December 2012 Canadian Economic Fundamentals

[Ally]

Canada's housing market: A victim of demographics




Demographic trends built up our housing market, and now they`re going to start pulling it apart.




Prepare yourselves, buyers and sellers. The years ahead for housing will look nothing like the last decade.






A report issued by Pacifica Partners Capital Management in B.C., describes the housing market as we know it today as a product of a wave of buying by baby boomers in their peak earning years. Now, as they start entering retirement, boomers aren`t buying houses any more and the younger generation isn`t large enough to pick up the slack.





Read the full article here.

 

[Ally]

Hiring to expand slightly in new year





Canadian employers expect modest hiring at the start of next year, though a cloudy economic outlook means many are more apt to hire on a temporary rather than permanent basis.




Employers are slightly more optimistic about adding to their head count, Manpower Inc.`s quarterly survey shows. Its seasonally adjusted net employment outlook, to be released Tuesday, rose to 13 per cent from the previous quarter`s 11 per cent.



Read the full article here.

 

[Ally]

U.S. housing climbs as Canada loses altitude




Housing activity in the United States is gearing up while Canada`s residential real estate market appears to be in for a soft landing, Bank of Nova Scotia economist Adrienne Warren says in a new research note.




While average prices in the U.S. are still about 30 per cent lower than their 2005 peak, the long road to recovery has begun. Real home prices in the third quarter were 5 per cent higher than a year ago, an acceleration from the 3-per-cent advance in the prior quarter, Ms. Warren noted.



Read the full article here.

 

[Ally]

Change is coming




Demand for apartments is set to increase dramatically by 2020; compensation in the apartment industry will continue to rise faster than the rate of inflation; hospitality companies may seek to acquire an apartment REIT or privately held multifamily company by 2020; and over 50 percent of today`s senior leadership will pass the baton by 2020.




These are some futuristic predictions from Chris Lee, president and CEO of Los Angeles-based CEL & Associates Inc., a leading real estate consulting firm. Lee has just completed a book, `Transformational Leadership in the New Age of Real Estate,` which is available through the Institute of Real Estate Management. The book lays out the future of real estate and explains the need for executives of the future to be visionary and supportive of individual entrepreneurship.





Read the full article here.

 

[Ally]

Household debt could spur higher mortgage rates






TORONTO - Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney, who has signaled for months that the central bank`s next interest rate move will be an increase, said on Tuesday he won`t rush through any policy decisions before he leaves in June to head the Bank of England.




After his first speech since his surprise appointment as BoE governor, Carney was asked if he would leave the nagging problem of soaring household debt for his successor to deal with.





Read the full article here.

 

[Ally]

Scotiabank says Canadian housing market appears to have achieved soft landing




TORONTO ` The Canadian housing market appears to have achieved `a soft landing` so far with sales cooler but still fairly steady along with prices, Scotiabank says.




Nationally, sales in October were down about 10 per cent from the spring, but only marginally below the average pace of the past decade, said the report Tuesday by Scotiabank economist Adrienne Warren.



Read the full article here.

 

[Ally]

Over 60% of Canadians worried U.S. fiscal cliff will hurt the Candian economy






TORONTO, Dec. 12, 2012 /CNW/ - According to a Sun Life/Ipsos Reid study released today, almost two-thirds of Canadians (63 per cent) are concerned that Canada's economy will be hurt by the impact of the U.S. fiscal cliff, an unprecedented predicament created by a package of tax increases and spending cuts that could be implemented in the U.S. in the new year.




The Annual Check-Up Survey, commissioned by Sun Life Financial, polled 1,277 respondents examining how Canadians feel about personal finances and the economy at the end of this year.




The survey also found that 54 per cent of Canadians are not better off financially than they were a year ago.





Read the full article here.

 

[Ally]

Fiscal cliff fallout would hit resources, BMO learns




A plunge by Washington over the so-called fiscal cliff would hit Canadian miners and energy companies particularly hard since a slowdown in the U.S. economy would also drag down prices for base metals and oil.




Paul Taylor, chief investment officer for fundamental equities at BMO Asset Management, said Wednesday it will be the cyclical sectors that will be most affected if U.S. lawmakers fail to reach a deal to avoid the automatic tax hikes and spending cuts set to kick in next year.




"We are very much dependent on energy and materials which represent, of course, nearly 50 per cent of the Canadian equity market by market cap," Taylor said.





Read the full article here.

 

[Ally]

Standard & Poor downgrades six Canadian banks




TORONTO - Standard & Poor`s has downgraded the ratings of six of Canada`s financial institutions by one notch.




The credit ratings agency cites a softening economy, low interest rates and pressure from the headwinds facing Canada`s economy.





Read the full article here.

 

[Ally]

Portion of condo apartments in rental market on the rise across Canada




Condominiums continue to have a major impact on the apartment market across the country as more and more people buy them as investments and rent them out, says a new report.




Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. released data Thursday for October 2012 which shows that in 10 of the 11 markets surveyed, the percentage of condos being rented out continued to rise, with as much of 30.4% of the stock in Calgary`s market now being used as rental apartments.





