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January 2011 BC Economic Fundamentals

Ally

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News articles for January 2011.
 

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Evergreen Line evictions displace businesses





Port Moody businesses are being given eviction notices to make way for construction of the Evergreen transit line, even though funding for the project is not in place.




And for some, such as Steven Tetu, owner of EBI Cruiser Parts, the deadline is looming as early as this month.




Tetu, who leases land for his business on Moray Street from Port Moody Mayor Joe Trasolini, had initially been told he would have to be out of his shop in December, but now won`t likely move until later this month.




Tetu, who scrambled to find new digs in Port Coquitlam, is in the midst of negotiating with the province for compensation for the move, which he estimates will cost up to $19,000 for everything from building permits to a new phone number.




`What they`re paying me now is not enough to set the new warehouse up,` Tetu said, noting he will likely have to shut down his business for a month while he gets set up.




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Economics One Lesson by Henry Hazlitt: Chapter 18: What Rent Control Does





Government control of the rents of houses and apartments is a special form of price control. Most of its consequences are substantially the same as those of price control in general, but a few call for special consideration.






Rent controls are sometimes imposed as a part of general price controls, but more often they are decreed by a special law. A frequent occasion is the beginning of a war. An army post is set up in a small town; rooming houses increase rents for rooms; owners of apartments and houses increase their rents. This leads to public indignation. Or houses in some towns may be actually destroyed by bombs, and the need for armaments or other supplies diverts materials and labor from the building trades.




Rent control is initially imposed on the argument that the supply of housing is not `elastic``i.e., that a housing shortage cannot be immediately made up, no matter how high rents are allowed to rise. Therefore, it is contended, the government, by forbidding increases in rents, protects tenants from extortion and exploitation without doing any real harm to landlords and without discouraging new construction.




This argument is defective even on the assumption that the rent control will not long remain in effect. It overlooks an immediate consequence. If landlords are allowed to raise rents to reflect a monetary inflation and the true conditions of supply and demand, individual tenants will economize by taking less space. This will allow others to share the accommodations that are in short supply. The same amount of housing will shelter more people, until the shortage is relieved.




Rent control, however, encourages wasteful use of space. It discriminates in favor of those who already occupy houses or apartments in a particular city or region at the expense of those who find themselves on the outside. Permitting rents to rise to the free market level allows all tenants or would-be tenants equal opportunity to bid for space. Under conditions of monetary inflation or real housing shortage, rents would rise just as surely if landlords were not allowed to set an asking price, but were allowed merely to accept the highest competitive bids of tenants.



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Metro Vancouver property values surge dramatically






Residential property values in Vancouver and its closest neighbouring municipalities increased substantially over the past year.




But in some other areas, including Whistler and the Okanagan, this year's assessment figures told a different story, with values either holding steady or even decreasing.




Richmond showed the highest increases, with average values jumping 17.14 per cent, according to estimates posted on the B.C. Assessment Authority website.




Residential market values increased 13.03 per cent in West Vancouver, 12.17 per cent in Vancouver, 12.07 per cent in Burnaby, 9.22 per cent in Delta, 9.12 per cent in Coquitlam, 9.11 per cent in New Westminster, 8.84 per cent in North Vancouver District, 7.58 per cent in Surrey, and 6.55 per cent in Langley township.




Even the Winter Olympics, however, couldn't stop residential values in Whistler from sliding an estimated 2.06 per cent.




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Renters bear brunt of new threshold for homeowner grants





Not satisfied with merely perpetrating gross unfairness in the way property tax is applied in B.C., the provincial government is once again taking action to make it worse.




By raising the threshold for provincial homeowner grants by 10 per cent, the government will ensure that an additional group of millionaires will have their property taxes subsidized by general tax revenue that is paid into provincial coffers by, among others, people who can`t afford to buy a home of their own.




The threshold for the grant is now $1.15 million ` enough to cover 95.5 per cent of all B.C. homeowners, and almost all of those who live outside high-priced Metro Vancouver and the capital region. It will provide up to $570 a year for qualifying owners, plus up to $275 more for seniors or disabled people.




