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Expert recommends research and caution Ray Turchansky Freelance
Link to Article: Journal
Wednesday, February 13, 2008
EDMONTON - Don Campbell couldn`t believe a recent scene among wannabe real estate investors at the corner of Yonge and Bloor streets in Toronto, site of a planned condominium complex.
"People slept there overnight for four nights," said Campbell, president of the Calgary-based Real Estate Investment Network and author of 51 Success Stories from Canadian Real Estate Investors. "A sign up above read `$500,000 to $1.3 million,` although you could go across the street and buy something very similar for $425,000. Then the developer had the gall to paste a six over the five to make it `$600,000 to $1.3 million,` and the crowd cheered, saying `Look, it`s going up.` There was even a fight in the line.
"When you line up around a block with 200 people to buy the condo in the sky that doesn`t exist yet, put $20,000 down and plan to sell it as soon as it`s built, look in the lineup and tell me how many people have the exact same mentality. Then all you need is for one guy to panic and drop his price to get out, and the average price in the whole building goes down, and you`re completely at the whim of somebody else. You should only line up for U2 tickets."
Campbell is concerned about novice investors not researching what they`re buying and what the market potential is. The most common mistakes are investing for the short term, getting emotionally too high or too low as markets move up and down, and buying the wrong property.
"If you don`t have a long-term outlook, don`t invest in real estate, go buy gold or stocks and roll your dice. You have to make real estate boring, because that means you`re doing it right. Go jump out of an airplane with a parachute if you want excitement. Right now I am telling everybody to buy resale, to buy something built in 1997 or 1998, when there wasn`t a frenzy and people had the time to finish the properties."
Campbell is thankful the days of 38-and 42-per-cent annual price increases in Alberta real estate are over.
"If I can find a market that gives me an eight-per-cent increase every year and I`m putting 25 per cent down, that means I`m getting 33-per-cent return on my money on a capital gains basis, and it`s not a frenzy."
He said Edmonton`s housing prices, which fell 11.7 per cent during the last half of 2007, will dip again this spring, then rebound during the second half and be up 11 per cent on average during 2008. Calgary prices will be up 12 per cent, Red Deer 10 per cent and Grande Prairie 11 or 12 per cent.
"But in 2009, Grande Prairie and Peace River are going to go through the roof. There`s going to be a natural gas renaissance. If we`re not drilling the wells today, we`re not going to have supply, and gas is going to go up to $8.50 or $9, and therefore make the drilling go again."
Alberta`s wealth will affect its neighbouring provinces.
"A lot of Albertans have made a lot of money in Alberta and they`re throwing it at places; there`s no way economic fundamentals are driving Saskatoon prices up 38 or 40 per cent year after year. Average weekly earnings are down in Saskatchewan compared to Alberta. Can you do well in Saskatchewan -- I think so, but I don`t know so; in Alberta I know so.
"In B.C., it takes 73 per cent of your average income to buy an average house in Vancouver. I love Fort St. John and Dawson Creek as an investment in B.C. I`d be careful about most other regions. We`re picking Abbotsford, Chilliwack and Maple Ridge as the big winners in the Lower Mainland. Vancouver Island I wouldn`t touch with a 10-foot pole unless I`m in Courtenay-Comox, which is serviced by WestJet and easy to get to by wealthy Albertans. And right now I wouldn`t touch a town that`s only forestry, because this pine beetle thing is massive -- the Williams Lake, Quesnel, Prince George corridor is going to be devastated."
Campbell sees another hot spot in Canada.
"The Kitchener-Waterloo-Cambridge area in Ontario, which we call the economic Alberta of Ontario, is driven not by automotives but by universities, and it`s going to do incredibly well."
Campbell says he wouldn`t buy real estate in the U. S. until next February.
"We haven`t seen anywhere near the full drop -- especially in the Phoenix, Vegas, Florida areas. The foreclosures will start peaking around October, which is about three months after the peak of the (mortgage interest rate) resets. Then the foreclosures have to get on the market and drive the prices down. If you`re just going to go buy and live there, go do it. But if you`re going to do a quick flip or have renters in it, I think you`re way too early, especially if you`re going to finance it. The dollar`s going to be around 90 to $1.10 for quite a while."
