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July 2009

Ally

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Canada articles for July 2009.
 

Ally

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Market Optimism Hinges on Rates

Economic recovery is nigh, says the latest report by the Bank of Canada, and a textbook investing strategy is justified.

Stock markets tend to rise in the early stages of the economic cycle until investors start thinking about tighter monetary policy.

We are currently in the sweet spot of that cycle, and investors should follow the textbook play and reduce cash, increase exposure to more cyclical sectors and work their way down the capitalization ladder on market weakness.

Monetary stimulus is greasing the squeaky wheels of finance, and there are many positive developments in the Canadian economy over the past three months.

Short-term funding for banks is reverting to normal, household credit is growing, commodity prices have recovered, and financial conditions are improving.

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Many don`t believe it`s really over

There are at least 1,592,000 Canadians who don`t believe the recession is over.

Benjamin Tal, senior economist with CIBC World Markets, says consumers -- including the almost 1.6 million unemployed -- are unlikely to be overjoyed by the Bank of Canada`s pronouncement yesterday that the recession is all but over.

"This is a technical economic recovery and something only economists get excited about," Mr. Tal said.

"Does it mean unemployment will go down? Will it be easier to get a job? For the average person, its not over and it won`t be over until it`s easier to get a job."

There have been some signs that consumers are feeling more confident and ready to spend -- one of the top indicators being the moribound housing market that saw record sales activity for June in major markets across the country.

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Job Market to Lag Behind Recovery

The recession in Canada could well be over, but the Bank of Canada says unemployment will continue to get worse and dampen economic recovery. At the same time, economists predict almost 10% of the workforce will be jobless before conditions begin to improve next year.

However, some sectors of the employment market are expected to recover faster than others, providing opportunities for those with the required skills.

As signs of improvement begin to emerge, the central bank has turned more upbeat on the prospects for Canada, predicting economic growth of 1.3% in the current quarter compared with its previous prediction of a 1% contraction. If the Bank of Canada`s prediction proves correct, the recession would be limited to three consecutive quarters.

"The perkier outlook is largely due to a rosier view on consumer spending and housing," Doug Porter, the deputy chief economist at BMO Capital Markets said.

But even as the economy returns to growth and consumer spending picks up, the effects of recession will linger, particularly where jobs are concerned.

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Proceed with `Caution`

The recession in Canada could well be over, but the Bank of Canada says unemployment will continue to get worse and dampen economic recovery. At the same time, economists predict almost 10% of the workforce will be jobless before conditions begin to improve next year.

However, some sectors of the employment market are expected to recover faster than others, providing opportunities for those with the required skills.

As signs of improvement begin to emerge, the central bank has turned more upbeat on the prospects for Canada, predicting economic growth of 1.3% in the current quarter, compared with its previous prediction of a 1% contraction. If the Bank of Canada`s prediction proves correct, the recession would be limited to three consecutive quarters.

"The perkier outlook is largely due to a rosier view on consumer spending and housing," said Douglas Porter, deputy chief economist at BMO Capital Markets.

But even as the economy returns to growth and consumer spending picks up, the effects of recession will linger, particularly where jobs are concerned.

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Economic Armageddon has passed, Franklin Templeton`s Myers says
The following is an edited and rearranged interview conducted with Lisa Myers, lead manager of the Templeton Growth Fund. The main theme of her presentation given at the fund`s annual general meeting in Toronto on Thursday is that it doesn`t really matter whether the stock market rally since March is a "bear market rally" or a genuine new bull market: doesn`t matter, that is, if you`re a true long-term investor.

Lisa Myers:
I think Armageddon is past. We`ve had this global stimulus. Global fiscal and monetary stimulus has been very proactive: we have almost $2 trillion in fiscal stimulus globally so we will recover. The question really is how long does it take? We`ve seen unemployment at 9.5% in the U.S. and rising elsewhere. We need to go through this deleveraging process. Look at how little private sector deleveraging has actually occurred. It`s just tipped over the top and by the way public sector debt has replaced that. So there`s enough reasons to feel like the fundamental economy may not recover as quickly as the market is anticipating and right now the market is putting a lot of pressure on places like China and the Emerging Markets to offset the decline in wealth and consumption in the U.S.

