Europe and elsewhere have heightened economists' concerns.
"The latest economic data have been decisively disappointing," Michael Feroli, an economist at JPMorgan Chase, wrote in a client note.
Read the full article here.
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U.S. treasuries could be rated 'junk' in August
NEW YORK ` U.S. Treasury bonds, seen worldwide as the risk-free investment, could be labeled `junk` if the government misses debt payments by Aug. 15, credit agency Fitch Ratings warned on Wednesday.
The ratings would go back up once the government fulfills its debt obligations, but probably not to the current AAA level, Fitch said on Wednesday in a stark statement about the impact of a short-lived default on U.S. credit-worthiness.
The statement follows similar warnings by Moody`s and Standard & Poor`s, but Fitch was the first among the big-three rating agencies to say U.S. Treasury securities could be downgraded, even for a short period of time, to a non-investment grade.
Read the full article here.
NEW YORK ` U.S. Treasury bonds, seen worldwide as the risk-free investment, could be labeled `junk` if the government misses debt payments by Aug. 15, credit agency Fitch Ratings warned on Wednesday.
The ratings would go back up once the government fulfills its debt obligations, but probably not to the current AAA level, Fitch said on Wednesday in a stark statement about the impact of a short-lived default on U.S. credit-worthiness.
The statement follows similar warnings by Moody`s and Standard & Poor`s, but Fitch was the first among the big-three rating agencies to say U.S. Treasury securities could be downgraded, even for a short period of time, to a non-investment grade.
Read the full article here.
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The inevitable U.S. recession; Part 2 starts
This past month of May was the turning point for the global economy.
Just look at these statistics and you can`t help but think the bottom is falling out again`
Manufacturing sank to a three-year low in May for the 17-member European Union.
The economic contraction in Europe is not only hitting the southern countries like Spain, Greece and Portugal, but it is now also infecting the strong countries like France and Germany.
Germany`s manufacturing output reading is indicating an economic contractionhttp://http://www.profitconfidential.com/economic-contraction/, not expansion; the same can be said for France. The reading in May was the worst reading for both Germany and France in three years!
Read the full article here.
This past month of May was the turning point for the global economy.
Just look at these statistics and you can`t help but think the bottom is falling out again`
Manufacturing sank to a three-year low in May for the 17-member European Union.
The economic contraction in Europe is not only hitting the southern countries like Spain, Greece and Portugal, but it is now also infecting the strong countries like France and Germany.
Germany`s manufacturing output reading is indicating an economic contractionhttp://http://www.profitconfidential.com/economic-contraction/, not expansion; the same can be said for France. The reading in May was the worst reading for both Germany and France in three years!
Read the full article here.
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U.S. home resales brought smiles in April
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) has just provided more evidence of a slightly improving U.S. residential real estate market
Existing home sales in April were +3.4% month over month, reaching a level of 4.62 million units seasonally adjusted and annualized.
The year-over-year gain was an even more impressive +10.0% versus last April`s 4.20 million units.
NAR`s grand total figure includes single-family, townhouse, condo and co-op properties.
Furthermore, the sales gain in the latest month was said to be broadly based across regions.
Read the full article here.
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) has just provided more evidence of a slightly improving U.S. residential real estate market
Existing home sales in April were +3.4% month over month, reaching a level of 4.62 million units seasonally adjusted and annualized.
The year-over-year gain was an even more impressive +10.0% versus last April`s 4.20 million units.
NAR`s grand total figure includes single-family, townhouse, condo and co-op properties.
Furthermore, the sales gain in the latest month was said to be broadly based across regions.
Read the full article here.
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U.S. jobless rate dips
The number of people applying for U.S. unemployment benefits fell last week for the first time in five weeks. But the drop suggests only modest job growth after three months of weak hiring.
The Labour Department said Thursday that applications for weekly benefits dropped by 12,000 to a seasonally adjusted 377,000. That's down from an upwardly revised 389,000 the previous week.
The four-week average, a less volatile measure, rose by 1,750 to 377,500, the highest level in a month.
Read the full article here.
The number of people applying for U.S. unemployment benefits fell last week for the first time in five weeks. But the drop suggests only modest job growth after three months of weak hiring.
The Labour Department said Thursday that applications for weekly benefits dropped by 12,000 to a seasonally adjusted 377,000. That's down from an upwardly revised 389,000 the previous week.
