2011 Real Estate Survey/Predictions and a Contest

[bizaro86]

I thought with 2011 getting under way and Godfried's prediction thread going gangbusters, that a bit of a friendly constest might be in order. I propose the following list of questions be answered, and we'll come back to the thread at the end of the year to see who gets the all important bragging rights!



1) Will the minimum downpayment for a personal residence be:

a) 5% or less

b) 6-9%

c) 10%

d) 11% or more



2) How many housing starts will CMHC report for 2011?

a)150,000 or less

b) 150,001-200,000

c)200,001-250,000

d)250,001 or more



3) At the end of the year, what will the Federal Government look like?

a) No election, Conservative government

b) No election, other government (coalition, Liberal, etc)

c) Election held, Conservative minority

d) Election held, Conservative majority

e) Election held, Non-Conservative gov't (coalition, Liberal, etc)



4) At the end of the year, will the Canada-US exchange rate be:

(determined from B.o.C. data here on Dec 31: http://www.bankofcanada.ca/en/rates/exchange.html)

a) 1 CAD is less than or equal to $0.95 USD

b) 1 CAD is between $0.95 and and $1.00 USD

c) 1 CAD is between $1.00 and $1.05 USD

d) 1 CAD is greater than or equal to $1.05



5) At the end of the year, the Bank of Canada overnight target rate will be (Currently 1.00%)

a) 1.00% or less

b) 1.01%-1.75%

c) 1.76%-2.5%

d) 2.51% or more



In the case of a tie, the tiebreaker will be: How many posts have been made to myreinspace.com, as determined by the board counter at the bottom of the page by the end of 2011? (Currently 100,214 posts, congratulations on exceeding 100,000 posts myreinspace!)



Best wishes to all for 2011!

 

[bizaro86]

I figure if I'm going to propose a contest, I should at least enter:



1) a

2) c

3) a

4) b

5) b

tiebreaker: 140,376



I'd like to further suggest a deadline for entries of Sunday January 29th, as measured by the time stamp on the post.

 

[Thomas Beyer]

1 a - 5%

2 c - 200 to 250 (although I have no clue really)

3 a - no election

4 c - between 1.00 and 1.05

5 c - between 1.76% and 2.5%

 

[housingrental]

5) D

No clue on others

will guess 1B) or 1C) though

 

[RandyDalton]

Hi all,



1) a

2) No idea but will go with b

3) c

4) b

5) b

tiebreaker...107,431



Regards...Randy D.

R&B Properties

 

[jarrettvaughan]

1) B

2) B

3) A

4) D

5) B

tiebreaker...130,000

 

[EdRenkema]

Adam 5 - d ???

End of the yr not the end of the decade...

 

[ThomasLorini]

Sounds like fun...



1) c

2) b

3) a

4) b

5) b



tiebreaker: 108,950



Thomas

 

[housingrental]

I guess we will see

[quote user=EdRenkema]Adam 5 - d ???

End of the yr not the end of the decade...

 

[bizaro86]

I've compiled the answers, and have them below.



1) a) The minimum downpayment for a personal residence is still 5%

2) b) CMHC hasn't reported December housing starts yet, but for January to November the number is 158,427, so I very much doubt it'll make it over 200k for the year.

3) d) A conservative majority was elected

4) b) The Canadian dollar closed the year at 98.33 cents US.

5) a) The bank of Canada target rate is 1.00%



I will go through the answers and post the winner shortly.



Regards,



Michael

 

[bizaro86]

With 3 of the 5 questions answered correctly, the winner is RandyDalton.



The next closest predictors got 2 of the 5 right, so the tiebreaker wasn't necessary.



Also interesting, nobody correctly predicted the election, or the Bank of Canada rates.



I will post a version for 2012 sometime today, so come back and put your answers!



Michael

 

[eleven1]

good poll :



1) b

2)a

3)a

4)b

5)b

 

[bizaro86]

[quote user=eleven1]good poll :



1) b

2)a

3)a

4)b

5)b




These questions were from last year, I've put up another one for this year (thread title has 2012 in it) if you'd like to put in a prediction there.



Regards,



Michael