Cash Flow Returns.
- Thread starter GaryMcGowan
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QUOTE (GaryMcGowan @ Aug 10 2010, 11:14 AM)
I thought this post was about cash returns!
Certainly oil and gas will play a big part in our returns as investors. I'm very forward thinking and I agree that the electric car or an alternative to the gas car will be around in thirty years. They have them now! As mentioned above oil and gas is being consumed and there will always be consumers for it. At what level? who knows? I do know that billions of dollars is being invested for and around it. It is not going away anytime soon.
Gary, I feel bad and tried to make a new posting stream (Is Calgary ripe for investment?). I think we started to digress because the term Cash-on-cash return was not well understood. After that we digressed even further. Maybe we should start over, including a precise definition of Cash-on-Cash return.
This may be difficult because I think we all seem to use the same names for completely different measurements of profitability. It seems that some measurements such as cash-on-cash are even differently used when dealing with long-term holds compared to RTOs. So let's start a new thread with a precise definition and see what happens.
I thought this post was about cash returns!
Certainly oil and gas will play a big part in our returns as investors. I'm very forward thinking and I agree that the electric car or an alternative to the gas car will be around in thirty years. They have them now! As mentioned above oil and gas is being consumed and there will always be consumers for it. At what level? who knows? I do know that billions of dollars is being invested for and around it. It is not going away anytime soon.
Gary, I feel bad and tried to make a new posting stream (Is Calgary ripe for investment?). I think we started to digress because the term Cash-on-cash return was not well understood. After that we digressed even further. Maybe we should start over, including a precise definition of Cash-on-Cash return.
This may be difficult because I think we all seem to use the same names for completely different measurements of profitability. It seems that some measurements such as cash-on-cash are even differently used when dealing with long-term holds compared to RTOs. So let's start a new thread with a precise definition and see what happens.
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QUOTE (housingrental @ Aug 10 2010, 11:09 AM)
..
Electric car plus oil at $30 in the future.... as few will be driving cars that use much oil!!!
If even 10% of cars today used electricity in the US or Canada today, the electric grid would COLLAPSE. It doesn't have enough capacity !
Will we see more electric cars due to noise, pollution and cost: sure .. eventually .. but natural gas is quiet, has low pollution and is cheaper .. so we will see that next .. for the next 10-20 years .. especially for long haul trucks where electricity is NOT an option to due weight of freight and batteries !
It is one thing to drive 6km from your home to the sub-way or to buy groceries in your cute lightweight electric car .. quite another to take 4 people on a vacation from GTA to Quebec .. as the car will have to be re-charged every 120 km .. while the kids wait 3-4 h per stop ??? hardly !! So it will likely be a hybrid or will have a gas powered on board charger like the new Chevy Volt.
Will we have battery exchange stations .. drop and swap .. sure ! But only if oil or natural gas are 5-8 times today's price !!! Will we see this in my life time: probably .. say 2030 or so !!
Oil at $30 exists only in the dreams of left leaning politicians spending your money on unrealistic voter generating schemes .. but not in the future real world !!
..
Electric car plus oil at $30 in the future.... as few will be driving cars that use much oil!!!
If even 10% of cars today used electricity in the US or Canada today, the electric grid would COLLAPSE. It doesn't have enough capacity !
Will we see more electric cars due to noise, pollution and cost: sure .. eventually .. but natural gas is quiet, has low pollution and is cheaper .. so we will see that next .. for the next 10-20 years .. especially for long haul trucks where electricity is NOT an option to due weight of freight and batteries !
It is one thing to drive 6km from your home to the sub-way or to buy groceries in your cute lightweight electric car .. quite another to take 4 people on a vacation from GTA to Quebec .. as the car will have to be re-charged every 120 km .. while the kids wait 3-4 h per stop ??? hardly !! So it will likely be a hybrid or will have a gas powered on board charger like the new Chevy Volt.
Will we have battery exchange stations .. drop and swap .. sure ! But only if oil or natural gas are 5-8 times today's price !!! Will we see this in my life time: probably .. say 2030 or so !!
Oil at $30 exists only in the dreams of left leaning politicians spending your money on unrealistic voter generating schemes .. but not in the future real world !!
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QUOTE (ThomasBeyer @ Aug 10 2010, 06:38 PM)
If even 10% of cars today used electricity in the US or Canada today, the electric grid would COLLAPSE. It doesn't have enough capacity !
.....
Will we have battery exchange stations .. drop and swap .. sure ! But only if oil or natural gas are 5-8 times today's price !!! Will we see this in my life time: probably .. say 2030 or so !!
