[quote user=EdRenkema]I've been an active investor in cashflowing RE since 2007, there is no question in my mind that I am and will do incredibly better doing that rather than buying gold. I don't have to go into detail, I'll leave that to the bean counters and techies out there (where is Godfried Wasser
My point is a rental property is a small business, one does not buy & run a business to create appreciation value, a business is run on cash flow. I could not have started from virtually nothing by buying gold or stocks for that matter (especially not me)
First of all, I do analyze investment concepts to better understand what I am doing. As such, trying define risk or the difference between 'speculation and investing' is essential. Without going into details, I can assure you that I am far from only a 'theoretical investor' although I like to count my beans
Secondly, it is nonsense to state that one does not run a business to create appreciation value. We create a business to make money and nobody cares too much about whether the profits are due to appreciation or due to positive cash flow. That is pretty 'practical' I would say.
I agree with Jhonsu that when buying units, one at a time, it is tough to make your profits only from cashflow. Even if positive, the bulk of the profits is often from leveraged appreciation and mortgage paydown. It is fine with me, if you only consider your positive cashflow as profit. If you don't want the rest, then feel free to forward it to me
This discussion is not necessarily about 'speculation vs investment' it is about risk and risk management. In those terms, appreciation of real estate is over the longterm as close to a given as you can get in the investment world - just as it is with stocks. What is less certain is how much appreciation - is it 3%, 4% or 6% per year? Long term appreciation charts may give you an idea about your area's historical performance. (scenario 1)
If you buy a condo or house that has still to be build and you use a small down payment and high leverage; your risk level would be high. If you intend to sell right upon completion of construction withing in one or 2 years then the risk of not getting value appreciation is likely very high. To top it off, if you have no cash flow as with a normal rental property your risk may become excessive. So what are the chances of making money here in the end? 1 in 2 or 1 in 10? Or does it approach the odds of winning in the lottery? (scenario 2).
Most people would consider the second scenario extremely risky and 'speculative', while most investors would consider the first scenario as a well thought out investment. So in my opinion, speculation has nothing to do with the source of your profits but more with the odds of making money (or at least recovering your initial investment). Where to place the boundary between investing and speculation remains to be seen. Personally, I would think odds of losing money once in 10 cases is acceptable. If the promised returns are high, say ROIs of 20% per year, I might take on as much as 1 in 5 odds. But if it get 1 in four or even worse, I would consider it too risky - too speculative - and walk away.
What risks do you take?