December 2012 Canadian Economic Fundamentals

[Ally]

Shaky foundations: How Ottawa's computers get Canadian house prices wrong




When Dennis Gilmore gathered financial analysts and investors on a conference call last summer, the head of California-based First American Financial Corp. had some troubling news. It was what he referred to bluntly as `the situation` up in Canada.




The Los Angeles-area insurance company was losing tens of millions of dollars due to hidden problems in the Canadian housing market, and there were no assurances that the bleeding was going to stop.





Read the full article here.

 

[Ally]

Fear of U.S. fiscal crisis overblown, critics say




America going over the fiscal cliff in January will likely be more of a bumpy toboggan slide for Canadians.




The prospects that U.S. lawmakers won't be able to find the goodwill to arrive at a compromise to prevent a $670-billion economic shock in 2013 dimmed considerably Friday after a vote failed and the House of Representatives headed home for the holidays.




The smart money bet that Republicans, despite their humbling loss in the November elections, couldn't bring themselves to swallow even the mildest tax hike needed to arrive at a deal with the Democrats.





Read the full article here.

 

[Ally]

Oilsands driving non-OPEC growth




Non-OPEC crude production is set to outpace OPEC output over the next decade, driven by higher Canadian oil sands and American shale oil production, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). While Canadian output is set to rise well past 2020, American and other non-OPEC producers will plateau or start declining. After growing slowly in the next eight years, OPEC production is forecast to power ahead over the next few decades until 2035, to retain its influence as the world`s largest supply block in global markets, says the IEA.





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[Ally]

ATB Financial's senior economist displays his poetic talent





ATB Financial`s senior economist Todd Hirsch has always shown a knack for delivering his economic analysis in entertaining, easily digestible form. Today, he shows his poetic flair.







Read the full article here.

 

[Ally]

Feds OK another $50 billion of mortgage guarantees for private-sector players




Ottawa has increased by $50-billion the amount of residential mortgages that it is willing to guarantee.




But this time the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp., the biggest provider of mortgage default insurance, is not getting any. Instead, the additional backing is going only to private-sector players such as Genworth Canada, who will see their maximum raised to $300-billion from $250-billion.





Read the full article here.

 

[Ally]

Promised Land reignites fracking war starring celebrities, billionaires, and banjos



Not so long ago, fracking was a technical term little known beyond the energy industry. Now it`s coming to Hollywood, as the fierce battle between environmentalists and oil firms is played out in several forthcoming films.





Hydraulic fracturing, the controversial drilling technique also known as fracking, has lifted U.S. energy output dramatically, despite warnings from critics who fear it pollutes water deep underground.





Read the full article here.

 

[Ally]

Five property trends that shaped 2012







Innovative, eye-catching projects in the categories of infrastructure, institutional and commercial real estate






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[Ally]

The winds of financial change: What to expect in 2013





The coming year will bring some pretty important changes to the Canadian financial ecosystem. Every Canadian should be aware of the following five shifts that will impact both the national and household economies.







House Prices

So the bubble may not be popping but the housing market is definitely slowing down. The Canadian Real Estate Association recently released its latest sales numbers that show a 1.4 per cent decline in home sales for late 2012. One factor may be recent tinkering in the mortgage market such as shortening amortization periods. This trend is particularly important because many people -- particularly young families and young professionals -- have tied their financial ships to their houses. If homes aren't moving, this impacts their value and creates a buyer's market. For families hoping to cash in on a hot market -- whether by selling or tapping into their equity -- 2013 may not be the time.







Read the full article here.

 

[Ally]

Dear first-time homebuyer: Ottawa wants you to tread carefully




Your government is increasingly worried about you getting into the housing market, if you haven`t figured it out by now.




Ottawa has made it harder for you to get credit and is trying to limit how much debt you can take on. Has the message sunk in yet? The real estate industry says yes, and points to a dramatic drop in sales over the past few months as proof new mortgage regulations have stifled the market.




The lesson for consumers is to tread slowly.





Read the full article here.

 

[Ally]

Canadian job creation seen sharply lower in December






OTTAWA (Reuters) - Canada's job market is expected to slow markedly in December to reflect the sluggish economy and employers' fears about the U.S. fiscal crisis following outsized gains of over 50,000 jobs in two of the previous three months.





The median forecast in a Reuters poll is for the economy to add just 5,000 jobs in the month, with forecasts ranging from a loss of 20,000 positions to a gain of 21,000.





The forecast compares with employment growth of 59,600 in November, 1,800 in October and 52,100 in September.





Read the full article here.

 

[Ally]

How the world will weigh on Canada's economy in 2013




It was a bumpy year for the Canadian economy, as concern over European debt and the U.S. `fiscal cliff` cast a shadow over growth. Canada`s economy hit a soft patch in the second half of the year, and see-sawing trends in job creation weren`t enough to budge the unemployment rate much. So what will 2013 bring? Here are two economists ` an optimist and a pessimist ` on what the coming year heralds for Canada.



Read the full article here.

 

[Ally]

December's slow national job growth points to weak gains in 2013




After a flood of new hires in November, December`s national employment numbers are expected to show only a small increase, weighed down by declines in the service sector.




A month ago, the Canadian mood was different. Despite lacklustre economic growth, November beat forecasts with 59,300 new positions created, with the national unemployment rate dipping to 7.2 per cent.



Read the full article here.