Oil at $30 exists only in the dreams of left leaning politicians spending your money on unrealistic voter generating schemes .. but not in the future real world !!
I don't know how you look at a car purchase. For me, a lot depends on fuel/energy use. So when I look at a hybrid such as the Toyota Prius, I ask my self: The Prius is $6,000 to 10,000 more expensive than a comparable gas propelled car. So with my annual car use of 15,000km how much do I save switching from a Altima to a Prius. My old Altima is doing 100 km per 9 liters while the Prius is closer to 4.3 liters or so. So, I would save about 50% on my gas bill of $1500 per year. Oh, so I save $750 per year or it takes 10 years to pay for the price difference between an new Altima and a Prius. That is not counting the unknown technology and thus unknown battery life and replacement and whatever else can go wrong.
If I lease the car, most of its value will be lost in the first three or four years (paid for by me); so those numbers are even less favorable. Unless I am a cab driver with 50,000 to 100,000 km on the odometer every year, the question is whether I am willing to pay more for a hybrid than for a regular comparable car. The only reason I might buy a Prius is to give it the benefit of the doubt and pray that its battery disposal and other repair unknows don't cause more financial harm and environmental harm than good.
I like to buy one but I have not been able to justify the jump. So my wife is still driving the 15 year old Altima (for virtually no costs) and I drive a 4 cylinder Rav 4 (our compromise for a real gassy SUV), because during a Calgary winter you definitely want to have a heavier 4-wheel drive. Even my wife does swear by the Rav 4 in winter and you can't kick her into the Altima no matter how much she loves it.
So with after 10 years of hybrid technology we have still not made the switch. That being so, I wonder how many electric cars we'll be driving 30 years from now.
I used to be enthusiastic (to my financial regret and pain) about the Ballard hydrogen engine, something that would be driving within 5 years. That is now also 10 to 15 years ago and the true hydrogen car is still many years away from becoming reality. Only high oil prices will change that and Jeff Rubin's new smaller world.
Will it happen? Yes, but much more gradual than many expect. I am all for the 'energy' revolution but I don't think it will happen with low oil prices. On the contrary and even so, it is at least a decade away if not longer before hybrids and electric cars will start to become main stream.
If even 10% of cars today used electricity in the US or Canada today, the electric grid would COLLAPSE. It doesn't have enough capacity !
.....
Will we have battery exchange stations .. drop and swap .. sure ! But only if oil or natural gas are 5-8 times today's price !!! Will we see this in my life time: probably .. say 2030 or so !!
Oil at $30 exists only in the dreams of left leaning politicians spending your money on unrealistic voter generating schemes .. but not in the future real world !!
I don't know how you look at a car purchase. For me, a lot depends on fuel/energy use. So when I look at a hybrid such as the Toyota Prius, I ask my self: The Prius is $6,000 to 10,000 more expensive than a comparable gas propelled car. So with my annual car use of 15,000km how much do I save switching from a Altima to a Prius. My old Altima is doing 100 km per 9 liters while the Prius is closer to 4.3 liters or so. So, I would save about 50% on my gas bill of $1500 per year. Oh, so I save $750 per year or it takes 10 years to pay for the price difference between an new Altima and a Prius. That is not counting the unknown technology and thus unknown battery life and replacement and whatever else can go wrong.
If I lease the car, most of its value will be lost in the first three or four years (paid for by me); so those numbers are even less favorable. Unless I am a cab driver with 50,000 to 100,000 km on the odometer every year, the question is whether I am willing to pay more for a hybrid than for a regular comparable car. The only reason I might buy a Prius is to give it the benefit of the doubt and pray that its battery disposal and other repair unknows don't cause more financial harm and environmental harm than good.
I like to buy one but I have not been able to justify the jump. So my wife is still driving the 15 year old Altima (for virtually no costs) and I drive a 4 cylinder Rav 4 (our compromise for a real gassy SUV), because during a Calgary winter you definitely want to have a heavier 4-wheel drive. Even my wife does swear by the Rav 4 in winter and you can't kick her into the Altima no matter how much she loves it.
So with after 10 years of hybrid technology we have still not made the switch. That being so, I wonder how many electric cars we'll be driving 30 years from now.
I used to be enthusiastic (to my financial regret and pain) about the Ballard hydrogen engine, something that would be driving within 5 years. That is now also 10 to 15 years ago and the true hydrogen car is still many years away from becoming reality. Only high oil prices will change that and Jeff Rubin's new smaller world.
