Welcome!

By registering with us, you'll be able to discuss, share and private message with other members of our community.

SignUp Now!

January 2011 U.S. Economic Fundamentals

Ally

Research Assistant
Registered
Joined
Mar 24, 2009
Messages
16,743
U.S. recovery gains traction





OTTAWA ` The U.S. manufacturing sector continues to power ahead, with data Monday indicating it expanded in December to a seven-month high ` lending credence to analysts who believe the American economy will post strong growth in 2011.





The Institute of Supply Management`s key index of factory activity rose to 57 after slipping back slightly in November to 56.6. Readings over 50 suggest the economy is expanding, and December's 57 result was roughly in line with market expectations.





`We`re off to the new year on a strong foot,` Zach Pandl, U.S. economist at Nomura Securities in New York, told Reuters. `The underlying details of the report were very strong.`





Among subcomponents, new orders increased 4.3 points to 60.9 and production climbed 5.7 points to 60.7. There was a slight drop, of 1.8 points, in the employment subindex.



Read the full article here.
 

Ally

Research Assistant
Registered
Joined
Mar 24, 2009
Messages
16,743
Oil rallies to $90 on strong U.S. job data






NEW YORK - Oil prices bounced back to above $90 a barrel on Wednesday as unexpectedly big gains in U.S. private sector jobs spurred optimism the economy was recovering at a faster pace.




Wall Street and commodities markets latched on to the ADP Employer Services employment report, which showed the biggest rise in its data which goes back to 2000. Oil shook off early losses and turned positive after failing to drop below $88 a barrel.




Oil fell earlier in the day after suffering the biggest single-day drop since mid-November on Tuesday. Crude was initially led lower by a stronger dollar, which typically weighs on commodities as they become more expensive for buyers using other currencies.




Markets are now awaiting the release of December U.S. non-farm payrolls data due out on Friday for further signs the U.S. economy is recovering more quickly than expected.




Read the full article here.
 

Ally

Research Assistant
Registered
Joined
Mar 24, 2009
Messages
16,743
Chart of the Day: Actually, the U.S. has looked like Japan for a long time





The Japanese economy has long been locked in a period of anemic growth, blamed by analysts such as Richard Koo of Nomura on its lengthy deleveraging process.




But what if that problem is being overestimated, and Japan's real problem lay with its aging population instead?




According to HSBC, while deleveraging certainly matters, demographics may be the more important factor in Japan's slowdown.




Just look at Japan's GDP per capita (in red) compared to the U.S. (black). Yes, the slowdown from 1996-2000 was a Japanese only affair, but otherwise the two economies move very much in sync when population is considered.




Read the full article here.
 

Ally

Research Assistant
Registered
Joined
Mar 24, 2009
Messages
16,743
Comparing recoveries: Job changes




The United States added 103,000 jobs on net in December, the Labor Department said today. While growth is better than shrinking, of course, the number was substantially lower than what economists had been expecting.




The growth was primarily driven by jobs added in leisure and hospitality (in particular, the sub-sector of food services and drinking places) and in health care. Other industries` payrolls remained largely flat.




The chart above shows job changes in this recession compared with recent ones, with the black line representing the current downturn. The line has risen since last year, but still has a long way to go before the job market fully recovers to its pre-recession level. Since the downturn began in December 2007, the economy has shed, on net, about 5.2 percent of its nonfarm payroll jobs. And that doesn`t even account for the fact that the working-age population has continued to grow, meaning that if the economy were healthy we should have more jobs today than we had before the recession.



Read the full article here.
 

Ally

Research Assistant
Registered
Joined
Mar 24, 2009
Messages
16,743
U.S. jobless rate may not return to 5% until 2020s




The U.S. labor market`s performance in December ` a gain of 103,000 payroll jobs ` was slightly better than the average monthly increase throughout 2010 of roughly 94,000 jobs a month. But that pace was barely enough to keep pace with long-run growth in the labor force.




The economy lost almost 8.4 million jobs from December 2007 to December 2009. It added 1.1 million jobs in 2010. At December`s pace, just replacing the rest of those lost jobs would take 70 more months ` roughly six years, taking us to November 2016. That would be almost nine years from the start of the recession for U.S. payrolls to return to where they peaked before the downturn.



Read the full article here.
 

Ally

Research Assistant
Registered
Joined
Mar 24, 2009
Messages
16,743
Bernanke sees slow drop in jobless even with growth




WASHINGTON`U.S. Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke told Congress Friday that there`s increasing evidence that a `self-sustaining` economic recovery is taking hold, but he said the Fed`s $600-billion (U.S.) Treasury bond-buying program is still needed because it will take years for unemployment to drop to more normal levels.




