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August 2009

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Carbon credits won`t work: economist

QUEBEC -- Carbon credits -- to package and trade offsets to greenhouse gas emissions -- won`t work, says McGill University economist Christopher Green.

"This cure could be worse than the disease," says Mr. Green, rejecting the argument of Premier Jean Charest, who wants the Montreal Exchange to be the carbon market for all of Canada.

As an alternative to Charest`s "cap and trade" proposal for carbon credits, Mr. Green proposes a carbon tax.

A carbon tax would cost less, he says, and would pay for "an energy-technology revolution," finding ways to use less carbon, or no carbon for industrial processes, transportation, heating and cooling.

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The myth of manufacturing decline

The 2009 recession has produced another round of hand-wringing over Canada`s declining manufacturing base. Weakness in high-profile sectors -- autos, forest products, telecom -- add to the already-entrenched idea that the heart of industrial Canada, its manufacturing base, has long been in the grip of a major long-term decline. Canada is being deindustrialized.

The idea of deindustrialization has been around for decades, manifested, for example, in the 1990s, with slogans about becoming a nation of hamburger flippers and call-centre operators. The howls of deindustrialization have grown in recent years, with calls for more government aid to manufacturing to offset losses suffered in the face of increasingly stiff foreign competition. "Canada`s manufacturing industry is in the midst of a uniquely terrible crisis," Jim Stanford of the Canadian Auto Workers wrote recently.

Now along comes Statistics Canada with a new analysis that essentially debunks much if not all of the deindustrialization claims as unfounded. John Baldwin and Ryan Macdonald, with Statscan`s economic analysis division, argue in a paper published this week that Canada`s manufacturing sector has not been in major decline. Indeed, in terms of volume of output, Canadian manufacturing production as a share of the economy has not changed much in almost half a century.

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Want-ad woes

As the worst global recession since the Second World War grinds on -- although the Bank of Canada has declared the downturn over in Canada -- workers are facing pay cuts, unpaid leave and layoffs. Labour strife has swelled. The wealth hit from battered investment portfolios and falling home prices is forcing consumers to adjust their expectations, too. Today is the fourth instalment of the Financial Post`s summer-long "Getting Real" series exploring the reality check now underway.

The global recession has done its share of damage to the Canadian job market, with nearly 370,000 employees shed from payrolls since last October. For workers lucky enough to keep their jobs, many have seen pay and benefits reduced.

But the job market and compensation packages will recover, partly due to a better economy, but also because of an aging population. Even those sectors hit hard in the recession know it.

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When will interest rates start to rise?

As the economy begins to creep out of its economic rut, the market has begun to speculate on when interest rates will rise. The Bank of Canada pledged in April to hold interest rates at 0.25% until the end of June, 2010. The move was designed to ease credit pressures on financial institutions and consumers as the recession intensified. However, the pledge -- an unconventional monetary policy tool used to keep short-term interest rates and mortgage rates low -- came with an exit clause. If price inflation begins to threaten the economy, the central bank could raise interest rates earlier. But will they? Two economists face off.

THE CASE AGAINST RISING RATES

CRAIG WRIGHT

Chief economist, RBC Capital Markets

The Canadian economy may be on the mend, but Mr. Wright said it will be some time before it can handle an increase in the benchmark interest rate and therefore the Bank of Canada will likely stick to its conditional pledge to keep the rate on hold until mid-2010.

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The Commodity Syndrome

If you read the news every day, you would swear there is a recession going on. But commodity prices are telling a different story.

From oil to copper to zinc, resources have staged a stunning rally off their bottoms early this year, with some of them effectively doubling in value.

In a recession it would seem logical that people would need fewer commodities, not more. And that is indeed the case. Despite some pick-up in the past few months, demand has been very weak in much of the world.

Yet prices continue to rally. Copper is back above US$2.50 a pound after bottoming out around US$1.30 last December. Oil kept its momentum above US$60 a barrel in July despite overflowing inventories. And other commodities like nickel and zinc, which were left for dead a few months ago, have staged dramatic recoveries.

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Canada`s office vacancy rate surges to 8.5 per cent … and still climbing: report

OTTAWA -- Vacancies in Canada`s office market have surged to 8.5 per cent and will climb toward levels not seen since the dot-com bust earlier this decade before they finally level out, commercial broker Avison Young said in a report Wednesday.

