I predict that oil will average $80-$90 within the first half of 2010. Then there will be another correction to about $40-$50 sometime in mid-year as OPEC ramps up production to take advantage of the high prices. This might once again create lots of fear (yeah!). The high prices will be back by end of year/early 2011 however. Hard to tell how this will affect the economy and jobs, but we should see some cautious management by oil bosses. I`ve set myself a reminder to check back on this thread this time next year.
Economic Predictions 2010
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QUOTE (greg12 @ Dec 28 2009, 01:32 AM) I predict that oil will average $80-$90 within the first half of 2010. Then there will be another correction to about $40-$50 sometime in mid-year as OPEC ramps up production to take advantage of the high prices. This might once again create lots of fear (yeah!). The high prices will be back by end of year/early 2011 however. Hard to tell how this will affect the economy and jobs, but we should see some cautious management by oil bosses. I`ve set myself a reminder to check back on this thread this time next year.
quite the contrary .. due to increased WORLDWIDE economic activity and continued middle east violence (Isrel, Iran, Iraq, Yemen, Somali ..) prices will NOT go down to sub $50 .. but hover along an upwardly sloped line between $60 and $120 (in late 2010 / mid 2011) ..
quite the contrary .. due to increased WORLDWIDE economic activity and continued middle east violence (Isrel, Iran, Iraq, Yemen, Somali ..) prices will NOT go down to sub $50 .. but hover along an upwardly sloped line between $60 and $120 (in late 2010 / mid 2011) ..
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Since these are harmless predictions...
Oil goes to 120 (sooner than Thomas expects) - this causes US (and World) economy to stall again with significant drops in the stock markets, possibly re-testing the March 2009 lows.
In Real Estate - the spread between buyers and sellers expectations continues to remain high. Sellers feeling that they should get more for their properties than buyers are willing to pay. Who cracks? I`m betting that the sellers `crack` and the real estate prices continue on a gradual down slope.
I don`t expect that the Canadian Real Estate market escapes this global real estate downturn with the minimal pain that has happened so far. So, overpriced markets - Vancouver, Calgary, Toronto will take a larger hit, but everyone will be affected.
And now to REALLY go out on a limb... Windsor rental market improves with dropping vacancy rates and increasing demand for property (no, I don`t own a US or Canadian made car...)
Yevgeni
Oil goes to 120 (sooner than Thomas expects) - this causes US (and World) economy to stall again with significant drops in the stock markets, possibly re-testing the March 2009 lows.
In Real Estate - the spread between buyers and sellers expectations continues to remain high. Sellers feeling that they should get more for their properties than buyers are willing to pay. Who cracks? I`m betting that the sellers `crack` and the real estate prices continue on a gradual down slope.
I don`t expect that the Canadian Real Estate market escapes this global real estate downturn with the minimal pain that has happened so far. So, overpriced markets - Vancouver, Calgary, Toronto will take a larger hit, but everyone will be affected.
And now to REALLY go out on a limb... Windsor rental market improves with dropping vacancy rates and increasing demand for property (no, I don`t own a US or Canadian made car...)
Yevgeni
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QUOTE (Yev @ Dec 29 2009, 12:29 AM) Since these are harmless predictions...
Oil goes to 120 (sooner than Thomas expects) - this causes US (and World) economy to stall again with significant drops in the stock markets, possibly re-testing the March 2009 lows.
In Real Estate - the spread between buyers and sellers expectations continues to remain high. Sellers feeling that they should get more for their properties than buyers are willing to pay. Who cracks? I`m betting that the sellers `crack` and the real estate prices continue on a gradual down slope.
I don`t expect that the Canadian Real Estate market escapes this global real estate downturn with the minimal pain that has happened so far. So, overpriced markets - Vancouver, Calgary, Toronto will take a larger hit, but everyone will be affected.
And now to REALLY go out on a limb... Windsor rental market improves with dropping vacancy rates and increasing demand for property (no, I don`t own a US or Canadian made car...)
