June 2012 Canadian Economic Fundamentals
- Thread starter Ally
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Canadian cross-border spending allowance increases today
Whether preparing to put their credit cards through their paces or bracing for a brutal assault on their business`s bottom line, Canadians across the country are preparing to usher in a new chapter in their relationship with U.S. retailers.
New rules governing the amount of money Canadians are allowed to spend south of the border take effect today, both firing consumers with enthusiasm and filling businesses with foreboding.
The changes `previously announced in this year`s federal budget ` raise the amount of money Canadians are allowed to spend duty free during most cross-border trips.
Read the full article here.
Whether preparing to put their credit cards through their paces or bracing for a brutal assault on their business`s bottom line, Canadians across the country are preparing to usher in a new chapter in their relationship with U.S. retailers.
New rules governing the amount of money Canadians are allowed to spend south of the border take effect today, both firing consumers with enthusiasm and filling businesses with foreboding.
The changes `previously announced in this year`s federal budget ` raise the amount of money Canadians are allowed to spend duty free during most cross-border trips.
Read the full article here.
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How high-priced oil is changing our lives
Only rich people will be able to afford cars. Everyone else will be taking public transit.
Commuters will move into Toronto leaving the suburbs to revert to their former status as farmland.
The only provinces creating jobs will be those with oil. The poorest regions may resort to job-sharing.
Such is the controversial/bleak/contrarian view in Jeff Rubin`s latest book The End of Growth, published by Random House Canada.
Read the full article here.
Only rich people will be able to afford cars. Everyone else will be taking public transit.
Commuters will move into Toronto leaving the suburbs to revert to their former status as farmland.
The only provinces creating jobs will be those with oil. The poorest regions may resort to job-sharing.
Such is the controversial/bleak/contrarian view in Jeff Rubin`s latest book The End of Growth, published by Random House Canada.
Read the full article here.
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Dismal Bank of Canada data set to cool Bank of Canada's hawkish tone
Disappointing economic data on two fronts Friday will likely cool hawkish language from the Bank of Canada when it makes its interest rate announcement next Tuesday.
While it is widely expected that the Bank will keep its benchmark interest rate at 1%, speculation has grown this year that a rate hike could come as soon as this summer, mainly due to improving job growth and home building in Canada. But clear signs emerged Friday that the global economic slowdown could effect Canada more than expected.
Read the full article here.
Disappointing economic data on two fronts Friday will likely cool hawkish language from the Bank of Canada when it makes its interest rate announcement next Tuesday.
While it is widely expected that the Bank will keep its benchmark interest rate at 1%, speculation has grown this year that a rate hike could come as soon as this summer, mainly due to improving job growth and home building in Canada. But clear signs emerged Friday that the global economic slowdown could effect Canada more than expected.
Read the full article here.
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New immigrants needed in construction
If you are new to Canada and are looking for a job in the construction industry, you will be pleased to know that Canada offers a wealth of opportunities waiting for you.
The Canadian construction sector is currently facing a dry spell and the demand for highly skilled construction workers is high and on the increase.
Construction firms are looking to hire new immigrants to fill their work shortages. Specifically, the industry is "looking for permanent immigrant employees as the workforce retires," says Michael Atkinson, president of the Canadian Construction Association.
Read the full article here.
If you are new to Canada and are looking for a job in the construction industry, you will be pleased to know that Canada offers a wealth of opportunities waiting for you.
The Canadian construction sector is currently facing a dry spell and the demand for highly skilled construction workers is high and on the increase.
Construction firms are looking to hire new immigrants to fill their work shortages. Specifically, the industry is "looking for permanent immigrant employees as the workforce retires," says Michael Atkinson, president of the Canadian Construction Association.
Read the full article here.
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Illogical leaps of logic on the oilsands and economic growth
Federal NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair is clearly a man who chooses to enrage rather than engage. In advance of his visit to Alberta`s oil sands last week, he declared that `their model for development is Nigeria.` That he had never been to either Nigeria or to the oils ands was clearly no impediment to that astonishing pronouncement.
Read the full article here.
Federal NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair is clearly a man who chooses to enrage rather than engage. In advance of his visit to Alberta`s oil sands last week, he declared that `their model for development is Nigeria.` That he had never been to either Nigeria or to the oils ands was clearly no impediment to that astonishing pronouncement.
