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October 2010 Canadian Economic Fundamentals

Ally

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News articles for October 2010.
 

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Hard-fought deal could change the way houses are bought and sold

House sellers and buyers could see lower fees and have more choice in how they sell and buy because of an agreement between the federal Competition Bureau and the real estate industry.

If the deal is ratified by members of the Canadian Real Estate Association in late October, sellers will be able to hire an agent to add their property to the Multiple Listing Service for a fee and, if they choose, conduct the rest of the sale on their own.

Currently, anyone using the MLS database in Canada needs to employ a real estate agent through the entire selling process -- from inspecting the property and posting the listing to receiving and advising on offers and sharing in compensation resulting from the listing.

The vast majority of residential deals involve MLS. Those deals, in turn, generate millions of dollars in commissions for the real estate agents who use MLS.

Under the agreement, the Canadian Real Estate association "will eliminate its ability to adopt anti-competitive rules that discriminate against real estate agents who are hired by consumers only to list or merely `post` a residential property on the MLS," the Competition Bureau said in a statement.

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The `burbs: Hell on wheels

Met a friend the other day who said he`d had enough of the never-ending lines of automobiles, the constant congestion, the stop-and-go traffic, the bonehead plays executed by badly trained drivers. He couldn`t take it any more. He`d fought the urge for years but now he had to escape the madness and find a more manageable motoring scene.

He was moving downtown.

Yep, that`s right. Downtown.

Such a switch would have been unthinkable a few decades ago. The suburbs were an auto-friendly oasis. Hell, they existed because of the automobile. The ability to drive everywhere, to work, to the store, to the hockey rink, to the video store, to the bathroom, was the reason sleeper communities sprang up. What`s the first thing the average suburbanite did after having his morning coffee, bacon and eggs? Put on his porkpie hat and got in his car and took a pleasant drive on the "freeway."

That was then. Today, the suburbs are home to some of the worst driving conditions on the planet and it`s as bad, if not worse, than you find downtown.

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Tenants with pets should be considered a safe bet

Not pets allowed! It`s a common restriction noted on rental listings but does it really have any teeth in Ontario, the most hospitable of all provinces for pets to live in? Not really, and in fact some property managers feel renters with cats or dogs don`t necessarily pose a higher risk for landlords — in fact some see pet ownership as an indication they may have landed a more responsible tenant.

For the most part, landlords say "no pets allowed" clauses are stipulated in rental agreements in an attempt to avoid noisy, barking dogs that may disturb other tenants, or pets who do can do damage to units or cause problems for other tenants who may have allergies.

But some jurisdictions are trying to encourage landlords to rent to pet owners by allowing them to charge damage deposits specifically related to pet owners. As of Sept. 1, people renting apartments and homes in the Northwest Territories are adjusting to changes to the Residential Tenancies Act in that area.

Under the amended legislation, landlords will be allowed to impose a pet security deposit of up to a half-month`s rent. And last spring Manitoba introduced the same allowance, in addition to any existing security deposit a landlord might ask for upon signing a tenancy agreement

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CPP adds to its Real Estate holdings

The Canada Pension Plan Investment Board announced Monday it is taking full ownership of six shopping centres in British Columbia and Ontario, and a 90 per cent interest in two malls in Quebec for a total investment of $335.5 million.

Among the deals is the $113.5-million purchase of the Hillside Centre in Victoria, B.C., from the Ontario Pension Board, the pension plan for Ontario public employees.

The CPPIB has also paid $222 million to private real estate firm Osmington Inc. to increase its interest in a portfolio of seven other malls. It will hold a 100 per cent stake in five of them and a 90 per cent interest in two others.

The investment board made a total equity investment of $230.5 million and assumed $105 million in debt for a total purchase price of $335.5 million.

It wanted to seize the opportunity to invest in quality regional malls in prime markets, which seldom come on the market, said Peter Ballon, CPPIB`s head of real estate investments for the Americas

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Consider small claims court for real estate disputes

I am often asked what buyers can do when they find unwelcome surprises after closing. While it is easy to suggest bringing a lawsuit, the fact remains that the legal costs to litigate anything are beyond the means of most buyers.

However, as a result of the increase in the Small Claims Court in Ontario to $25,000 on Jan. 1, 2010, it is possible for most disputes to be resolved using this process. However, it is important that you understand the rules of Small Claims Court before proceeding.

Even if you win your case in Small Claims Court, there is no guarantee that you will ever collect your money. If the other party has no money, bank account or job, there may be very little you can do with any judgment. As such, before you even consider starting a lawsuit in Small Claims Court, make sure that there is a reasonable chance of collecting your money if you do win.

