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New Infill houses - out of reach for buyer

KimAlex

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I have been watching many new infill houses around the old neighborhood ( Bonnie Doon, Forest height, Holyrood, Strathearn..) here in Edmonton for awhile, the houses were mainly duplexes asking price range from $550k to for as much as $850k per unit. Many unlist from MLS after so many months with no buyer and hold off while other change realtor countless time to find a buyer.
They were left empty for at least 8 months now since completion. Am not sure who, if any will buy a duplex at such steep price. Anyone care to share their thought on this.



http://www.edmontonjournal.com/aver...using+reach+most+families/11007524/story.html
 

Matt Crowley

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I met Kevin a couple of weeks ago. Really nice, funny guy. Doesn't own a car, moves around entirely via public transportation. He owns two homes in Old Strathcona now.

There are so many problems, and I have been engaged on the industry and community side of this. From the industry side, the argument always is that more regulations mean higher cost which means less affordability. There has been lots of concern regarding height and setback requirements. There are some silly things that need to be remedied like how front porches and enclosed staircases count towards the buildable footprint of the house. They shouldn't and that needs to be changed.

From the community side, the standards are a bit of free for all. The zoning says here is the box you can build inside the box: go for it. Edmonton has taken the stance that there is no such thing as character. There is going to be some changes in historical areas like Glenora but not on a city-wide basis. In Ottawa for example, the rules for character come from the street you build on. No such rules in Edmonton. Wild west.

As far as displacement, it is really undeniable that infill has not resulted in more affordability. In fact, skinny homes have hurt affordability across the city. It has, however, rebuilt a lot of homes that were in tear down state. But it has come at a cost. These tall homes are often built in older neighbourhoods (for Edmonton older here means 50 - 80 years old) which are predominately bungalow massing. Infill tends to be much taller and skinnier. This constrains solar access, adds a lot more massing to the street, has not considered its ventilation outputs, has led to foundation heaves in several instances for existing neighbours, ignored neighbour's privacy as the top level balcony look down someone's backyard and provide them with no privacy. They have cut driveways into the front drive when the rest of the street is rear lane. Some of these issues will be remedied with this iteration of the mature neighbourhood overlay. Most remain outstanding. Good discussion of some infill issues by EFCL (Edmonton Federation of Community Leagues): http://efcl.org/res/sept-2015-efcl-construction-issues-report.pdf

The issue is not as simple as stop infill though. Some of the problems stem from a few bad builders. Edmonton is lucky to have some talented infill designers. Some solutions that would work to everyone's benefit are simply not allowed do to zoning constraints and outdated zoning code. For anyone actually interested in infill, I encourage you to vote for the People's Choice Award for best Edmonton Infill Design Competition: http://edmontoninfilldesign.ca/peopleschoice/

In July, I ran a community event to gauge some sentiment on infill in southeast Edmonton. We had 76 attendees at the event, so definitely an important issue to the community. Eventually, we presented a few priorities to city council.

The problem in my view is that Edmonton has not established a baseline community value contribution that infill needs to make. I don't think Edmonton understands what infill does and what the goal of it really is. The communication piece around it has been really terrible.

It clearly constrains affordability. Even for those who argue increase the value of my home, who cares... you are not thinking about the seniors who live on a fixed income and some who cannot afford the 30% property tax increase when infill takes off in areas like Bonnie Doon and are effectively forced out of their homes. They have lived their lives in the community and there are not always nearby options to relocate.

More to your question, builders want to make as much money as possible so will wait on the home selling. (Nothing wrong with that) There are only a handful of comparable properties. They have large margins in the realm of $100k minimum per build so they can wait for the right buyer.
 

Kir Luong

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The article states, "Enos often works in Bonnie Doon, where skinny homes are popular. Teardowns go for $370,000 to $410,000 and it costs the new homeowner at least $350,000 to build."

It seem strange because : construction (350K) + land value does not seem to be in the range of 370 to 410K. Land seems too cheap in this case. Something strange.

In one rental I have (corner lot RF3), one developer states 250K (construction cost) is doable per unit if done right with good weather, even with a garage (However, this area is north of new Roger's Place...cheaper area).

The issue of Affordability...370 to 410K in Boonie doon sound good to me. I would personally buy (so close to downtown..could bike or jog to work!).
 

Matt Crowley

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Those numbers are wrong though. Teardowns are now closer to $400,000. That probably will not give you a 50 x 150 lot either. Check out MLS and see.

Just as a talking point on current home build prices in greenfield... Carrington, Landmark, and Rohit have townhomes with garages below $300,000. They pay $80 - $100 per lot so can build and profit in $200k. Detached homes across the city in greenfield are being offered for a hair over $300,000 and those lots are closer to $120k so they can build and profit for $180k.