Read the full article here.

 

[Ally]

Canadian economy to pick up speed in 2013




OTTAWA - Canada's largest private sector bank is taking a relatively bullish stance on the prospects for the economy going forward.




The Royal Bank's latest quarterly outlook predicts growth will accelerate to 2.4 per cent next year and continue to expand to 2.8 per cent in 2014, following a year that saw the weakest growth since the recession and a virtual stall in the third quarter.




The forecast is slightly rosier than the Bank of Canada's call for 2.3 and 2.4 per cent growth in the two years, and even more at odds with the consensus forecast of 2.0 in 2013.





Read the full article here.

 

[Ally]

Every one of the ailments we imagine ourself to be suffering is a reality in the U.S.




It was perhaps the most shocking headline ever to appear in the Toronto Star. `Income gap isn`t growing,` it ran, citing a `TD bank report.` Sure enough, the report found that income inequality in Canada has remained more or less flat since the mid 1990s. As if that were not alarming enough, it found median household incomes in this country grew steadily over the same period, to the point where they now exceed those of the United States for the first time in nearly 30 years.




The paper was clearly flummoxed. The story managed to extract a confession from the economist who did the study that he too had been `surprised` by the results (an `absolute stunner`). How to explain it? `Part of the problem,` the story mused ` the `problem` being the failure of the data to show rising inequality ` `is the way income inequality is measured.` That is, the study looked at inequality of income. But what about inequality of wealth? That could be increasing, couldn`t it? By the time the story appeared online the paper had recovered its composure. `Canadian income gap may be more real than data suggests,` the headline now read.





Read the full article here.

 

[Ally]

Full speed ahead for Canadian economy in 2013




OTTAWA ` Canada`s largest private sector bank is taking a relatively bullish stance on the prospects for the economy going forward.




The Royal Bank`s latest quarterly outlook predicts growth will accelerate to 2.4% next year and continue to expand to 2.8% in 2014, following a year that saw the weakest growth since the recession and a virtual stall in the third quarter.





Read the full article here.

 

[Ally]

Canada in 2013: It's all about the oil



This is the fifth in a series of entries looking at what we can expect in 2013. Each weekday, a guest analyst will look at the key challenges facing a selected country ` and what next year might hold in store.




By Jonathan Kay, Special to CNN






Editor`s note: Jonathan Kay is the Managing Editor for Comment at Canada`s National Post newspaper and a fellow at the Washington, D.C.-based Foundation for Defense of Democracies. Follow him @jonkay. The views expressed are his own.





Read the full article here.

 

[Ally]

Yellowknife's vacancy rate rises




The latest numbers from the Canadian Mortage and Housing Commission show the vacancy rate for rental housing in Yellowknife has gone up over the past year.




In October 2012, 3.6 per cent of units were empty, compared to 1.5 per cent in October 2011.






Paige Saunders, who is a landlord and co-owner of a property development company, said he`s not having trouble renting rooms.





Read the full article here.

 

[Ally]

Pipeline expansion should be a 'national priority': TD Economics




Pipeline expansion must be a national priority for Canada to ensure economic growth in the coming years, TD Economics said in a new report issued Monday.




The benefits of a robust oil sector would flow from the western provinces to the country as a whole as growth in the industry creates jobs and generates tax revenues.




However, that growth is at risk if Canada can`t open up new markets for its growing oil production.





Read the full article here. And read the full report here.

 

[Ally]

Rental apartment vacancies up




Rental accommodation became a little easier to find in Canada this year as more apartment buildings came on the market and young adults faced a tough job climate, leading to less demand for rental housing.




The average apartment vacancy rate in 35 major urban markets was 2.6 per cent in October, up from 2.2 per cent a year earlier, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. said Thursday.





Read the full article here.

 

[Ally]

Property sales drop, but prices stay steady



House sales may be plunging in many Canadian cities, but prices are still holding up as sellers retreat rather than opt for less.





Observers expect to learn that national sales dropped by about 12 per cent in November from a year earlier, when the Canadian Real Estate Association releases its monthly report, expected Monday.




Read the full article here.

 

[Ally]

RBC's November Housing Analysis



Home resales in Canada fell 1.7% from October to November (on a seasonally adjusted basis).





` Relative to November 2011, resales were down 11.9% (on an unadjusted basis).





` Among Canada`s largest markets, Toronto registered the biggest monthly decline (-4.4%), followed by Vancouver (-2.9%), Montreal (-2.3%) and Calgary (-1.4%). Resales in Ottawa (+0.6%) and Edmonton (+0.1%) rose marginally in the month.





Read the full article here.

 

[Ally]

Canadian home sales decline 12% over past year




About 12 per cent fewer Canadian houses were sold in November compared to the same month a year ago, and prices were off by just under one per cent, according to figures released today.




The Canadian Real Estate Association said sales were lower in three-quarters of all local housing markets, including most large Canadian cities. Calgary was the exception to that trend, with a 10.6 per cent annual increase in sales activity.




"National sales activity lacks the momentum





Read the full article here.