August 2012 U.S. Economic Fundamentals
- Thread starter Ally
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Unemployment claims rise less than expected in the U.S.
The number of Americans filing new claims for jobless benefits rose less than expected last week, but the data continues to be influenced by distortions from seasonal auto shutdowns.
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose 8,000 to a seasonally adjusted 365,000, the Labor Department said on Thursday. The prior week's figure was revised up to 357,000 from the previously reported 353,000.
"The claims number is not that bad. There does seem to be some difficulty dealing with the seasonals this time of year whether it's auto plant closures or lack thereof," said Cary Leahey, a senior economist at Decision Economics in New York.
Read the full article here.
The number of Americans filing new claims for jobless benefits rose less than expected last week, but the data continues to be influenced by distortions from seasonal auto shutdowns.
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose 8,000 to a seasonally adjusted 365,000, the Labor Department said on Thursday. The prior week's figure was revised up to 357,000 from the previously reported 353,000.
"The claims number is not that bad. There does seem to be some difficulty dealing with the seasonals this time of year whether it's auto plant closures or lack thereof," said Cary Leahey, a senior economist at Decision Economics in New York.
Read the full article here.
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We're about to hit a pivotal moment in the housing recovery
A big moment is coming up in the housing recovery.
According to the latest Case-Shiller report, home prices were only down 0.66% in May, and as you can see they're very close to being up year-over-year.
Read the full article here.
A big moment is coming up in the housing recovery.
According to the latest Case-Shiller report, home prices were only down 0.66% in May, and as you can see they're very close to being up year-over-year.
Read the full article here.
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How long will the party last for U.S. homebuilders?
FORTUNE -- It's been a rough five years for the nation's homebuilders. Following the housing crash, they battled inventory gluts, tumbling home prices, a decimated economy, and a sharp pullback in demand.
But it appears they're back. Big time.
A surge in new home orders, low mortgage rates, a significant drop-off in housing inventory, and an uptick in home prices are fueling shareholder optimism. Shares of homebuilding stocks have surged 49% on average in 2012 in anticipation of the big rebound, according to UBS analyst David Goldberg. Some builder stocks have soared even higher, such as Standard Pacific (SPF), which has almost doubled in price, and Hovnanian, which is up 70%.
Read the full article here.
FORTUNE -- It's been a rough five years for the nation's homebuilders. Following the housing crash, they battled inventory gluts, tumbling home prices, a decimated economy, and a sharp pullback in demand.
But it appears they're back. Big time.
A surge in new home orders, low mortgage rates, a significant drop-off in housing inventory, and an uptick in home prices are fueling shareholder optimism. Shares of homebuilding stocks have surged 49% on average in 2012 in anticipation of the big rebound, according to UBS analyst David Goldberg. Some builder stocks have soared even higher, such as Standard Pacific (SPF), which has almost doubled in price, and Hovnanian, which is up 70%.
Read the full article here.
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Turning foreclosures into rentals: 10 U.S. cities with the hottest markets
A growing number of savvy investors are profitting off of the volatile housing market by buying foreclosed homes from big banks and turning them into rentals.
With an excess of foreclosed homes on the market and the demand for rental homesskyrocketing, the business of flipping foreclosures into rentals is booming and isprojected to be a $100 billion business this year, according to a report by CoreLogic.
Want in on the action?
Read the full article here.
A growing number of savvy investors are profitting off of the volatile housing market by buying foreclosed homes from big banks and turning them into rentals.
With an excess of foreclosed homes on the market and the demand for rental homesskyrocketing, the business of flipping foreclosures into rentals is booming and isprojected to be a $100 billion business this year, according to a report by CoreLogic.
Want in on the action?
Read the full article here.
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U.S. birthrate lowest in 20 years
Boomer demographics and postponement of marriage on account of student debt and poor finances are two of the key reasons that I long-ago stated the housing recovery would be slow for a decade.
Declining birthrates now show that is indeed what is happening.
Read the full article here.
Boomer demographics and postponement of marriage on account of student debt and poor finances are two of the key reasons that I long-ago stated the housing recovery would be slow for a decade.
