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November 2014 Canadian Economic Fundamentals

Ally

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Canada upgrades housing forecasts





Canada's federal housing agency predicts work on new homes will increase this year and next, compared with an August call for a decline, in another sign of unexpected strength in the real estate market.





Work would begin on 189,500 units in 2015, up from 189,000 this year, which would be an increase from 2013 levels, Canada Mortgage & Housing Corp said in a quarterly forecast. In August, the agency predicted starts would fall this year and next from 2013.





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Capital gains tax reform in Canada





The Canadian economy is currently sluggish. Low economic growth has broad implications including slower growth in employment, income, and living standards. Any debate about using future budgetary surpluses should focus on policy measures that can improve economic growth. One of policy reform area that could contribute to higher levels of economic activity is capital gains taxation. Eliminating capital gains taxes or reforming the application of the tax could help to increase Canada`s supply of early-stage financing and in so doing contribute to greater levels of entrepreneurship, higher economic growth, and more job creation.





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Canada's manufacturing sector signals continued expansion ahead





TORONTO - A monthly gauge of the Canadian manufacturing sector hit an 11-month high in October.





The RBC Canadian PMI rose to 55.3 last month, up from 53.5 in September and matching a high point set in November last year.





A measure above 50.0 indicates the manufacturing sector is expanding.





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Canadian oil likely an early item on the agenda for new U.S. congress





WASHINGTON - Canada's stalled Keystone XL pipeline project is poised to become one of the first orders of business in the new U.S. Congress, where Tuesday's Republican romp could end up impacting several cross-border industries.





There are hopes in Ottawa that the midterm results could spur movement on the controversial Canada-U.S. bitumen pipeline, as well as major free-trade negotiations and perhaps even meat-labelling rules that have hurt Canada.





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Looking for a job? Stay away from these industries and provinces





New Brunswick has lost nearly 3 per cent of its jobs over the past year. All that and then some was offset by Alberta, where the number of jobs swelled by 3.3 per cent, according to StatsCan`s latest survey of employment, payrolls and hours, released last week.





It`s more evidence that when it comes to landing a job in Canada, the principle that applies is the one from real estate: Location, location, location.





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What Republican gains mean for Canada





Barack Obama may be more popular with Canadians than Americans, but the U.S. President`s suddenly diminished influence in the U.S. Congress could actually be a good thing for this country. The Keystone XL pipeline is just one of several bilateral files that could be unblocked in the wake of Tuesday`s dramatic Republican electoral gains. Mitch McConnell, who is expected to be Senate majority leader, vows `the gridlock and dysfunction can be ended`





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In Canada's crazy housing market, the hot get hotter





Many of the country`s big local real estate boards have reported in recent days monthly sales numbers for October. Here`s a tidy summary of what they tell us:





`The priciest Canadian markets became even less affordable in October.`





That was the response Thursday from BMO senior economist Sal Guatieri, after he reviewed the latest data.





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Canadian home sales falling





House sales in Canada are falling nationally, seeing the first monthly fall since the beginning of the year, according to the latest data from the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA).






The figures reveal that national home sales fell 1.4% from August to September but actual (not seasonally adjusted) activity stood 10.6% above September 2013 levels.





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The value of location efficient homes





RBC recently announced the results of the 2014 Home Location Study by RBC-Pembina and the trend is clear. Researcher Cherise Burda says `location efficient homes` are becoming more important to Canadian home owners. `This Toronto-based study reflects trends that we see in report after report from all major Canadian cities,` she says. The study says that 81 per cent of respondents would give up a larger yard for a more walkable, less car-intensive location.





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Falling oil prices hurt some, help others in Canada





The falling price of oil threatens to thump parts of Canada, whose fortunes are the most tied to oil of any Group of Seven country. But oil's swoon isn't all bad news for a country that has the world's third-biggest oil reserve, underscoring the complex role the resource can play in a modern economy.





An estimated 7.5% of Canada's gross domestic product is directly tied up in the oil sector. A sustained fall in the commodity's price would hit government coffers, corporate profits and investment spending. A pullback in the country's oil patch would cost jobs and could knock a housing market that some analysts say is overvalued.










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Toronto and Vancouver home prices pass Rome and close in on Paris





Canada`s two priciest cities for homes can now be included in an international class that is attracting foreign investors from around the world, says a new real estate study.





The report from CBRE says `prime` residential property in Toronto is now $1,225 per square foot while Vancouver is $1,368 per square foot. Those dollar figures have vaulted the city past some pretty impressive competitors like Rome and Milan. Similar property in Paris is $2,000 per square foot while the most expensive city in the study, London, comes in at $3,636 per square foot.





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