Jonathan Chevreau:
You have about 10% in Emerging Markets in the fund?

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A home is your Castle, not an Investment

In my financial novel, Findependence Day, the central character Theo continually preaches to his young clients that a "paid-for home is the foundation of financial independence." By the time you hit retirement age, do you really want to be paying rent to some landlord, who will be sure to jack up the rent every time his own expenses rise? And with inflation threatening to break out in the next year or two, in the wake of all this government stimulus, you can be sure the the cost of living -- including renting -- will inevitably rise.

In my review of Kerry Taylor`s 397 Ways to Save Money
http://http://network.nationalpost....rchive/2009/07/06/397-ways-to-save-money.aspx, I acknowledged that someone still single and in their early 20s might want to rent, or start to build wealth beginning their working life while still living in the parental home. But even Taylor eventually bought a house. While it`s true that homeowners have to pay property taxes, these are rarely as high as rent. Mind you, condo owners may well find that the combination of property taxes and maintenance fees comes dangerously close to rent.

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Buying Inducements must be Disclosed

An Alberta court has ruled that the contents of a lawyer`s file in a real estate transaction may be disclosed to the police when no legal advice was provided to the client, and the circumstances give rise to a presumption that a crime was committed.

Back in April 2007, Christopher and Roya Gour began the process of buying their first home in Edmonton. They contacted a local realtor, Sanjay Sharma, who showed them a house listed at $405,900. He did not reveal that he was the seller as well as the agent.

When the Gours expressed concern that they would not be able to afford the renovations needed on the property, Sharma informed them that the seller would give them a "renovation credit`` of $40,000 on the purchase.

On May 1, 2007, the Gours agreed to buy the house for $405,000 and signed the paperwork.

ResMor Trust Company agreed to provide financing for $364,500 without knowing about the $40,000 renovation credit. As a result, it unknowingly financed the entire purchase price.

Sharma referred the Gours to David Westra, a local lawyer who would represent seller, buyer and new mortgage lender in the transaction. The deal closed June 30, 2007, and the Gours moved in.

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Recession`s Bright Side? Happy new Home buyers.

Johnny Tarabay feared he would never be able to afford a home of his own.

But, after years of watching home prices rise out of reach, the 28-year-old Scarborough bachelor recently put an offer on a house in Richmond Hill, thanks to what some are calling the silver lining in the worst recession in decades: historically low interest rates.

Tarabay is one of many first-time buyers being lured into the market. The trend is backed up by a report released yesterday by the Royal Bank, which shows houses in Canada have become much more affordable in the first three months of the year, one of the biggest quarterly improvements on record.

"This has opened the door more widely to new buyers and set the stage for a resale market rally this spring," said RBC senior economist Robert Hogue.

"While it is still too early to wave the all-clear sign ? economic uncertainty has yet to dissipate in the region ? it appears the Toronto housing market is averting the painful crash scenario," he said.

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The Recession is over. Cue the painful Recovery.

The recession is over, but not the pain.

Canada`s central bank predicted Thursday that the economy would expand this quarter, suggesting the economic contraction lasted for about nine months, considerably shorter than the previous two recessions in the early 1990s and the early 1980s.

The Bank of Canada`s reassessment of the state of the economy is perhaps the clearest signal yet that the worst of the recession is over.

Buoyed by the prospect of better days ahead, investors rushed to buy Canadian stocks, adding new life to an near five-month rally that economists said has played a big role in reversing Canada`s fortunes.

The Standard & Poor`s/TSX Composite Index rose 243.33 points to 10,675.68, the highest in six weeks. Canada`s dollar jumped about 1 per cent to 92.04 U.S. cents, the strongest in almost two months.

Yet Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney stopped short of celebration, saying it will take more than a year to replace the wealth destroyed by the financial crisis.

A graphic example of the hole out of which Canada`s economy has to climb is the "output gap," which measures the difference between current economic activity and the level of production policy makers reckon the economy can sustain without causing rapid inflation.

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How Canada escaped U.S.-Style Housing Woes

I recently returned from a BILD-organized housing study tour of Denver and while the participating builders and designers took plenty of inspiration and ideas from the many great communities we visited, what stuck in my mind the most was how many times I heard the "F-word" while in the United States.