"The vacancy rate will definitely be trending up in the coming quarters," said Bill Argeropoulos, director of research at Avison Young. "We`re not sure if it will breach the recent high of 11.5 per cent in 2003, but we do see the vacancy perhaps breaching the 10-per-cent barrier in the coming quarters and perhaps into 2010, largely because of new supply coming into the market."

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Canadian bank system gets the balance right

THE US may have aspired to be a city on a hill, but its neighbour Canada has attracted more attention recently as a paradigm for creating and regulating a banking system that has been stable, and even profitable, through the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression.

Praise has come from many quarters, including Taoiseach Brian Cowen who has promised to create a new regulator that will "build on best international practice, similar to the Canadian model".

Canada`s reputation for fiscal conservatism may have been boring during boom times, but being boring has left the country`s banking system in a rare position of strength in the financial world.

"It has turned out that boring is good and an excellent attribute of a financial system," Jim Flaherty, Canada`s minister for finance, told European reporters on a visit to Canada this week.

Gordon Nixon, chief executive of Canada`s biggest bank, Royal Bank of Canada (RBC), prefers being described as "conservative from a risk perspective", and says the bank will stick to that model.

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Still no Sign of Economic Recovery in July Jobs Numbers as 45,000 Disappear

TORONTO — No real sign of recovery was apparent in dismal job numbers released Friday but, while they`ll certainly leave a bitter taste for some who read economic tea leaves, there was the small consolation that the statistics could have been worse.

Bucking predictions that the recession may have officially ended in July, Statistics Canada reported that Canada`s labour market shed another 45,000 jobs as more people struggled to find work. It was a terrible month for the tourism sector and youth employment fell sharply from one of the worst summer job markets in decades.

The unemployment rate stayed at 8.6 per cent as discouraged workers appeared to leave the labour market and were not counted in the monthly tally from Statistics Canada.

The news held little surprise for Finance Minister Jim Flaherty, who has sounded a more pessimistic note than many - including Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney - who have claimed to see signs of an economy on the mend.

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`Underwater` Mortgages to Hit 48%, Deutsche Bank Says

Aug. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Almost half of U.S. homeowners with a mortgage are likely to owe more than their properties are worth before the housing recession ends, Deutsche Bank AG said.

The percentage of "underwater" loans may rise to 48 percent, or 25 million homes, as prices drop through the first quarter of 2011, Karen Weaver and Ying Shen, analysts in New York at Deutsche Bank, wrote in a report today.

As of March 31, the share of homes mortgaged for more than their value was 26 percent, or about 14 million properties, according to Deutsche Bank. Further deterioration will depress consumer spending and boost defaults by borrowers who face unemployment, divorce, disability or other financial challenges, the securitization analysts said.


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Flaherty trying to tamp down `euphoria`

OTTAWA -- Canadian Finance Minister Jim Flaherty said on Friday he was trying to tamp down "euphoria" over the economy`s imminent recovery, saying there was still a long way to go to climb out of recession.

"It`s going to be a difficult year. I`ve been saying that, I try to calm the euphoria about `we`re out of a recession`," Mr.Flaherty told CTV television in an interview.

"We are stabilized, and there are some good signs, but it`s still a recession, and we still have to work our way out of it," he said.

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Job data to tell real story on recovery

OTTAWA -- The recession may be grinding to an end, but proof recovery is at hand will depend for the moment on next week`s few but vital data releases on employment in Canada and the U.S.

"The key one is employment," said CIBC World Markets senior economist Avery Shenfeld. "It is the ultimate missing link between where we are a real economic recovery."

"We don`t necessarily need to see job gains, but it is critical that we start to see much lighter job losses."

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Business Outlook: A Second-Half Recovery In U.S. Could Be Fleeting

Output may rise to slow inventory depletion, but gains won`t be sustainable without stronger consumer spending. Trouble is, job markets remain weak

The worst recession since the 1930s is drawing to a close. The sharp contraction in the economy appears to have moderated notably in the second quarter, and a return to growth in the third quarter is now widely expected. Unfortunately, it won`t feel much like a recovery, because growth in the second half likely will be too puny to generate enough jobs to make a dent in the unemployment rate. There is also a more important issue: Will the upturn last?

The question arises because the early stage of the recovery is going to be production-led, not demand-led. Businesses have slashed output so far below the level of overall spending that some increased production will be needed just to slow the overly rapid depletion of inventories. That boost to output will be necessary even without much growth in demand. And there`s the rub. To keep the production rebound—and the recovery—going into 2010, overall spending will have to pick up, and that`s the big uncertainty given the headwinds facing consumers.


