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January 2013 Canadian Economic Fundamentals

Ally

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The Canadian economy: Year in review and 2013 outlook





Video interviews with Ben Tal and Craig Alexander.







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Ally

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We're all better off with a strong housing market





If you think about it, every home was at one point a new house. And whether you work in the building industry, or government, or you simply live in a home in the GTA, housing is something we`re all in together (pardon the pun).



Homebuyers can only purchase what they can afford and what the industry builds. The industry only builds what consumers want and can afford. And government puts in place the policies and solutions to control how it all happens.





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Slowdown in home construction a 'welcome development'




Canada`s residential construction industry is following the housing resale market down, which for many observers is a good thing for the broader economy.




Housing starts in Canada fell in December to an annual pace just shy of 198,000, down from more than 201,000 a month earlier, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. Wednesday.





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Bank of Canada's Macklem hints at steady-as-she-goes style




OTTAWA ` Ordinarily, a speech by anyone other than Canada`s top central banker would not garner much attention.




But when that person is seen as Mark Carney`s heir apparent, people take notice ` even when the event is off the beaten media path.




So it was Thursday, when Tiff Macklem, the Bank of Canada`s No.2 policy chief, addressed a university audience in Kingston,Ont.





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Home sweet home or retirement nest egg?





R







etirement preparedness requires one to think ahead and to save for the future. As everyone has his or her own personal financial situation and specific retirement goals, the ideal saving strategy will vary by individual. A good place to start measuring one`s saving success is by completing a net worth analysis, one of the many important components of a financial plan.







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Are stubborn sellers killing the real estate crash?




Like many others, Toronto public relations manager Megan Vickell is sitting on the real estate sidelines dreaming of bargains to come.





After a dropoff in sales, the debate over the future of Canada`s housing market has come down to an argument over how much prices will pull back





The 28-year-old has never owned a property and is hoping to scoop up a discounted Toronto condo when prices fall off today`s frothy record highs.





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Bank of Canada deputy Macklem sounds warning on housing market, consumer debt




KINGSTON, Ont. ` Bank of Canada senior deputy governor Tiff Macklem said Thursday the economy is expected to pick up this year, but sounded a note of caution amid a soft housing market and weak export demand.





Bank of Canada Senior Deputy Governor Tiff Macklem has emerged as the front-runner to succeed Mark Carney as head of the central bank as it grapples with slowing growth and record consumer debt levels. Continue reading.





`Near-term momentum now appears to be slightly softer than previously anticipated,` Macklem said in a speech at Queen`s University in Kingston, Ont.





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Canada to get boost from U.S. growth surge in 2013




TORONTO ` Economists predict a resurgent U.S. economy will be a growth leader in the developed world this year, allowing Canada to benefit by riding its coattails.




That was the consensus at the Economic Club of Canada`s 2013 outlook forum, held in Toronto Friday and attended by some of Canada`s top economists.





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Cooling housing market seen as 'healthy'




The sharp year-over-year decline in national home sales that weighed on the housing market through the second half of 2012 persisted right through to the new year, the Canadian Real Estate Association is expected to report Tuesday when it releases December's figures.





Observers now expect the softness to continue into 2013, and foresee the decline in sales causing price growth to stagnate. But many suggest this is healthy: if prices hold flat for much of the year while the economy and incomes continue to grow, that should remove some froth from the market, decreasing the chances of a more significant correction when interest rates rise and eat into affordability.





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Why more home sellers are listing in January




Traditionally, January is a slow month for real estate as most sellers choose to wait until the middle of February in the hopes of capitalizing on the early spring market. However, given the uncertainty in the housing market right now, more sellers are opting to put their house on the market in January.




This presents an opportunity for buyers. Most people are reluctant to uproot their families during the school year, so that means less competition ` and fewer bidding wars. Lenders will not be as busy, so buyers can expect a more efficient process to get approved for a mortgage to ensure they have financing in place before making an offer.