When you consider that the province has long been adding a hefty tax of its own municipal property tax bills, it may sound like the homeowner grants simply give people ` or, at least, the ones who qualify ` their money back. But the impact is much more perverse than that.




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Vancouver house prices continue to rise






VANCOUVER, Jan. 6 /CNW/ - Year-over-year, fourth-quarter 2010 house prices in Vancouver were up across the board according to the Royal LePage House Price Survey and Market Survey Forecast released today. The biggest gain came from single family homes on Vancouver's West Side.




Standard two-storey homes led the way, with average price gains across all neighbourhoods of 9.8 per cent over the same period last year, selling for a fourth quarter average of $1,007,500. Detached bungalows followed with year-over-year gains of 7.6 per cent, selling for a fourth quarter average of $891,500. Standard condominiums were close behind, selling for an average price of $484,500, a gain of 7 per cent.




While single family homes continued to dominate the market in terms of price gains, condos performed well across Metro Vancouver, particularly on the East Side.




"Condos are a big part of the Vancouver market because of the price point," said Bill Binnie, broker and owner of Royal LePage North Shore. "Condos are an investment vehicle, and many people downsize from single family homes to change their lifestyle. Plus, many new condos offer a 'bling' factor , such as granite counter tops, which is attractive to buyers." Eighty per cent of downtown properties sold in the fourth quarter were condos.






Vancouver buyers are being brought to the market by continued historically low interest rates and softening prices from the third quarter of 2010. Tight inventory and high prices in Vancouver's West Side are pushing up prices in the East Side, particularly for single family homes.



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Average Vancouver house price hits $1 million, expected to rise further: Report





OTTAWA ` Home prices will continue a "moderate and steady climb" this year, helped along by an improving economy and low interest rates, according to a report released Thursday.







Real estate services firm Royal LePage said the average price of a home in Canada will rise three per cent to $348,600, even as the number of transactions falls two per cent.







In Vancouver, the average price of a two-storey home is now more than $1 million, Royal LePage said, up 9.8 per cent over the last year. The report predicts an increase of 3.7 per cent for Vancouver house prices in 2011. The report says inventory is expected to grow 8 per cent, while interest rates will continue to be the most important factor, followed by employment levels.







It said that after a "lacklustre" third quarter in 2010, home prices were up between 3.9 and 4.6 per cent, year over year, in the year's fourth quarter. This marked a return to growth more typical of trends since the end of the recession, Royal LePage said.




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B.C. loses jobs as Canada gains in December; Unemployment stays at 7.6%






VANCOUVER - There was good news in the job market for much of Canada this past December with the release of new data showing job gains throughout the country ` everywhere but British Columbia, that is.




In all, there were 22,000 additional people working in Canada last month, Statistics Canada said Friday. That slightly exceeded economists' expectations for gains of 20,000.




B.C., meanwhile, lost 22,000 jobs, most of them (19,900) full-time positions.




The construction trade, health care and social assistance sectors suffered the heaviest job losses, but professionals working in the scientific and technical services sectors as well as finance, insurance, leasing and real estate also suffered.




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B.C. lumber industry 'poised to take off': Report





VANCOUVER - A new forecast is projecting West Coast lumber prices will swing from recessionary lows of $150 US per-thousand-board feet to peaks of $500 US within five years thanks to new market dynamics that have never converged before.




It won't happen soon, Russ Taylor, president of the consulting firm International Wood Markets said in an interview, since the lumber industry is still emerging from the worst market conditions it has faced in more than seven decades.




However, going into 2013 and 2014, Taylor said a steady uptick of housing construction in the battered United States market on top of the new markets still emerging in China and the rest of Asia, will boost demand.




At the same time, the ravages of the mountain pine beetle in British Columbia's forests and the limitations of an industry shrunk dramatically by the recession will squeeze supply.




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Vancouver's housing market still rosy







The average price of a home in Vancouver should climb 3.7 per cent this year, just above the increase expected for the country as a whole, Royal LePage Real Estate Services says.




