2013 Real Estate Predictions Contest

[bizaro86]

Well 2013 is off to a great start, (Closed 2 properties so far this year!) which means it's time for the annual prediction contest. Put your answers in a reply below, and be sure to answer the tiebreaker, as last year's winner was decided on that basis after one of the tied entrants didn't put a response.



1) How many housing starts will CMHC report for 2013? (Approximately 193,000 in 2012)

a)150,000 or less

b) 150,001-200,000

c)200,001-250,000

d)250,001 or more



2) At the end of the year, what will the political situation be?

a) Assad still President of Syria, Greece remains in the Euro

b) Assad not President of Syria, Greece remains in the Euro

c) Assad still President of Syria, Greece leaves the Euro

d) Assad not President of Syria, Greece leaves the Euro





3) At the end of the year, will the Canada-US exchange rate be:

(determined from B.o.C. data here on Dec 31, 2013: http://www.bankofcanada.ca/en/rates/exchange.html)

a) 1 CAD is less than or equal to $0.95 USD

b) 1 CAD is between $0.95 and and $1.00 USD

c) 1 CAD is between $1.00 and $1.05 USD

d) 1 CAD is greater than or equal to $1.05



4) At the end of the year, the Bank of Canada overnight target rate will be (Currently 1.00%)

a) 1.00% or less

b) 1.01%-1.75%

c) 1.76%-2.5%

d) 2.51% or more



5) What will the change of the Teranet Composite 11 House Price Index be for November 2013 (I picked November so we could still have a winner by January). The year over year number will be used, so predict the change from Nov 2012-Nov 2013.

a) Decline of 2.0% or greater

b) Decline of 1.99% to increase of 1.99%

c) Increase of 2.0% to increase 5.99%

d) Increase of 6.0% to increase of 9.99%

e) Increase of 10.0% or greater



6) The S&P/TSX Composite index is currently at 12,779. It's value at the end of the year will be:

a) 11,500 or less

b) 11,501 to 12,500

c) 12,501 to 13,500

d) 13,501 to 14,500

e) 14,501 or greater



Tiebreaker: Vancouver had a decrease in it's Teranet index price year over year to November 2012. What will be it's price change year over year to November 2013?



I had a personal best 3 correct answers in 2012, but was off on the tiebreaker by about 12 percentage points, so I'll be looking to better that result this year. Invaluable bragging rights to the winner, so fill your entry in now. Deadline is January 31st, so feel free to edit your predictions until then.



Warmest regards,

Michael

 

[bizaro86]

Since I get to pick the questions, it's only fair I go first at answering them. (Although I wouldn't go off my answers, I'm 0/4 at winning this annual contest)



1. C --Housing starts are picking up, 2013 should be a good year, especially for multi's in the west

2. B --Assad will be gone, but the ECB will keep the bailouts going

3. C --Canadian dollar stays at par

4. A -- Continued turmoil in EU/US forces BOC to stay with low rates. Carney's replacement chooses to not make waves

5. C -- Goldilocks market, not too hot, not too cold.

6. D -- Bit more of a gain to come, possibly led by recovery in materials stocks.



Tiebreaker 0.0% change in Vancouver prices



Regards,



Michael

 

[Sherilynn]

c

b

c

b

c

c

+2%

 

[jonathanb]

b

b

c

a

a

b

-3%

 

[bizaro86]

Just a quick reminder to put your predictions in now, as we're closing off entries tomorrow.



Michael