Read the full article here.
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Canada sees modest growth, rates likely on pause
Canada's economy grew less in the first quarter than the Bank of Canada had expected, and well short of market forecasts in March, suggesting the central bank will be in no rush to follow through on a warning it could raise interest rates.
Gross domestic product expanded 1.9 percent in the quarter on an annualized basis, Statistics Canada said on Friday, in line with market forecasts for the quarter, but below the central bank's most recent projection of 2.5 percent growth.
The growth matched the economy's fourth-quarter performance, which was revised up from 1.8 percent, as well as first-quarter growth in the United States.
Read the full article here.
Canada's economy grew less in the first quarter than the Bank of Canada had expected, and well short of market forecasts in March, suggesting the central bank will be in no rush to follow through on a warning it could raise interest rates.
Gross domestic product expanded 1.9 percent in the quarter on an annualized basis, Statistics Canada said on Friday, in line with market forecasts for the quarter, but below the central bank's most recent projection of 2.5 percent growth.
The growth matched the economy's fourth-quarter performance, which was revised up from 1.8 percent, as well as first-quarter growth in the United States.
Read the full article here.
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Boom in services ignored in 'Dutch disease' debate
Is Canada's economy suffering from some imported malady? Hearing the passionate debates about whether something called the "Dutch Disease" is afflicting the country, one thinks of Rembrandt's famous The Anatomy Les-son of Dr. Nicolaes Tulp, with politicians and experts in other fields instead of doctors carefully bent over to study Canada's economic musculature. Fortunately, Canada's economy is alive and kicking - and not only in the resource sector.
The term Dutch Disease was coined to describe the impact on the Dutch economy of the discovery of gas reserves in the North Sea in the late 1950s and 1960s, and has come to describe more broadly an economy where large capital inflows related to developments in the resource sector lead to a stronger currency which, in turn, makes other export sectors less competitive on world markets.
Read the full article here.
Is Canada's economy suffering from some imported malady? Hearing the passionate debates about whether something called the "Dutch Disease" is afflicting the country, one thinks of Rembrandt's famous The Anatomy Les-son of Dr. Nicolaes Tulp, with politicians and experts in other fields instead of doctors carefully bent over to study Canada's economic musculature. Fortunately, Canada's economy is alive and kicking - and not only in the resource sector.
The term Dutch Disease was coined to describe the impact on the Dutch economy of the discovery of gas reserves in the North Sea in the late 1950s and 1960s, and has come to describe more broadly an economy where large capital inflows related to developments in the resource sector lead to a stronger currency which, in turn, makes other export sectors less competitive on world markets.
Read the full article here.
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Canadian job growth seen slowing in May
OTTAWA (Reuters) - Canada's economy likely generated only a small number of new jobs in May following the biggest two-month employment gain in more than 30 years.
The median forecast in a Reuters survey of economists is for a small job gain of 10,000, with about a quarter predicting a loss of employment. The Canadian unemployment rate is seen holding at 7.3 percent.
The market is unanimous in its belief that May employment figures are unlikely to repeat the sort of outsized job gains seen in March and April, which averaged almost 72,000 a month.
"The data in Canada has been giving everybody heartache in terms of employment numbers," said Royal Bank of Canada Chief Economist Craig Wright, whose shop is calling for 10,000 net new jobs.
Read the full article here.
OTTAWA (Reuters) - Canada's economy likely generated only a small number of new jobs in May following the biggest two-month employment gain in more than 30 years.
The median forecast in a Reuters survey of economists is for a small job gain of 10,000, with about a quarter predicting a loss of employment. The Canadian unemployment rate is seen holding at 7.3 percent.
The market is unanimous in its belief that May employment figures are unlikely to repeat the sort of outsized job gains seen in March and April, which averaged almost 72,000 a month.
"The data in Canada has been giving everybody heartache in terms of employment numbers," said Royal Bank of Canada Chief Economist Craig Wright, whose shop is calling for 10,000 net new jobs.
Read the full article here.
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About those interest rate hikes Carney warned about: Never mind
OTTAWA - Is the next move for Mark Carney to cut interest rates?