Yevgeni
I`ll mostly predict my local conditions which I think I know best. The implementation of the HST here in Ontario coupled with rising interest rates will be felt in many ways.
Oil I don`t know much about but the strong loonie will hamper a manufacturing recovery here in Ontario. This will be tempered by the HST which is a handout for this industry.
In real estate, sellers, will take a hit unless they own a desirable residential property in one of Toronto`s sought after neighborhoods. These still trigger bidding wars. The new "%10 rule" will also greatly reduce the pool of first time buyers and also force down prices especially in markets like mine where things are not too upbeat already.
The flip side will be good for landlords with vacancies. As an LL with properties though for the first time in about 3 years I will see an improvement in the quality in perspective tenants. With low interest rates and low down payments already affordable SFH`s down here were depriving LL`s of good tenants, ie: with jobs, while operating costs costs rose. The clearly anti LL regulatory environment hasn`t helped either.
A ,lot of LL`s have been washed out of the business. With prices still low in the last few years around here a lot of first time LL`s bought high with %5 or less down then found the quantity and quality of tenants so lacking that they couldn`t meet expenses and had to sell. This was especially the case from Q3 2008 to Q2 around here. Vacancies have peaked at about %4 (offically) but will decline thanks to tighter bank lending and a crackdown on illegal rentals here in te last few months.
Not much for sale in the MF market now as LL`s still standing wait it out. Investors with cash to spend will definitely be able to get some good deals here in Niagara on SFH`s. The banks will often be the ones desperate to sell.
For the first time in years the future looks good in St. Catharines. Downtown is being gentrified by a new arts / theater center in the works and a new hospital is being built. We`re also getting government money for infrastructure which for decades has eluded us.
Beyond 2010 once Ontario gets rid of it`s current government there will be a much improved business climate in general and for LL`s in particular.
Oil goes to 120 (sooner than Thomas expects) - this causes US (and World) economy to stall again with significant drops in the stock markets, possibly re-testing the March 2009 lows.
In Real Estate - the spread between buyers and sellers expectations continues to remain high. Sellers feeling that they should get more for their properties than buyers are willing to pay. Who cracks? I`m betting that the sellers `crack` and the real estate prices continue on a gradual down slope.
I don`t expect that the Canadian Real Estate market escapes this global real estate downturn with the minimal pain that has happened so far. So, overpriced markets - Vancouver, Calgary, Toronto will take a larger hit, but everyone will be affected.
And now to REALLY go out on a limb... Windsor rental market improves with dropping vacancy rates and increasing demand for property (no, I don`t own a US or Canadian made car...)
Yevgeni
I`ll mostly predict my local conditions which I think I know best. The implementation of the HST here in Ontario coupled with rising interest rates will be felt in many ways.
Oil I don`t know much about but the strong loonie will hamper a manufacturing recovery here in Ontario. This will be tempered by the HST which is a handout for this industry.
In real estate, sellers, will take a hit unless they own a desirable residential property in one of Toronto`s sought after neighborhoods. These still trigger bidding wars. The new "%10 rule" will also greatly reduce the pool of first time buyers and also force down prices especially in markets like mine where things are not too upbeat already.
The flip side will be good for landlords with vacancies. As an LL with properties though for the first time in about 3 years I will see an improvement in the quality in perspective tenants. With low interest rates and low down payments already affordable SFH`s down here were depriving LL`s of good tenants, ie: with jobs, while operating costs costs rose. The clearly anti LL regulatory environment hasn`t helped either.
A ,lot of LL`s have been washed out of the business. With prices still low in the last few years around here a lot of first time LL`s bought high with %5 or less down then found the quantity and quality of tenants so lacking that they couldn`t meet expenses and had to sell. This was especially the case from Q3 2008 to Q2 around here. Vacancies have peaked at about %4 (offically) but will decline thanks to tighter bank lending and a crackdown on illegal rentals here in te last few months.