Testifying before the Senate Budget Committee, Bernanke offered a more optimistic outlook, saying the economy should grow more strongly this year as consumers and businesses boost their spending.




However, he said that even with the expected improvements, it could still take four to five years for unemployment to drop to a historically normal rate of around 6 per cent.




Bernanke spoke one hour before the government released a disappointing employment report. Employers added only 103,000 jobs in December. The unemployment rate fell to 9.4 per cent partly because people gave up looking for jobs. The report suggested only slow healing in the jobs market. Many economists had forecast much bigger job gains, signaling that a crucial corner had been turned in the labour market recovery.



Read the full article here.
 

Ally

Research Assistant
Registered
Joined
Mar 24, 2009
Messages
16,743
U.S. set for long-term high unemployment





If there's one word that sums up the psyche of millions of Americans at the moment, that would be it.




After expectations of a blowout number, U.S. employment figures released Friday were a big disappointment, showing that job creation has gone nowhere in the past three years and could take at least four or five years to get rolling again.




With the economic recovery sluggish, the United States appears to be settling into a period of long-term, high unemployment -- a phenomenon that has long been part of the culture in many European countries, but not here.




The U.S. economy now has fewer jobs than it did a decade ago, according to statistics from the U.S. Labor Department, and the ranks of the long-term unemployed continue to expand.




To create enough positions for the millions of workers laid off during the Great Recession and the country's growing population, the U.S. economy needs to start adding at least 200,000 jobs a month. For a faster drop in the country's unemployment rate -- which has been stuck above 9% since May 2009 -- around 400,000 jobs need to be created each month.



Read the full article here.

 

Ally

Research Assistant
Registered
Joined
Mar 24, 2009
Messages
16,743
Property tax appeals flood cities and states




Cities and states, already straining to balance budgets, are in for another shock in 2011 as hordes of property owners appeal tax assessments, demanding lower levies that reflect battered real estate values. Less property tax revenue means more pressure on local governments to cut services, especially public schools and police and fire departments that rely heavily on those taxes.




U.S. home prices have tumbled 30.5 percent below their April 2006 peak, according to the 20-city S&P/Case-Shiller index as of Oct. 31, the latest available figure. That matches the decline in values during the Great Depression's darkest days, from 1925 to 1933, according to Yale University economist Robert J. Shiller, who helped develop the index.




In Michigan, where Governor-elect Rick Snyder has warned that hundreds of towns face financial crises, tax appeals are overflowing at the office of Patricia L. Halm, head of the state Tax Tribunal. "We're just getting swamped," says Halm, 54, who was appointed to the Lansing-based administrative court in 2003. "We're constantly buying new file cabinets to hold all the cases. We even have six surplus file cabinets in the courtroom."



Read the full article here.
 

Ally

Research Assistant
Registered
Joined
Mar 24, 2009
Messages
16,743
Real worls woes for Disney's Ideal Town




Walt Disney (DIS) built Celebration, Fla., as an idealized vision of a circa-World War II small town, where litter-free streets are lined with homes, some featuring white picket fences and front porches. That doesn't mean Celebration can escape 21st century problems. The town's foreclosure rate is about double the state's, as homeowners who paid a premium for a version of utopia fall behind on their mortgages. In December a resident on the verge of losing his house shot himself after a 14-hour standoff with police. Three days earlier the 16-year-old town had its first murder when a man was bludgeoned with an ax. "A lot of people bought homes in Celebration thinking Tinker Bell had sprinkled the town with pixie dust," says Michael Olenick, chief executive officer of mortgage data firm Legalprise in West Palm Beach. "Reality is hitting hard."




The foreclosure rate in Celebration since the beginning of 2009, based on notices that initiate cases, is one for every 20 residents, compared with one per 48 in Florida as a whole, according to Legalprise. Celebration home values have dropped as much as 60 percent from their 2006 peak, while statewide values are down 51 percent, data from Seattle-based research firm Zillow.com show. Foreclosures in Celebration are occurring at a higher rate in part because property owners in financial trouble are walking away from vacation homes in the town, where real estate sells for about 30 percent more than it does in surrounding communities, according to Olenick. Before the recession, people were willing to pay more for living in a Disney "fantasyland," he says.





Read the full article here.
 

