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Real Estate Cycle

Willyboy

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Aug 19, 2016
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I just went through "the secrets of real estate cycles in Canada" book and in my opinion it's a must for every real estate investor.
However I can't seem to be able to analyze what stage of the cycle most major cities and towns are at and where they will be in say 10 to 15 years.
So if anyone of you think they have a strong understanding of the cycle and would like to shed some light I will be more than happy to listen to.
More specifically I was trying to see where Alberta, Ontario and BC stand today and what the situation be like in the future.

where do you see these three provinces in terms of real estate cycle in 10 to 15 years? I mean in say 10 years from now do you think Alberta will have 20%, 30%, 50%, 100% or whatever appreciation or maybe level off or even depreciate according to the cycle?

What about Ontario and BC as well? Appreciate and if yes how much, level off or depreciate.

I'm just curious not only because as an investor I would like to get educated as much as I can in a positive way but also because when I read the book I started looking at historical data for the different cities for the last 50 to 60 years and found out what's in the book is correct. As an example I came across a boom in Toronto that peaked in 1989 than busted until 1996 than boomed again till our current day and also noticed the same thing in Alberta and BC but with different time frames and that left me wondering about what could happen in the next decade or so in the provinces.
 

Thomas Beyer

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BC and ON are (perpetual) late summer or fall.

AB is spring.

The cycle is a guideline. Don't get to hung up on it. Perhaps wait for a crash in 2038, then buy ?

There are always reason why waiting is a good idea, like having no kids. There is never a perfect time !

2010 would have been better to buy than today - way better. 2004 too. or 1998. Or 1990. Or 1970. or 1945. or 1867. The next best time to buy is NOW.
 

mynick

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Nov 22, 2016
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2010 would have been better to buy than today - way better. 2004 too. or 1998. Or 1990. Or 1970. or 1945. or 1867. The next best time to buy is NOW.
So true! But I still think in any market, anywhere, there are still some good deals waiting for you. For some people, even they bought at the bottom, it would not be a good deal.
 

Matt Crowley

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Dec 14, 2013
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Why are prices going to appreciate at all? Because prices always go up?

Some better questions:
- How much has low, zero & negative interest rates inflated the real estate market?
- How much more can people possibly pay for rent or mortgages? Check out STIR (Shelter to Income Ratio) in the community. How much more can people actually afford to pay on housing? Compare to survey of household spending. So if people can't pay any more, what about household formation growth ie. more incomes living in a house to pay for a higher rent?
- Are real wages going to increase? I think decrease to flat in most of Canada.
- What is the P/E multiple of the market you want to invest in? If it is >25 then the payback of the mortgage is less than the asset, you have some very serious questions to ask yourself about growth
- What is the lending environment today? Banks want to lend more money at lower interest rates with CMHC saying no, let's lock up equity, reduce borrowing ability, increase market friction by increasing CMHC fees on mortgage, increase % down above $500k
- How are low interest rates going to unwind if we return to more normal interest rates or is this possible any more? Can people afford to pay down the mortgages on their homes or at renewal will they bump up their amortization to keep the payments steady?

...I see all the signs of a cooling market with central bank very concerned about depreciating values, strained household spending. Obviously there is no "Canadian market" and there is opportunity. But imagining that growth is going to be achieved by further yield compression is wrong. Asset value growth in this deflationary-symptomed economy is going to be driven by operating performance.
 

Marty Gordon

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Jul 12, 2016
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Its really to broad to speak on a provincial level. Focus on cities and neighbourhoods within those cities. For example... Guelph ontario saw 15% appreciation average last year, but niagara falls ontario grew very little. Around 3% i think. If i drive 1 hr north, properties are seeing almost no growth at all. Dont get too caught up on blankey statements that many bigshots like to make. Find a city showing strong growth. University cities are a really safe bet. There will be high employment rates among youth in those cities and lower crime per capita. Cities with 100,000 population and universities.

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Marty Gordon

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Jul 12, 2016
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Dude, im no big shot. And i wasnt speaking about anything you said. My comments arent blanket statements they are specific. But whatever. Some people like to be negative no matter what.

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