December 2010 U.S. Economic Fundamentals
- Thread starter Ally
- Start date
- Joined
- Mar 24, 2009
- Messages
- 16,743
Be careful when buying U.S. property, experts say
The Canadian dollar is virtually at par. And there`s that gloomy weather outside. That can only mean that Canadians are thinking Florida.
Experts say consumers should be even more careful than normal when purchasing down south. Buying a home in the United States just got a little riskier, after all 50 states launched an investigation into the mortgage industry this fall.
The U.S. government is looking at whether banks used possibly fraudulent paperwork to get homeowners out of foreclosed homes.
This has caused deals on foreclosed homes to stall in areas such as Arizona and Florida, where nearly half the deals done there are foreclosures.
Investigators are looking at whether banks used robotic signers to sign hundreds of affidavits a day without reviewing them properly.
"This will help foreclosed households stay in their homes rent-free for longer, but watch sales activity dry up in coming months since it was foreclosed sales that were really impacting the turnover in recent months" said economist David Rosenberg of Gluskin + Sheff & Associates.
Read the full article here.
The Canadian dollar is virtually at par. And there`s that gloomy weather outside. That can only mean that Canadians are thinking Florida.
Experts say consumers should be even more careful than normal when purchasing down south. Buying a home in the United States just got a little riskier, after all 50 states launched an investigation into the mortgage industry this fall.
The U.S. government is looking at whether banks used possibly fraudulent paperwork to get homeowners out of foreclosed homes.
This has caused deals on foreclosed homes to stall in areas such as Arizona and Florida, where nearly half the deals done there are foreclosures.
Investigators are looking at whether banks used robotic signers to sign hundreds of affidavits a day without reviewing them properly.
"This will help foreclosed households stay in their homes rent-free for longer, but watch sales activity dry up in coming months since it was foreclosed sales that were really impacting the turnover in recent months" said economist David Rosenberg of Gluskin + Sheff & Associates.
Read the full article here.
- Joined
- Mar 24, 2009
- Messages
- 16,743
U.S. sluggish recovery continues: Fed
WASHINGTON - The U.S. economy continued its slow recovery in recent weeks, the Federal Reserve said on Wednesday, with pockets of strength in manufacturing offset by "depressed" housing markets and employers still reluctant to hire in significant numbers.
The U.S. central bank`s Beige Book showed more anecdotal evidence that the economy remains unable to break into a faster expansion needed to generate sufficient job growth. The report appeared unlikely to derail the Fed`s latest efforts to push down borrowing costs by boosting its purchases of Treasury debt.
"Reports from the twelve Federal Reserve Districts indicate that the economy continued to improve, on balance, during the reporting period from early/mid-October to mid-November," the Fed said in the report, which was released ahead of its next policy meeting on Dec. 15.
The Fed said economic activity in the Boston, Cleveland, Atlanta, Dallas and San Francisco districts increased at a "slight to modest" pace, while the New York
Read the full article here.
WASHINGTON - The U.S. economy continued its slow recovery in recent weeks, the Federal Reserve said on Wednesday, with pockets of strength in manufacturing offset by "depressed" housing markets and employers still reluctant to hire in significant numbers.
The U.S. central bank`s Beige Book showed more anecdotal evidence that the economy remains unable to break into a faster expansion needed to generate sufficient job growth. The report appeared unlikely to derail the Fed`s latest efforts to push down borrowing costs by boosting its purchases of Treasury debt.
"Reports from the twelve Federal Reserve Districts indicate that the economy continued to improve, on balance, during the reporting period from early/mid-October to mid-November," the Fed said in the report, which was released ahead of its next policy meeting on Dec. 15.
The Fed said economic activity in the Boston, Cleveland, Atlanta, Dallas and San Francisco districts increased at a "slight to modest" pace, while the New York
Read the full article here.
- Joined
- Mar 24, 2009
- Messages
- 16,743
The AWFUL details behind the U.S. jobs miss
This morning`s jobs report was an awful and unexpected miss.