Not much for sale in the MF market now as LL`s still standing wait it out. Investors with cash to spend will definitely be able to get some good deals here in Niagara on SFH`s. The banks will often be the ones desperate to sell.
For the first time in years the future looks good in St. Catharines. Downtown is being gentrified by a new arts / theater center in the works and a new hospital is being built. We`re also getting government money for infrastructure which for decades has eluded us.
Beyond 2010 once Ontario gets rid of it`s current government there will be a much improved business climate in general and for LL`s in particular.
QUOTE (ThomasBeyer @ Dec 28 2009, 08:30 AM) quite the contrary .. due to increased WORLDWIDE economic activity and continued middle east violence (Isrel, Iran, Iraq, Yemen, Somali ..) prices will NOT go down to sub $50 .. but hover along an upwardly sloped line between $60 and $120 (in late 2010 / mid 2011) ..
Thomas are you a betting man? I can feel my greed glands swelling up
. I am no expert, but my predictions are influenced by a certain Oil and Gas analyst whose forecasts boast 90% accuracy in the past 20 years. I call him my "oil oracle". He actually did say the market will correct to about $50, but I have added the $10 factor for speculation. The "oracle" also said that Natural Gas will average $7 in 2010 and that the glut should have dissipated by mid year.
Thomas are you a betting man? I can feel my greed glands swelling up
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QUOTE (greg12 @ Dec 30 2009, 01:24 AM) Thomas are you a betting man? I can feel my greed glands swelling up
. I am no expert, but my predictions are influenced by a certain Oil and Gas analyst whose forecasts boast 90% accuracy in the past 20 years. I call him my "oil oracle". He actually did say the market will correct to about $50, but I have added the $10 factor for speculation. The "oracle" also said that Natural Gas will average $7 in 2010 and that the glut should have dissipated by mid year.
you mean Jeff Rubin ?
financial crisis in late 2008 to mid-2009 has destroyed / delayed much of the new supply .. thus rising oil/gas prices ..
you mean Jeff Rubin ?
financial crisis in late 2008 to mid-2009 has destroyed / delayed much of the new supply .. thus rising oil/gas prices ..
QUOTE (ThomasBeyer @ Dec 30 2009, 07:59 AM) you mean Jeff Rubin ?
finanicla crisis in late 2008 to mid-2009 has destroyed / delayed much of the new supply .. thus rising oil/gas prices ..
Jeff the $200 man?
I think his prediction will eventually come to pass 5-10-15-20-30 years down the road
. In the year 2007, my "oracle" was predicting the big bust of 2008 while most other analysts thought that oil prices would keep rsing.
finanicla crisis in late 2008 to mid-2009 has destroyed / delayed much of the new supply .. thus rising oil/gas prices ..
Jeff the $200 man?
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QUOTE (gwasser @ Dec 20 2009, 12:26 PM) Gentlemen this is becoming boring!
Witht he exception of Jim (Rickson9), we all seem to think more or less the same! How unlikely!
Are we thinking so similar because we are all great minds or are we sheep?
I guess I have to make a more outrageous forecast:
Refining my earlier forecast, I will state that after a modest first half of 2010, the American consumer will regain its former confidence because the world is obviously not coming to an end. They will, as always in the past, forget the hard lessons of 2008 quickly and start spending as if there is no day after tomorrow (cute he?). Even Europeans will become cocky and join the party. Everybody is sick of the pessimism and the party is on.
The stockmarket will start moving up more decisively and money from the sidelines will start pooring in. Stockmarket return for 2010 will be 15%.
Not only will the stock market improve but after a cold winter and a dramatic increase of consumer spending in the 2nd half of 2010 on top of growth in the BRIC countries, oil and gas prices will explode. Inflation will start to rear its - yet not so ugly head - and there is a hint on interest rate increases to come. Consumers, afraid of missing out on cheap mortgage rates will jump into the real estate market with a vengence and average sales prices year over year will jump to 10%. Housing is becoming now less affordable and rental vacancy, especially in Alberta will evaporate and rents increase by 7%
My recommendation: Buy now before the crowds wake up. Halleluiah!