Although you can use a lawyer to represent you, many people use paralegals who are familiar with the process but charge a much lower fee. You can find a lawyer or paralegal at through the Law Society of Upper Canada. However, you can choose to represent yourself. If you do decide to represent yourself, you should still consider getting legal advice in advance as to your chances of success and the documentation that you will need to assist in proving your case.

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Comission-free real estate network launches in Canada

A new commission-free real estate network that claims to be the largest in Canada launched on Tuesday.

Bytheowner.com, which combines five commission-free real estate companies, went online with a listing of more than 12,000 properties for sale across Canada.

"We recently finished standardizing and optimizing the websites," said Bytheowner.com general manager Martin Rygiel. "That was our first step in creating the network. The second step involves analyzing our ways of doing business, as we would like to implement the best practices in each of these companies."

The five companies part of the network include ComFree in Alberta, Skhomes4sale.com in Saskatchewan, ComFree in Manitoba and PrivateRealEstate in Ontario (which is under the ownership of ByTheOwner.com/Duproprio.com in Quebec).

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Home-ownership costs continuing to climb despite slowing activity: RBC

The cost of owning a home in Canada rose for the fourth consecutive quarter despite the slowdown in the resale market, according to a housing report released Monday by RBC Economics Research.

"Higher mortgage rates in tandem with a further appreciation in home prices boosted the monthly costs associated with carrying a mortgage on a typical home," said RBC senior economist Robert Hogue. "This extended the deteriorating trend in affordability since the middle of last year."

But despite the downturn, he said affordability remained "within a safe range."

The RBC Housing Affordability Measure calculates the amount of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a home.

An affordability reading of 50 per cent means that home ownership costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50 per cent of a typical household`s monthly pre-tax income.

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Pheonix an oasis for Canadians in hunt for homes

As a cop, Diane Olson once patrolled the gritty streets of Winnipeg, her hometown.

But after marrying an American citizen, she relocated to sunny Phoenix in the late 1990s, where she became a realtor.

It proved to be a prescient move. A decade later, Olson heads one of the busiest residential real estate offices in the desert state, with a staff of 22 people.

By focusing her marketing efforts on prospective Canadian buyers -- including a visit to Edmonton on Monday, followed by stops in Red Deer and Calgary later next week -- Olson has parlayed the biggest meltdown in U.S. housing market history into a booming business.

Ironically, it wasn`t really planned. It just happened naturally. Although Olson grew up in a real estate family -- her father and brother are both developers -- her success evolved out of her extensive network of friends and family contacts in Winnipeg.

"When the Phoenix housing market started crashing (in late 2006), my phone began ringing. My friends, my brother`s friends, my dad`s friends, they were all saying: `Hey, can you help me get a house in Arizona?` " Olson recalls.

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Poster child for oil sands

Drew Zieglgansberger politely shows off as he tours visitors around Cenovus Energy Inc.` s Christina Lake oil sands project, an operation the industry believes will define the future of energy developments in northern Alberta.

He challenges them to spot seismic lines that cut never-ending swaths out of boreal forest, which are there but harder to spot from the ground now that their paths are jagged and narrower than in the past. He boasts how the wooden mats his company uses for machinery roads when installing pipelines reduce environmental destruction. He points out dirt bridges that serve as wildlife crossings built over suspended snakes of pipeline.

Christina Lake, after all, is essentially a drilling project, rather than a strip mine.

"Fundamentally, we should be able to reclaim [the disturbed natural environment] sooner," said Mr. Zieglgansberger, the vice-president in charge of Christina Lake. The 35-year-old started in the oil-and-gas industry as a roughneck, the bottom rung of the energy hierarchy, and is now in charge of one of Canada`s premier oil sands operations.

Without doubt, the oil sands project here, 120 kilo-metres south of Fort McMurray, is a visual victory for the industry. It looks nothing like the giant eyesores that are the oil sands open-pit mining operations, so often held up by green groups as proof of all that is wrong with the huge developments. At Christina Lake, for example, pipes replace the enormous trucks and diggers used in the oil sands open pits; the pristine forests are sliced by seismic lines and small patches of clear-cutting, rather than being replaced by massive strip mines; and as for the toxic tailings ponds, there are none and never will be.

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Flaherty may lift 2010 Canada revenue forecast in budget update

OTTAWA — Canadian Finance Minister Jim Flaherty`s next budget update may increase forecasts for 2010 revenue, giving the governing Conservatives scope to pay for additional stimulus measures.

Canada`s economy will expand 3% this year, according to a Bloomberg survey of 13 of the 14 forecasters that Flaherty consults for the fiscal update. That`s up from a 2.6% forecast in the March budget and would produce about US$20-billion more in output than earlier projected.