The details don`t look any better, with many of the key charts on U.S. unemployment now back to the lows of the past few years.
The breakdown by industries hardest hit in this recession is no more comforting.
Read the full article here.
This morning`s jobs report was an awful and unexpected miss.
The details don`t look any better, with many of the key charts on U.S. unemployment now back to the lows of the past few years.
The breakdown by industries hardest hit in this recession is no more comforting.
Read the full article here.
- Joined
- Mar 24, 2009
- Messages
- 16,743
The scariest thing Ben Bernake said last night
Most of what Ben Bernanke said on 60 Minutes last night was not that newsworthy.
That he`s open to more bond buying beyond the original $600 billion isn`t actually that remarkable.
His policy suggestions (simplifying the tax code, etc.) were interesting, but, you know, not earth shattering.
The worst part was when Ben Bernanke was asked how confident he was that he could stave off inflation when and if it came to that.
Bernanke`s answer was that he was 100% certain he could.
Read the full article here.
Most of what Ben Bernanke said on 60 Minutes last night was not that newsworthy.
That he`s open to more bond buying beyond the original $600 billion isn`t actually that remarkable.
His policy suggestions (simplifying the tax code, etc.) were interesting, but, you know, not earth shattering.
The worst part was when Ben Bernanke was asked how confident he was that he could stave off inflation when and if it came to that.
Bernanke`s answer was that he was 100% certain he could.
Read the full article here.
- Joined
- Mar 24, 2009
- Messages
- 16,743
Bernake says U.S. economy on edge; more buying possible
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said the economy is barely expanding at a sustainable pace and that it`s possible the Fed may expand bond purchases beyond the US$600 billion announced last month to spur growth.
"We`re not very far from the level where the economy is not self-sustaining," Bernanke said in an interview broadcast yesterday by CBS Corp.`s "60 Minutes" program. "It`s very close to the border. It takes about 2.5% growth just to keep unemployment stable and that`s about what we`re getting."
Bernanke, in a rare appearance on a nationally broadcast news program, defended the Fed`s efforts to prop up a recovery so weak that only 39,000 jobs were created in November. The unemployment rate last month rose to 9.8%, the highest level since April, the Labor Department said on Dec. 3, three days after the Bernanke interview was taped. Republican lawmakers have said the Fed`s policy of "quantitative easing" may do little to help unemployment and may fuel inflation.
"At the rate we`re going, it could be four, five years before we are back to a more normal unemployment rate" of about 5% to 6%, Bernanke said. The purchase of more bonds than planned is "certainly possible," said Bernanke, 56. "It depends on the efficacy of the program" and the outlook for inflation and the economy.
Read the full article here.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said the economy is barely expanding at a sustainable pace and that it`s possible the Fed may expand bond purchases beyond the US$600 billion announced last month to spur growth.
"We`re not very far from the level where the economy is not self-sustaining," Bernanke said in an interview broadcast yesterday by CBS Corp.`s "60 Minutes" program. "It`s very close to the border. It takes about 2.5% growth just to keep unemployment stable and that`s about what we`re getting."
Bernanke, in a rare appearance on a nationally broadcast news program, defended the Fed`s efforts to prop up a recovery so weak that only 39,000 jobs were created in November. The unemployment rate last month rose to 9.8%, the highest level since April, the Labor Department said on Dec. 3, three days after the Bernanke interview was taped. Republican lawmakers have said the Fed`s policy of "quantitative easing" may do little to help unemployment and may fuel inflation.
"At the rate we`re going, it could be four, five years before we are back to a more normal unemployment rate" of about 5% to 6%, Bernanke said. The purchase of more bonds than planned is "certainly possible," said Bernanke, 56. "It depends on the efficacy of the program" and the outlook for inflation and the economy.
Read the full article here.
- Joined
- Mar 24, 2009
- Messages
- 16,743
Regional Spotlight: Southeast
With Florida and Georgia experiencing major shifts in the real estate sector, developers, designers, and financiers are adapting to the new economic landscape and targeting niche markets, as well as exploring untapped ones, while remaining optimistic about the region`s future prospects.