No, I don`t mean the four-letter word. The F-word I kept hearing was "foreclosure."

On our first morning in Denver, the cover story on the front page of USA Today was "Mortgage crisis robbing seniors of golden years" and it spoke of the growing number of seniors facing or experiencing foreclosure on their properties.

The next morning`s Wall Street Journal
had two full pages of Foreclosure Notices for Denver. In many cases the notices showed outstanding balances that were even higher than the original principal amounts if not equal or just slightly less, suggesting that these homeowners had taken out interest-only mortgages, one of the sub-prime mortgage products that has caused so much grief for U.S. homeowners.

That same day, CNN reported there were more than 1 million foreclosures in the U.S. this year as a lead into a story on a Foreclosure Prevention Summit taking place in Baltimore.

The summit was apparently quite successful in assisting many homeowners to avert foreclosure.

That is great, but the very existence of the summit is disturbing.

Thankfully, foreclosures, which occur when mortgagees default on their payments to the point where the mortgagor sells their home out from under them, are a rarity in Canada thanks to cultural, regulatory and market differences.

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How to Win bidding Wars

For sellers, bidding wars or multiple offers from buyers are a dream come true. Numerous bidding wars took place in the United States and in many parts of Canada before the economic meltdown of 2008, but for the most part, such widespread buying frenzies are no longer taking place. Yet even in today`s balanced market, bidding wars continue on specific properties in certain areas.

Although we are seeing many examples of multiple offers, it does not necessarily mean buyers are overpaying for properties.

In most cases, sellers are offering their homes for sale at 5 per cent to 10 per cent below market value and are thus generating interest among several buyers, who then bid up the property to an eventual sale price that is either close to or slightly higher than the actual market value.

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Our time to shine

Canada and the U. S. are experimenting with two radically different responses to the great recession of 2008-09. The Obama administration has opted for a massive increase in government spending and government debt. It enacted a colossal stimulus package, followed by a topped-up supplemental budget for the second half of the 2009 fiscal year and an even more extravagant budget for 2010. U. S. federal budget deficits are exceeding a trillion dollars a year; over the next 10 years, the country will accept more debt relative to national income than at any time since the end of Second World War -- and that`s before counting the cost of the President`s ambitious health-care plans. (Obama insists his plans will save money but nobody believes it --not even the Democrats` own Congressional Budget Office.)

Recovery has to come to the U. S. eventually. But everybody expects that recovery to be sluggish, especially since the post-recession U. S. economy will have to shoulder heavy new taxes; the Bush tax cuts expire in 2010. The top federal income tax rate will return to 39.6%. Taxes on dividends and capital gains will rise. Middle-income families will lose half their per-child tax credits.

And more tax increases seem certain to follow. The version of health reform making its way through the House of Representatives includes a payroll tax of up to 8% on businesses that do not offer health insurance to their employees. A surtax on high-income individuals would raise the top combined federal-state income tax rate past 50% in California, New York and other high-tax jurisdictions.




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How to change EI

As the worst global recession since the Second World War grinds on -- although this week, the Bank of Canada declared the downturn over in Canada -- workers are facing pay cuts, unpaid leave and layoffs. Labour strife has swelled. The wealth hit from battered investment portfolios and falling home prices is forcing consumers to adjust their expectations, too. Today is the third instalment of the Financial Post`s summer-long "Getting Real" series exploring the reality check now underway.

---

Legislators and policy analysts have been throwing their share of bricks at the federal Employment Insurance scheme in the belief the system is failing out-of-work Canadians.

Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff pushed changes to EI to the point where, in an effort to avoid a summer election, Prime Minister Stephen Harper agreed to establish a working group of Conservative and Liberal party officials to study the scheme and propose improvements. The panel is to report back with recommendations in late September.




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REIN Canada committed to the cause

The members of the Real Estate Investment Network(REIN), led by President Don Campbell, are passionate in their support for Habitat for Humanity. REIN Canada is 3,400 members strong, and through book sales and other initiatives, they have raised almost $500,000 toward the building of new homes for families in Edmonton since 2005.