The four-week average, a less volatile measure, rose by 1,750 to 377,500, the highest level in a month.
Read the full article here.
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Fiscal cliff: If you aren't worried, this is why you should be
Economists are not known for being alarmists or particularly prone to hyperbole -- remember all of those hemming and hawing, obscure and opaque phrases that former Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan was famous for?
Read the full article here.
Economists are not known for being alarmists or particularly prone to hyperbole -- remember all of those hemming and hawing, obscure and opaque phrases that former Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan was famous for?
Read the full article here.
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Outlook for U.S. economy darkens after disappointing reports on hiring, housing, factories
WASHINGTON - The faltering U.S. job market has prompted economists to take a much dimmer view of the country's growth prospects. That's a shift from just a few weeks ago, when many were upgrading their forecasts.
Friday's surprisingly bleak jobs report for May followed a spate of disappointing data. Manufacturing activity slowed, an index of home sales fell and consumer confidence tumbled. Mounting troubles in Europe and elsewhere have heightened economists' concerns.
"The latest economic data have been decisively disappointing," Michael Feroli, an economist at JPMorgan Chase, wrote in a client note.
JPMorgan Chase sharply reduced its growth forecast for the July-September quarter to a 2 per cent annual rate, down from 3 per cent. It cited the weaker U.S. hiring and a likely drop in U.S. exports related to slower growth overseas.
Read the full article here.
WASHINGTON - The faltering U.S. job market has prompted economists to take a much dimmer view of the country's growth prospects. That's a shift from just a few weeks ago, when many were upgrading their forecasts.
Friday's surprisingly bleak jobs report for May followed a spate of disappointing data. Manufacturing activity slowed, an index of home sales fell and consumer confidence tumbled. Mounting troubles in Europe and elsewhere have heightened economists' concerns.
"The latest economic data have been decisively disappointing," Michael Feroli, an economist at JPMorgan Chase, wrote in a client note.
JPMorgan Chase sharply reduced its growth forecast for the July-September quarter to a 2 per cent annual rate, down from 3 per cent. It cited the weaker U.S. hiring and a likely drop in U.S. exports related to slower growth overseas.
Read the full article here.
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Case for economic optimism
The three-year economic recovery has been halting and emotionally daunting. And that's if you kept a job.
The latest anxiety is driven by a smaller-than-expected May jobs report and the annual eurozone crisis. Greece and Spain matter, but they don't drive our economic fate. We are inundated with conflicting reports on employment, consumer sentiment and economic growth. Then political pundits spin the data. At least there will be some certainty after the November elections.
Meanwhile, I'm sticking with the outlook of admittedly optimistic Jim Paulsen, a heartland economist and chief investment officer of Wells Capital Management. And chats last week with several local small-business owners busy adding clients and employees proved encouraging
Read the full article here.
The three-year economic recovery has been halting and emotionally daunting. And that's if you kept a job.
The latest anxiety is driven by a smaller-than-expected May jobs report and the annual eurozone crisis. Greece and Spain matter, but they don't drive our economic fate. We are inundated with conflicting reports on employment, consumer sentiment and economic growth. Then political pundits spin the data. At least there will be some certainty after the November elections.
Meanwhile, I'm sticking with the outlook of admittedly optimistic Jim Paulsen, a heartland economist and chief investment officer of Wells Capital Management. And chats last week with several local small-business owners busy adding clients and employees proved encouraging
Read the full article here.
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Good news for the U.S. housing market
Home prices and sales are on the rise. DataQuick says the average sale price for the past 30 days was $189,500, up $7,000 from a month earlier. Sales are also up 8.2 percent during this time. In Southern California, for example, DataQuick says the market is continuing its `step-by-tiny-step trek back toward normalcy.`
Shadow inventory is shrinking quickly. The so-called shadow inventory refers to distressed properties that aren`t listed for sale but probably will be`homes on which borrowers are grossly delinquent or already in foreclosure, or that banks have already repossessed. CoreLogic says in April, 1.5 million homes were in the shadows, which equates to a four-month supply, down from a six-month supply a year earlier. A smaller shadow inventory can be positive for prices because it means there are fewer distressed homes poised to come on the market.
Read the full article here.