Interest rates and employment levels will have the greatest influence on house prices in Vancouver this year, the real estate services firm said in a survey released Thursday.




For standard two-storey homes, Vancouver saw year-over-year average price gains of 9.8 per cent in the fourth quarter of last year. That brought the average price of two-storey homes to $1,007,500.




"Detached bungalows followed with year-over-year gains of 7.6 per cent, selling for a fourth quarter average of $891,500," Royal LePage said. "Standard condominiums were close behind, selling for an average price of $484,500, a gain of seven per cent."




Tight supply and high prices in the city's west side are driving up prices on the east side, especially for single-family homes, Royal LePage said.




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Greater Victoria home sales fall, prices remain high





Average selling prices for Greater Victoria homes increased in 2010, even though the total number of sales and the overall sales value slipped from the previous year.





"We expect balanced market conditions to continue in the coming months and this will give both sellers and buyers a sense of stability when making important decisions regarding their future housing needs," said Victoria Real Estate Board president Dennis Fimrite.




"Continued attractive mortgage rates will also contribute to a stable and balanced market."




Average prices have been stable and modest increases were seen in the major categories, Fimrite said this week.




Last year, the average price for a single-family house was $629,925, up by 8.46 per cent from $580,748 in 2009.




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Condominiums lead price gains





House prices in Greater Victoria improved in the fourth quarter of 2010 compared with the same period in 2009, according to a Royal LePage survey released Thursday.




The survey noted prices increased in all housing types with standard condominiums leading the way with price gains of 7.5 per cent to $285,000 compared with the fourth quarter of 2010.




Two-storey homes saw a gain of 6.9 per cent, selling in the fourth quarter for an average price of $480,000, while detached bungalows sold for an average price of $490,000, a gain of 3.4 per cent.




"Overall, Victoria is heading toward a more balanced market. Inventory levels are usually lowest from December to January, before new listings emerge in the spring," said Carol Geurts of Royal LePage Coast Capital Realty.




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Capital region jobless rate up





Greater Victoria's unemployment rate rose to 5.9 per cent in December ` the highest level in seven months `but still remains considerably lower than a year ago.




Victoria was below the provincial and Canadian unemployment rate of 7.6 per cent as B.C. shed jobs last month, Statistics Canada said. In November, B.C's unemployment was lower, at 6.9 per cent.




The capital region started 2010 with a 7.6 per cent unemployment rate. Year over year, the largest drop in employment sectors has come in retail and wholesale trade, which fell by 5,500 jobs, according to Statistics Canada.




The education sector was down about 3,000 jobs, but that figure could reflect work for substitute teachers. Also down to lesser degrees were the professional, scientific and technical sector, and the business, building and other services sector.




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B.C. tug companies optimistic that better times are finally on the horizon







VANCOUVER - B.C.'s tugboat industry is hoping an incoming wave of economic activity this year will offset a lengthy slump that left many tugs tied up dockside.




The economic downturn slowed port activity in 2009 and 2010, with fewer freighters as well as cruise and other ships needing the assistance of tugs to escort them in and out of B.C. harbours.




But tug companies tied to the forest industry suffered the greatest impact, as the business of towing logs or chip barges along the coast dried up significantly in many areas.




"Our industry probably had a decline of 30 per cent in business," said Capt. Phillip Nelson, president of the Council of Marine Carriers, a tug and barge industry association that represents 43 tugboat companies and several affiliate members. "And some companies lost a lot more business than that.




"On some days, every vessel some companies had were tied up," added Nelson, who noted that 350 tugs ply B.C. coastal waters with about 2,000 employees.




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HST wreaked havoc in B.C.: Experts





VICTORIA` It played a significant role in forcing the resignation of a premier, spurred a grassroots revolt and put a target squarely on the back of a number of government MLAs.




It was the harmonized sales tax and political observers say never before have three little letters wreaked such havoc in this province.




The tax, which combined the five per cent federal GST with the seven per cent provincial sales tax, came into force July 1 and was designed to stimulate the economy.




