December 2007 Research Discussion

[BMironov]

Financial Post:Issues dogging Dodge pile up (Dec 3, 2007)
http://www.financialpost.com/analysis/stor...626&k=91548

Bay Street divided on what rates will do

QUOTE The mental monetary policy gymnastics David Dodge in all likelihood was subjected to in the past few days must have been intense.
...
Here are some of the issues they likely tossed around:-Man who set this schedule? The November labour market report comes out three days after we issue our announcement. Surely that great big public hiring spree has started to cool off by now.

-If we hold interest rates steady at 4.50% and that fellow Bernanke at the Fed cuts U.S. rates to 4.25% or heaven forbid 4.0% next week, what the heck is the loonie going to do?

-This credit crunch is bad, but how much is it really going to squeeze borrowing in this country? And didn`t we want things to cool off anyway?

-Looks like exporters are really starting to take it in the neck but business investment is really zooming, Christmas has got to be big this year and there`s a whack of tax cuts coming.

-What`s with that loonie anyway, now it`s below par?

-Hey look, core consumer prices are at 1.8%, below our 2% target!

Bay Street is quite divided over whether the bank will actually pull the trigger on a rate cut tomorrow. They appear convinced, however, Mr. Dodge will leave his job at the end of January by kicking off a rate-cutting cycle.

 

[BMironov]

Edmonton Journal:Green the colour of misery for Alberta (Dec 3, 2007)
http://www.canada.com/edmontonjournal/news...500&k=91676

NEB paints a punishing picture for oil-based economies in a cleaner world

QUOTE What would happen to Alberta and the mobile, suburban lifestyles its oil and gas fuel across the country if Canada steered the green course demanded by the province`s environmental critics?

The National Energy Board confronts that question -- and gives answers sure to alarm economic boosters -- in the latest edition of periodic 25-year outlook reports crafted as advice for government and industry leaders.

The NEB charts three "scenarios" rated as "plausible outcomes." One is a green future called Triple E, for "balancing economic, environmental and energy objectives" with "co-operative international agreements and rigorous energy demand management policies."
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In a Triple E world, peace breaks out. Policies everywhere focus on environmental protection. An end comes to the "security premium" or fear of shortages inflating oil. Annual average prices fall by two-thirds into the range of $30 to $40 a barrel.

Central Canada makes a comeback as the nation`s business and employment star if the green vision comes true.
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"The manufacturing regions of Canada, specifically Ontario and Quebec, benefit from strong manufacturing export demand."However, the oil and gas producing regions of Canada face low commodity prices, which result in slower production. This is particularly apparent in Alberta where economic growth is actually below the Canadian average."

Oilsands expansion stops abruptly after projects now underway nearly triple production to 2.8 million barrels daily as of 2015. Decay starts to set in, reducing output to 2.6 million barrels per day over the following 15 years.

Natural gas, the Alberta treasury`s biggest royalty revenue-earner, falls permanently on hard times. Gas prices follow oil downward. Production craters, dropping 80 per cent by 2030 because drilling shrinks to hard-times lows last seen a decade ago.


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"Greenhouse gas emissions decline in this scenario," the board says. "This is a significant finding as it would be the first time in Canadian history that greenhouse gas emissions decline over the long term as a result of a concerted effort to manage them."

But watch for greater control efforts after 2030. The NEB calculates the plausible green society`s main feat would be to stop emissions growth. Real cuts in venting fossil fuel waste gas would average only one-tenth of one per cent a year over the next-quarter century, the board reports.

 

[BMironov]

Calgary Herald:$1B health club for members only (Dec 4, 2007)
http://www.canada.com/calgaryherald/story....7aa&k=98689

Massive facility planned along Bow River

QUOTE A $1-billion private health club, complete with a spa, squash courts, hockey rinks, a movie theatre and a 22-storey condo hotel, is being proposed for the city`s west side by a local developer calling it the "largest sporting and social club in North America."

The upscale Edworthy Club would be built just south of the Trans-Canada Highway, between Sarcee Trail and the Bow River. Its developer is seeking approval for land-use changes within the next five months.
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Dolemo proposes a two-million-square-foot facility to be built on about five hectares of a 19-hectare site, featuring 16 squash courts, two hockey rinks, an auditorium, a conference centre, a spa and wellness centre, a 400-unit condo hotel and some 130,000 square feet of workout space, including three gyms, a running track, tennis courts (10 indoor and seven rooftop) as well as five swimming pools.

The facility will be private, with a goal of up to 10,000 members.

Other amenities are to include six restaurants, stores, an art gallery, music and computer training rooms, a car wash, a nursery and an 11,000-square-foot indoor playground.

