Investing in Prince George, BC

[talno]

Hello,
Last February I bought two townhouses in Prince George, BC (Westwood area). Units evaluation is now up 28%! there has been a positif impact from nearby commercial development and I am considering my options: selling this summer or holding until after the olympics? Both units deliver a positive cashflow and are easy to rent. I would prefer to hold but concerned about long distance management issues (maintenance, rental showings etc..)
How do you think the Prince George real estate will be doing in the next couple of years? I was there two weeks ago and locals do not seem to be worried about Pine Beetle damage anymore... mining is the buzz word... Thanks for all feedback.

 

[mikecunning]

QUOTE (talno @ Nov 19 2007, 03:28 PM) Hello,
Last February I bought two townhouses in Prince George, BC (Westwood area). Units evaluation is now up 28%! there has been a positif impact from nearby commercial development and I am considering my options: selling this summer or holding until after the olympics? Both units deliver a positive cashflow and are easy to rent. I would prefer to hold but concerned about long distance management issues (maintenance, rental showings etc..)
How do you think the Prince George real estate will be doing in the next couple of years? I was there two weeks ago and locals do not seem to be worried about Pine Beetle damage anymore... mining is the buzz word... Thanks for all feedback.



I would sell that thing so fast your head would spin! Check out the Pink Beetle report that REIN has produced...also, take a look at what is happening with employment levels at the local mills...especially with the strength of the Canadian Dollar...nothing but lay offs, lay offs, lay offs...Take your profit as quick as you can! Good luck

Mike

 

[talno]

QUOTE (mikecunning @ Nov 19 2007, 07:09 PM) I would sell that thing so fast your head would spin! Check out the Pink Beetle report that REIN has produced...also, take a look at what is happening with employment levels at the local mills...especially with the strength of the Canadian Dollar...nothing but lay offs, lay offs, lay offs...Take your profit as quick as you can! Good luck

Mike

Thanks Mike. I read the report and frankly was aware of the Pine Beetle issue when I bought. I am looking for cues to manage the risk... I guess the real impact will be felt a couple of years from now. I will be seriously looking into liquidating this spring. Thanks again!

 

[navaz]

Perhaps look at what Don teaches at REIN- be a student not a follower. Have you looked at filling out the "Goldmine card"? This will avoid any knee jerk reactions based on emotions

 

[talno]

QUOTE (navaz @ Nov 20 2007, 02:38 PM) Perhaps look at what Don teaches at REIN- be a student not a follower. Have you looked at filling out the "Goldmine card"? This will avoid any knee jerk reactions based on emotions

Thanks for the feedback. Mike scared the daylights out of me ( Hi Mike!

Here is my reasoning:



Now: good value for money and affordable = good resale prospects. There is positive cash flow and no vacancy since. Appreciation after 10 months is 28%, proximity to university and new commercial development in the neighborhood.



Two years from now: I am assuming that there must be some rationale to store such as Home Depot, Taco bell and KFC to move in. There are positive developments such as the airport runway extension with negotiations starting with international airlines not to mention various mining projects. I was at UNBC in early November and enrolment is up.



In four to five years: Pine Beetle issue is a blessing (mini boom) and a curse (projected bust) the key will be to figure out how much of a negative impact it will have and how other sectors will perform.



My gut feeling is that beyond 2009-2010 could be risky depending on how things evolve. For now there is clearly a wind of optimism there and money to be made. Does gut feeling count?



Please feel free to discuss I am testing my assumptions here.

 

[timk519]

QUOTE (talno @ Nov 21 2007, 12:28 AM) Two years from now: I am assuming that there must be some rationale to store such as Home Depot, Taco bell and KFC to move in. There are positive developments such as the airport runway extension with negotiations starting with international airlines not to mention various mining projects. I was at UNBC in early November and enrolment is up.

My gut feeling is that beyond 2009-2010 could be risky depending on how things evolve. For now there is clearly a wind of optimism there and money to be made. Does gut feeling count? Unless you`ve got a lot of experience, gut feelings`ll get you in trouble sooner or later.

I`d find out why all these companies decided to locate there, which would put me on the trail to the reason why you should hold or sell the property, and if you`re going to sell - then when.

 

[talno]

QUOTE (timk519 @ Nov 21 2007, 06:52 AM) Unless you`ve got a lot of experience, gut feelings`ll get you in trouble sooner or later.

I`d find out why all these companies decided to locate there, which would put me on the trail to the reason why you should hold or sell the property, and if you`re going to sell - then when.

Thanks. Reviewed CMHC reports and unemployment rate is lower than last year Q3 2006(6.7%) Q3 2007 (5.6%). MLS avergae price moved from 201K to 233K. Vacancy rates dropped to 0.9 for 3.beds townhouses and there is a shift in demand from single detached to multiple units housing the trend applies to both sales and rentals. The numbers look good and its a bit puzzling.

 

[DonCampbell]

They will look good during this mini-boom as the in-migration and job growth continues. The Goldmine Scorecard is designed to force an investor to ask the critical questions, however it is still important to look at your personal plan and how long you wish to hold the property and what purchasers you will be targeting upon your exit.

A solid market must have an `exit` opportunity or else you look like a genius for a few year and then when the time comes to cash your chips the title of genius my disappear if there is no one to purchase it from you.