Faster growth this year may help Prime Minister Stephen Harper maintain efforts to shift his focus to eliminating the deficit, even as pressure grows from businesses and lawmakers for additional stimulus. Flaherty last week scaled back his plan to raise employment insurance premiums next year, citing concerns about a fragile recovery.

"I suspect that`s at least part of the reason they decided to scale back the EI increase because they did realize this year`s finances are on a better-than-expected track," said Doug Porter, deputy chief economist at BMO Capital Markets in Toronto.

Any fiscal leeway will be limited, though, as growth slows in coming years, economists said.

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Canadians less cheery about economy: RBC survey

TORONTO (Reuters) - Consumer confidence in Canada has dropped "significantly" in the past three months, reflecting concerns about the pace of the global economic recovery, a survey released by Royal Bank of Canada showed on Friday.

The RBC Canadian Consumer Outlook Index fell 14 points to 94 points, driven by declines in all three of its sub-indexes.

Sixty percent of survey respondents think the overall economic outlook is good, but sentiment is down seven points from last quarter. Job anxiety is slightly higher from last quarter, but still below its peak levels in November 2009, results showed.

About 46 percent of Canadians think that the national economy will improve next year, down nine points from three months ago.

"The uncertain and uneven global economic outlook has not gone unnoticed by consumers, translating to heightened anxiety and weaker confidence," said Craig Wright, chief economist at RBC.

The results come as a Conference Board of Canada index released this week showed consumer confidence in Canada slipped for the fourth consecutive month in September, pushed down by the slowing pace of the economic recovery.

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Retailers see 5% sales boost

Retailers should see a sales boost of 5% in Canada this year with a robust jump of 9.4% in December compared with a year ago, according to a new forecast.

December sales excluding automobiles should top $33 billion and 2010 sales will surpass $392-billion, according to the Colliers International`s 2010 Fall Retail Report.

British Columbia is expected to lead the charge in terms of retail sales growth excluding gasoline with a 6.7% rise, followed by P.E.I. 6.6% and Nova Scotia 5.8%. By category, general merchandise stores are expected to reap the benefits, with 16.7% growth, followed by clothing and accessory stores at 15.1% and building equipment and garden supply stores, which will make a comeback from post-recession struggle with 10.3% growth over 2009.

Colliers says the healthy growth will spur further development and investment in retail real estate by U.S. retail chains looking to expand.

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Mortgage tightening in works: Source

The federal government is once again looking at tightening rules in the Canadian mortgage market, says a source close to the situation.

Finance officials are set to meet in Ottawa today with some of the country`s leading economists for pre-budget discussions and the subject of whether to tighten housing regulations may come up.

Much of the chatter about changing the mortgage rules seems to stem from comments made by the Bank of Canada governor, who last week warned that consumer borrowing could not continue at its present clip.

"Canadian household balance sheets are becoming increasingly stretched," said Mark Carney, who issued a warning to legislators about taking steps to contain the growth of personal debt. "Historically low policy rates, even if appropriate to achieve the inflation target, create their own risks."

A spokesman for the Finance Minister said toughening existing rules on mortgage eligibility is not on the agenda today when Jim Flaherty meets with economists. The spokesman added the government has already addressed the real estate sector in initiatives introduced this year.

But Craig Alexander, chief economist with TD Bank Financial Group, said while he hasn`t heard specific talk about changes to mortgage rules, he could see it happening if the market heated up again.

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Competition watchdog, realtors reach a deal

In a development that could drastically change the way Canadians buy and sell their homes, the real estate industry has reached a landmark agreement with federal competition authorities.

The legally binding deal will allow for home sellers to pay for only those services they want from their real estate agents. Previously, under the rules established by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), consumers had to opt for an entire slate of services, a practice the Competition Bureau deemed anticompetitive.

"Since challenging CREA`s rules, the Bureau`s goal has always been to achieve a long-term solution that would strengthen competition in the residential real estate brokerage services market," Melanie Aitken, commissioner of competition, said in a release.

The deal caps off more than four years of feuding between the industry and the federal watchdog.

In February, the Competition Bureau formally challenged CREA`s practices, claiming they "limit consumer choice" and prevent real estate agents from offering lower cost services to customers.

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Commission-free real estate firms join forces

EDMONTON - Edmonton`s ComFree and other real estate companies launched a commission-free sales network on Tuesday that claims to be the largest in Canada.

ByTheOwner.com, which combines five commission-free real estate companies, went online with a listing of more than 12,000 properties for sale across Canada.

"We offer a genuine alternative to the services of real estate agents at a lower cost," said Martin Rygiel, general manager of Bytheowner.com.