While the real estate industry in Florida and Georgia has slowed compared with the torrid pace of several years ago, long-term economic growth and demographic trends continue to favor the two states, and that means development is expected to pick up when demand increases.
"Economists are forecasting that Florida will be the third-most-populated state in the country," says Brad Horner, president of Atlanta-based Coldwell Banker NRT Development Advisors, a residential real estate brokerage company with a regional office in Orlando. "Florida is still a favored retirement destination. As the baby boomer generation starts to retire, Florida is the optimal destination. We also are seeing the return of foreign investors at several Orlando condominium communities, including Madison and Mosaic at Millenia. International investors, who are cash buyers, are looking for sound investments. They are interested in a destination city such as Orlando, which has numerous theme parks and vast shopping options, but is only an hour away from the beach."
The new Northwest Florida Beaches International Airport, located in West Bay near Panama City and Panama City Beach, is expected to be a significant economic catalyst for the region. Since it opened in May with service provided by Delta and Southwest, passenger traffic has increased by 192 percent from levels at the former regional airport in Panama City. The airport covers 1,300 acres (530 ha) of 4,000 acres (1,620 ha) donated to the airport by the St. Joe Company, which is developing VentureCrossings Enterprise Centre adjacent to the airport. That project has more than 1,000 acres (400 ha) of land available in Phase I for up to 4.4 million square feet (372,000 sq m) of commercial, industrial, and retail space. With seven military bases within 90 miles (145 km) and more than 1,900 aerospace companies, the region offers companies a well-trained workforce for the aerospace and defense industries, among others.
Read the full article here.
With Florida and Georgia experiencing major shifts in the real estate sector, developers, designers, and financiers are adapting to the new economic landscape and targeting niche markets, as well as exploring untapped ones, while remaining optimistic about the region`s future prospects.
While the real estate industry in Florida and Georgia has slowed compared with the torrid pace of several years ago, long-term economic growth and demographic trends continue to favor the two states, and that means development is expected to pick up when demand increases.
"Economists are forecasting that Florida will be the third-most-populated state in the country," says Brad Horner, president of Atlanta-based Coldwell Banker NRT Development Advisors, a residential real estate brokerage company with a regional office in Orlando. "Florida is still a favored retirement destination. As the baby boomer generation starts to retire, Florida is the optimal destination. We also are seeing the return of foreign investors at several Orlando condominium communities, including Madison and Mosaic at Millenia. International investors, who are cash buyers, are looking for sound investments. They are interested in a destination city such as Orlando, which has numerous theme parks and vast shopping options, but is only an hour away from the beach."
The new Northwest Florida Beaches International Airport, located in West Bay near Panama City and Panama City Beach, is expected to be a significant economic catalyst for the region. Since it opened in May with service provided by Delta and Southwest, passenger traffic has increased by 192 percent from levels at the former regional airport in Panama City. The airport covers 1,300 acres (530 ha) of 4,000 acres (1,620 ha) donated to the airport by the St. Joe Company, which is developing VentureCrossings Enterprise Centre adjacent to the airport. That project has more than 1,000 acres (400 ha) of land available in Phase I for up to 4.4 million square feet (372,000 sq m) of commercial, industrial, and retail space. With seven military bases within 90 miles (145 km) and more than 1,900 aerospace companies, the region offers companies a well-trained workforce for the aerospace and defense industries, among others.
Read the full article here.
- Joined
- Mar 24, 2009
- Messages
- 16,743
No relief in sight for U.S. housing
The U.S. housing market will remain depressed, with record high foreclosure levels, rising mortgage rates and a glut of distressed properties dampening the market for years to come, industry experts predicted on Tuesday.
“We don’t see a full market recovery until 2014,” said Rick Sharga of RealtyTrac, a foreclosure marketplace and tracking service. He said that he expected more than three million homeowners to receive foreclosure notices in 2010, with more than one million homes being seized by banks before the end of the year.
