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May 2015 Canadian Economic Fundamentals

Ally

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News articles for May 2015.
 

Ally

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The Volkswagen loan is a winner

Last week, Export Development Canada (EDC), the agency responsible for helping Canadian companies sell their products and services throughout the world, announced a loan to Volkswagen (VW) that will generate hundreds of millions of dollars in new business for Canadian auto parts makers and toolers, and create jobs for Canadians.

This is a commercial loan, at market rates, and fully repayable with interest.

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Canada's housing market heavily influenced by non-permanent residents, says CIBC

Nearly three-quarters of a million non-permanent residents (NPRs) call Canada home, a growing demographic that is “helping to reshape the country’s housing market,” says a new report from CIBC World Markets.

In their report, the bank says the number of NPRs in Canada has climbed by more than 450,000 over the past decade to a record 770,000, with 95 per cent being under the age of 45 — an all-important economic demographic.

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How Canada's oil will find its way to the end point of Keystone XL

HOUSTON • The end point of the Keystone XL pipeline, at the western tip of a 77-kilometre segment that runs from Port Arthur, Tex., to the huge refineries lining the Houston Ship Channel, hardly resembles the flashpoint of the most intense controversy to hit Canada-U.S. relations since the softwood lumber dispute.

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Speeding Down: The Slow Living Revolution

We are living in a time when we have moved away from the pursuit of happiness to the pursuit of fulfillment. In every facet of our everyday lives, we are making dramatic change. Whether it’s where we live, what we eat, how we spend our free time, what we drive, how we plan our personal relationships, what we wear, or how we work, we are taking a more nuanced approach. We are living more consciously, and questioning things more than ever before. We have slowed down the high-speed runway technology keeps us on, and living a more conscious lifestyle.

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What can a little birdie tell us about the Parliamentary Press Gallery

For as long as we’ve had media and political parties, the former has been accused of partisan bias by the latter. In both Canada and the US, those on the right often complain that the media has a “liberal bias” while those on the left complain of “corporate media” or “conservative bias.” Is there actually bias or is this just a story partisans tell themselves?

Social media sites and the big data they produce offer new, experimental ways to measure nebulous concepts like bias. I’ve tried to uncover signs of partisan bias in Canada’s Parliamentary Press Gallery using Twitter followers.

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Oil drilling forecast for Western Canada slashed by nearly 50% after market drama

The dramatic drop in oil prices has spurred an oil and gas trade group to knock its previous forecast for 2015 drilling by nearly 50 per cent to 5,320 wells.

The mid-year update to the drilling activity forecast released Thursday by the Petroleum Services Association of Canada was a decrease of 4,780 wells from PSAC’s original forecast last October.

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Bank of Canada overhauls rules shield financial system from future crises

Canada’s central bank is overhauling its rules to keep financial markets operating, incorporating lessons from the 2008 crisis, Bank of Canada Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Wilkins said Tuesday.

The changes range from allowing private investors to buy more new government bonds to denying bailout funding to institutions that don’t have so-called living wills, Wilkins said in a speech in Montreal.

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Canadian dollar spikes again

The Canadian dollar is bouncing higher again today, moving in a wide range to best the 83-cent mark.

It’s largely because of a weaker U.S. currency, rather than anything to do with Canada, however.

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Why Statistics Canada's jobs data should be treated with caution

Recall about a year ago the mystery of how widespread business claims of labour shortages, and their calls to preserve the Temporary Foreign Workers program, could co-exist with critics who pointed to a job vacancy rate of 1.5% in a Statistics Canada survey. Some of the mystery was cleared up last week, when Statistics Canada quietly put out a technical paper called 2011 Workplace Survey Summary and Lessons Learned. It holds lessons not just for understanding vacancy rates but also for anyone relying on data alone to provide the answer to all policy questions and conundrums.