The question would have seemed unthinkable a few weeks ago given that the Bank of Canada governor's last pronouncement on the subject was to issue a wink and a nudge about coming hikes.
The signal-sending language ` "some modest withdrawal of the present considerable monetary policy surplus may be appropriate" ` contained in the April interest-setting statement sent markets into speculation hyper-drive that rates could be heading north as early as the summer.
Read the full article here.
OTTAWA - Is the next move for Mark Carney to cut interest rates?
The question would have seemed unthinkable a few weeks ago given that the Bank of Canada governor's last pronouncement on the subject was to issue a wink and a nudge about coming hikes.
The signal-sending language ` "some modest withdrawal of the present considerable monetary policy surplus may be appropriate" ` contained in the April interest-setting statement sent markets into speculation hyper-drive that rates could be heading north as early as the summer.
Read the full article here.
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Resource industries are Canada's golden geese; don't kill them
Some politicians and interest groups in Central Canada have been making the case that that manufacturing base is at risk from the high Canadian dollar, which is being driven upward by the success of resource-extraction industries in the West.
But in my Vancouver Sun column (accessible here), I make the case that it`s this success ` the money we`re making from selling oil and minerals ` that goes a long way to cover the cost of propping up both government, through transfer payments, and industry, through direct subsidies, in less economically vibrant parts of the country. At the same time, our prospering industries are creating new opportunities in widely varied sectors across the country.
Read the full article here.
Some politicians and interest groups in Central Canada have been making the case that that manufacturing base is at risk from the high Canadian dollar, which is being driven upward by the success of resource-extraction industries in the West.
But in my Vancouver Sun column (accessible here), I make the case that it`s this success ` the money we`re making from selling oil and minerals ` that goes a long way to cover the cost of propping up both government, through transfer payments, and industry, through direct subsidies, in less economically vibrant parts of the country. At the same time, our prospering industries are creating new opportunities in widely varied sectors across the country.
Read the full article here.
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Bank of Canada holds interest rate, sees 'deterioration' in financial sector
OTTAWA ` The Bank of Canada acknowledged Tuesday the European debt crisis has caused "a sharp deterioration" in the global financial sector, but indicated it's keeping interest-rate options open.
The central bank left its lending rate at a near-historic low of one per cent ` where it has sat since September 2010 ` and pointed to weaker expectations for global economic growth.
"Some of the risks around the European crisis are materializing and risks remain skewed to the downside. This is leading to a sharp deterioration in global financial conditions," the bank said in its statement accompanying the rate decision.
Read the full article here.
OTTAWA ` The Bank of Canada acknowledged Tuesday the European debt crisis has caused "a sharp deterioration" in the global financial sector, but indicated it's keeping interest-rate options open.
The central bank left its lending rate at a near-historic low of one per cent ` where it has sat since September 2010 ` and pointed to weaker expectations for global economic growth.
"Some of the risks around the European crisis are materializing and risks remain skewed to the downside. This is leading to a sharp deterioration in global financial conditions," the bank said in its statement accompanying the rate decision.
Read the full article here.
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The buzz is growing that world leaders will fire off a globally-coordinated bazooka
As we noted last week, analysts have been tittering over a new potential policy response to risks associated with a global slowdown`most particularly the crisis in Europe.
World leaders are worried, as evidenced by the conference call between G7 finance ministers and central bankers yesterday. And with fears about bank runs in Spain escalating, some analysts expect some kind of coordinated central bank action similar to that which we saw announced last November to lower dollar swap rates between banking systems.
Read the full article here.
As we noted last week, analysts have been tittering over a new potential policy response to risks associated with a global slowdown`most particularly the crisis in Europe.
World leaders are worried, as evidenced by the conference call between G7 finance ministers and central bankers yesterday. And with fears about bank runs in Spain escalating, some analysts expect some kind of coordinated central bank action similar to that which we saw announced last November to lower dollar swap rates between banking systems.
Read the full article here.
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Four reasons to beware low interest rates
Watching interest rates is like being a fan of the Toronto Maple Leafs.
Both appear set to rise every now and then, but in the end you get nothing. The Bank of Canada suggested in April that rates could rise sooner than expected, and on Tuesday it softened its stance. Right now, the idea of global growth propelling interest rates higher seems as unlikely as the Leafs pushing deep into next year`s playoffs.