Both of those numbers are records and expected to go even higher, as $300-billion (U.S.) in adjustable rate loans reset and foreclosures that had been held up by the robo-signing scandal work through the process. That should make the first quarter of 2011 even uglier than the fourth quarter of 2010, he said.
There have been allegations banks used so-called robo-signers to sign hundreds of foreclosure documents a day without proper legal review.
Read the full article here.
The U.S. housing market will remain depressed, with record high foreclosure levels, rising mortgage rates and a glut of distressed properties dampening the market for years to come, industry experts predicted on Tuesday.
“We don’t see a full market recovery until 2014,” said Rick Sharga of RealtyTrac, a foreclosure marketplace and tracking service. He said that he expected more than three million homeowners to receive foreclosure notices in 2010, with more than one million homes being seized by banks before the end of the year.
Both of those numbers are records and expected to go even higher, as $300-billion (U.S.) in adjustable rate loans reset and foreclosures that had been held up by the robo-signing scandal work through the process. That should make the first quarter of 2011 even uglier than the fourth quarter of 2010, he said.
There have been allegations banks used so-called robo-signers to sign hundreds of foreclosure documents a day without proper legal review.
Read the full article here.
- Joined
- Mar 24, 2009
- Messages
- 16,743
U.S. fiscal health worse than EU`s: China
The U.S. dollar will be a safe investment for the next six to 12 months because global markets are focused on the euro zone`s troubles but America`s fiscal health is worse than Europe`s, an adviser to the Chinese central bank said on Wednesday.
Li Daokui, an academic member of the central bank`s monetary policy committee, said that U.S. bond prices and the dollar would fall when the European economic situation stabilized.
"For now, market attention is still on Europe and for the coming 6-12 months, it will not shift to the United States," Mr. Li said, when asked about U.S. President Barack Obama`s plan to extend tax cuts for all Americans.
"But we should be clear in our minds that the fiscal situation in the United States is much worse than in Europe. In one or two years, when the European debt situation stabilizes, attention of financial markets will definitely shift to the United States. At that time, U.S. Treasury bonds and the dollar will experience considerable declines."
Read the full article here.
The U.S. dollar will be a safe investment for the next six to 12 months because global markets are focused on the euro zone`s troubles but America`s fiscal health is worse than Europe`s, an adviser to the Chinese central bank said on Wednesday.
Li Daokui, an academic member of the central bank`s monetary policy committee, said that U.S. bond prices and the dollar would fall when the European economic situation stabilized.
"For now, market attention is still on Europe and for the coming 6-12 months, it will not shift to the United States," Mr. Li said, when asked about U.S. President Barack Obama`s plan to extend tax cuts for all Americans.
"But we should be clear in our minds that the fiscal situation in the United States is much worse than in Europe. In one or two years, when the European debt situation stabilizes, attention of financial markets will definitely shift to the United States. At that time, U.S. Treasury bonds and the dollar will experience considerable declines."
Read the full article here.
- Joined
- Mar 24, 2009
- Messages
- 16,743
America in worse shape than Europe: China advisor
BEIJING — The U.S. dollar will be a safe investment for the next six to 12 months because global markets are focused on the eurozone`s troubles, but America`s fiscal health is worse than Europe`s, an advisor to the Chinese central bank said on Wednesday.
Li Daokui, an academic member of the central bank`s monetary policy committee, said that U.S. bond prices and the dollar would fall when the European economic situation stabilised.
"For now, market attention is still on Europe and for the coming 6-12 months, it will not shift to the United States," Li said, when asked about U.S. President Barack Obama`s plan to extend tax cuts for all Americans.
"But we should be clear in our minds that the fiscal situation in the United States is much worse than in Europe. In one or two years, when the European debt situation stabilises, attention of financial markets will definitely shift to the United States. At that time, U.S. Treasury bonds and the dollar will experience considerable declines."
U.S. Treasury prices fell sharply for a second day on Wednesday as the proposed tax deal sparked concerns over the government`s ability to service its massive debt burden. Moody`s Investors Service said it is worried the tax cuts could become permanent, hurting U.S. finances and credit ratings in the long run.
Read the full article here.