If lot costs $400,000 and entry level production housing costs $180,000 for detached then you are at $580,000 entry level. This is why infill displaces a lot of existing community members. The economics for one for one infill demand displacement.
 

Kir Luong

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Thanks Matt,
I'm going to research more on details of construction cost. Maybe even take a course on development. Also keep us inform of the changes to the mature overlay . I also keep track of the infill news and the zoning and mature overlay revisions.

In a different note, displacement in the face of revitalization usually is good for investors...isn't this what we call gentrification?
 

Courtney Hammond

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As a side note of consideration- the lot usually still contains a tear down- so you have to account for the removal of the old house- many which will need asbestos removal- it can be very costly.

Only throwing it out there as "construction costs" would not include the house removal costs and prepping the lot.
 

Matt Crowley

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@Courtney Hammond yes exactly. Also servicing / adjusting lot services is in the $10,000 range.

I'm going to research more on details of construction cost. Maybe even take a course on development. Also keep us inform of the changes to the mature overlay . I also keep track of the infill news and the zoning and mature overlay revisions.

I got an advance copy of proposed changes this morning. If you want to be in the loop the best route is through IDEA (Infill Development in Edmonton Association http://www.infilledmonton.com/). Lots of talent there with some great professionals. Proposed changes will be released in a couple days but the highlights are 0.3m increase in height, possibly allowing rear attached garages (I think this is great for seniors), and city has decided that "character" means boulevard trees and no more front drive garages when rear lane is available. Architecturally, they are proposing required articulation for duplexes and three finishing materials. Articulation idea for duplexes is totally stupid, it is the city's olive branch to maniacal community members. No articulation duplexes sell great in greenfield and are a long part of our historical building inventory. Bad idea. Finishing materials is not a bad idea. The big move I see in this iteration is clarifying when the builder needs to provide notification and the city will act as clearinghouse for the information depending on the variance. Moving responsibility from builder to city to provide notification. I think everyone should be on board with that one. Lots of positive changes. There is some wording around verandas but the required setbacks will make the proposed changes anemic. Hopefully can refine with more consultation.

In a different note, displacement in the face of revitalization usually is good for investors...isn't this what we call gentrification?

Good question! I think the answer is yes, it is usually good for investors.

If the world was only made of low density single family homes and where government is hands off completely, displacing poorer people and rebuilding the neighbourhood for richer people will increase property values. Outprice poor people with rents that are rising and seniors with property taxes they can no longer afford they will move out in this world. This is why gentrification has become a dirty word in the U.S. . Enough of this happens and there become new rules like inclusionary zoning or you create slums within cities.

My answer would be that putting a low density $800,000 home in Bonnie Doon where a $400,000 home stood previously is not necessarily the highest and best use of that land. We have the U of A french university nearby and a lot of aging seniors in the area. Perhaps best use of the land is a four or eight plex. Maybe it is a seniors bungalow complex. Maybe it is two skinnies. Maybe it is a house with a laneway house at rear. The price per unit in the building may be higher or lower than the median. A mix of redevelopment with both is healthy.

I don't have a bone against infill in terms of take down $400,000 home and build $800,000 home, I think it is a necessary and important part of the range of product offerings that need to be provided by the housing industry. Right now, the market that it can serve is so narrow and we don't have the right processes in place to build a healthier mix of housing that reflect the current community demographic. Denser communities have better amenities, transportation, and recreation options. The schools will stay open.

I think if you look longer term, displacement will hurt the city and the community. It will also bring a bad reputation to infill builders - who are not necessarily to blame for pushing the residents of the community out. The political will changes from where we are right now that basement suites are being considered in duplexes to...those dirty investors don't care about anything but lining their pockets and pushing out everyone who used to live here and city council doesn't want to allow the basement suites. This ushers in more regulations on infill builders which pushes up the prices even more...but for all the regulations is more inclusive housing being built? If investors want to reap the benefits of gentrification long-term, it needs to be in collaboration with the city to help develop a range of product types.
 
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KimAlex

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Good discussion.This is really good information, Matt. Thank you.
 

Thomas Beyer

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Rezoning an area from expensive wide old SFH to skinnier modern cheaper infills is far easier than a blanket rezoning to four or eight or twelve-plex condos !

Likely we need both for more affordable density in most cities. Vancouver, for example has almost no infills or even row houses and that (lack of density or even rowhouses, townhouses or infills) is one of the many reasons for its very high prices.
 
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Matt Crowley

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^ Yes. And that is the supply chain problem. MNO is not bad when it comes to townhomes but for a condos, adult duplexes, lane housing (not just garage suites) it is pretty hopeless right now.

Skinny infills are not cheaper, ever than the existing home before even with a lot split. At least from what I have seen in Edmonton.
 

kfort

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Locally (Saskatoon) cost is $10,000/ lot serviced. Splitting one into 2 comes with $20,000 total for new sewer / water service install. Fun stuff.
 
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