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Exciting things are happening in the REIT sector




Nothing exciting ever happens in the sleepy world of real estate investment trusts (REITs). They quietly go about their business of buying, developing and leasing commercial property and paying out above-average cash-advantaged returns to investors. No drama, such as the recent battle for control of Canadian Pacific. No life on the edge, such as RIM is experiencing. Some might describe them as a backwater of the securities industry.




At least that was the case until last week when the REIT world was hit by not one but two shocks of seismic proportions.





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Cenovus Energy takes a flyer on portable drilling rig




EDMONTON - Cenovus Energy (TSX:CVE) calls its new helicopter-portable oilsands drilling rig a `gamechanger` that uses half the water of traditional rigs, and works throughout the year in muskeg regions.




While the firm could eventually reduce its yearly drilling costs by $100 million with the units, it was frustration with the traditional winter drilling rush that spawned the `SkyStrat` development three years ago.





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Never mind oil, coals deserves to take its lumps, as well




EDMONTON - If you still believe Alberta`s oilsands are a major contributor to the world`s greenhouse gas emissions, you`d better check your math.




The oilsands, which produce about two per cent of the world`s daily crude supplies, account for just seven per cent of Canada`s carbon emissions, or less than 0.2 per cent of the global total.





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December housing starts down as expected





Jan. 15, 2013, Ottawa ` The seasonally adjusted annual rate of housing starts was 197,976 units in December 2012, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). This is down slightly from 201,376 units in November 2012.







`As expected, housing starts remained below their recent trend in Canada. The decrease recorded in December was due to a decline in rural starts, while urban starts remained stable. Housing starts were below their trends in all regions except Ontario,` said Mathieu Laberge, deputy chief economist at CMHC.





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Housing enters 'correction mode'




There are early signs of a "gradual correction" in the housing market following a period where consumer finances became "stretched," Bank of Canada senior deputy Governor Tiff Macklem said in a speech last Thursday.




Canadian existing home sales fell in December, led by a drop in Vancouver, capping an annual decline in transactions, a national realtor group said.





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Prices steady, but sales down 17%




So far it`s looking like a soft landing for Canada`s housing market, analysts, economists and realtors generally agree, despite the fact home sales were down 17.4 per cent in December over a year earlier, according to figures released Tuesday by the Canadian Real Estate Association.




With prices up an average 1.6 per cent across Canada in December year over year ` six per cent in Toronto ` housing experts are looking to the spring market, the busiest time of year for home sales, as the best barometer of where the housing market is ultimately headed.





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Home sales plunge, market clearly in 'correction mode'






On a month-over-month basis, sales were little changed from November, the Canadian Real Estate Association said today. New listings slipped 1.3 per cent from November as home sellers pulled back.





The MLS Home Price Index, which factors out changes in the types of properties sold, rose 3.3 per cent from a year earlier, marking the slowest growth since April, 2011, The Globe and Mail's Tara Perkins reports.






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Ally

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Are stubborn sellers killing the real estate crash?





Like many others, Toronto public relations manager Megan Vickell is sitting on the real estate sidelines dreaming of bargains to come.







The 28-year-old has never owned a property and is hoping to scoop up a discounted Toronto condo when prices fall off today's frothy record highs.





Read the full article here.
 

Ally

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Report finds clout of manufacturing tops oil and gas




The oil and gas industry is increasing its clout in the Canadian economy, but the manufacturing sector continues to have a greater impact on both economic growth and jobs, says an internal federal government analysis obtained by Postmedia News.




"This piece highlights the growing importance of the oil and gas extraction sector to the Canadian economy, largely driven by high oil prices in recent years, while noting that the manufacturing sector remains a greater contributor to GDP and employment," said a memorandum sent by a senior bureaucrat to Environment Canada's former deputy minister, Paul Boothe.





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Jim Flaherty on home sales dive; "I don't mind if prices come down a bit, too"




The way Jim Flaherty sees it, his July changes to Canada`s mortgage rules are having the desired effect on the housing market.




`Well, yeah,` the finance minister told The Globe and Mail. `I don`t mind prices coming down a bit, too.`




Mr. Flaherty`s comments Tuesday followed new numbers showing Canadian home sales posted their fastest year-over-year decline in December since he tightened mortgage rules in July.



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