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Canadian Real Estate: Spiralling Downward

jamurphy

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This is an intersting topic.
So it seems like the concensus is....as long as you can make great cash-flow it IS worth the risk.

For new REIM members such as myself who do not have the financial leverage to buy into plex`s and recognize the economies of scale....and thus focus on single townhouses and appt condos).....with 100% financing you are doing EXTREMELY well if you can break even (in Edmonton).

What would the more experienced members suggest for us?

Thanks
James M
 

kabuku

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My two cents are as follows.

The realestate market tends to lag the stock market by a few years eg. black monday in 87 and the bottom of the housing market in aprox 93. Things do tend to move faster these days but, I stilll think we have a year or two of this downtrend in housing left.
Asset values don`t matter, only cash flow matters. Not buying that one.
Why not buy some income trusts then. 15-20% yields are out there right now. What if it drops 50% in value in the same year, not so good. I fell for that one myself and it hurts.
Lots of layoffs out there and more to come.
Internet gurus and high flying economists be damned (Jeff Rubins calls have been right on, not).
there are no guarantees if and when the underlying value of any assett will increase.
In the immortal words or eeyore (winnie the pooh)
"the only thing we know for sure, is that nobody knows for sure"

may the force be with you,
Kabuku
 

GarthChapman

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If you are buying for the short term, don`t buy real estate.

If you plan to hold for the long term, and you buy good cash-flowing properties at reasonable prices it doesn`t matter. Buy last year, buy this year, buy next year - no real difference in the long haul. Your objectives will be met, and this is largely because you are leveraged at 4 to 1 or better. Remember, the appreciation doesn`t have to be much in percentage for it to be significant in dollars.

If you bought in 04, 05 you got really lucky and got 10 years of appreciation in 2. Great, but abnormal. So trying to time this market is a fools game.
 

Nir

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Dear Mr. Murphy,

"members such as myself who do not have the financial leverage to buy into plex`s" - sorry, that is your biggest mistake!

why? because Yes, you can! how do I know? that`s what I did - started with nothing and purchased a 3-plex with 5% down (1st property), then a 4-plex with more down (2nd property).

I learned so much of what I know from Don`s GREAT book and SUPERB investors participating in this forum. however if you were convinced you can`t because you`re new then I must disagree with that specific message whoever told you that is Mr. wrong
style_emoticons


Good luck,
Neil
 

jamurphy

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Thanks for your reply Neil.

When you say 5% down...do you mean that you took CMHC insurance?.

I have seen no way to get better than 80% LTV
 

tbarcier

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All my properties have been purchased with 5% down and they all cash flow, and I own two plex`s. Now that being said, sure the prices in Canada may be down 9.9%, however who invests in Canadian real estate? In Ontario the average price is up and here in my town we are up 6.1% over last year. So omg omg omg!!! The sky is falling! Well maybe in some markets but not all.
 

nepoez

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I really wouldn`t mind if it went down another 20%. Then Edmonton might actually cash flow again.
 

GSI

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QUOTE (Jack @ Nov 17 2008, 06:39 PM)
Besides, it's ultimately capital appreciation that will make you rich, not a hundred dollars or so of passive income every month. So, yes, I care.




In a perfect world we could have tons of CF and Capital gains. It can be tough to find a lot of CF or enough CF from a few properties to support a luxurious lifestyle. But, 'true wealth' is derived from having enough cash and/or CF to support your current standard of living indefinitely.



So, unless you sell your assets to get 'rich' then use that cash for your life style (until it runs out) you could be on the path to getting poor. Instead, build up CF and capital, leverage the capital (equity) in to more CF based investments. Real estate isn't the only asset that produces CF - but it certainly has great leverage. In my opinion generating enough CF could, on a financial level, make you rich or richer than just having equity.





Is Cash Flow better than Capital Gain?

posted in General Finance | My co-worker and I were driving past the construction site of a high end condominium near to our work place.Ã Naturally, the conversation shifted to the condominium and my co-worker muttered that if he has the money, he would seriously consider buy a unit although his current place is less than 3 years old.Ã He was speculating that the property price will go and in a few years time, he would be able to sell it off for a tidy sum of profit.



Thinking back, this has been the traditional investment model which most people are practicing.à It isà what Robert Kiyosaki called the Capital Gain or Captial Appreciation investing model.



Generally, with this investing model, people invest into things which they think the value will go up with time.Ã Commonly, people would buy up and invest into real estate with the hope that it will appreciate and they can sell it off for the profit later on.Ã However, there is no guarantee that real estate you own will appreciate.Ã The price can go down!Ã I have seen it with the houses of my relatives and my friends.Ã They are stuck with it, for selling it would incur a loss.



