Interesting analysis of the current financial melt-down

GarthChapman

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#1
BRIAN MILNER AND BARRIE MCKENNA AND HEATHER SCOFFIELD From Saturday`s Globe and Mail
November 14, 2008 at 8:58 PM EST


Brazil`s populist President, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, took the podium in Sao Paulo last weekend to deliver a blunt speech to 20 global powers, essentially saying: You started it. Now fix it.


“No country is safe from the financial crisis. We are all being affected by the problems that started in the advanced countries,” Mr. da Silva told finance ministers and central bankers of the G20 countries.

The chastened ministers had no choice but to sit there and agree. And then they got to work. They put their stamp of approval on what is becoming a consensus about what is needed to put the global economy and financial markets back on track.

On Saturday, the G20 political leaders will sanction their approach. They want the leading developed countries to devise more ways to restore credit markets, keep slashing interest rates to stimulate growth and pour much more government money into fiscal stimulus packages.



All of these are emergency measures that are indeed critical. But they amount to calling out the fire brigade to put out a kitchen blaze in a shoddily maintained mansion.

Once the flames are doused, the owners will have to commit to an extensive and costly rebuilding of everything from the cracked foundation, the crumbling walls and the outmoded wiring and plumbing to the badly leaking roof. And that`s on top of the structural damage wrought by the hurricane-force financial storms.

The best we can hope for out of the unprecedented G20 gathering are some cosmetic improvements, a professed commitment to working together and lots of talk about serious reforms down the road.

Here are key trouble spots that will have to be addressed – some sooner than others, but all of them eventually – to reduce the likelihood that the global financial system will fall prey to another “once-in-a-lifetime” catastrophe any time soon.

Read on for the solutions in the analogy here http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/sto...5/BNStory/Front
 
Mar 11, 2008
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#2
G-20: Shaping a new world orderSource: CNN.Money http://tinyurl.com/6dz9bq

This weekend when the G20 meet I’m worried “they are gonna come up with an idea for one central bank for the world.”
“This is the end of the monetary system…”
“The dollar hegemony is ending.”
Source: Ron Paul http://tinyurl.com/4dutaf

A New World Financial Orde
r
Source: Jacob Steelman http://tinyurl.com/6dekdh

Baron David de Rothschild sees a New World Order in global banking governance

http://tinyurl.com/66roeu
 
#3
The heart of the issue:I) too much regulation
a) in the 90`s when the Clinton administration forced bank to lower lending standards in the US to allow more sub-prime borrowers,
b) aggrevated by Alan Greenspan`s low low interest rate policy in the 2000`s after the tech boom,

and also

II) too little regulations as it relates to

a) too much securitized mortgages without any cash on the balance sheet for syndicated mortgages
b) insured swaps (buy/sell) of these securities with "default" insurance by AIG (so called credit default swaps) worth trillions of $s,
c) too little lending standards oversight (no income verification mortgages, teaser mortgages, ..)
d) too much lending to developing nations at too low interest rates with no "central" oversight

The issue is that unfettered capitalism doesn`t work nor does too much government intervention. So the trick is to get the mix right ..

I think we are at or very near the bottom of the stock market as most negative news have been priced into most securities already, interbank lending rates are way down, interbank lending volume is up, consumer confidence is most negative and VIX is down, plus we had 3 tests of market bottoms over the nest few weeks ..

Due to massive cash injections and bailouts by many governments worldwide, including China, Europa, Canada, US huge inflation is coming .. after a time of deflating asset values down to a more normal valuation .. including stocks and real estate such as single family houses, CAP rates or apartment building yields: U. S. monetary aggregates accelerating. In the latest reported week, the Adjusted Monetary Base, which is the aggregate directly impacted by the Fed`s open market operations, was up 51% year over year, having been increasing at only a 2% to 3% pace for the preceding year up to September. That 51% figure represents the largest increase in the history of the Fed by far. The latest figures for M2 show growth of 7%
unlike the early 1930`s when the Adjusted Monetary Base was growing and M2 was declining by double digit numbers. This should materially reduce the odds of deflation. At the October/November lows, stocks have been selling at Depression type multiples. Thus, if we "only" have a recession, multiples will expand and stocks will go up.


More on this here: http://www.nationalpost.com/related/links/....html?id=961930

A good time to own hard assets with income to support a medium- to long term hold .. not gold (no income !!) .. but energy stocks/trusts, mining companies, farmland (cash crops !!) and income producing real estate
!!
 
Jan 13, 2008
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#4
I followed the Ron Paul crowd for a while too.Try not to put too much stock in it. It truly is at the periphery of society. It sounds romantic to go back to the gold standard and it sounds reasonable to completely rid the world (America at least) of any form of government intervention, but I think if you start to diversify your reading habits, you`ll see why it`s not realistic.
What power do the Rothschild`s still have? They completely control the money supply of the world? Really?



QUOTE (wealthyboomer @ Nov 15 2008, 07:15 PM) G-20: Shaping a new world orde
r
Source: CNN.Money http://tinyurl.com/6dz9bq

This weekend when the G20 meet I’m worried “they are gonna come up with an idea for one central bank for the world.”
“This is the end of the monetary system…”
“The dollar hegemony is ending.”
Source: Ron Paul http://tinyurl.com/4dutaf

A New World Financial Orde
r
Source: Jacob Steelman http://tinyurl.com/6dekdh

Baron David de Rothschild sees a New World Order in global banking governance

http://tinyurl.com/66roeu