This heading from today`s globe investor - isn`t that funny :
Economists see stronger reboundhttp://http://gold.globeinvestor.co...202/escenic_1453472/stocks/news/&back_url=yes
Group of 15 Canadian economists tell Finance Minister they see higher GDP, lower jobless rate than previously expected
Witht he exception of Jim (Rickson9), we all seem to think more or less the same! How unlikely!
Are we thinking so similar because we are all great minds or are we sheep?
I guess I have to make a more outrageous forecast:
Refining my earlier forecast, I will state that after a modest first half of 2010, the American consumer will regain its former confidence because the world is obviously not coming to an end. They will, as always in the past, forget the hard lessons of 2008 quickly and start spending as if there is no day after tomorrow (cute he?). Even Europeans will become cocky and join the party. Everybody is sick of the pessimism and the party is on.
The stockmarket will start moving up more decisively and money from the sidelines will start pooring in. Stockmarket return for 2010 will be 15%.
Not only will the stock market improve but after a cold winter and a dramatic increase of consumer spending in the 2nd half of 2010 on top of growth in the BRIC countries, oil and gas prices will explode. Inflation will start to rear its - yet not so ugly head - and there is a hint on interest rate increases to come. Consumers, afraid of missing out on cheap mortgage rates will jump into the real estate market with a vengence and average sales prices year over year will jump to 10%. Housing is becoming now less affordable and rental vacancy, especially in Alberta will evaporate and rents increase by 7%
My recommendation: Buy now before the crowds wake up. Halleluiah!
This heading from today`s globe investor - isn`t that funny :
Economists see stronger reboundhttp://http://gold.globeinvestor.co...202/escenic_1453472/stocks/news/&back_url=yes
Group of 15 Canadian economists tell Finance Minister they see higher GDP, lower jobless rate than previously expected
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QUOTE (greg12 @ Dec 30 2009, 09:53 AM) Jeff the $200 man?
I think his prediction will eventually come to pass 5-10.. years down the road
.
indeed .. indeed $200 in 5 years .. 10 TOPS !!
indeed .. indeed $200 in 5 years .. 10 TOPS !!
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My investments focuses mostly in the Edmonton and surrounding areas. My forecast for 2010 on the residential side is that values will remain fairly stable with a slight appreciation in Q2. Mostly because demand is typically higher during this time and there is a slight lag in new housing starts. I think partially this is due to the fact that builders and developers are reactive to the market and halted a lot of their production during 2009 as they were trying to sell off most of their inventory. I also think that the media will have a slight role in this as they have indicated that interest will increase later this year. Which will motivate some people who were sitting on the fence to buy.
I have also noticed that rents have came down a little (approx. 7-12%) since 2008/09 and I can`t see it going up anytime soon. I think this will primary effect the multi-family market as we`ll probably start seeing prices drop a little.
I have also noticed that rents have came down a little (approx. 7-12%) since 2008/09 and I can`t see it going up anytime soon. I think this will primary effect the multi-family market as we`ll probably start seeing prices drop a little.
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QUOTE (Luong98 @ Feb 4 2010, 12:20 AM) ..I think this will primary effect the multi-family market as we`ll probably start seeing prices drop a little.
MF prices (due to crazy, condo conversion induced frenzy) did drop 25-30% from 2007/2008 to 2009 or so in Edmonton from an average of 120/door to 90/door in 2009 .. I do not see it going lower in 2010 .. in fact see prices going UP again !
MF prices (due to crazy, condo conversion induced frenzy) did drop 25-30% from 2007/2008 to 2009 or so in Edmonton from an average of 120/door to 90/door in 2009 .. I do not see it going lower in 2010 .. in fact see prices going UP again !