Will it happen? Yes, but much more gradual than many expect. I am all for the 'energy' revolution but I don't think it will happen with low oil prices. On the contrary and even so, it is at least a decade away if not longer before hybrids and electric cars will start to become main stream.
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I am sorry Gary
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Hi Thomas and Godfried
You two are ignoring something big from this though - Increase in oil demand is supposed to push prices forward
The vast majority of drivers - ie what will be influencing increased demand - will be in developing countries that generally:
Aren`t needing few hundred KM trips by car
Have serious air pollution issues that you will see legislation to improve
Improving technology of oil free or minimized cars
Improving oil production technology reducing supply cost
The future looks closer to $30 / barrel than $300
Remember you heard it hear first!!!
You two are ignoring something big from this though - Increase in oil demand is supposed to push prices forward
The vast majority of drivers - ie what will be influencing increased demand - will be in developing countries that generally:
Aren`t needing few hundred KM trips by car
Have serious air pollution issues that you will see legislation to improve
Improving technology of oil free or minimized cars
Improving oil production technology reducing supply cost
The future looks closer to $30 / barrel than $300
Remember you heard it hear first!!!
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- Oct 22, 2007
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- 1,191
QUOTE (housingrental @ Aug 10 2010, 08:10 PM)
Hi Thomas and Godfried
You two are ignoring something big from this though - Increase in oil demand is supposed to push prices forward
The vast majority of drivers - ie what will be influencing increased demand - will be in developing countries that generally:
Aren't needing few hundred KM trips by car
Have serious air pollution issues that you will see legislation to improve
Improving technology of oil free or minimized cars
Improving oil production technology reducing supply cost
The future looks closer to $30 / barrel than $300
Remember you heard it hear first!!!
Government have a much better tool to promote reduced oil consumption and have used that for years, especially in Europe. Its called 'taxation'. Still it took years for Europeans to reduce there gasoline intake - in fact it has been growing slightly until recently if I am not mistaken.
But the climate, infrastructure and travel distances in Europe are so that smaller cars can be used. Not so easy in North America.
Hi Thomas and Godfried
You two are ignoring something big from this though - Increase in oil demand is supposed to push prices forward
The vast majority of drivers - ie what will be influencing increased demand - will be in developing countries that generally:
Aren't needing few hundred KM trips by car
Have serious air pollution issues that you will see legislation to improve
Improving technology of oil free or minimized cars
Improving oil production technology reducing supply cost
The future looks closer to $30 / barrel than $300
Remember you heard it hear first!!!
Government have a much better tool to promote reduced oil consumption and have used that for years, especially in Europe. Its called 'taxation'. Still it took years for Europeans to reduce there gasoline intake - in fact it has been growing slightly until recently if I am not mistaken.
But the climate, infrastructure and travel distances in Europe are so that smaller cars can be used. Not so easy in North America.
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QUOTE (housingrental @ Aug 10 2010, 08:10 PM) You two are ignoring something big from this though - Increase in oil demand is supposed to push prices forward
..
indeed: higher demand with flat or declining production = higher prices
QUOTE (housingrental @ Aug 10 2010, 08:10 PM) Aren`t needing few hundred KM trips by car
Have serious air pollution issues that you will see legislation to improve
Improving technology of oil free or minimized cars
..
indeed .. all in good time .. i..e very slowly in countries with poor media/public forums and many other problems such as "I need to find a job or eat" .. It begs the question why GM in India and China now sells more cars [with conventional technology] than in the US .. BECAUSE THEY ARE CHEAPER THAN THE ELECTRIC ALTERNATIVE .. and Indians and Chinese have large families with one car only and thus a BIG car with 5 or 7 seats comes in handy !!! And so it will be for many more years to come .. and yes .. eventually we will have more electric cars when gasoline costs $4 to $6/litre .. only 2x to 3x as high as Europe today !! But: much like nuclear, the waste problem hasn`t been solved ! What to do with all those old very toxic batteries !!! not exactly as "green" as advertised !
The gasoline engine has been around for over 100 years because it makes sense ! gasoline has very high energy density ! It is great for transportation due to the energy per kg of weight it produces !! far superior to batteries !
QUOTE (housingrental @ Aug 10 2010, 08:10 PM) ..
Improving oil production technology reducing supply cost
sure .. drilling in the gulf at 5000 ft is real cheap !
and with the new legislation for off-shore drilling oil sands will be both a cost leader and heralded as green energy !!
any new oil filed is very remote or very difficult to access .. thus expensive !