Six months after its inception, many sectors say it`s too early to expect to see the positive effects, while detractors claim the pinch has been immediate and painful.




Representatives of the homebuilding and hospitality sectors claim the tax has smothered growth by adding costs for things that were previously exempt from provincial sales tax.



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Minister Claus did, indeed, leave some gifts under the tree







Remember my wish list for Santa before Christmas ( "Dear Santa, peace in our buildings would be nice," Dec. 18 Westcoast Homes)?




Well, guess what arrived in my inbox on Christmas Eve? Yes: an answer from Santa himself. (a. k.a. Rich Coleman, B.C.'s minister responsible for housing.)




"Thank you for sharing the Christmas wish list of strataowners. I am pleased to be able to grant most of the wishes.




"The Strata Property Act was amended late last year to help protect the interests of strataowners. The changes will be brought into effect by regulation and involve two areas that cover significant items on your list.




"The first area is improved accountability. There will be new requirements for audited financial statements, as well as building depreciation reports to help strata corporations plan for future repair and maintenance costs.




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Peering into the 2011 housing picture





At this time of the year, I am always tempted to try to make a prediction about how the year ahead might unfold in terms of real estate markets and housing prices. The "price" question is always a topic of public conversation in our part of the world, regardless of whether we are cursing untouchable prices during boom periods or commiserating about the dwindling value of our precious investment in our homes during market slumps.




But I've avoided the temptation to make a prediction in years past and will do so again this year because I am conscious of the reality that housing prices are all about supply and demand. I simply don't track market statistics close enough to reliably analyze supply and demand.




I am also reminded that it has usually been forces external to our market that have tipped the supply-demand balance noticeably in one direction or another. Those tips have been small ones, either spiking the long, steady upward trend line in prices for a number of months or twisting the line down for a few months before it recovers again.




What I am trying to say, without actually making a prediction, is that I don't see ahead any huge and long-lasting departure from the trend of rising residential real estate prices in metro Vancouver. We're either currently at the end of a small recovery surge, in which the trend line will level out somewhat for a short period, or we may be at the beginning of a new steady upward climb, likely one slower and more normal than we experienced during most past real estate booms.




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When you understand the importance of job creation on real estate markets, this 36 page report will bring you excitement



British Columbia`s construction markets are emerging from a steep downturn that began in 2008 and rapidly gained momentum in 2009. Residential, industrial, commercialand utility construction all fell, carrying construction employment lower during 2009. Government stimulus programs targeting renovation and infrastructure construction helped to partially offset some of the losses.





The 2008`2009 recession was expected to be shorter than earlier downturns. More federal and provincial infrastructure programs are scheduled for 2010 and 2011. The Construction Sector Council (CSC) estimates that 50 percent of the total stimulus packages is expected to begin in 2010 and the final 20 percent carrying on to 2011. This activity combines with a housing recovery, which is already underway, to turn labour markets around.



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Kelowna housing starts up in 2010





As the world continues to struggle with the aftereffects of the recession, housing starts in Kelowna hint at a recovering economy.





Kelowna area housing starts increased to 957 homes in 2010 from 657 homes the previous year, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC).





While 2010 was an improvement over 2009, it is still nowhere near the 2,257 housing starts in 2008.





Both detached home and multi-family starts were up from 2009 levels, with 40 housing starts in December alone.



`Detached housing was the focus of new home construction last year,` says CMHC Market Analyst Paul Fabri.



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Kelowna housing starts up in 2010



As the world continues to struggle with the aftereffects of the recession, housing starts in Kelowna hint at a recovering economy.







Kelowna area housing starts increased to 957 homes in 2010 from 657 homes the previous year, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC).







While 2010 was an improvement over 2009, it is still nowhere near the 2,257 housing starts in 2008.







Both detached home and multi-family starts were up from 2009 levels, with 40 housing starts in December alone.



`Detached housing was the focus of new home construction last year,` says CMHC Market Analyst Paul Fabri.





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