BEIJING — The U.S. dollar will be a safe investment for the next six to 12 months because global markets are focused on the eurozone`s troubles, but America`s fiscal health is worse than Europe`s, an advisor to the Chinese central bank said on Wednesday.
Li Daokui, an academic member of the central bank`s monetary policy committee, said that U.S. bond prices and the dollar would fall when the European economic situation stabilised.
"For now, market attention is still on Europe and for the coming 6-12 months, it will not shift to the United States," Li said, when asked about U.S. President Barack Obama`s plan to extend tax cuts for all Americans.
"But we should be clear in our minds that the fiscal situation in the United States is much worse than in Europe. In one or two years, when the European debt situation stabilises, attention of financial markets will definitely shift to the United States. At that time, U.S. Treasury bonds and the dollar will experience considerable declines."
U.S. Treasury prices fell sharply for a second day on Wednesday as the proposed tax deal sparked concerns over the government`s ability to service its massive debt burden. Moody`s Investors Service said it is worried the tax cuts could become permanent, hurting U.S. finances and credit ratings in the long run.
Read the full article here.
- Joined
- Mar 24, 2009
- Messages
- 16,743
U.S. housing market to stay depressed
The housing market in the United States will remain depressed, with record high foreclosure levels, rising mortgage rates and a glut of distressed properties dampening the market for years to come, industry experts predicted on Tuesday.
"We don`t see a full market recovery until 2014," said Rick Sharga of RealtyTrac, a foreclosure marketplace and tracking service. He said that he expected more than three million homeowners to receive foreclosure notices in 2010, with more than one million homes being seized by banks before the end of the year.
Both of those numbers are records and expected to go even higher, as US$300-billion in adjustable-rate loans reset and foreclosures that had been held up by the robosigning scandal work through the process. That should make the first quarter of 2011 even uglier than the fourth quarter of 2010, he said.
There have been allegations banks used so-called robosigners to sign hundreds of foreclosure documents a day without proper legal review.
Read the full article here.
The housing market in the United States will remain depressed, with record high foreclosure levels, rising mortgage rates and a glut of distressed properties dampening the market for years to come, industry experts predicted on Tuesday.
"We don`t see a full market recovery until 2014," said Rick Sharga of RealtyTrac, a foreclosure marketplace and tracking service. He said that he expected more than three million homeowners to receive foreclosure notices in 2010, with more than one million homes being seized by banks before the end of the year.
Both of those numbers are records and expected to go even higher, as US$300-billion in adjustable-rate loans reset and foreclosures that had been held up by the robosigning scandal work through the process. That should make the first quarter of 2011 even uglier than the fourth quarter of 2010, he said.
There have been allegations banks used so-called robosigners to sign hundreds of foreclosure documents a day without proper legal review.
Read the full article here.
- Joined
- Mar 24, 2009
- Messages
- 16,743
Flaherty welcomes U.S. tax cut deal
A deal to extend U.S. tax cuts should be positive for Canada, though the stimulative effect of cuts for the highest earners is "questionable," Canadian Finance Minister Jim Flaherty said Friday.
"I believe tax reductions create stimulus but the higher one goes up the income ladder, the less stimulative it is," Mr. Flaherty told Reuters Insider.
U.S. President Barack Obama and congressional Republicans struck a deal this week that would extend Bush-era tax cuts for all earners for two more years.
Mr. Flaherty, who spearheaded opposition among Group of 20 leaders this year to a proposed global bank tax, did say lower U.S. taxes would help Canada`s economy.
"We realize our economy won`t have substantial recovery without recovery in the United States," he said.
Read the full article here.
A deal to extend U.S. tax cuts should be positive for Canada, though the stimulative effect of cuts for the highest earners is "questionable," Canadian Finance Minister Jim Flaherty said Friday.
"I believe tax reductions create stimulus but the higher one goes up the income ladder, the less stimulative it is," Mr. Flaherty told Reuters Insider.
U.S. President Barack Obama and congressional Republicans struck a deal this week that would extend Bush-era tax cuts for all earners for two more years.