In fact, Robert Kiyosaki cautioned that capital gain investing model alone is risky.Ã Instead, he advocated Cash flow investment model.Ã Ã Robert Kiyosaki,Ã in his Yahoo Finance column,Ã explained cash flow and capital gain this way:



One of the reasons I was able to retire at age 47, and my wife, Kim, at 37, was simply because we had enough cash flow coming in (primarily from our real estate investments). It wasn`t much ` about $10,000 a month ` but we only had about $3,000 in monthly expenses. That left us with $7,000 a month to do with as we pleased.Ã Ã



On the other hand, capital gains are when you buy a stock for a dollar, and it goes up to $10 so you make $9 a share. Or, you buy a house for $100,000, and it appreciates to $150,000. You sell it and make $50,000.
One of the reasons people do not become financially free is because most of them are focusing on capital gains rather than cash flow. Chasing capital gains alone is gambling ` not investing. Want proof? You don`t have to go back very far to find it: Between 2000 and 2003, millions of investors lost trillions of dollars in the stock market.



From what Robert Kiyosaki said, it seems the wiser choice is actually to go for cash flow model.Ã If you are going to buy real estate, then make sure it can generate cash flow or income for you.Ã You only buy real estate primarily for the purpose of collect rents from it.Ã If you are invest into stocks, then go for dividend paying stock or income generating securities like bonds and REITs.



However, it does not means that we should not go for capital gain at all.à The main point here is that capital gain alone is risky.à If you retirement plan is solely based on capital gain investing model, the stake is going to be very high for you, for there is no guarantee that at your retirement age, the value of your investmentà has appreciated.



Robert Kiyosaki agreed that:



The key to financial intelligence is how to use both cash flow and capital gains to grow wealthy. So many people are not successful, because they`re generally focusing on only one of the two. Theà majority is focusing on capital gains.
A simple example of how to use both cash flow and capital gains is buying a piece of real estate that has potential for appreciation in value and renting it out.Ã You have cash flow from the monthly rent you collected and in event that the property has appreciated to a certain value, you can realized the gain by selling it.Ã You get the best of both world!



http://www.richdadwisdom.com/?p=46
 

Dan_Eisenhauer

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Jack, I am curious to know what your background is.

What is your education and work experience?

How long have you been a real estate investor? What kind of properties do you invest in? Where do you invest? How many doors do you own right now? What are your investment plans for the next two years?
 

Jack

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QUOTE Jack, I am curious to know what your background is.

What is your education and work experience?

B.Comm - Accounting (Hons.), CGA. I work in Financial Corporate Reporting for a major public company in Calgary.

QUOTE How long have you been a real estate investor? What kind of properties do you invest in? Where do you invest? How many doors do you own right now? What are your investment plans for the next two years?

1) 2 years, I guess. I`ve never really labeled myself as a "real estate investor". High-level economics really interests me, as does real estate.

2) I like to invest in properties in desirable areas that appear to be undervalued.

3) All of my holdings are in Calgary - though that`s not where I`d like to invest right now.

4) I own a whopping 2
doors!
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(not including the rear entrance and/or the garage
style_emoticons
)

5) I`m actually planning on moving to the Caribbean in June of `09, to be with my fiancee who`s attending medical school there. It`ll just be for one year, and then we`re off to the U.S.A., likely New York. The area that I`d like to focus on is multi-family dwellings, absolutely. I suppose my goal would be to somehow align myself with a realtor(s) in the area(s) that I`d like to invest in, and have him/her present me with any opportunities that I can`t see myself on ICX or any FSBO site. Prestigious Properties` business plan of "C" class buildings in "B" class neighbourhoods makes perfect sense to me, and it`s something that I feel I`d have a relatively easy time explaining the value/benefits to investors. That`s very likely the route I`ll take, and I`ll have a lot more time to actually focus on building a real business
while having no time commitments in the Caribbean whatsoever (besides surfing, of course
style_emoticons
).
 

Dan_Eisenhauer

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LOL. I am glad you have a sense of humour. Thanks for sharing your information with us.

Your goal is very achievable. I am sure it will be easy to find knowledgeable Realtors to help you reach it, no matter where you end up.
 

Thomas Beyer

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QUOTE (Jack @ Nov 21 2008, 07:14 PM) ...

Prestigious Properties` business plan of "C" class buildings in "B" class neighbourhoods makes perfect sense to me, and it`s something that I feel I`d have a relatively easy time explaining the value/benefits to investors. That`s very likely the route I`ll take, and I`ll have a lot more time to actually focus on building a real business ...

noted .. indeed a proven strategy !

be mindful that in the US (unlike Canada) there are some real class D neighborhoods .. so called war- (or gang-) zones .. so in our property analysis form for the US the first question is: "Do you feel safe leaving the car ?" .. if not .. leave w/o bothering to look at the property ..
 
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