Declining birthrates now show that is indeed what is happening.
Read the full article here.
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Deck stacked against real estate recovery
Remember that real estate recovery so many experts have been talking about lately? I believe it was the latest Housing Starts Report that got the premature ball rolling most recently. Or it may have been the "happy" measure of home builder sentiment reported the day before. Well, data reported over the last week begs to differ, as does the macroeconomic backdrop.
Recent reports were mixed in making the case for and against a near-term real estate revival.
Read the full article here.
Remember that real estate recovery so many experts have been talking about lately? I believe it was the latest Housing Starts Report that got the premature ball rolling most recently. Or it may have been the "happy" measure of home builder sentiment reported the day before. Well, data reported over the last week begs to differ, as does the macroeconomic backdrop.
Recent reports were mixed in making the case for and against a near-term real estate revival.
Read the full article here.
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Buying beats renting in just 3 years in much of the U.S.
Is it better to buy a home or rent? An analysis released today by real estate information provider Zillow.com finds that in most of the U.S., buying becomes a better deal than renting after only three years of residence.
In Miami, Fort Lauderdale, and Tampa, for example, owning beats renting after 1.6 years, the study finds. Zillow determined the breakeven horizon`the point at which owning becomes more financially advantageous than renting the same home--for more than 200 metro areas and 7,500 cities around the U.S.
In many metro areas, the advantage comes much sooner.
Read the full article here.
Is it better to buy a home or rent? An analysis released today by real estate information provider Zillow.com finds that in most of the U.S., buying becomes a better deal than renting after only three years of residence.
In Miami, Fort Lauderdale, and Tampa, for example, owning beats renting after 1.6 years, the study finds. Zillow determined the breakeven horizon`the point at which owning becomes more financially advantageous than renting the same home--for more than 200 metro areas and 7,500 cities around the U.S.
In many metro areas, the advantage comes much sooner.
Read the full article here.
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Companies say 3 million positions left unfilled in skills crisis
Roddale Smith knew he could do better than toting chairs around at Cincinnati Children`s Hospital Medical Center. And when he decided to pursue an education, he didn`t have to go far. His employer brought the classroom to him.
It paid off for both sides. Smith, 32, graduated from nursing school last month and Children`s Hospital, in need of skilled workers, has a new job waiting for him. His salary, now $12 an hour, will almost double.
Read the full article here.
Roddale Smith knew he could do better than toting chairs around at Cincinnati Children`s Hospital Medical Center. And when he decided to pursue an education, he didn`t have to go far. His employer brought the classroom to him.
It paid off for both sides. Smith, 32, graduated from nursing school last month and Children`s Hospital, in need of skilled workers, has a new job waiting for him. His salary, now $12 an hour, will almost double.
Read the full article here.
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Orlando housing market enjoying across the board price increases
According to the Orlando Regional Realtor Association (ORRA), the median price of existing homes sold in the Orlando area has increased more than 15.74 percent since the beginning of the year, from $108,000 in January to $125,000 at the half-year mark in June. When compared to January 2011, the median price has increased 31.72 percent.
The June 2012 overall median price ($125,000) is 13.64 percent higher than it was in June 2011 ($110,000) and 4.17 percent higher than it was in May 2012 ($120,000). In addition, the median price has now posted positive year-to-year gains for 12 consecutive months.
Read the full article here.
According to the Orlando Regional Realtor Association (ORRA), the median price of existing homes sold in the Orlando area has increased more than 15.74 percent since the beginning of the year, from $108,000 in January to $125,000 at the half-year mark in June. When compared to January 2011, the median price has increased 31.72 percent.
The June 2012 overall median price ($125,000) is 13.64 percent higher than it was in June 2011 ($110,000) and 4.17 percent higher than it was in May 2012 ($120,000). In addition, the median price has now posted positive year-to-year gains for 12 consecutive months.
Read the full article here.
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U.S. adds jobs, but higher jobless rate keeps fed move on the table
U.S. employers in July hired the most workers in five months, but an increase in the jobless rate to 8.3 per cent could kept prospects of further monetary stimulus from the Federal Reserve on the table.