Mr. Flaherty, who spearheaded opposition among Group of 20 leaders this year to a proposed global bank tax, did say lower U.S. taxes would help Canada`s economy.
"We realize our economy won`t have substantial recovery without recovery in the United States," he said.
Read the full article here.
- Joined
- Mar 24, 2009
- Messages
- 16,743
Deficits and debt as far as the eye can see
The $3.85 trillion package of spending cuts and tax increases unveiled on Dec. 1 by the leaders of President Barack Obama`s deficit-reduction commission is going nowhere legislatively anytime soon. First, 14 out of the 18 panel members must sign off on the proposal, and the prospects of winning that kind of supermajority by a Dec. 3 deadline seemed unlikely as Bloomberg Businessweek went to press. Even if that hurdle were somehow passed, the plan would then face a vote in Congress, which shows little appetite for tough choices.
Despite such odds, the report`s co-authors, Erskine M. Bowles, former President Bill Clinton`s chief of staff, and Alan K. Simpson, a former Republican senator from Wyoming, declared a symbolic victory for focusing attention on the policy choices facing lawmakers if they are serious about making a dent in the $13.7 trillion national debt. Less talked about is that no matter how aggressive the deficit-reduction plan (assuming one surfaces in the next couple of years), the U.S. will face a multidecade effort to get its finances in shape.
The Bowles-Simpson proposal wouldn`t wipe out the annual deficit for 25 years. Representative Paul Ryan, a Wisconsin Republican who`s in line to chair the House Budget Committee in January and who served on the panel, has his own budget road map that takes a half-century to get to a balanced budget. A separate panel led by former Congressional Budget Office chief Alice M. Rivlin that offered its own scheme last month wouldn`t even project a date.
Read the full article here.
The $3.85 trillion package of spending cuts and tax increases unveiled on Dec. 1 by the leaders of President Barack Obama`s deficit-reduction commission is going nowhere legislatively anytime soon. First, 14 out of the 18 panel members must sign off on the proposal, and the prospects of winning that kind of supermajority by a Dec. 3 deadline seemed unlikely as Bloomberg Businessweek went to press. Even if that hurdle were somehow passed, the plan would then face a vote in Congress, which shows little appetite for tough choices.
Despite such odds, the report`s co-authors, Erskine M. Bowles, former President Bill Clinton`s chief of staff, and Alan K. Simpson, a former Republican senator from Wyoming, declared a symbolic victory for focusing attention on the policy choices facing lawmakers if they are serious about making a dent in the $13.7 trillion national debt. Less talked about is that no matter how aggressive the deficit-reduction plan (assuming one surfaces in the next couple of years), the U.S. will face a multidecade effort to get its finances in shape.
The Bowles-Simpson proposal wouldn`t wipe out the annual deficit for 25 years. Representative Paul Ryan, a Wisconsin Republican who`s in line to chair the House Budget Committee in January and who served on the panel, has his own budget road map that takes a half-century to get to a balanced budget. A separate panel led by former Congressional Budget Office chief Alice M. Rivlin that offered its own scheme last month wouldn`t even project a date.
Read the full article here.
- Joined
- Mar 24, 2009
- Messages
- 16,743
Mounting Debts by States Stoke Fears of Crisis
The State of Illinois is still paying off billions in bills that it got from schools and social service providers last year. Arizona recently stopped paying for certain organ transplants for people in its Medicaid program. States are releasing prisoners early, more to cut expenses than to reward good behavior. And in Newark, the city laid off 13 percent of its police officers last week.
While next year could be even worse, there are bigger, longer-term risks, financial analysts say. Their fear is that even when the economy recovers, the shortfalls will not disappear, because many state and local governments have so much debt — several trillion dollars` worth, with much of it off the books and largely hidden from view — that it could overwhelm them in the next few years.
"It seems to me that crying wolf is probably a good thing to do at this point," said Felix Rohatyn, the financier who helped save New York City from bankruptcy in the 1970s.
