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February 2014 Canadian Economic Fundamentals

Ally

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News articles for February.
 

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Canada's housing market overvalued by 10%, TD study finds





Deutsche Bank puts it at 60 per cent, others in the area of 30 per cent. But Toronto-Dominion Bank says Canada`s housing market is overvalued by just 10 per cent, based on a fairer measure.





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Falling Canadian dollar will spur inflation





Here`s another benefit of the falling Canadian dollar: it will help inflation pick up again, and that will ultimately be good for the Canadian economy.








Huh? How could inflation, a steady increase in the prices that we pay for goods and services, be good for us?






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Canadian economy will grow in 2014: IMF





WASHINGTON`The International Monetary Fund expects the Canadian economy to improve in 2014, albeit very slightly.








The organization has released a projection that Canada`s economy will grow 2.2 per cent this year, up from an estimated 1.7 per cent in 2013.






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sub 3% mortgage rates are in sight again - just don't tell Jim Flaherty





Perhaps they forgot to consult Jim Flaherty, but mortgage brokers appear to have crossed the line in the sand he drew for how low rates should go.





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Canada - U.S. productivity: Perspective matters





Every once and a while, we see a new study published amid headlines that don`t quite match the actual findings.








Earlier this month, an example popped up from Statistics Canada. `Canada-United States Labour Productivity Gap Across Firm Size Classes` is a boring enough title, but the study freely discussed Canada`s `small-firm disadvantage,` which understandably led to stories in the press that small businesses here were somehow responsible for our lagging productivity performance.





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House prices still rising in Toronto, Vancouver





There seems to be no end in sight to the housing bubble in two of Canada's largest cities, with the real estate boards of Toronto and Vancouver reporting year-on-year price increases of two to 12 per cent for January.








In Toronto, the average selling price for a home in January was $526,528 ` up by more than nine per cent from a year earlier.





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Finance department flags unusually volatile jobs data





An internal analysis by the Department of Finance concludes the volatility of monthly job numbers is `well above` the historical average, a finding that appears to contradict Statistics Canada`s assertions that growing volatility is a myth.








The finding by departmental officials is revealed in a briefing note to Finance Minister Jim Flaherty, which was obtained by the Globe and Mail under Access to Information legislation.






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Canada housing market overvalued by 10%





Canada`s housing market has been scrutinized six ways from Sunday, but at least one economist claims to have the most sensible take on what`s happening in one of the country's most controversial sectors.





While there have been a wide range of forecasts, from fair value to a market that`s overheated by 60 per cent, TD Bank believes the market is overvalued by about 10 per cent. The call is based on housing affordability, which TD economist Diana Petramala says is the best measure to use.





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Canada building permits take an unexpected dive





OTTAWA - Statistics Canada says the value of building permits issued by municipalities declined 4.1 per cent to $6.5 billion in December, following a 6.6 per cent decrease in November.








The drop was driven by a decline in new permits for housing, which fell 9.3 per cent. It came as a surprise to industry watchers, as the consensus call had been for a 1.5 per cent rebound following November's slump.





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5 things to know about renewing your mortgage





The Bank of Canada has kept the key interest rate steady and banks have been quietly cutting their rates for fixed and variable mortgage rates. They are also fighting for a shrinking pool of borrowers so it sounds like a great time to renew your mortgage.









Yet many Canadians simply sign their mortgage renewal papers. A 2011 Manulife survey found that almost two out of three Canadians surveyed stayed with their current mortgage provider and didn`t negotiate.





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Canada t behind in auto race as U.S., Mexico make gains





North American vehicle production hit its highest level in a decade last year, but Canada missed out on the recovery ` another sign that the country`s position as an auto-making powerhouse is being eroded.








Output at assembly plants in Canada fell 3 per cent, compared with increases of 7 per cent at U.S. plants and 2 per cent at factories in Mexico, pushing Canada`s share of North American vehicle production to its lowest level since 1987.





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Canada's trade deficit biggest in a year in December





OTTAWA/TORONTO (Reuters) - Canada's trade deficit jumped to the highest level in a year in December, a government report showed on Thursday, the latest in a series of disappointing economic figures that are expected to keep the Bank of Canada from raising interest rates this year.








Separate data that showed a rebound in the pace of purchasing activity in January offset some of the initial gloom generated by the trade report and helped the Canadian dollar regain some ground after an early fall.





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Housing starts expected to stabilize as interest rates rise





OTTAWA ` Builders will likely reduce housing starts in 2014 and 2015 as they adjust to rising interest rates and a slowdown in demand from first-time buyers, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. says.





"While housing demand will be supported by an improvement in fundamentals, total housing starts will remain more or less stable over the forecast horizon," the housing corporation said in an outlook issued Thursday.





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Even the real estate companies are buying





Royal LePage has poached one of the country`s largest real estate franchises.








The real estate company announced a deal Thursday with Toronto-based Coldwell Banker Terrequity Realty that will see it join the LePage network. Terraequity is the largest Coldwell Banker franchise in Canada and has more than 400 agents in 13 offices across the Greater Toronto Area.





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Housing starts to hold steady in 2014





Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. says it expects housing starts to stabilize in 2014 and 2015.








It says improved economic and demographic fundamentals will be tempered by a combination of a modest and gradual increase in mortgage rates and a slowdown in demand from first-time buyers.





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England ready to restrict foreign ownership. Will Canada?





Foreign investment in real estate in London, England, is causing massive social upheaval and controversy ` and politicians are preparing to do something about it.








The Guardian newspaper has published two hard-hitting stories in the past couple of days outlining how Britain`s urban unaffordability crisis has been caused in part by wealthy foreign investors buying up large parts of London and elsewhere ` and in many cases not living in the dwellings, or even renting them out.





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The other side of the story - is Canadian housing overvalued?





From the desk of Ben Myers, SVP Market Research and Analytics





This is the eighth instalment of my `Other Side of the Story` series, where we provide an alternative view on newspaper articles pertaining to the Canadian housing market. Our intent is not to demean the journalist or the publication, but to simply provide a further perspective on the results for Fortress, our partners and investors in the Fortress Real Capital product.





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Unemployment rate in selected Canadian cities





OTTAWA - The national unemployment rate was 7.0 cent in January. Statistics Canada also released seasonally adjusted, three-month moving average unemployment rates for major cities but cautions the figures may fluctuate widely because they are based on small statistical samples.





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Canada's trade deficit biggest in a year in December





OTTAWA/TORONTO (Reuters) - Canada's trade deficit jumped to the highest level in a year in December, a government report showed on Thursday, the latest in a series of disappointing economic figures that are expected to keep the Bank of Canada from raising interest rates this year.








Separate data that showed a rebound in the pace of purchasing activity in January offset some of the initial gloom generated by the trade report and helped the Canadian dollar regain some ground after an early fall.





Read the full article here.
 
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