Nonfarm payrolls rose 163,000 last month, the Labor Department said on Friday, snapping three straight months of job gains below 100,000 and offering hope for the ailing economy.
Read the full article here.
U.S. employers in July hired the most workers in five months, but an increase in the jobless rate to 8.3 per cent could kept prospects of further monetary stimulus from the Federal Reserve on the table.
Nonfarm payrolls rose 163,000 last month, the Labor Department said on Friday, snapping three straight months of job gains below 100,000 and offering hope for the ailing economy.
Read the full article here.
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Rent increases outpace modest home price increases
SAN FRANCISCO, July 3, 2012 ` Trulia today released the latest findings from the Trulia Price Monitor and the Trulia Rent Monitor, the earliest leading indicators available of trends in home prices and rents. Based on the for-sale homes and rentals listed on Trulia, these monitors take into account changes in the mix of listed homes and reflect trends in prices and rents for similar homes in similar neighborhoods through June 30, 2012.
Asking Prices Rise in June, Fourth Solid Increase in Past Five Months
Asking prices on for-sale homes`which lead sales prices by approximately two or more months ` increased 0.3 percent in June month over month (M-o-M), seasonally adjusted. With the exception of nearly flat prices in May, prices rose in four of the past five months. Asking prices in June rose nationally 0.8 percent quarter over quarter (Q-o-Q), seasonally adjusted. Year-over-year (Y-o-Y) asking prices rose by 0.3 percent; excluding foreclosures, asking prices rose Y-o-Y by 1.7 percent. Nationally, 44 out of the 100 largest metros had Y-o-Y price increases, and 84 out of the 100 largest metros had Q-o-Q price increases, seasonally adjusted.
Read the full article here.
SAN FRANCISCO, July 3, 2012 ` Trulia today released the latest findings from the Trulia Price Monitor and the Trulia Rent Monitor, the earliest leading indicators available of trends in home prices and rents. Based on the for-sale homes and rentals listed on Trulia, these monitors take into account changes in the mix of listed homes and reflect trends in prices and rents for similar homes in similar neighborhoods through June 30, 2012.
Asking Prices Rise in June, Fourth Solid Increase in Past Five Months
Asking prices on for-sale homes`which lead sales prices by approximately two or more months ` increased 0.3 percent in June month over month (M-o-M), seasonally adjusted. With the exception of nearly flat prices in May, prices rose in four of the past five months. Asking prices in June rose nationally 0.8 percent quarter over quarter (Q-o-Q), seasonally adjusted. Year-over-year (Y-o-Y) asking prices rose by 0.3 percent; excluding foreclosures, asking prices rose Y-o-Y by 1.7 percent. Nationally, 44 out of the 100 largest metros had Y-o-Y price increases, and 84 out of the 100 largest metros had Q-o-Q price increases, seasonally adjusted.
Read the full article here.
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Jobs report crushes expectations, but unemployment rises to 8.3%
The jobs report number is out, and it's good. But it's not amazing.
There were 163K net new jobs, well ahead of last month, and well ahead of expectations. Analysts had only been looking for 100K new jobs.
PRIVATE payrolls surged by 172K. That's well ahead of the 110K that was expected.
Read the full article here.
The jobs report number is out, and it's good. But it's not amazing.
There were 163K net new jobs, well ahead of last month, and well ahead of expectations. Analysts had only been looking for 100K new jobs.
PRIVATE payrolls surged by 172K. That's well ahead of the 110K that was expected.
Read the full article here.
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The U.S. is pretty F****d
Neil Barofsky, the former Inspector General of the Troubled Asset Relief Fund, can sum up the state of the nation in two words: "Pretty f****d."
The concise assessment came Tuesday during a question and answer session on Gawker, during which a commenter asked: "So we're just totally f****d, right? As citizens, like no-way-out f****d?" The former bailout watchdog, who is currently promoting his new book Bailout, went political with his message.
"We need to convince those seeking or trying to retain power that they will not get our votes unless and until they commit to meaningful change of a financial system," he wrote in the Q&A.
Read the full article here.