"This will be a place where everyone in the family can enjoy themselves . . . but stay together under one roof.
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Mike Gavan, a project consultant for Dolemo, adds that environmental assessment studies have been done by the developer showing the lands are a brownfield site, formerly housing a brick factory and an auto-wrecker.
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No date has yet been set for Dolemo`s application to redesignate the land from an urban reserve to a direct control district, but it is expected to go before the Calgary Planning Commission within five months.
Once the planning commission debates the proposal, it will go before a public hearing of city council, allowing communities, environmentalists and any other parties to speak to it.

See it on Google Maps

 

[BMironov]

Globe and Mail:All I want for Christmas is an indoor car wash (Dec 4, 2007)
http://www.reportonbusiness.com/servlet/st...y/Business/home

QUOTE Forget pedestrian desires like walk-in closets and multiple-car garages; indoor car washes and walk-in refrigerators are the new rage, according to a top 10 list compiled by broker network Royal LePage Real Estate Services Ltd.
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Tops of the list for most sought-after luxury home accessories are an elevator car lift and indoor car wash to pamper the BMW or Mercedes-Benz. Total price tag? $2,500 to $6,500 for the lift and $30,000 for the car wash. For avid car collectors in the city the elevator lift is a way to expand garage capacity on a property of limited size.

 

[BMironov]

Globe and Mail:Tax laws a pain for foreigners: survey (Dec 6, 2007)
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/sto...PStory/Business

QUOTE Tax laws in Canada are considered a barrier to investment by foreign venture capital firms, whose money is needed to make up for a shortage of domestic funding, a global survey has found.

Consulting firm Deloitte interviewed 528 venture capitalists around the world for its Global Trends in Venture Capital 2007 Survey. Forty per cent of U.S. respondents and 28 per cent of global respondents said the tax laws are a problem for them.
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As a result, Canada remains the third-biggest market behind China and India for U.S. venture capital expansion. Survey respondents said there were "lower costs, lower regulatory compliance and legal costs than the U.S. ... And Canada was viewed as safer than China, India and Israel."

Report available at:
http://www.deloitte.com/dtt/cda/doc/conten...vey_dec2007.pdf

 

[timk519]

Kass: So Long, Santa Rally -- Hardly Knew Ya
http://www.thestreet.com/s/kass-so-long-sa...10392794_5.html
QUOTE Above all, we should keep our eyes and ears open. Whether right or wrong in my market view, I am always committed to explaining my analysis and investment rationale. And that view remains that the world equity markets have not priced in the ramifications of a materially adverse change in credit supply and availability as well as the growing probability of an economic and profit recession in the U.S.

 

[Thomas Beyer]

QUOTE (BMironov @ Dec 3 2007, 01:40 PM) Oilsands expansion stops abruptly after projects now underway nearly triple production to 2.8 million barrels daily as of 2015. Decay starts to set in, reducing output to 2.6 million barrels per day over the following 15 years.

Natural gas, the Alberta treasury`s biggest royalty revenue-earner, falls permanently on hard times. Gas prices follow oil downward. Production craters, dropping 80 per cent by 2030 because drilling shrinks to hard-times lows last seen a decade ago.

Why would oilsand development stop ? Because all Asian cars go hydrogen, nuclear or electric ? Yes, houses can be heated with coal or wood .. but how are 99%+ of the wprld`s cars powered ? SAGD could use nuclear energy instead of gas .. but at the earliest in 10 years ..

Where in the world can you get cheap gas / oil ? Mexico is running dry .. Iran will trun toward sthe west or Israel ? Russia will stop corruption overnight ? Venezuela invites western nations back ?

 

[BMironov]

Globe and Mail:Cities in global competition for talent (Dec 12, 2007)
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/sto...PStory/National

Research organization warns ability of urban centres to attract `best and brightest` may be in jeopardy

QUOTE The lure of a red-hot economy has attracted thousands to Calgary and made it the most attractive city in Canada, a new study concludes. Toronto and Vancouver finished second and third, respectively, in the Conference Board of Canada report to be released this morning. It ranks the country`s large metropolitan areas for the first time based on economy, health, society, housing, environment, innovation and education.
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"Cities without the ability to act as magnets and attract new people will struggle to stay prosperous," says the report, titled City Magnets: Benchmarking the Attractiveness of Canada`s CMAs [census metropolitan areas].
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Canadian cities
Rank___City {Grade}[list type=decimal][*] Calgary {A}[*] Toronto {A}[*] Vancouver {A}[*] Edmonton {A}[*] Victoria {A}[*] Ottawa-Gatineau {A}[*] Halifax {B}[*] Oshawa, Ont. {B}[*] Kitchener, Ont. {B}[*] Abbotsford, B.C. {B}[*] Quebec City {B}[*] Sherbrooke {B}[*] Saskatoon {B}[*] Montreal {B} Hamilton {B} St. John`s {B} Regina {B} London, Ont. {C} Winnipeg {C} Kingston {C} Sudbury {C} Trois-Rivières {C} Windsor, Ont. {C} St. Catharines-Niagara {C} Saguenay, Que. {D} Saint John {D} Thunder Bay {D}[/list type=decimal]