Read the full article here.
Watching interest rates is like being a fan of the Toronto Maple Leafs.
Both appear set to rise every now and then, but in the end you get nothing. The Bank of Canada suggested in April that rates could rise sooner than expected, and on Tuesday it softened its stance. Right now, the idea of global growth propelling interest rates higher seems as unlikely as the Leafs pushing deep into next year`s playoffs.
Read the full article here.
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Canada's 'reshoring' opportunity
It`s the business buzzword of the moment: `reshoring.`
After spending a couple of decades advising Western clients on how to `offshore` their production facilities to low-cost jurisdictions in Asia, business consultancies say it might be time to bring some of that work home.
Read the full article here.
It`s the business buzzword of the moment: `reshoring.`
After spending a couple of decades advising Western clients on how to `offshore` their production facilities to low-cost jurisdictions in Asia, business consultancies say it might be time to bring some of that work home.
Read the full article here.
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Panic has become all too rational
Suppose that in June 2007 you had been told that the U.K. 10-year bond would be yielding 1.54 per cent, the U.S. Treasury 10-year 1.47 per cent and the German 10-year 1.17 per cent on June 1, 2012. Suppose, too, you had been told that official short rates varied from zero in the United States and Japan to 1 per cent in the euro zone. What would you think?
You would think the world economy was in a depression. You would have been wrong if you had meant something like the 1930s. But you would have been right about the forces at work: the west is in a contained depression; worse, forces for another downswing are building, above all in the euro zone. Meanwhile, policy makers are making huge errors.
The most powerful indicator ` and proximate cause ` of economic weakness is the shift in the private sector financial balance (the difference between income and spending by households and businesses) towards surplus. Retrenchment by indebted and frightened people has caused the weakness of western economies. Even countries that are not directly affected, such as Germany, are indirectly affected by the massive retrenchment in their partners.
Read the full article here.
Suppose that in June 2007 you had been told that the U.K. 10-year bond would be yielding 1.54 per cent, the U.S. Treasury 10-year 1.47 per cent and the German 10-year 1.17 per cent on June 1, 2012. Suppose, too, you had been told that official short rates varied from zero in the United States and Japan to 1 per cent in the euro zone. What would you think?
You would think the world economy was in a depression. You would have been wrong if you had meant something like the 1930s. But you would have been right about the forces at work: the west is in a contained depression; worse, forces for another downswing are building, above all in the euro zone. Meanwhile, policy makers are making huge errors.
The most powerful indicator ` and proximate cause ` of economic weakness is the shift in the private sector financial balance (the difference between income and spending by households and businesses) towards surplus. Retrenchment by indebted and frightened people has caused the weakness of western economies. Even countries that are not directly affected, such as Germany, are indirectly affected by the massive retrenchment in their partners.
Read the full article here.
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Lowering the speed for world economic growth
It seems everywhere you look these days economies are gearing down to much slower speeds. Indeed, some economies are already at a standstill (or even moving in reverse) and it`s likely more will soon follow.
Whether it`s North America and Europe or even China and India, the story is much the same ` the world`s largest economies are running out of gas. Despite the best efforts of central banks and finance ministries, even unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus aren`t enough to keep the global economic recovery from stalling.
In China, the days of heady double-digit growth rates look to be over. The latest GDP projections see growth sinking into the 8 per cent range, a pace that itself may be unsustainable. Even China`s seemingly indefatigable manufacturing sector, which is responsible for more factory output than that of any other country, is beginning to look tired. The last time that happened, Beijing came to the rescue with a 4-trillion yuan stimulus package. But that was during the global recession in 2008. This time around that kind of massive stimulus may help to fill order books, but it would also surely start a bonfire under inflation at the same time.
Read the full article here.
It seems everywhere you look these days economies are gearing down to much slower speeds. Indeed, some economies are already at a standstill (or even moving in reverse) and it`s likely more will soon follow.
Whether it`s North America and Europe or even China and India, the story is much the same ` the world`s largest economies are running out of gas. Despite the best efforts of central banks and finance ministries, even unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus aren`t enough to keep the global economic recovery from stalling.
