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April 2015 Canadian Economic Fundamentals

Ally

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Exploring the federal budget's economic outlook

OTTAWA — At a time of economic uncertainty, the Harper government has delivered a budget that contains a whack of projections based in large part on private-sector forecasts predicting better days ahead.

As a result, the assumptions in the budget – the government’s first balanced fiscal plan in years – prompt one question in particular: What could possibly go wrong?

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Ally

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Canadian producers a long
way from Saudi prince's observation of 'excellent' oil market


Excellence, like beauty, is evidently in the eye of the beholder.

The assessment from Saudi Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman this week that global oil markets are in “excellent” condition is unlikely to be echoed when Canada’s oil and gas producers begin to report financial results Wednesday after a bruising first quarter.

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Ally

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8 months ago, we started to warn about potential pain
that comes with the end of the current Softwood Lumber. and now


Canada's lumber producers fear the softwood lumber agreement with the United States will be allowed to expire in October, ending nine years of stability.

"As the period leading up to the softwood lumber agreement's expiry narrows, the likelihood of an extension or replacement occurring is reduced," West Fraser Timber (TSX:WFT) noted in its first-quarter report.

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Ally

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Degree of housing overvaluation not unusual, no risk of bubble

Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz said on Tuesday it was not unusual to see an overvaluation in home prices given the market's long rally but reiterated the country was not in the midst of a housing bubble.

The central bank has estimated the housing market is overvalued by 10 percent to 30 percent. Poloz said that is a by-product of the sector's strength since the global financial crisis, partly fueled by low interest rates.

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Ally

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House of Cards: Deconstructing Canada's housing market valuations

Is Canada’s housing market in a bubble? The question has lingered for years – ever since national home prices managed to defy a global real-estate correction. Observers, both domestic and foreign, continue to issue dire pronouncements about the health of the Canadian housing market. But those predictions vary wildly, with some saying the market is overvalued by as much as 60 per cent, while others say it could be undervalued by almost 10 per cent.

Of course, examining the housing market is a fuzzy science. Every analysis uses its own idea of how to measure the “fair value” of real estate. Some compare home prices to incomes, while others look at interest rates or population growth. One analysis even compares house prices to the value of Canadian exports.

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Ally

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Stats Can releases GDP numbers by province for 2014

Real gross domestic product (GDP) by industry increased in every province and territory except New Brunswick, Newfoundland and Labrador and Yukon in 2014. Nationally, real GDP by industry rose 2.4% in 2014.

Alberta led the provinces in 2014 with GDP growth of 4.4%. British Columbia also surpassed the national growth rate, while every other province was below. Northwest Territories recorded the strongest growth of any region at 6.8%.

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Ally

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Canada not facing a housing bubble: Poloz

OTTAWA — The governor of the Bank of Canada says he didn’t mean to surprise markets in recent months with his stunning interest-rate cut, worrying real estate projection and the grim adjective he chose to describe the country’s economic performance.

During testimony Tuesday before a parliamentary committee, Stephen Poloz was asked about his eyebrow-raising use of “atrocious” to describe the oil slump’s effect on the economy over the first three months of 2015.

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Ally

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"Stop drinking the Kool-Aid" and other real estate investing gems from Don R. Campbell

A wide range of women in the real estate investment game gathered in Vancouver April 27 to hear pearls of wisdom from Don Campbell, senior analyst at the Real Estate Investment Network and Canada’s foremost real estate investment author and adviser, . Campbell’s address to the Women Investing in Real Estate (WIRE) Meetup was characteristically packed with no-nonsense, sometimes eyebrow-raising, tips for those wishing to succeed in real estate investment. He summarized advice nuggets that he wished somebody had told his younger self when he started out investing in property.

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