Neil Barofsky, the former Inspector General of the Troubled Asset Relief Fund, can sum up the state of the nation in two words: "Pretty f****d."
The concise assessment came Tuesday during a question and answer session on Gawker, during which a commenter asked: "So we're just totally f****d, right? As citizens, like no-way-out f****d?" The former bailout watchdog, who is currently promoting his new book Bailout, went political with his message.
"We need to convince those seeking or trying to retain power that they will not get our votes unless and until they commit to meaningful change of a financial system," he wrote in the Q&A.
Read the full article here.
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Recession generation opts to rent, not buy, houses and cars
The day Michael Anselmo signed a lease on his first apartment in New York City, he lost his job at Buck Consultants LLC. He spent about 10 months struggling to pay rent with unemployment benefits. Two years later he`s still hesitant to buy a home or even a road bike.
`Every decision that I have made since I lost my job has been colored by that insecurity I feel about the future,` said Anselmo, 28, who now rents an apartment in Austin, Texas, and works as a consultant for UnitedHealth Group Inc. `Buying a house is just further out on the timeline for me than it used to be.`
Anselmo and many of his peers are wary about making large purchases after entering adulthood in the deepest recession and weakest recovery since World War II. Confronting a jobless rate above 8 percent since 2009 and student-loan debt hitting about $1 trillion, 20-to-34-year-olds are renting apartments, cars and even clothing to save money and stay flexible.
Read the full article here.
The day Michael Anselmo signed a lease on his first apartment in New York City, he lost his job at Buck Consultants LLC. He spent about 10 months struggling to pay rent with unemployment benefits. Two years later he`s still hesitant to buy a home or even a road bike.
`Every decision that I have made since I lost my job has been colored by that insecurity I feel about the future,` said Anselmo, 28, who now rents an apartment in Austin, Texas, and works as a consultant for UnitedHealth Group Inc. `Buying a house is just further out on the timeline for me than it used to be.`
Anselmo and many of his peers are wary about making large purchases after entering adulthood in the deepest recession and weakest recovery since World War II. Confronting a jobless rate above 8 percent since 2009 and student-loan debt hitting about $1 trillion, 20-to-34-year-olds are renting apartments, cars and even clothing to save money and stay flexible.
Read the full article here.
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Boomer retirement housing preferences shifting
The classic image of new retirees making a bee-line to Florida or the Sun Belt to live out their lives is sun-drenched comfort is increasingly a thing of the past.
Among U.S. workers age 55 and older, almost two-thirds -- 62 percent -- think that when they retire they will continue to live in their current state of residence, according to a survey by the Pulte Group, parent of Del Webb, a builder of adult retirement communities. That's up 20 percent from a similar survey taken just two years ago.
Read the full article here.
The classic image of new retirees making a bee-line to Florida or the Sun Belt to live out their lives is sun-drenched comfort is increasingly a thing of the past.
Among U.S. workers age 55 and older, almost two-thirds -- 62 percent -- think that when they retire they will continue to live in their current state of residence, according to a survey by the Pulte Group, parent of Del Webb, a builder of adult retirement communities. That's up 20 percent from a similar survey taken just two years ago.
Read the full article here.
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Is this the end of the housing bust? Not so fast, says Shiller
As I wrote in the Weekend Investor cover story, `Is the Real-Estate Rebound for Real?,` this weekend, many indicators are pointing to a bottom forming in the housing market. New-home inventories are at historic lows. Home-builder sentiment has finally turned the corner. And finally, home prices have ticked up for four months in a row on a seasonally-adjusted basis.
All that might make it tempting to call the `all clear` once and for all. But one of the earliest experts to identify the real-estate bubble, Yale University professor Robert Shiller, isn`t convinced we`ve crossed into safe territory just yet.
Read the full article here.
As I wrote in the Weekend Investor cover story, `Is the Real-Estate Rebound for Real?,` this weekend, many indicators are pointing to a bottom forming in the housing market. New-home inventories are at historic lows. Home-builder sentiment has finally turned the corner. And finally, home prices have ticked up for four months in a row on a seasonally-adjusted basis.