"This is a growing trend we see as the wave of the future for real estate."

The five companies included in the network are ComFree in Alberta and Manitoba, Skhomes4sale.comin Saskatchewan and PrivateRealEstate in Ontario -- under the ownership of ByTheOwner.com/Duproprio.com in Quebec.

"When we combine the transactions done through the five companies that now make up our network, we`ve helped people sell more than 85,000 properties," Rygiel said. "For our customers, this means they`ve saved more than $1 billion in commissions."

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Suncor `turns corner` on tailings

Standing on the lip of Suncor Energy`s Millennium mine, the vista can take your breath away.

Fifty to 100 metres below, seven giant shovels positioned around the gaping, 15-square-kilometre pit fill a parade of 400-tonne trucks, each carrying the equivalent of 200 barrels of bitumen.

It`s the kind of scene that makes dramatic photos: a surface mine before reclamation, a barren, rocky landscape interlaced with haul roads.

And it`s an example of the image that shocked Hollywood director James Cameron into calling the oilsands a "black eye" on Canada`s environmental record before his trip to the area this week.

But starting next year, the scene will begin to change as a river of sand begins to fill the mine from the outer circle, a virtual doughnut of material moving toward the centre.

"We want to put the sand back in the pit as we go. The mine will become a sand dump, with the (fine clay tailings) running off into a catchment basin and pumped out," said Anne Marie Toutant, Suncor`s vice-president of mining and reclamation.

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The oil sands win a convert

Kudos to Hollywood uber-director James Cameron for demonstrating this week that he`s not your average Tinsel Town eco airhead. Mr. Cameron went to the Alberta oilsands pumped with environmental passion, but proved willing to learn something.

It was certainly a bit embarrassing to see Ed Stelmach rushing back from Ottawa for an audience with the director of Avatar and The Terminator, but, as the Alberta Premier pointed out, whether we like it or not, figures such as Mr. Cameron have extraordinary clout.

The Canadian-born Mr. Cameron, who is way more scientifically savvy than most celebrity poseurs, toured both open pit and in situ developments, and spoke with numerous members of the industry. He also visited Fort Chipewyan, a native settlement that activists say has been poisoned by the industry. Aboriginal leaders had clearly hoped they might use Mr. Cameron for their main ancestral priority -- fundraising -- but he refused to be sucked into one aboriginal leader`s parroted suggestion that the oilsands were a "curse."

"It will be a curse if it`s not managed properly," said Mr. Cameron diplomatically, before going on to note that: "It can also be a great gift to Canada and to Alberta if it is managed properly. Personally, I believe that this is an incredible resource.... It`s the single-largest reserve of potential crude oil next to Saudi Arabia and in an energy-starved future that`s going to be a piece that`s going to really put Canada in a different position and help with energy independence in North America."

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Brace for peak oil production by decade`s endCharles Maxwell: The use of petroleum in the world is now up to about 30 billion barrels per year. The rate at which we have found new supplies of petroleum over the last 10 years has fallen to an average of only about 10 billion barrels per year.

We`re obviously in an unsustainable situation. We are now using up a greater number of barrels that we have found in the recent past and that we have reserved in the ground. We are now beginning to use it up relatively quickly — with scary consequences for the future.

The peak of production usually comes sometime between 30 and 50 years after the peak of finding oil. "The peak of discovery," as they call it. For instance, in the North Sea, the peak of discovery was in the late 1960s, and the peak of production was in the late 1990s. So it was around 30 years between the peak of finding oil and the peak production of that oil.

Wallace Forbes:
From those sources in the North Sea?

Maxwell:
Yes. In the United States, the actual peak of discovery was 1931, quite a bit earlier. We were the first country to actually peak in the world of oil production. Our peak of production came in late in 1970. So that was a 39-year transition from the peak of finding the oil to the peak of producing it.

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`Boom times` are over, Flaherty told

OTTAWA — Finance Minister Jim Flaherty said Monday Canadians must adjust their expectations for the economy as the "boom times" are clearly over and the outlook is "highly uncertain."

The comments emerged as the Minister met with private-sector economists to help craft the government`s coming fall fiscal update.

"We are in a different world today," Mr. Flaherty said following his meeting, in which economists shared their projections for the year and discussed, among other things, the impact another round of quantitative easing in the United States could have in Canada.

Mr. Flaherty said he was advised to "stay the course" in terms of its budget plans, but there is a need to recognize "the uncertainty" in the outlook.

"This is not a time of booming economic growth," the Minister said. "This is a time of modest economic growth, and there needs to be some adjustment of expectations. We are not going to see the boom times we saw before."

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