Ray Turchansky, a freelance writer and income tax preparer, writes Wednesdays and Saturdays in The Journal. He may be contacted at [email protected]
© The Edmonton Journal 2008
Link to Article: Journal
Wednesday, February 13, 2008
EDMONTON - Don Campbell couldn`t believe a recent scene among wannabe real estate investors at the corner of Yonge and Bloor streets in Toronto, site of a planned condominium complex.
"People slept there overnight for four nights," said Campbell, president of the Calgary-based Real Estate Investment Network and author of 51 Success Stories from Canadian Real Estate Investors. "A sign up above read `$500,000 to $1.3 million,` although you could go across the street and buy something very similar for $425,000. Then the developer had the gall to paste a six over the five to make it `$600,000 to $1.3 million,` and the crowd cheered, saying `Look, it`s going up.` There was even a fight in the line.
"When you line up around a block with 200 people to buy the condo in the sky that doesn`t exist yet, put $20,000 down and plan to sell it as soon as it`s built, look in the lineup and tell me how many people have the exact same mentality. Then all you need is for one guy to panic and drop his price to get out, and the average price in the whole building goes down, and you`re completely at the whim of somebody else. You should only line up for U2 tickets."
Campbell is concerned about novice investors not researching what they`re buying and what the market potential is. The most common mistakes are investing for the short term, getting emotionally too high or too low as markets move up and down, and buying the wrong property.
"If you don`t have a long-term outlook, don`t invest in real estate, go buy gold or stocks and roll your dice. You have to make real estate boring, because that means you`re doing it right. Go jump out of an airplane with a parachute if you want excitement. Right now I am telling everybody to buy resale, to buy something built in 1997 or 1998, when there wasn`t a frenzy and people had the time to finish the properties."
Campbell is thankful the days of 38-and 42-per-cent annual price increases in Alberta real estate are over.
"If I can find a market that gives me an eight-per-cent increase every year and I`m putting 25 per cent down, that means I`m getting 33-per-cent return on my money on a capital gains basis, and it`s not a frenzy."
He said Edmonton`s housing prices, which fell 11.7 per cent during the last half of 2007, will dip again this spring, then rebound during the second half and be up 11 per cent on average during 2008. Calgary prices will be up 12 per cent, Red Deer 10 per cent and Grande Prairie 11 or 12 per cent.
"But in 2009, Grande Prairie and Peace River are going to go through the roof. There`s going to be a natural gas renaissance. If we`re not drilling the wells today, we`re not going to have supply, and gas is going to go up to $8.50 or $9, and therefore make the drilling go again."
Alberta`s wealth will affect its neighbouring provinces.
"A lot of Albertans have made a lot of money in Alberta and they`re throwing it at places; there`s no way economic fundamentals are driving Saskatoon prices up 38 or 40 per cent year after year. Average weekly earnings are down in Saskatchewan compared to Alberta. Can you do well in Saskatchewan -- I think so, but I don`t know so; in Alberta I know so.
"In B.C., it takes 73 per cent of your average income to buy an average house in Vancouver. I love Fort St. John and Dawson Creek as an investment in B.C. I`d be careful about most other regions. We`re picking Abbotsford, Chilliwack and Maple Ridge as the big winners in the Lower Mainland. Vancouver Island I wouldn`t touch with a 10-foot pole unless I`m in Courtenay-Comox, which is serviced by WestJet and easy to get to by wealthy Albertans. And right now I wouldn`t touch a town that`s only forestry, because this pine beetle thing is massive -- the Williams Lake, Quesnel, Prince George corridor is going to be devastated."
Campbell sees another hot spot in Canada.
"The Kitchener-Waterloo-Cambridge area in Ontario, which we call the economic Alberta of Ontario, is driven not by automotives but by universities, and it`s going to do incredibly well."
Campbell says he wouldn`t buy real estate in the U. S. until next February.
"We haven`t seen anywhere near the full drop -- especially in the Phoenix, Vegas, Florida areas. The foreclosures will start peaking around October, which is about three months after the peak of the (mortgage interest rate) resets. Then the foreclosures have to get on the market and drive the prices down. If you`re just going to go buy and live there, go do it. But if you`re going to do a quick flip or have renters in it, I think you`re way too early, especially if you`re going to finance it. The dollar`s going to be around 90 to $1.10 for quite a while."
Ray Turchansky, a freelance writer and income tax preparer, writes Wednesdays and Saturdays in The Journal. He may be contacted at [email protected]
© The Edmonton Journal 2008