Ally

Research Assistant
Registered
Joined
Mar 24, 2009
Messages
16,743
4 Experts forecast 2011 housing market





We asked top real estate

experts Ilyce Glink of Thinkglink.com, Paul Bishop of the National Association of Realtors, Barbara Corcoran of the Today show, and Dan Green of TheMortgageReports.com to share their thoughts on the housing market in 2011. Here's their takeaway on what to expect.






Glum market fundamentals, limited bright spots






Real estate isn't much better than in the past two years. Unemployment is still high, and real estate sales are tied to jobs. Unemployment might have to go below 8 percent before the market is spurred.




Even with record low interest rates, lots of people don't qualify to buy a house. And the number of households is shrinking. People don't have enough money to live separately. Also, foreclosure is impacting housing enormously. Buyers don't want to pay what sellers want. That drives down prices.




Read the full article here.
 

Ally

Research Assistant
Registered
Joined
Mar 24, 2009
Messages
16,743
Housing bust creates new kind of declining city





In the Inland Empire and other former home-building hot spots, the housing bust has created a new kind of declining city, different from the nation's traditional rusting centers of industry, that could languish for years.







Although the causes of the decline in these metropolitan areas are distinct from the loss of employment from shrinking manufacturing and industry in some of the nation's old industrial powerhouses, these areas could experience fates similar to places such as Cleveland and Detroit, with neighborhoods experiencing high rates of vacancies for a very long time, according to a study to be released Thursday.







"Some neighborhoods are going to suffer tremendously or are never going to come back or come back very, very slowly," said James R. Follain, senior fellow at the Rockefeller Institute of Government and author of the study published by the Research Institute for Housing America, a division of the Mortgage Bankers Assn.





Read the full article here.
 

Ally

Research Assistant
Registered
Joined
Mar 24, 2009
Messages
16,743
Decline in U.S. housing now greater than in Depression





The meltdown of the U.S. housing market now has the ugly distinction as having eclipsed that of the collapse of the Great Depression.



A new report from Zillow.com, a real estate site based in the United States, shows the peak-to-trough plunge in U.S. home values reached 26 per cent in November, down from the June 2006 high. That's a shade more than the 25.9-per-cent drop between 1928 and 1933, Zillow chief economist Stan Humphries said yesterday.




November, Mr. Humphries wrote, marked the 53rd consecutive monthly decline in national home values, bringing them to the levels of October 2003.




"More worrisome, the pace of home value declines also notched up again with the monthly depreciation rate increasing to 0.78 per cent in November," he said. "This is the highest rate of monthly depreciation since February 2009."



Read the full article here.
 

Ally

Research Assistant
Registered
Joined
Mar 24, 2009
Messages
16,743
U.S. jobless claims see biggest jump in six months






WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. jobless claims jumped to their highest level since October while food and energy costs boosted producer prices, pointing to lingering headwinds for an economic recovery that had been showing renewed vigor.







A surge in exports to their highest level in two years helped narrow the trade deficit, however, an encouraging sign.







Despite the more positive outlook for growth in recent weeks, the job market still appeared to be struggling.







The number of Americans filing for first-time unemployment benefits rose unexpectedly to 445,000 from 410,000 in the prior week, the Labor Department said on Thursday. It was the biggest one-week jump in about six months, confounding analyst forecasts for a small drop to 405,000.




Read the full article here.
 

Ally

Research Assistant
Registered
Joined
Mar 24, 2009
Messages
16,743
Economist's view: Recovery




When the last several employment reports have shown modest gains in employment, many of us have noted that even so, the number of jobs created is barely enough to keep up with population growth. This graph of the employment-population ratio over the last 5 years shows this clearly:



Read the full article here.
 

Ally

Research Assistant
Registered
Joined
Mar 24, 2009
Messages
16,743
U.S. home foreclosures top one million for the first time





WASHINGTON ` Banks seized more than a million U.S. homes in one year for the first time last year, despite a slowdown in the last few months as questions around foreclosure processing arose, a leading firm said on Thursday.




Banks foreclosed on 69,847 properties in December, bringing the year's total to 1.05 million, topping the prior record of 918,000 homes seized in 2009, real estate data firm RealtyTrac said.




The number of foreclosure filings, which includes default notices, auctions and repossessions, was a record 2.9 million last year, including 257,747 filings in December.




"Total properties receiving foreclosure filings would have easily exceeded 3 million in 2010 had it not been for the fourth-quarter drop in foreclosure activity -- triggered primarily by the continuing controversy surrounding foreclosure documentation and procedures that prompted many major lenders to temporarily halt some foreclosure proceedings," said James J. Saccacio, chief executive officer of RealtyTrac.