QUOTE (housingrental @ Aug 10 2010, 08:10 PM) ..
The future looks closer to .. $300
Remember you heard it hear first!!!
noted .. $300 .. you saw it here first !
..
indeed: higher demand with flat or declining production = higher prices
QUOTE (housingrental @ Aug 10 2010, 08:10 PM) Aren`t needing few hundred KM trips by car
Have serious air pollution issues that you will see legislation to improve
Improving technology of oil free or minimized cars
..
indeed .. all in good time .. i..e very slowly in countries with poor media/public forums and many other problems such as "I need to find a job or eat" .. It begs the question why GM in India and China now sells more cars [with conventional technology] than in the US .. BECAUSE THEY ARE CHEAPER THAN THE ELECTRIC ALTERNATIVE .. and Indians and Chinese have large families with one car only and thus a BIG car with 5 or 7 seats comes in handy !!! And so it will be for many more years to come .. and yes .. eventually we will have more electric cars when gasoline costs $4 to $6/litre .. only 2x to 3x as high as Europe today !! But: much like nuclear, the waste problem hasn`t been solved ! What to do with all those old very toxic batteries !!! not exactly as "green" as advertised !
The gasoline engine has been around for over 100 years because it makes sense ! gasoline has very high energy density ! It is great for transportation due to the energy per kg of weight it produces !! far superior to batteries !
QUOTE (housingrental @ Aug 10 2010, 08:10 PM) ..
Improving oil production technology reducing supply cost
sure .. drilling in the gulf at 5000 ft is real cheap !
and with the new legislation for off-shore drilling oil sands will be both a cost leader and heralded as green energy !!
any new oil filed is very remote or very difficult to access .. thus expensive !
QUOTE (housingrental @ Aug 10 2010, 08:10 PM) ..
The future looks closer to .. $300
Remember you heard it hear first!!!
noted .. $300 .. you saw it here first !
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QUOTE (ThomasBeyer @ Aug 11 2010, 09:41 AM) ..... QUOTE (housingrental @ Aug 10 2010, 08:10 PM)
http://http://www.myreinspace.com/forums/#91001..
The future looks closer to .. $300
Remember you heard it hear first!!! End QUOTE
noted .. $300 .. you saw it here first
That is so funny!
http://http://www.myreinspace.com/forums/#91001..The future looks closer to .. $300
Remember you heard it hear first!!! End QUOTE
noted .. $300 .. you saw it here first
That is so funny!
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I laughed too...
We will revisit this post in time
Kind of like my posts on Alberta here and elsewhere in 06 and 07
And my clients who got out on time...
We will revisit this post in time
Kind of like my posts on Alberta here and elsewhere in 06 and 07
And my clients who got out on time...
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QUOTE (housingrental @ Aug 11 2010, 12:45 PM) I laughed too...
We will revisit this post in time
Kind of like my posts on Alberta here and elsewhere in 06 and 07
And my clients who got out on time...
indeed .. we too SOLD a ton of properties in 2006 and 2007 .. [2 or 3 featured prominently on the REIN invite to the multi-family event .. a 4th was sold for $15M but fell apart with a $500,000 deposit left behind for us to keep .. appraised today over $10M .. but OK since we bought it for slightly over $5M in 2005] and should have sold even more in that crazy crazy boom into the peak ..
but NOW are BUYING again in Alberta as the prices have flattened out and have risen already !!
Alberta`s winter is over .. it is spring time again !!
We will revisit this post in time
Kind of like my posts on Alberta here and elsewhere in 06 and 07
And my clients who got out on time...
indeed .. we too SOLD a ton of properties in 2006 and 2007 .. [2 or 3 featured prominently on the REIN invite to the multi-family event .. a 4th was sold for $15M but fell apart with a $500,000 deposit left behind for us to keep .. appraised today over $10M .. but OK since we bought it for slightly over $5M in 2005] and should have sold even more in that crazy crazy boom into the peak ..
but NOW are BUYING again in Alberta as the prices have flattened out and have risen already !!
Alberta`s winter is over .. it is spring time again !!
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Nice work!
a 4th was sold for $15M but fell apart with a $500,000 deposit left behind for us to keep .. appraised today over $10M
You are a stronger person than me Thomas... I`d try not to think about this
a 4th was sold for $15M but fell apart with a $500,000 deposit left behind for us to keep .. appraised today over $10M
You are a stronger person than me Thomas... I`d try not to think about this