February 2012 Canadian Economic Fundamentals

[Ally]

Housing market to remain steady in 2012





Canada's housing market will remain steady this year and through 2013, with home prices expected to rise moderately, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. said Monday




"With the Canadian economy set to expand at a moderate pace and mortgage rates expected to remain low, activity levels in 2012 in both new home construction and sales of existing homes will stay close to levels seen in 2011," said CMHC deputy chief economist Mathieu Laberge.




Housing starts will total 190,000 units in 2012 and 193,800 units next year, according to the government agency.






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[Ally]

Canadian Real Estate Market Stabilizing




The Canadian Real Estate Association says the country's real estate market is "stabilizing," as it reported the sharpest slowdown in demand in almost two years.




Home sales across the country were down 4.5 percent in January compared to December, the sharpest monthly decline since July 2010. Average prices were 2-percent higher than a year ago at $348,178, the smallest year-over-year increase in the last year.





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[Ally]

Study highlights labour gaps



For Calgary employers, the road to recruitment should lead to Los Angeles, Denver or even Dublin, a Calgary Economic Development study has found.





The demand and labour study published Tuesday identifies hot spots in Canada, the U.S., the U.K. and Ireland most able to fill the 25 job types - engineers, geologists, nurses, plumbers, carpenters - expected to face hiring shortfalls in the next few years.





"We wanted to get ahead of the curve this time, prepare for the future," said Mike Fotheringham, research manager at economic development. "The shortage of labour is really a drag on our economy. If we don't have the numbers that we need to get industry going at its full potential then we're not achieving our full potential."



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[Ally]

Canada threatens trade war with EU ahead of oil sands vote




OTTAWA ` Canada is threatening a potential trade war with the European Union over its attempts to single out oilsands as a dirtier kind of crude, a revelation that comes just days before a crucial vote on the matter.







Newly released documents reveal David Plunkett, Canada's new ambassador to the EU, has warned European officials the Canadian government will consider an international trade challenge to fight the bloc's proposed Fuel Quality Directive (FQD).





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[Ally]

Poll predicts Ottawa will toughen mortgage rules to cool market





OTTAWA - The federal government will make it tougher for many homebuyers to get mortgages this year as it grapples with an overheated property market, according to analysts in a Reuters poll, who also ruled out the prospect that prices could suddenly crash.




Ten of 14 economists and strategists surveyed last week in Reuters' first poll on the Canadian housing sector answered "yes" when asked if they thought Ottawa would tighten mortgage rules within the next 12 months.






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[Ally]

Canada's housing prices won't crash: Poll




OTTAWA ` Canada`s government will make it tougher for many homebuyers to get mortgages this year as it grapples with an overheated property market, according to analysts in a Reuters poll, who also ruled out the prospect that prices could suddenly crash.





Ten of 14 economists and strategists surveyed last week in Reuters` first poll on the Canadian housing sector answered `yes` when asked if they thought Ottawa would tighten mortgage rules within the next 12 months.





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[Ally]

Western provinces barely phased by economic uncertainty




The demographic and economic clout of the Western Canadian provinces is expected to continue to grow, according to the Conference Board of Canada's Provincial Outlook-Winter 2012. The recently-released 2011 Census revealed that the western provinces are a magnet for new arrivals, and strong commodity prices are expected to boost the western economies over the next two years.




"The recent economic slowdown is now barely noticeable in Western Canada," said Marie-Christine Bernard, Associate Director, Provincial Outlook. "Despite concerns over global growth and the lasting fiscal problems in Europe, growth in the Western Canadian provinces is expected to be a full percentage point stronger than in the rest of the country this year and next."





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[Ally]

EU committee makes no decision on Canadian oil sands




A European Union plan to classify oilsands crude oil as dirtier than other forms of fuel has been blocked after key Canadian allies abstained from a crucial vote on Thursday.




The EU plan was aimed at curbing emissions from transport fuels by 10 per cent and it classified oilsands fuel as more harmful to the environment than other sources of energy.





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[Ally]

Older workers increasing in work force, says report




Are we all destined to become Walmart greeters when retirement rolls around?




Unlikely, but a recent analysis of labour force trends by TD Economics reveals that a surprising number of older Canadians are taking up work in the retail sector.





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[Ally]

60-plus workers represent 8% of the workforce, but 80% of new job gains




The face of the Canadian worker is changing.




Gone are the days of hitting the magic retirement age and heading off to travel and enjoy life.




More Canadians are working past 60, some well into their 70s. Some want to stay busy by working, but others keep working because they can`t afford to retire.




And getting squeezed, in some cases, are other job-seekers, including younger Canadians, especially new graduates, whose unemployment rates have remained high at 14.5 per cent in January





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[Ally]

Canada's pattern of immigration spreads east and west




A metal fabrication business in northern New Brunswick is bringing in workers from Eastern Europe to assemble heating and ventilation systems. A food manufacturing company in a small rural community in the province has been attracting Romanians to work at its plant since the mid-2000s. A national coffee shop chain is recruiting for bilingual (French and English) workers for its stores in the Moncton region.





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[Ally]

Carney defends 'flexible' inflation target




The Bank of Canada`s loose approach to meeting its 2-per-cent inflation target is helping it adapt to changing circumstances and may allow it to use interest-rate moves to counter credit imbalances that threaten the economy, Governor Mark Carney said.




But he also suggested the bar is still high for using monetary policy to deter households from gorging on debt.





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[Ally]

Harsh reality of green energy doesn't match its spin




EDMONTON - A few weeks ago, after I wrote a column on TransCanada's proposed Keystone XL pipeline, a West Coast environmental activist challenged my numbers.




TransCanada's claim that the project would create 20,000 jobs was vastly overblown, he argued, noting that U.S. studies, including one by the State Department, showed the real figure was far lower.




I wasn't surprised. I get dozens of similar calls or emails every week from activists who are keen to spin me one way or another. It's all part of the ideological war over the future of the oilsands.





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[Ally]

Bank of Canada warns of possible debt 'shock'




OTTAWA ` The Bank of Canada has renewed its warning that debt-laden Canadians could face a "significant shock" if housing prices fall.







With the ratio of household debt to income reaching 153 per cent, fanned by low interest rates, there are concerns some consumers could soon be at the breaking point.





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[Ally]

Home starts and job levels diverge in Canada and the U.S.




Many factors determine the level of home starts in a region and in any given time period including prices and mortgage rates, which are usually wrapped up in the term affordability.




Another key determinant, one would think, would be the availability of jobs.




As jobs and incomes increase, the demand for housing should grow. There should be a close tie-in.




What`s currently being witnessed in both Canada and the U.S. is an inversion of the equation. Furthermore, the abnormal pattern is the opposite between the two countries.





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[Ally]

Irish could fill up to 80,000 construction jobs in Canada




UP TO 80,000 jobs in British Columbia could be filled by Irish construction workers, according to a delegation from western Canada which is visiting Ireland this week.




Manley MacLachlan, president of the British Columbia Construction Association, which represents over 2,000 companies, said yesterday there was `a world of opportunities` for suitable workers in the western province.




Mr MacLachlan is one of an 11-strong delegation that has travelled to Ireland from British Columbia and Alberta to find skilled labour to help fill thousands of vacancies in the construction and related trades. The British Columbia ministry of jobs, tourism and innovation is also represented.





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