Read the full article here.
 

Ally

Research Assistant
Registered
Joined
Mar 24, 2009
Messages
16,743
Illinois hikes taxes 66% in financial highwire act






The headline on this story looks more frightening than the reality ` `Illinois passes 66% income tax hike` ` but the situation is stark enough in itself.




Caught in a financial meltdown ` Illinois has $8.7 billion in overdue bills it can`t pay ` the state is trying a last-gasp crisis program to escape from disaster by pushing through a `temporary` hike in income taxes while legislating a limit on spending increases.




The current personal tax rate is just 3% and will be raised to 5%, which is why that 66% figure is misleading. In effect it`s a two percentage-point hike. Still, that equates to an extra $600 for every $1,000 in state taxes. British Columbia chased Premier Gordon Campbell right out of office for introducing the HST, which doesn`t come anywhere close to the extra taxes contemplated in Illinois.




To offset the hike, the legislature will impose a 2% limit on spending growth. If they go over target, the tax hike is revoked. Anyone who believes that, or the promise that the hike is `temporary`, needs to get the first flight out of Fantasyland. Canada`s income tax was also introduced as temporary ` 94 years ago.



Read the full article here.

 

Ally

Research Assistant
Registered
Joined
Mar 24, 2009
Messages
16,743
Another Great Depression for housing?





Fred Stevens, a policeman in Ohio, saw his house value drop from a peak of $103,000 when he refinanced in 2006 to a current low of less than $40,000. "I could have walked away, but wanted to do the right thing." November 2010 housing prices declined more in the current market than during the Great Depression, according to Zillow.







Whether prices have surpassed the price drop or not, individuals are certainly feeling the pain.







Stevens has been trying for the last two years to work out a short sale agreement with the help of American Homeowner Preservation (AHP), but the bank won't agree to the terms. Stevens faced financial difficulties following a divorce, loss of parent and other medical issues.

#mini_module_blank {
BORDER-BOTTOM: medium none; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; MARGIN: 10px; WIDTH: 269px; FLOAT: left; HEIGHT: 206px; FONT-SIZE: 12px; BORDER-TOP: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: medium none
}
#mini_module_blank IMG {
BORDER-BOTTOM: medium none; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; MARGIN: 0px; WIDTH: 265px; HEIGHT: 131px; BORDER-TOP: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: medium none
}
#mini_module_blank .mini_main {
PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; WIDTH: 269px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; BACKGROUND: url(http://www.aolcdn.com/travel/zing-background-no-photo); HEIGHT: 206px; PADDING-TOP: 0px
}
#mini_module_blank .mini_item_header {
PADDING-BOTTOM: 12px; MARGIN: 0px 20px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; FONT-SIZE: 16px; PADDING-TOP: 12px
}
#mini_module_blank .mini_item {
BORDER-BOTTOM: #cccccc 1px dotted; PADDING-BOTTOM: 8px; MARGIN: 0px 20px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-TOP: 8px
}
#mini_module_blank A {
COLOR: #49a3ca; TEXT-DECORATION: none
}
#mini_module_blank A:hover {
COLOR: #f98419; TEXT-DECORATION: underline
}









The bank did agree to a short sale of $43,000 less $8,950 for repairs plus other closing costs and back taxes or a net price of just $28,883, but it refuses to agree to a key part of AHP's program, according to Jorge Newbery, Director of AHP. AHP finds an investor to buy the home and signs a lease with option to buy with the homeowner.





Read the full article here.
 

Ally

Research Assistant
Registered
Joined
Mar 24, 2009
Messages
16,743
Detroit in Ruins




Yves Marchand and Romain Meffre's extraordinary photographs documenting the dramatic decline of a major American city. For an interactive tour of January's best photo exhibitions and books, see





Read the full article here.
 

Ally

Research Assistant
Registered
Joined
Mar 24, 2009
Messages
16,743
U.S housing market lags in 2010




The latest data on the U.S. housing market released Wednesday gave conflicting signals about the pace of the American recovery.




The Commerce Department reported builders started work on a total of 587,600 homes in 2010, the second lowest number since 1959. The worst year was 2009, when there were 554,000 starts.




And the pace appeared to be getting worse. The department reported that the numbers for December showed builders started work, at a seasonally adjusted annual rate, on 529,000 new homes and apartments.




That was a drop of 4.3 per cent from November and the slowest pace since October 2009.



Read the full article here.
 
Top Bottom