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Lorne Gunter: The scam we call `Employment Insurance`

There is almost nothing about Canada`s Employment Insurance (EI) program that is as it appears. Even its name is a dodge.

The plan does not insure against employment; that would be absurd. It insures against unemployment. Yet, in keeping with the disingenuous nature of the program, the name was changed to EI (from Unemployment Insurance) more than a decade ago in the naive hope that somehow the superficial switch in branding would encourage beneficiaries to find and keep jobs.

Nor can it rightly be called "insurance" -- at least, not in the sense in which that word is normally used. In regions where unemployment is chronically high, premiums are no higher than in regions where workers are unlikely ever to claim benefits. In fact, in high-unemployment regions, workers can work for such short periods before qualifying that they often pay only a few hundred dollars in premiums before qualifying for thousands in benefits.

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`Darkest hour` passed: Economists

The number of Canadians tossed into bankruptcy by the economic downturn rose sharply in May, yet a strong rebound in construction and higher levels of business spending suggest that the "darkest hour" of the recession has passed, economists say.

For those shunted into the ranks of the insolvent, it may be cold comfort, but the headline number -- a 34.4% surge in personal bankruptcies -- is in fact far below levels recorded in previous recessions.

Moreover, while consumer bankruptcies have risen, business bankruptcies are actually on the decline, falling more than 16% from a year ago.

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Housing Starts Drop Unexpectedly

OTTAWA -- Housing starts in Canada declined unexpectedly in July, falling to an annualized rate of 132,100 in July from 137,800 in June, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp said Tuesday.

Economists had been calling for a seasonally adjusted rate of 145,000 new home starts.

The housing agency blamed the volatile multiple starts segment for the decline.

"This was a fairly disappointing report, and it suggests that the buoyancy that has been seen in the past two months in this segment of the housing market hasn`t gained much traction, clouding an otherwise positive tone in Canadian housing market activity," said TD Securities economic strategist Millan Mulraine.

"Even so, our bias remains for increased housing market activity in the near terms as the combination of low mortgage rates, relatively attractive home prices and the various tax incentives continue to spur Canadian housing market activity."

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Flaherty calls Economic signs Encouraging, Tentative

BEIJING -- Canadian Finance Minister Jim Flaherty on Wednesday described recent positive economic signs as encouraging but tentative.

Speaking to reporters after three days of meetings in Beijing, Flaherty said he welcomed Chinese direct investment in Canada but had not been made aware that China Investment Corp. was considering other big forays into Canada.

CIC, China`s $300-billion sovereign wealth fund, agreed last month to acquire a 17.2% equity stake in Canadian miner Teck Resources for $1.74-billion.

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Albertan Women Lead $75m Lawsuit

Two Alberta women are leading a $75-million class-action lawsuit on behalf of as many as 3,000 investors seeking to recover tens of millions of dollars put into property deals.

Jennifer Lofgren of Calgary and Lucia de Wet of Pincher Creek are spearheading the suit, which seeks to recover funds put into projects in Alberta, British Columbia, Ontario and Hawaii during the past four years.

The lawsuit names Jeanette Cleone Couch, the named officer and director of Shire International Real Estate, plus several other project companies as defendants.

A statement of claim filed at Calgary`s Court of Queen`s Bench alleges that between 2005 and 2009, "the defendants illegally solicited funds from hundreds or thousands of investors in connection with approximately 10 purported real estate development projects, none of which was genuine or as represented.

"In total, the defendants raised approximately $75-million in connection with the projects, none of which ever came to fruition or produced any meaningful returns to investors."

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Trade Deficit Narrows on Rise in Energy Exports

OTTAWA -- Canada`s trade deficit with the world fell more than expected in June, to $55-million from $1.1-billion in May, Statistics Canada reported Wednesday.

Economists had forecast a trade deficit of $700-million.

The federal agency attributed the change to a substantial rise in exports of energy products, which helped lift the country`s exports 2.3% to just under $29.3-billion, ending three months of declines.

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New Home Prices continue to slide

OTTAWA -- New home prices in Canada fell for the ninth straight month in June despite predictions the slide would finally come to an end, Statistics Canada said Wednesday.

Prices declined by 0.2% in June, after a 0.1% decline in May, with the decline again the result of falling values in Western Canada.

Economists had forecast prices would remain flat for the month.

"On balance, when combined with the disappointing housing starts report released yesterday, this report provided further confirmation on the dichotomy between the new and existing homes markets in Canada," said TD Securities economics strategist Millan Mulraine, referring to the fall in July housing starts reported Tuesday by Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation.

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