Statistics Canada found that the 1.5% vacancy rate in its business payroll survey nearly doubled to 2.7% in its Workplace Survey. The increase was most pronounced for the industries that were complaining the most about shortages in 2011, such as mining, transportation and construction, and for the Western provinces. In other words, these data make a lot more sense and better fit the narrative coming from the business community at the time.

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Stats Can says unexpected shortfall has affected GDP

The Canadian economy flat lined in February, after gains in retail sales were offset by a drop in manufacturing, mining and the energy sector. Statistics Canada says real gross domestic product was unchanged in February from January, more evidence of a slump that has been triggered by lower commodity prices. The agency also revised it’s reading for January to a loss of 0.2 per cent from their initial estimate of a 0.1 per cent drop. The Bank of Canada has already said it expects no economic growth in the first quarter in 2015, but things will improve as the year moves on.

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Pace of housing starts decline in April, in line with expectations

OTTAWA — Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. says the pace of home construction slowed last month, with much of the decline due to fewer starts of multiple-dwelling projects compared with March.

Bob Dugan, the federal agency's chief economist, says the rate of multi-unit starts peaked in September and the downward seasonally adjusted trend experienced in April was in line with expectations.

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Canada loses 19,700 jobs in April, unemployment rate sticks at 6.8%

OTTAWA — The Canadian economy lost 19,700 net jobs last month as the headline number in the latest labour-market data came in lower than economists’ expectations.

The national unemployment rate held steady at 6.8 per cent in April for the third straight month, Statistics Canada said Friday.

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Even Keystone XL foes grow weary of Obama’s delay (love that attention remains on this project while others grow)

Keystone XL supporters often complain that President Barack Obama’s delay in deciding on whether to allow the oil pipeline to be built is costing jobs and keeping the U.S. tied to unstable energy partners.

With the review now stretching beyond six years, some critics, increasingly confident that Obama will reject the Canada-to-U.S. pipeline, have joined them in calling for a resolution.

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Canada's two-speed housing market has regulators in a bind

Canada’s housing market has been a study in contrasts ever since a drop in oil prices and an interest-rate cut cooled home sales in Alberta and Saskatchewan while fuelling double-digit growth in Toronto and Vancouver.

A series of new national home price numbers out this week for April, the height of the spring market, will likely paint an even more dramatic picture of that emerging trend.

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Why rates won't rise

Speaking at RealtorQuest, Warren Jestin, the chief economist for ScotiaBank, said Canada’s central bank likely won’t raise interest rates, possibly until the end of next year.

Jestin pointed to several reasons behind his forecast, each of which he said led to the Bank of Canada’s concern for the economy, which, in turn, is keeping rates low.


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Better times ahead even after Canada drops nearly 20,000 jobs: Economists

OTTAWA (CP) — The Canadian job market mustered a disappointing headline number last month, but experts say the broader batches of economic data are still pointing to the economy's bounce back in the coming months.

The labour market itself, however, has swung back and forth in recent months to produce only a modest result over the longer term.



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Mortgage lenders get creative as Canadian homebuyers seek lowest rates

TORONTO Online comparison shopping is changing everything from how we buy a new television set to how we select a mortgage, and it's causing some mortgage lenders to get creative in order to compete.

"Lenders are stripping away features of mortgages to get their rates lower," says Steve Pipkey, co-founder of Spin Mortgage.

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Lowe's acquires 13 former Target locations in Canada

Home improvement and appliance retailer Lowe's has acquired leases for 13 former Target Canada's locations.

The retailer acquired the retail storefronts and Target's former distribution hub in Milton, Ontario, in a $151m deal.


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Economic optimism keeps Canada consumer confidence at 2015 high

(Bloomberg) -- Canadian consumer confidence held at its highest since January amid growing optimism about the country’s economic outlook.

The Bloomberg Nanos Canadian Confidence Index -- a composite measure based on consumer polling -- was unchanged at 56.8 last week. The weekly index has been trending higher since the end of February, when it reached an almost two-year low.

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