February 2011 Canadian Economic Fundamentals

[Ally]

Canadians regret lack of retirement planning




Are you overwhelmed, resilient, iconic, distracted or savvy? I, like some of you, might be tempted at times to say all of the above.




But when it comes to the retirement outlooks for Americans aged 45 to 74, an Allianz Life survey shows that people in that huge demographic of about 100 million fit into one of those five personality categories.




And which category do many Boomers of that certain age put themselves in these days? No prizes for guessing that the largest percentage ` 32% ` of these folks retired or headed toward retirement describe themselves as `overwhelmed.` And, more important, more than half of those 45 to 54 ` the youngest Boomers ` put themselves in that category.



Read the full article here.

 

[Ally]

Political unrest could ad US$10 a barrel to oil




Political unrest in the Middle East and North Africa could add another US$10 to oil prices that rallied to new highs on Tuesday as the revolt in Libya intensifies and threatens to spread to other major oil producers.




`Thus far we have taken a relatively sanguine view of the global fall-out from the political turmoil,` said Julian Jessop, an economist at Capital Economics.




`The fact that the unrest has spread to Libya does not materially change this view, but it has probably raised the additional risk premium in oil prices from around $5 to around $10 per barrel.




Mr. Jessop said the unrest in Libya is worrying because of the regime`s apparent willingness to use ultimate force against the opposition and its record of supporting extremists in other countries both in the region and in the West.



Read the full article here.

 

[Ally]

Libyan uprising pushes oil higher




Oil prices surged to a two-and-a-half year high Tuesday while stock markets fell around the world as political unrest deepened in Libya, home to the largest oil reserves in Africa.






Benchmark West Texas Intermediate for April delivery (CL-FT95.375.666.31%) jumped 6.4 per cent to $95.42 per barrel in New York -- the highest level since October, 2008. Brent crude rose 44 cents to $106.18 per barrel on the ICE Futures Exchange. Brent may trade as high as $110 a barrel in coming weeks if the unrest persists, Goldman Sachs predicted.





Read the full article here.

 

[Ally]

Is history about to repeat itself for the third time, and send the Dow down to 8731?





Here is the money quote:







"The US stock market has now doubled from its low. In other words, there are only three occasions in the last hundred years when the stock market in the US doubled within two years," he added.

One such occasion was in 1934, coming off a "very deeply oversold condition" in 1932 and the other one was in 1937. After 1937 and 1934, the 12 months return were both negative, Faber said.







What is so very interesting is that I have been using 1932 ` 1942 as an analog for the current stock market since the NDX low in November 2008 and the March 2009 lows in INDU and SPX. Several years ago I created a chart of INDU from 1932 ` 1942 using raw data and Excel and did the Fibonacci math for the 10 year period. It is just amazing how well Fibonacci levels worked back then. For all the skeptics out there, this chart could change your mind about Fib levels.






Read the full article here.

 

[Ally]

Mideast turmoil sends oil prices soaring





WASHINGTON - Oil prices jumped to their highest levels since 2008 as violence spread through Libya, the first major petroleum exporter to be shaken so far by the drive for democracy in the Arab world.




In London on Monday, the benchmark price of crude oil surged $5.48, or more than 5 percent, to $108 a barrel. The rise knocked European stock markets sharply lower as fears mounted that soaring energy costs could derail the global economic recovery.




U.S. oil prices also jumped, rising $5.22, or 6 percent, to $91.42 a barrel in electronic trading on a day when most U.S. financial markets were closed for the Presidents Day holiday. U.S. prices lately have been consistently below the London price because the United States is less reliant than Europe on Middle Eastern oil. Also, U.S. crude inventories have been near record highs.




Read the full article here.

 

[Ally]

Western Canada lumber sales to China soar in 2010






VANCOUVER (Reuters) - Lumber sales to China from British Columbia skyrocketed last year and a top official in Canada's largest timber-exporting province believes it can continue to grow despite increasing U.S. competition.





Forestry firms in the western Canadian province shipped 4.6 million cubic meters of softwood lumber products to China in 2010, a 76 percent increase from 2009, according to figures from B.C.'s Ministry of Forests, Mines and Lands.





Total lumber sales to China were valued at C$687 million ($694 million) in 2010, more than double the 2009 level.





Forestry Minister Pat Bell believes the province can sell as much as 5 million cubic meters in 2011, although he expects the growth rate will tail off a bit from what was experienced in the fourth quarter of 2010.



Read the full article here.