Some of the same people who warned of the looming subprime crisis two years ago are ringing alarm bells again. Their message: Not just small towns or dying Rust Belt cities, but also large states like Illinois and California are increasingly at risk.
Municipal bankruptcies or defaults have been extremely rare — no state has defaulted since the Great Depression, and only a handful of cities have declared bankruptcy or are considering doing so.
Read the full article here.
The State of Illinois is still paying off billions in bills that it got from schools and social service providers last year. Arizona recently stopped paying for certain organ transplants for people in its Medicaid program. States are releasing prisoners early, more to cut expenses than to reward good behavior. And in Newark, the city laid off 13 percent of its police officers last week.
While next year could be even worse, there are bigger, longer-term risks, financial analysts say. Their fear is that even when the economy recovers, the shortfalls will not disappear, because many state and local governments have so much debt — several trillion dollars` worth, with much of it off the books and largely hidden from view — that it could overwhelm them in the next few years.
"It seems to me that crying wolf is probably a good thing to do at this point," said Felix Rohatyn, the financier who helped save New York City from bankruptcy in the 1970s.
Some of the same people who warned of the looming subprime crisis two years ago are ringing alarm bells again. Their message: Not just small towns or dying Rust Belt cities, but also large states like Illinois and California are increasingly at risk.
Municipal bankruptcies or defaults have been extremely rare — no state has defaulted since the Great Depression, and only a handful of cities have declared bankruptcy or are considering doing so.
Read the full article here.
- Joined
- Mar 24, 2009
- Messages
- 16,743
Is now the time to call the bottom on the worst housing market in America?
The worst housing market in America is Las Vegas, which has continued to plummet in recent readings, with little sign of letting up.
But eventually it will hit bottom, and that could be right now.
Two things to consider:
First, gaming revenues are clearly rebounding. Nevada gaming revenues grew an impressive 11% in October, the third straight monthly increase. On the strip, revenue rebounded by an even more impressive 16%.
Second, this chart which we ran last month shows a pretty nice correlation between hospitality jobs and Nevada home prices (as measured by the Case-Shiller). Now Case-Shiller is pretty laggy, but it`s clear that hospitality jobs have troughed, and looked to be starting a rebound. Combine that with the comeback in gaming revenues, and it`s easy to imagine an actual bottom in Las Vegas real estate.
Read the full article here.
The worst housing market in America is Las Vegas, which has continued to plummet in recent readings, with little sign of letting up.
But eventually it will hit bottom, and that could be right now.
Two things to consider:
First, gaming revenues are clearly rebounding. Nevada gaming revenues grew an impressive 11% in October, the third straight monthly increase. On the strip, revenue rebounded by an even more impressive 16%.
Second, this chart which we ran last month shows a pretty nice correlation between hospitality jobs and Nevada home prices (as measured by the Case-Shiller). Now Case-Shiller is pretty laggy, but it`s clear that hospitality jobs have troughed, and looked to be starting a rebound. Combine that with the comeback in gaming revenues, and it`s easy to imagine an actual bottom in Las Vegas real estate.
Read the full article here.
- Joined
- Mar 24, 2009
- Messages
- 16,743
- Joined
- Mar 24, 2009
- Messages
- 16,743
U.S. growth gauge hits highest since May: ECRI
The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 127.4 in the week ended December 10 from 126.5 the previous week, originally reported at 126.4.
That's the highest since May 7, when it stood at 131.9.
The index's annualized growth rate rose to minus 0.1 percent from minus 1.4 percent a week ago, originally reported as minus 1.5 percent. That was the highest since May 28, when it was positive 0.1 percent.
Read the full article here.
The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 127.4 in the week ended December 10 from 126.5 the previous week, originally reported at 126.4.
That's the highest since May 7, when it stood at 131.9.
The index's annualized growth rate rose to minus 0.1 percent from minus 1.4 percent a week ago, originally reported as minus 1.5 percent. That was the highest since May 28, when it was positive 0.1 percent.
Read the full article here.
- Joined
- Mar 24, 2009
- Messages
- 16,743
Our U.S. neighbours: from worse to bad?
