QUOTE (ThomasBeyer @ Aug 10 2010, 06:38 PM)
If even 10% of cars today used electricity in the US or Canada today, the electric grid would COLLAPSE. It doesn't have enough capacity !
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Will we have battery exchange stations .. drop and swap .. sure ! But only if oil or natural gas are 5-8 times today's price !!! Will we see this in my life time: probably .. say 2030 or so !!
Oil at $30 exists only in the dreams of left leaning politicians spending your money on unrealistic voter generating schemes .. but not in the future real world !!
I don't know how you look at a car purchase. For me, a lot depends on fuel/energy use. So when I look at a hybrid such as the Toyota Prius, I ask my self: The Prius is $6,000 to 10,000 more expensive than a comparable gas propelled car. So with my annual car use of 15,000km how much do I save switching from a Altima to a Prius. My old Altima is doing 100 km per 9 liters while the Prius is closer to 4.3 liters or so. So, I would save about 50% on my gas bill of $1500 per year. Oh, so I save $750 per year or it takes 10 years to pay for the price difference between an new Altima and a Prius. That is not counting the unknown technology and thus unknown battery life and replacement and whatever else can go wrong.
If I lease the car, most of its value will be lost in the first three or four years (paid for by me); so those numbers are even less favorable. Unless I am a cab driver with 50,000 to 100,000 km on the odometer every year, the question is whether I am willing to pay more for a hybrid than for a regular comparable car. The only reason I might buy a Prius is to give it the benefit of the doubt and pray that its battery disposal and other repair unknows don't cause more financial harm and environmental harm than good.
I like to buy one but I have not been able to justify the jump. So my wife is still driving the 15 year old Altima (for virtually no costs) and I drive a 4 cylinder Rav 4 (our compromise for a real gassy SUV), because during a Calgary winter you definitely want to have a heavier 4-wheel drive. Even my wife does swear by the Rav 4 in winter and you can't kick her into the Altima no matter how much she loves it.
So with after 10 years of hybrid technology we have still not made the switch. That being so, I wonder how many electric cars we'll be driving 30 years from now.
I used to be enthusiastic (to my financial regret and pain) about the Ballard hydrogen engine, something that would be driving within 5 years. That is now also 10 to 15 years ago and the true hydrogen car is still many years away from becoming reality. Only high oil prices will change that and Jeff Rubin's new smaller world.
Will it happen? Yes, but much more gradual than many expect. I am all for the 'energy' revolution but I don't think it will happen with low oil prices. On the contrary and even so, it is at least a decade away if not longer before hybrids and electric cars will start to become main stream.