All that might make it tempting to call the `all clear` once and for all. But one of the earliest experts to identify the real-estate bubble, Yale University professor Robert Shiller, isn`t convinced we`ve crossed into safe territory just yet.
Read the full article here.
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A major shift is happening in how people are thinkin about housing
Josh Brown of the Reformed Broker is one of the more skeptical, no-BS guys out there, so when he writes Housing Doubters Must Now Contend With Data we take notice.
From his post:
No one in their right mind would refer to the current trend in housing as a rip-snorting bull market - but to dismiss the amelioration out of misplaced loyalty to a long-held pessimistic outlook would be a mistake.
The typical housing permabear (yes, there is a such thing now) will frequently cite the "shadow inventory" of foreclosures that will swamp the market when it comes up for sale. They don't get it - it won't be coming to market at all. At least not until such time as the banks want to offer it. And now there are hungry buyers, negating that aforementioned stale thesis even further.
Read the full article here.
Josh Brown of the Reformed Broker is one of the more skeptical, no-BS guys out there, so when he writes Housing Doubters Must Now Contend With Data we take notice.
From his post:
No one in their right mind would refer to the current trend in housing as a rip-snorting bull market - but to dismiss the amelioration out of misplaced loyalty to a long-held pessimistic outlook would be a mistake.
The typical housing permabear (yes, there is a such thing now) will frequently cite the "shadow inventory" of foreclosures that will swamp the market when it comes up for sale. They don't get it - it won't be coming to market at all. At least not until such time as the banks want to offer it. And now there are hungry buyers, negating that aforementioned stale thesis even further.
Read the full article here.
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The housing market is booming all over the place
The latest Case-Shiller home price data is out and it beat analysts' expectations as home prices rose 0.67 percent versus the 0.3 percent rise which was expected.
Higher price data in recent months has led some -- like Business Insider deputy editor Joe Weisenthal -- to call a bottom in the housing market.
Major risks to such calls include rising foreclosure starts. Some experts like Gluskin Sheff chief economist David Rosenberg think the housing market has lower to go.
Read the full article here.
The latest Case-Shiller home price data is out and it beat analysts' expectations as home prices rose 0.67 percent versus the 0.3 percent rise which was expected.
Higher price data in recent months has led some -- like Business Insider deputy editor Joe Weisenthal -- to call a bottom in the housing market.
Major risks to such calls include rising foreclosure starts. Some experts like Gluskin Sheff chief economist David Rosenberg think the housing market has lower to go.
Read the full article here.
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Orders of heavy duty trucks have collapsed
Almost everything everyone owns in America has spent at least some time in a truck. As such, the health of the trucking industry is a pretty reliable indicator of the health of the economy.
In July, NAFTA Class 8 truck (basically heavy duty trucks) orders collapsed ` 12,900 new orders were booked for trucks, short of the consensus of analysts, who were expecting 16,000-17,000.
And it's not just seasonality that played a role. Nigel Coe, an equity analyst covering multi-industry stocks for Morgan Stanley, alerted clients in a recent note that "the large 23% drop to 12,900 was far greater than the 11% median decline observed for the June/July period since 1996, and that, to make matters worse, the disappointing July print "came on the back of a larger than normal seasonal step-down in June, when Class 8 orders fell 7% M/M to 16,690 ` worse than the typical 3% M/M decline."
Read the full article here.
Almost everything everyone owns in America has spent at least some time in a truck. As such, the health of the trucking industry is a pretty reliable indicator of the health of the economy.
In July, NAFTA Class 8 truck (basically heavy duty trucks) orders collapsed ` 12,900 new orders were booked for trucks, short of the consensus of analysts, who were expecting 16,000-17,000.
And it's not just seasonality that played a role. Nigel Coe, an equity analyst covering multi-industry stocks for Morgan Stanley, alerted clients in a recent note that "the large 23% drop to 12,900 was far greater than the 11% median decline observed for the June/July period since 1996, and that, to make matters worse, the disappointing July print "came on the back of a larger than normal seasonal step-down in June, when Class 8 orders fell 7% M/M to 16,690 ` worse than the typical 3% M/M decline."
Read the full article here.