(In the editor's absence)
You know your economic recovery is going slowly when the good news is really only news that is less bad. But for the United States, perhaps the fact the news seems to be getting less bad is better than the news getting worse.
The news out today is that fewer Americans filed for unemployment benefits last week for the third week in a row. Of course, the number who applied was still 420,000, but it was 3,000 fewer than the previous week. And on a four-week average, the number declined to its lowest since August 2008, the point where the U.S. financial crisis began to intensify. You can read more about it in this USA Today report. Then on to U.S. housing starts, the all important measure of housing starts that gives hope to (or sparks fear in) B.C.'s lumber industry.
Read the full article ]here.
(In the editor's absence)
You know your economic recovery is going slowly when the good news is really only news that is less bad. But for the United States, perhaps the fact the news seems to be getting less bad is better than the news getting worse.
The news out today is that fewer Americans filed for unemployment benefits last week for the third week in a row. Of course, the number who applied was still 420,000, but it was 3,000 fewer than the previous week. And on a four-week average, the number declined to its lowest since August 2008, the point where the U.S. financial crisis began to intensify. You can read more about it in this USA Today report. Then on to U.S. housing starts, the all important measure of housing starts that gives hope to (or sparks fear in) B.C.'s lumber industry.
Read the full article ]here.
- Joined
- Mar 24, 2009
- Messages
- 16,743
Pheonix is at a strategic crossroads
On Nov. 8, perhaps as few as one third of eligible voters in Phoenix will decide the future direction of this city when they elect a new mayor and four members of the City Council.
The proportion should be much greater because the implications of their decisions will be far-reaching. In a 2009 report by the Urban Living Institute on this region's growth trajectory, Phoenix stands at a crossroads between boomtown or bust.
Throughout the U.S., urban life is at risk and the challenges of revitalizing the cityscape are profound. The decisions that Phoenicians make next November will be as important to the nation's future and our community well-being as any presidential election.
Read the full article ]here.
On Nov. 8, perhaps as few as one third of eligible voters in Phoenix will decide the future direction of this city when they elect a new mayor and four members of the City Council.
The proportion should be much greater because the implications of their decisions will be far-reaching. In a 2009 report by the Urban Living Institute on this region's growth trajectory, Phoenix stands at a crossroads between boomtown or bust.
Throughout the U.S., urban life is at risk and the challenges of revitalizing the cityscape are profound. The decisions that Phoenicians make next November will be as important to the nation's future and our community well-being as any presidential election.
Read the full article ]here.
- Joined
- Mar 24, 2009
- Messages
- 16,743
Jim Cramer waffles on housing
Even Jim Cramer has backed off his real estate recovery expectations. Every since I began writing about the housing market crash, my `second longest` reader has often said that Jim Cramer was much more optimistic in the pace of the recovery of the housing market than what I was reporting. He pointed out that `Cramer says`` on a few occasions, but ultimately I knew once Cramer`s staff really started doing their homework, they would see what I see.
I would love to see a quicker recovery of the housing market, but the issue at hand is all about supply and demand. It really is simple. We have too many homes in most of the US housing markets, and Tallahassee appears to be a very typical US city. I can tell you from my 20 years of analysis of the Tallahassee housing market, that we often parallel the national reports and I think Tallahassee makes for a fair barometer for the national real estate market overall.
Read the full article here.
Even Jim Cramer has backed off his real estate recovery expectations. Every since I began writing about the housing market crash, my `second longest` reader has often said that Jim Cramer was much more optimistic in the pace of the recovery of the housing market than what I was reporting. He pointed out that `Cramer says`` on a few occasions, but ultimately I knew once Cramer`s staff really started doing their homework, they would see what I see.
I would love to see a quicker recovery of the housing market, but the issue at hand is all about supply and demand. It really is simple. We have too many homes in most of the US housing markets, and Tallahassee appears to be a very typical US city. I can tell you from my 20 years of analysis of the Tallahassee housing market, that we often parallel the national reports and I think Tallahassee makes for a fair barometer for the national real estate market overall.
Read the full article here.