Campbell believes 100 per cent in the Habitat for Humanity program. Along with his wife, REIN CFO Connie Campbell, he says, "We are a community and we are in an economic turmoil. I believe that in good times and in bad times, people have to find a way to support their community."

With their support for Habitat, the Campbells and REIN have found a way to do exactly that.

"For every house they build in Edmonton, they build another one internationally," Campbell says. "Habitat Edmonton is so well-organized and they`re willing to do whatever it takes. They have passion for what they`re doing -and so do we."




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May GDP shows economy continues to correct

OTTAWA -- Canada`s economy contracted in May at its fastest pace in three months as the recession continued to hammer the manufacturing sector and weaken demand for exports.

Statistics Canada said Friday that gross domestic product declined by a worse than expected 0.5% during the month. That followed a revised 0.2% drop in April, and extended the economic declines to 10 straight months.

"Over the last four months, the goods-producing industries have contributed the most to the decrease in real GDP, while the output of the service sector has remained essentially unchanged," the federal agency said.

"The energy and manufacturing sectors were the main contributors to May`s decline. Construction and wholesale trade also decreased. Conversely, the activities of real estate agents and brokers as well as retail trade advanced in the month."




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Canada`s taxman goes after eBay sellers

Canadians who are high-volume sellers of products on the online eBay marketplace may find themselves being audited by the Canada Revenue Agency beginning this fall.

Revenue Minister Jean-Pierre Blackburn said Thursday anyone who has sold products on the Web site could avoid audits, fines and penalties by voluntarily coming forward and declaring the revenue to the agency.

"Taxpayers should know that the tax laws that apply to traditional commerce apply in the same way to electronic commerce, like eBay selling," Mr. Blackburn said in a statement. "I strongly encourage eBay sellers, and for that matter, any taxpayer who has not already done so, to correct their tax affairs as soon as possible to avoid penalties or prosecution."




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Oilpatch called key to Canada`s future

CALGARY - The Alberta-centred petroleum industry will add $3.6 trillion to Canada`s gross domestic product and create nearly one million additional jobs over the next 25 years through the investment of $1 trillion, a study by a Calgary think-tank suggests.

In what it is describing as the most comprehensive study of its kind, the Canadian Energy Research Institute on Thursday said that good times in the oil industry will spill over to the rest of the economy.

"What we really show is that whether it`s tight gas development in British Columbia or oilsands development in Alberta or natural gas and oil development offshore Eastern Canada, it truly benefits all parts of Canada," said research vice-president Peter Howard.




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Canada`s economic recovery in sight: conference board

Economy to grow 2.7 per cent in 2010, says report


OTTAWA — Manitoba and the Maritime provinces have avoided altogether one of the worst recessions since the Second World War, while the remainder of the country will begin to dig itself out in the second half of the year, the Conference Board of Canada said Thursday.

The think-tank said in its summer provincial outlook that Canada will still end the year with negative growth of 1.9 per cent, but that gross domestic product will increase to 2.7 per cent in 2010.

B.C. will post its worst contraction in 27 years, falling 2.5 per cent, but will bounce back to a rate of 3.4 per cent in 2010, thanks to a modest recovery in forestry and manufacturing and the stimulus effects of the 2010 Olympic Winter Games.




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Where to be when inflation strikes

Suppose you have decided, like many, that inflation is the next step for the economy. First off, welcome to the club. Despite slack in the economy, it is our view that (a) interest rates at zero percent and (b) massive government printing of dollars, will — has to in fact — result in future inflation.

Now, the U.S. may not experience Zimbabwe-type inflation, but since inflation has been a non-issue for so long, even the slightest uptick is likely to send investors scrambling for ways to protect themselves.

It may not be all bad, though. Many economists believe that mild (4%?) inflation is one way out of the financial mess the world has found itself in. What`s more, it`s not necessarily bad for the stock market either. In fact, all assets might go up in value — stocks, houses, gold — you name it. Your portfolio and net worth could look pretty good indeed, on paper.

Inflation, then, may not be so bad. Generally, it is the policy responses to inflation — hiking interest rates and slamming the brakes on the economy — that gets investors worried.





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