In China, the days of heady double-digit growth rates look to be over. The latest GDP projections see growth sinking into the 8 per cent range, a pace that itself may be unsustainable. Even China`s seemingly indefatigable manufacturing sector, which is responsible for more factory output than that of any other country, is beginning to look tired. The last time that happened, Beijing came to the rescue with a 4-trillion yuan stimulus package. But that was during the global recession in 2008. This time around that kind of massive stimulus may help to fill order books, but it would also surely start a bonfire under inflation at the same time.
Read the full article here.
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Fort McMurray: Economic centre of Canada?
Fort McMurray, economic centre of Canada? Torontonians and the rest of the country had better get used to the idea. The Canadian economy will increasingly spin around the northern Alberta oil town if an industry forecast that shows Canada`s daily volumes will more than double to 6.2 million barrels a day by 2030, largely from the oil sands, proves right.
Under the forecast, made public Tuesday by the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers, Canada will climb to the No. 3 or No. 4 spot in the world as a major oil producer (from No. 5 currently), trailing only oil heavyweights Russia and Saudi Arabia and likely running neck and neck with the United States, depending on what happens to its tight-oil chase.
Read the full article here.
Fort McMurray, economic centre of Canada? Torontonians and the rest of the country had better get used to the idea. The Canadian economy will increasingly spin around the northern Alberta oil town if an industry forecast that shows Canada`s daily volumes will more than double to 6.2 million barrels a day by 2030, largely from the oil sands, proves right.
Under the forecast, made public Tuesday by the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers, Canada will climb to the No. 3 or No. 4 spot in the world as a major oil producer (from No. 5 currently), trailing only oil heavyweights Russia and Saudi Arabia and likely running neck and neck with the United States, depending on what happens to its tight-oil chase.
Read the full article here.
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Jim Flaherty on Eurozone crisis: We have ability to act in another downturn
Ottawa would move to backstop the Canadian economy if the European crisis triggers a second global financial shock, Finance Minister Jim Flaherty said Monday.
With economic conditions deteriorating in most parts of the world, and especially in Europe, Flaherty told reporters that the major advantage Canada has over many others is room to act.
"If we needed to take steps in response to a shock from outside Canada . . . we are in a position to do so because we have fiscal room to move," he told reporters.
Read the full article here.
Ottawa would move to backstop the Canadian economy if the European crisis triggers a second global financial shock, Finance Minister Jim Flaherty said Monday.
With economic conditions deteriorating in most parts of the world, and especially in Europe, Flaherty told reporters that the major advantage Canada has over many others is room to act.
"If we needed to take steps in response to a shock from outside Canada . . . we are in a position to do so because we have fiscal room to move," he told reporters.
Read the full article here.
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Mulcair's oilsands message risks alienating union base
If his recent tour of the oilsands didn`t convince federal NDP leader Thomas Mulcair about its importance to all of Canada, perhaps this will. The day after Mulcair`s oilsands tour, skilled trades unions ` one of the NDP`s main constituencies ` announced a partnership with the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP) to make Canadians aware that the oilsands is the nation`s largest employer of skilled trade workers.
An ad campaign launched by CAPP and Canada`s building trades unions features members of the United Association of Pipefitters and the United Brotherhood of Carpenters. Unlike Mulcair, they deal in reality.
`Canada`s oilsands industry provides more than 200 million work hours annually for 14 unions with locals from coast to coast,` says Robert Blakely, director of Canadian affairs for the Building and Construction Trades Department, an arm of the building trades unions.
Read the full article here.
If his recent tour of the oilsands didn`t convince federal NDP leader Thomas Mulcair about its importance to all of Canada, perhaps this will. The day after Mulcair`s oilsands tour, skilled trades unions ` one of the NDP`s main constituencies ` announced a partnership with the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP) to make Canadians aware that the oilsands is the nation`s largest employer of skilled trade workers.
An ad campaign launched by CAPP and Canada`s building trades unions features members of the United Association of Pipefitters and the United Brotherhood of Carpenters. Unlike Mulcair, they deal in reality.
`Canada`s oilsands industry provides more than 200 million work hours annually for 14 unions with locals from coast to coast,` says Robert Blakely, director of Canadian affairs for the Building and Construction Trades Department, an arm of the building trades unions.
Read the full article here.