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RBC Economic Research - October 2018

Tina Myrvang

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Nov 15, 2010
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Highlights of the report:
The mortgage stress test and higher interest rates no doubt were still top-of-mind for home buyers in October. Already-soft home resales edged down further by 1.6% from September. The annual rate of increase in benchmark prices was unchanged at 2.3%.
More than half of local markets saw a monthly decline in resale activity, including Toronto, Montreal, Halifax, Calgary and Edmonton. Vancouver and Winnipeg bucked the trend with modest increases, though in the case of Vancouver the number of transactions remained near five-year lows.
After rising in the previous two months, new listings fell 1.1% across Canada, which kept the majority of local markets in balance. Montreal was among the few markets where sellers had the upper hand in setting prices.
Vancouver’s benchmark price was up only 1.0% from a year ago, a five-year low point. More buying options have emerged for fewer buyers in the past year—especially in the detached home segment.
In October, annual price increases were strongest in Victoria (8.5%), Hamilton (6.8%), Ottawa (6.6%) and Montreal (6.3%). The increase in Toronto’s benchmark price accelerated slightly to a rate of 2.6% from 2.0% in September.
Our view is that the prevailing softness in Canada’s housing market is the new norm—at least for a while. We expect overall activity to stay in a holding pattern over the coming year and price gains to be limited.
Link to the full report
To view, print and download the new report, click on the following link:
http://www.rbc.com/economics/economic-reports/pdf/canadian-housing/housespecial-nov18.pdf
 
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