Home prices and sales are on the rise. DataQuick says the average sale price for the past 30 days was $189,500, up $7,000 from a month earlier. Sales are also up 8.2 percent during this time. In Southern California, for example, DataQuick says the market is continuing its `step-by-tiny-step trek back toward normalcy.`
Shadow inventory is shrinking quickly. The so-called shadow inventory refers to distressed properties that aren`t listed for sale but probably will be`homes on which borrowers are grossly delinquent or already in foreclosure, or that banks have already repossessed. CoreLogic says in April, 1.5 million homes were in the shadows, which equates to a four-month supply, down from a six-month supply a year earlier. A smaller shadow inventory can be positive for prices because it means there are fewer distressed homes poised to come on the market.
Read the full article here.
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It's worse than you think: Halftime between two lost decades
The global economy is in a synchronized swoon. Brazil's economy practically stalled out in the first quarter, all of China's manufacturing figures indicate much lower growth than last year, Britain remains in recession, Spain's banking system needs a rescue and may collapse, and the U.S. -- which had been the last remaining bright spot in the global economy -- suddenly has started sputtering. The number of jobs created in May was not just half as many as expected; the figures for the previous two months were sharply revised lower as well. And for good measure, GDP growth for the first quarter was revised downward too.
Many observers were surprised or disappointed, because they still do not understand the nature of this recession, which is neither exclusively cyclical, nor exclusively structural, but rather a rare collision of crises -- a financial recession, in the middle of a global slow-down, at the edge of a demographic time bomb.
Read the full article here.
The global economy is in a synchronized swoon. Brazil's economy practically stalled out in the first quarter, all of China's manufacturing figures indicate much lower growth than last year, Britain remains in recession, Spain's banking system needs a rescue and may collapse, and the U.S. -- which had been the last remaining bright spot in the global economy -- suddenly has started sputtering. The number of jobs created in May was not just half as many as expected; the figures for the previous two months were sharply revised lower as well. And for good measure, GDP growth for the first quarter was revised downward too.
Many observers were surprised or disappointed, because they still do not understand the nature of this recession, which is neither exclusively cyclical, nor exclusively structural, but rather a rare collision of crises -- a financial recession, in the middle of a global slow-down, at the edge of a demographic time bomb.
Read the full article here.
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Obama housing fix faltered on carrots-not-sticks policy
Three years ago, when President Barack Obama unveiled his plan for solving the U.S. housing crisis, one in five borrowers owed more on mortgages than their homes were worth, banks were repossessing 74,000 homes per month and sale prices had plunged 30 percent from their 2006 peak.
`All of us will pay an even steeper price if we allow this crisis to deepen -- a crisis which is unraveling homeownership, the middle class, and the American Dream itself,` Obama told the audience gathered at a high school in Mesa, Arizona, an area with one of the highest foreclosure rates in the country.
Read the full article here.
Three years ago, when President Barack Obama unveiled his plan for solving the U.S. housing crisis, one in five borrowers owed more on mortgages than their homes were worth, banks were repossessing 74,000 homes per month and sale prices had plunged 30 percent from their 2006 peak.
`All of us will pay an even steeper price if we allow this crisis to deepen -- a crisis which is unraveling homeownership, the middle class, and the American Dream itself,` Obama told the audience gathered at a high school in Mesa, Arizona, an area with one of the highest foreclosure rates in the country.
Read the full article here.
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Recovery risks in the U.S. may stir federal government to action
WASHINGTON - With economic storm clouds gathering abroad and signs the U.S. recovery is flagging, the Federal Reserve may feel compelled on Wednesday to launch a new round of monetary stimulus.
Confronted with rising financial strains in Europe, a year-end fiscal showdown in Washington and a sharp slowdown in hiring by U.S. employers, many economists expect the Fed to extend a program aimed at pushing down longer-term interest rates to shield the still-fragile economy.
Read the full article here.
WASHINGTON - With economic storm clouds gathering abroad and signs the U.S. recovery is flagging, the Federal Reserve may feel compelled on Wednesday to launch a new round of monetary stimulus.
Confronted with rising financial strains in Europe, a year-end fiscal showdown in Washington and a sharp slowdown in hiring by U.S. employers, many economists expect the Fed to extend a program aimed at pushing down longer-term interest rates to shield the still-fragile economy.
Read the full article here.