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I am a realtor working in the Vancouver market and the Metro Vancouver market has some challenges in the short term, in my opinion.
Sales volume and prices in all residential products (attached and detached) has been exceptional. Depending on which price index and what type of product and area you are looking at, home prices are up between 15-30% over Jan last year. Used condo average prices grew $15,000 in the last 30 days. Multiple offers are rife on East and Westside. Even a former grow op being flipped for a very nice profit.
Admittedly most price and sales activity are in comparison with January of last year - a terrible month for our market where we had about 17 months of supply Downtown.
However, we are returning to the point where we were in May 2008, where buyers start to struggle with increasing price growth and start to pull back from the market. We`re not there yet but it`s coming.
I am also seeing more supply come to market as sellers look to market their homes during the Winter Olympics (starting next week). Other challenges are the possible moves by the Federal government to change mortgage lending rules. Some are speculating that down payment requirements might increase from 5-10%. If the latter happens, we could see a real impact on sales volume and prices.
External forces such as sovereign debt crises, in my mind, might trigger a rout in the global markets that might dent some people`s belief in the so-called recovery. Even the Bank of Canada says the recovery is mainly the result of domestic demand (that`s reliant on Fed stimulus) and housing activity.
While the overall economic indicators for the Province of BC currently look pretty good, it bears in mind the last boom and bust cycles (in BC) were led by housing and housing is a leading economic indicator. We have been through a small `bust` in 2008 (-15%) but another price and sales decline is not unlikely this year. The current pace is unsustainable-certainly in areas closest to Downtown.
I am predicting a large amount of supply coming to market in Quarter 1 and 2 and if demand ebbs at the same time, a double digit price decline before end of year doesn`t seem unlikely to me. After all we are now 9X median income to median household price-making us the most unaffordable city in the world, according to the Demographia report.
I may be wrong (and I hope I am) but based on what I am seeing now, this is what I feel is likely for the rest of the year.
Follow me on twitter if you want weekly updates on market trends and issues: www.twitter.com/dreamcityhomes
Sales volume and prices in all residential products (attached and detached) has been exceptional. Depending on which price index and what type of product and area you are looking at, home prices are up between 15-30% over Jan last year. Used condo average prices grew $15,000 in the last 30 days. Multiple offers are rife on East and Westside. Even a former grow op being flipped for a very nice profit.
Admittedly most price and sales activity are in comparison with January of last year - a terrible month for our market where we had about 17 months of supply Downtown.
However, we are returning to the point where we were in May 2008, where buyers start to struggle with increasing price growth and start to pull back from the market. We`re not there yet but it`s coming.
I am also seeing more supply come to market as sellers look to market their homes during the Winter Olympics (starting next week). Other challenges are the possible moves by the Federal government to change mortgage lending rules. Some are speculating that down payment requirements might increase from 5-10%. If the latter happens, we could see a real impact on sales volume and prices.
External forces such as sovereign debt crises, in my mind, might trigger a rout in the global markets that might dent some people`s belief in the so-called recovery. Even the Bank of Canada says the recovery is mainly the result of domestic demand (that`s reliant on Fed stimulus) and housing activity.
While the overall economic indicators for the Province of BC currently look pretty good, it bears in mind the last boom and bust cycles (in BC) were led by housing and housing is a leading economic indicator. We have been through a small `bust` in 2008 (-15%) but another price and sales decline is not unlikely this year. The current pace is unsustainable-certainly in areas closest to Downtown.
I am predicting a large amount of supply coming to market in Quarter 1 and 2 and if demand ebbs at the same time, a double digit price decline before end of year doesn`t seem unlikely to me. After all we are now 9X median income to median household price-making us the most unaffordable city in the world, according to the Demographia report.
I may be wrong (and I hope I am) but based on what I am seeing now, this is what I feel is likely for the rest of the year.
Follow me on twitter if you want weekly updates on market trends and issues: www.twitter.com/dreamcityhomes